Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Study

Transcription

1 FINAL Report Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Study by IBI Group October 31, 2016

2 Table of Contents 1 Introduction Executive Summary Proposed Redevelopment and Purpose of Study Background Documents Financial Impact Analysis Capital Impact Assessment Operating Impact Analysis Operating Revenues Property Taxes Non Tax Revenues Building Permits Operating Expenditures Annual Operating Costs Capital from Current Development Charge Statutory Deduction Annual Operating Impact Absorption Annual Revenues Annual Expenditures Annual Operating Impact Results Operating Impact at Buildout Operating Revenues Summary Operating Expenditure Summary Buildout of the Proposed Redevelopment- Operating Impact Results Conclusions i

3 Table of Contents (continued) List of Figures Figure 1: Glen Abbey Redevelopment Plan... 2 Figure 2: Redevelopment Details... 3 Figure 3: Property Tax Calculation Figure 4: Municipal Building Permit Revenues Figure 5: Development Charges Discounted Services Figure 6: Redevelopment Phasing and Absorption Summary Figure 7: Redevelopment Phasing Strategy Figure 8: Annual Municipal Revenue Figure 9: Annual Municipal Expenditures Figure 10: Annual Municipal Impact Results Figure 11: Municipal Operating Revenues Figure 12: Municipal Operating Expenditures List of Appendices Appendix A: Development Phasing Strategy Appendix B: Town of Oakville Financial Impact Model Appendix C: MPAC Dwelling Information Comparable Property Assessments Appendix D: Calculation of Property Tax Revenue Appendix E: Non-Tax revenues Town of Oakville Appendix F: Net Operating Expenditures - Town of Oakville Appendix G: Development Charges Municipal Revenue and Expenditure Calculation Appendix H: Operating Cash Flow Analysis Appendix I: Operating Impact Summary at Build Out Appendix J: Development Application Guidelines Financial Impact Study ii

4 1 Introduction 1.1 Executive Summary This study examines the financial impact of the proposed redevelopment of the Glen Abbey Golf Club in the Town of Oakville. The findings are based on site information provided by ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited as well as research and analysis undertaken by IBI Group. The proposed concept plan comprises 3,222 residential units including single detached homes, traditional as well as stacked townhomes, and apartments. In addition, the concept plan also includes retail space, service office space. As well, the existing RayDor Estate building is to remain office space and is excluded from the redevelopment application and this analysis. The concept plan was designed to integrate into the existing community fabric while providing natural linkages, park space and a variety of lot sizes that provide a natural transition from larger single family lots to a diverse offering of housing. For the financial impact, the analysis estimates local municipal financial contributions and cost requirements related to the proposed redevelopment. Financial Impact The capital impact of the proposed redevelopment is discussed in a separate IBI Group report, Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment: Capital Impact Assessment, (Capital Impact Assessment), October 31, The proposed redevelopment would have the following operating impact implications. Operating Revenues o o Based on the current building permit rates, at completion the proposed redevelopment would generate an overall one-time revenue totalling $6.9 million. The assessed value of the proposed redevelopment at build out is estimated at just over $1 billion. Annual property tax revenue at build out is estimated at $5.8 million. Additionally, annual non tax revenue attributed to the proposed development is $620,000. Combined, the anticipated revenue for the Town is estimated at $6.5 million at build out. Operating Expenditures o In total, the proposed redevelopment will generate $45.90 million in development charges based on the 2016 rates. The Town will be responsible for $2.04 million due to a 10% statutory deduction in certain DC services. o Municipal operating costs attributed to the proposed development totals $4.95 million. This includes operating expenditures totalling $4.77 million. An additional contribution of 3.8% attributed to capital from current, which is a dollar amount set aside to deal with capital items, adds approximately $182,000. Net Operating Impacts o At a mature state, the annual operating surplus is estimated at $1.50 million (i.e., operating revenue operating expenditures). 1

5 o It is estimated that each phase of the redevelopment will result in a positive financial impact, combining to generate a $14.8 million surplus over the duration of the project. 1.2 Proposed Redevelopment and Purpose of Study ClubLink Corporation ULC and ClubLink Holdings Limited are proposing that the 92.7 ha Glen Abbey golf course be redeveloped for residential, retail and office development as well as open space uses. The proposed redevelopment envisions approximately 3,222 residential units and 121,000 sf of new commercial space being added to the Glen Abbey Community in the Town of Oakville (excluding the existing RayDor Estate). In the Town of Oakville s development application guideline, a financial impact study and a capital impact assessment are required for development proposals south of Dundas Street which include two or more residential units or more than 4,000 square meters of non-residential floor area. The analysis carried out in this report fulfils the financial impact study requirements for the Town. A separate IBI Group report, Capital Impact Assessment, fulfils the capital impact assessment requirements. Figure 1: Glen Abbey Redevelopment Plan 2

