Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved. Trading With The BIG Money The COT Report
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1 Trading With The BIG Money The COT Report
2 Brief Intro To The Futures Market
3 Brief Intro To The Futures Market A market in which participants buy and sell commodity/future contracts for delivery on a specified future date Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
4 Brief Intro To The Futures Market A market in which participants buy and sell commodity/future contracts for delivery on a specified future date The underlying assets can be physical commodities, currencies, securities or intangible financial instruments Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
5 Brief Intro To The Futures Market A market in which participants buy and sell commodity/future contracts for delivery on a specified future date The underlying assets can be physical commodities, currencies, securities or intangible financial instruments Trading is conducted through open outcry in the pits or electronically Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
6 Futures Market Participants
7 Futures Market Participants Commercials Non-Commercials Small Speculators Spread Traders Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
8 Futures Market Participants Commercials Non-Commercials Small Speculators Spread Traders Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
9 The Commercials
10 The Commercials a.k.a. Hedgers Use futures and options to hedge price risk associated with their business Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
11 The Commercials a.k.a. Hedgers Use futures and options to hedge price risk associated with their business Not in the Futures Market to speculate Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
12 The Commercials a.k.a. Hedgers Use futures and options to hedge price risk associated with their business Not in the Futures Market to speculate In the physical commodity markets, they are the Producers or Consumers Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
13 The Commercials a.k.a. Hedgers Use futures and options to hedge price risk associated with their business Not in the Futures Market to speculate In the physical commodity markets, they are the Producers or Consumers Tend to move in the opposite direction to the market Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
14 The Commercials a.k.a. Hedgers Use futures and options to hedge price risk associated with their business Not in the Futures Market to speculate In the physical commodity markets, they are the Producers or Consumers Tend to move in the opposite direction to the market Control up to 80% of market liquidity Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
15 The Commercials a.k.a. Hedgers Use futures and options to hedge price risk associated with their business Not in the Futures Market to speculate In the physical commodity markets, they are the Producers or Consumers Tend to move in the opposite direction to the market Control up to 80% of market liquidity Most bullish at market bottoms and most bearish at tops Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
16 The Non-Commercials
17 The Non-Commercials a.k.a. Large Speculators Professional traders exceeding the CTFC reporting limits Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
18 The Non-Commercials a.k.a. Large Speculators Professional traders exceeding the CTFC reporting limits Hedge Funds; Commodity Funds; Pension Funds Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
19 The Non-Commercials a.k.a. Large Speculators Professional traders exceeding the CTFC reporting limits Hedge Funds; Commodity Funds; Pension Funds Typically trend followers Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
20 The Non-Commercials a.k.a. Large Speculators Professional traders exceeding the CTFC reporting limits Hedge Funds; Commodity Funds; Pension Funds Typically trend followers Often on the wrong side of the market at tops and bottoms Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
21 The Non-Reportables
22 Non-Reportables a.k.a. Small Speculators, Dumb Money Market participants that do not exceed the CFTC reportable limit Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
23 Non-Reportables a.k.a. Small Speculators, Dumb Money Market participants that do not exceed the CFTC reportable limit Usually on the wrong side of the market at tops and bottoms Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
24 What Is The COT Report?
25 What Is The COT Report The Commitment Of Traders Report is published every Friday at EST by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) It can be downloaded free of charge at The CFTC collects volume and open interest information from the largest players in each commodity market First published in 1924 Currency Futures traded since 1972 Published weekly since 2000 Data represents the open interest as of the previous Tuesday market close Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
26 Trading The Euro With The COT Report
27 What Is The COT Report
28 What Is The COT Report
29 What Is The COT Report
30 What Is The COT Report
31 What Is The COT Report + + =
32 What Is The COT Report + =
33 What Is The COT Report
34 What Is The COT Report Speculators are net long
35 What Is The COT Report Speculators are net long Commercials are net short
36 What Is The COT Report Speculators are net long Commercials are net short Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved. Commercials are more net short than the previous week
37 EUR Spliced Futures Weekly Chart courtesy of timingcharts.com
38 EUR Spliced Futures Weekly Commercials Chart courtesy of timingcharts.com
39 EUR Spliced Futures Weekly Chart courtesy of timingcharts.com Commercials Large Specs Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
40 EUR Spliced Futures Weekly Chart courtesy of timingcharts.com Commercials Large Specs Small Specs Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
41 EUR Spliced Futures Weekly Chart courtesy of timingcharts.com Commercials Large Specs Small Specs Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
42 EURUSD Spot Weekly
43 EURUSD Spot Weekly
44 Commercials EURUSD Spot Weekly
45 Commercials Large + Small Specs EURUSD Spot Weekly
46 Commercials Large + Small Specs EURUSD Spot Weekly
47 Commercials Large + Small Specs EURUSD Spot Weekly
48 Commercials Large + Small Specs EURUSD Spot Weekly
49 Commercials Large + Small Specs EURUSD Spot Weekly
50 The COT Oscillator Formula (Last Close Lowest Low Over 104 Periods) (Highest High Over 104 Periods Lowest Low Over 104 Periods) x 100 Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
51 The COT Oscillator Formula (Last Close Lowest Low Over 104 Periods) (Highest High Over 104 Periods Lowest Low Over 104 Periods) Interpretation 100 Close is equal to the highest high over the previous two years 50 Close is halfway between the highest high and the lowest low over the previous two years 0 Close is equal to the lowest low over the previous two years x 100 Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
52 EURUSD Spot Weekly
53 EURUSD Spot Weekly
54 EURUSD Spot Weekly
55 EURUSD Spot Weekly
56 EURUSD Spot Weekly
57 EURUSD Spot Weekly
58 EURUSD Spot Weekly
59 EURUSD Spot Weekly
60 EURUSD Spot Weekly
61 EURUSD Spot Weekly
62 In Conclusion The Futures Market leads the Cash Market
63 In Conclusion The Futures Market leads the Cash Market Unlike Spot FX, transaction volume information is provided by the Futures Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
64 In Conclusion The Futures Market leads the Cash Market Unlike Spot FX, transaction volume information is provided by the Futures At tops and bottoms, the Commercials are sometimes early but never late Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
65 In Conclusion The Futures Market leads the Cash Market Unlike Spot FX, transaction volume information is provided by the Futures At tops and bottoms, the Commercials are sometimes early but never late Once the trend has changed, follow the Specs Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
66 In Conclusion The Futures Market leads the Cash Market Unlike Spot FX, transaction volume information is provided by the Futures At tops and bottoms, the Commercials are sometimes early but never late Once the trend has changed, follow the Specs Look for divergence at price extremes Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
67 In Conclusion The Futures Market leads the Cash Market Unlike Spot FX, transaction volume information is provided by the Futures At tops and bottoms, the Commercials are sometimes early but never late Once the trend has changed, follow the Specs Look for divergence at price extremes The COT Report is NOT a timing tool: use other techniques to enter and exit trades Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
68 Resources Websites: Further Reading: Larry Williams: Trade Stocks And Commodities With The Insiders: Secrets Of The COT Report Contact Details: Copyright 2013 Kevin Barry. All rights reserved.
69
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