6 Figure 2: Redevelopment Details The land use information relevant to the municipal operating impact analysis includes the following: Residential Single Detached Dwellings (lot Width's) Number of Units Estimated Population Single Detached - 30' Single Detached - 32' 2 7 Single Detached - 40' Single Detached - 43' Single Detached - 50' 5 17 Single Detached - 60' Townhouse Units Townhouse Stacked Townhouse Apartment Units Apartments 2,782 5,091 Total Units and Population 3,222 6,344 Employment Retail and Office Total Sq. Ft FSW (sf) 1 Total Employees Retail 62, Office 58, RayDor Estate 50, Work at Home # of Residents Work at Home Rate 2 Total - Work at Home Work at Home 6, % 330 Total Employment 673 People per Unit 3 Singles 3.48 Towns 2.55 Apts 1.83 Notes 1 The floor space per worker totals includes a 10% vacancy rate 2 Source: Town of Oakville Development Charges Background Study (DCBS); Schedule 9A 3 PPU's from the DCBS page A-6 The redevelopment details are used to determine the impacts of the planned subdivision at a mature state or build out. However the terms of reference also states that a projection of each of the planned phases of development, if applicable, for both operating and capital components to show that the approvals being requested are in the public interest and not premature pursuant to the Planning Act. To fulfil this requirement a phasing strategy was prepared and analyzed to 3

7 determine the impacts of the redevelopment on an annual basis. The phasing strategy is found in Appendix A. 1.3 Background Documents In undertaking this analysis, a range of assumptions has been made which refer to various documents. For example, the Town of Oakville 2013 Development Charges Background Study was used for estimating, among other things, the allocation of operating costs as between residential and non-residential uses, the 10% municipal contribution mandated by the Development Charges Act 1997, and persons per unit (PPU). Additionally, IBI Group relied on the 2014 Financial Information Return (FIR) submitted annually to the Province, in order to estimate operating expenditures and non-tax revenues on a per capita and job basis FIR indexed by the Ontario Consumer Price Index to

8 2 Financial Impact Analysis 2 The financial impact analysis shown in this section is based on the review of the following components: 1) Capital Impact 3 2) Operating Impact a. Annual Operating Impact b. Operating Impact at Buildout 2.1 Capital Impact Assessment A separate IBI Group Report, Capital Impact Assessment, deals with the capital impact implications of the proposed redevelopment and capital infrastructure required for the redevelopment. The key findings of Capital Impact Assessment are as follows: The majority of the proposed capital infrastructure will be a direct developer responsibility according to the local service guidelines in the Town s 2013 DCBS. The costs of the proposed capital infrastructure that may not be directly funded by the developer amounts to $4.76 million and includes the following Services. o o o Transit Improvement; Recreational Trail Development; and Parkland Development and Programming. Of the identified capital costs of $4.76 million, $4.28 million would be funded either through development charges or front-end agreements with the developer. In the latter case, funded amounts would be eligible for development charge credits. The Town will be responsible for $476,000, due to a 10% statutory deduction in certain DC Services. In the past, funding sources for the Town s non-dc eligible capital costs include operating fund, long-term financing and gas tax. The proposed redevelopment will generate a total of $45.1 million in development charges revenue for the Town, including $1.0 million for Public Transit and $16.0 million for Parks and Recreation. The Financial Impact Model spreadsheet required by the Town is included in Capital Impact Assessment and can also be found in Appendix B of this report. 2.2 Operating Impact Analysis IBI Group undertook an operating analysis which reviews the impacts of each phase of the redevelopment. The purpose of this analysis is to determine if there is a surplus or shortfall for each year of construction and the impacts at buildout. 2 The IBI Group operating impact analysis reflects values in 2016$. This analysis uses 2016 DC rates as posted on the City s website and calculates the DC revenue generated by the project at $45.9m. By comparison, the Capital Impact Assessment (under separate cover) is based on the Town s Financial Impact model which incorporates 2015 DC rates and calculates the DC revenue generated by the project at $45.1m. We note this as a point of clarification in the event that this discrepancy is raised. 3 See IBI Group, Capital Impact Assessment for assessment in detail. 5

9 The following format was adopted: Net Operating Position = Property Tax Revenues Plus: Non-Tax Revenues Plus: Building Permits Less: Operating Expenditure Less: Capital from Current Less: Municipal Development Charge Contribution Operating Revenues During the operating phase, from an ongoing basis revenues will largely be collected though property taxes, but revenues are also generated through non tax revenue (licenses, permits, rents, fines, penalties and donations) which are calculated on a per capita and per job basis. In addition the redevelopment will contribute one time building permit revenues to the municipality Property Taxes Property tax generation will be the largest revenue source to the municipality throughout the duration of the redevelopment. Property assessment information was collected for the purpose of the property tax calculation. Property taxes are calculated by applying the property tax rate to a dwelling s assessed value. Property Assessments (Current Value Assessment CVA) Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) assessment information was collected for Oakville properties estimated to be comparable to the proposed development. IBI Group collected 68 comparable properties for the various dwelling types, commercial uses and office uses. The assessments are based on a 2012 market value with a 2016 phased in assessment. Sample photos are included in the body of the report; details are provided in Appendix C. Single Detached Dwellings The proposed development includes a total of 141 single detached dwellings. The lot widths range from 30 to 60. To account for the different lot sizes and potential dwelling square footage, 7 comparable assessments were collected for each different lot width. IBI Group focused on homes that were completed within the last decade and had similar characteristics to the proposed development. The estimated value of the proposed homes on the subject site range from an average of $570,700 for 30 lot widths to an average of $1,027,900 for 60 lot widths Hilda Drive Skipton Lane Ribble Cres 61 6

10 Townhomes 109 townhomes are included in the proposed development. Comparable properties for townhomes are found in north Oakville, a strip of townhomes off Millbank Drive, two townhouse developments just south of Glen Abbey and townhomes located at the northeast corner of Great Lakes Boulevard and Nautical Boulevard. In total IBI Group collected assessment information from 7 townhouse developments. Based on these assessments the townhomes proposed on the subject site each will have an average value of $490,300. Vellwood Common Old Brompton Way 1169 Dorval Drive Stacked Townhomes The subject site proposes 190 stacked townhouse units mostly found on the south eastern portion of the site. Due to a limited supply of existing stacked townhomes in Oakville, IBI Group relied on assessment information from a recently completed stacked townhouse subdivision at the south east corner of Dundas Street East and Sixth Line and a comparable property found in Etobicoke just north of Carnation Drive. Based on the limited assessments available, it is estimated that the average value of each stacked townhouse will be $295, Hays Blvd 30 Carnation Avenue 2579 Sixth Line 7

11 Apartments The proposed development includes 2,782 apartment units in buildings ranging from four to twelve storeys in height. IBI Group collected assessment information from six apartment buildings located in Oakville resulting in an estimated average value of $268,600 per apartment. The buildings that were reviewed are mainly located in the northern parts of Oakville in the Uptown Core and south of Dundas St E at Prince Michael Drive. Commercial 2325 Central Park Dr 2480 Prince Michael Dr 2301 Parkhaven Blvd The subject site proposes 62,900 sf of commercial space found on first floor retail locations. IBI Group collected assessment information from various commercial locations in Oakville. These commercial establishments offer characteristics similar to the commercial components proposed in the Glen Abbey redevelopment. Based on the comparable assessments an estimated average value of $314 per square foot is anticipated for the commercial retail space Old Bronte Rd 231 Oak Park Blvd 2379 Trafalgar Rd 8

12 Office The proposed development includes a total 58,400 sf of office/service retail space found in ground floor and second floor offices. Due to the lack of comparable office locations in Oakville, IBI Group relied on office assessments from three locations. The offices reviewed are found at the northwest corner of Taunton Road and Oak Park Boulevard, southwest of Dundas Street West and Old Bronte Road and the Trafalgar Professional Centre. These three assessments totalled an average of $252 per square foot. Source: Google Earth Street View Property Taxes 231 Oak Park Blvd 2495 Old Bronte Rd 1235 Trafalgar Rd As noted, IBI Group has relied on MPAC property assessment information to determine property taxes. Property tax rates are applied to the assessed values of homes and establishments to generate property taxes collected by the Town, Region and School Board. Based on the 2016 phased in assessment, the Town of Oakville will collect $5.8 million in property taxes annually at build out. Additionally, Halton Region will collect $5.4 million and the Province of Ontario (Ministry of Education) will collect $3.6 million. Figure 3 displays the property tax totals for each land use by dwelling type. Appendix D provides more detail on the property tax calculation and the rates used. 9

13 Figure 3: Property Tax Calculation # of Units or sf Estimated Municipal Property Tax Estimated Regional Property Tax Estimated Provincial Property Tax Total Property Tax Dwelling Type Single Detached - 30' 52 $98,263 $90,897 $56,375 $245,534 Single Detached - 32' 2 $4,395 $4,066 $2,522 $10,982 Single Detached - 40' 27 $66,270 $61,302 $38,020 $165,592 Single Detached - 43' 14 $38,309 $35,437 $21,978 $95,724 Single Detached - 50' 5 $15,068 $13,938 $8,645 $37,650 Single Detached - 60' 41 $139,535 $129,075 $80,053 $348,663 Townhouse 109 $176,954 $163,689 $101,521 $442,163 Stacked Townhouse 190 $185,853 $171,921 $106,626 $464,400 Apartments 1 bdr or bachelor 927 $1,628,336 $1,506,272 $934,198 $4,068,805 Apartments 2 bdr or more 1,855 $3,258,428 $3,014,168 $1,869,403 $8,141,999 Commercial Occupied 56,584 $86,391 $79,920 $154,011 $320,322 Commercial Vacant 6,287 $6,719 $6,216 $11,979 $24,914 Office Occupied 52,594 $64,304 $59,488 $114,636 $238,427 Office Vacant 5,844 $5,001 $4,627 $8,916 $18,544 RayDor Estates 50,000 $61,132 $56,553 $108,981 $226,667 Work at Home n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Total $5,834,956 $5,397,568 $3,617,862 $14,850, Non Tax Revenues Non-tax revenues, such as licenses, permits, payment in lieu of taxes, penalties and interest, are estimated based on information provided in the 2014 Financial Information Return (FIR) for the Town of Oakville and filed with the Ministry of Finance. 4 Only a portion of the Town s non-tax revenues are related to growth. A percentage is applied to each revenue category which approximates the non-tax revenue generated by each new resident or job. Appendix E provides a detailed breakdown of the calculation for non-tax revenues. Based on the analysis carried out, it is estimated that the proposed development will generate $93.5 per capita and $79.3 per employee in non-tax revenues, on an annual basis. At build out, the annual non tax revenue generated will total $620, Building Permits The Town of Oakville imposes building permits on new residential and non-residential development. The fee structure for building permits in Oakville is based on the total area of each type of building. 5 For the proposed development it is estimated that the average size of a single detached dwelling will range from 203 to 361 m 2. The estimated size for townhomes and stacked townhomes will be 185 m 2 and 95 m 2 respectively. 6 For apartments the estimated unit size is 1,184 sf per unit with a 10% increase to account for non-saleable space. The non-residential GFA for the development will include 62,900 sf (5,840 m 2 ) of retail space and 58,400 sf (5,430 m 2 ) of office space. Based on the anticipated GFA of the buildings it is estimated that the proposed development will generate $6.86 million ($2016) in building permit revenues over the duration of the project. The table below provides a summary. 4 Based on the Ontario CPI, a 2.7% inflation rate was applied to 2014 FIR to estimate a 2016 value. 5 Information collected from the Approved 2016 Town of Oakville Rates and Fees guide. 6 Estimated dwelling size is calculated from reviewing recent construction dwelling sizes in Oakville. 10

14 Figure 4: Municipal Building Permit Revenues Building Type Residential Single Detached Townhouse Apartment Estimated Number Dwelling Building Permit Building Permit of Units Size m 2 Total m 2 Fee (per m 2 ) Fee Lot Width - 30' ,563 $16.00 $169,014 Lot Width - 32' $16.00 $7,621 Lot Width - 40' ,953 $16.00 $111,252 Lot Width - 43' ,902 $16.00 $62,429 Lot Width - 50' ,565 $16.00 $25,038 Lot Width - 60' ,803 $16.00 $236,846 Townhouse ,137 $16.00 $322,196 Stacked Townhouse ,104 $16.00 $289,659 Apartments 2, ,613 $16.00 $5,385,813 Subtotal 3, ,418 $6,609,867 Non Residential Commercial New Shell Only 62,871 5,841 $15.60 $91,118 Interior Finish 62,871 5,841 $6.65 $38,842 Subtotal $129,960 Office New Shell Only - First Floor 12,451 1,157 $16.70 $19,318 New Shell Only - 2nd Floor (above retail) 45,987 4,272 $15.60 $66,648 Interior Finish 58,438 5,429 $5.50 $29,860 Subtotal $115,826 Grand Total $6,855, Operating Expenditures The operating expenditures provide an estimate of annual local municipal operating costs generated by the proposed redevelopment. The expenditures include municipal per capita operating costs and capital from current totals. In addition, the redevelopment will also have onetime operating costs for the 10% statutory deduction on development charges Annual Operating Costs Based on the Town s 2014 FIR, IBI Group calculated the operating costs associated with the redevelopment based on the proposed concept plan. 7 Appendix F illustrates the calculation for determining the average annual net operating costs. Appendix F identifies the total operating expenditures by category for the Town; these are then adjusted downward to take into account the long term debt and user fees/service charges, thus resulting in per capita operating expenditures. The analysis adjusts for fixed costs and focuses on the variable costs, which are affected by growth. Fixed costs include such things as the salaries that are not subject to change due to development. The allocation between residential or non-residential varies by category. (See Appendix F) Some categories are assessed on the basis of the ratio of population growth to employment growth, as per the Town s 2013 DC Background Study. In particular some costs such as recreation and cultural services, are oriented towards providing services to the resident population, and thus are allocated on a 95:5 ratio between residential and non-residential. The operating costs associated with the residential development are totalled and divided by the Town s population as of 2014 as noted in the 2014 FIR, to provide an operating cost per capita. Similarly the non-residential costs are summed and divided by the total jobs in the Town. The analysis yields an operating cost of $726.0 per capita and $475.5 per job. The detailed calculation is provided in Appendix F. 7 Based on the Ontario CPI, a 2.7% inflation rate was applied to 2014 FIR to estimate a 2016 value. 11

15 The estimated operating expenditures for the proposed redevelopment at buildout will amount to $4.8 million when the development is at a mature state Capital from Current Capital from current is the dollar amount set aside annually from the operating budget to deal with capital items. IBI Group has determined that the capital from current is approximately 3.8% of net operating expenditures based on an average of the Town s FIR reports from 2010 through 2014 for the Town of Oakville. This has been incorporated into the operating analysis by applying the calculated percentage of 3.8% to the estimated operating costs. In order to calculate the capital from current, IBI Group took the average total in the Capital Revenue Fund and divided that by the average Net Operating Expenditures (Total Expenditures User Fees Interest) for the period of 2010 to Through the timeframe analyzed, capital from current fluctuated from a low of 2.3% to a high of 6.8%. Based on the average through the 5 year time frame, the analysis produced the estimated capital from current of 3.8%. The estimated capital from current will amount to an annual expenditure of $182,000 when the development is at a mature state Development Charge Statutory Deduction New construction in the Town of Oakville is subject to lower and upper tier municipal development charges. Development charges are issued to fund growth related capital costs that service the new population. For the purpose of the report, the focus is on the Town of Oakville DCs. Based on current 2016 rates, the Glen Abbey redevelopment will generate $45.9 million in revenues for the Town of Oakville in order fund local municipal capital requirements. The Town of Oakville will need to fund a portion of capital projects due to a statutory deduction in development charges contributions for eligible infrastructure projects. In accordance with S.8(1) of the Development Charges Act (DCA), some DC capital costs must be reduced by 10%. The 10% reduction is to be covered by the municipality as a co-payment towards the proposed/planned services. Services included in the 10% reduction in development charges include public transit, municipal parking, parks and recreation, library services and general government as seen below. The rationale for the 10% co-payment under the DCA, is that these new growth related facilities also have some benefit to the existing population. Figure 5: Development Charges Discounted Services DISCOUNTED NON-DISCOUNTED Public Transit Services related to a Highway (Roads + ) Municipal Parking Fire Protection Services Parks and Recreation Library Services General Government Source: Town of Oakville Development Charges Background Study 12

16 In the context of the redevelopment of Glen Abbey, the discounted services will result in a onetime municipal co-payment estimated at $2.04 million (2016). It must be noted that due to changes in the Development Charges Act, the next iteration of development charges for Oakville will no longer have public transit included as a discounted service. This will result in the lowering of the municipality s DC co-payment to $1.92 million (2016). Refer to Appendix G for the detailed breakdown of the municipal development charge co-payment Annual Operating Impact Absorption The projected absorption of the redevelopment will inform the operating impact analysis, as the revenues and expenditures will be incurred at different times. The analysis assumes the municipality receives building permit revenue in the year of construction, and pays their development charge contribution for discounted services. The year of absorption is when the municipality will collect property taxes and non-tax revenues and also incur operating and capital from current expenditures. The absorption is based on the projected phasing schedule found in Appendix A. Below is a brief description of the absorption and phasing assumptions. The phasing strategy is conceptual and assumes single detached dwellings will be completed in the first and second phases of the redevelopment (2021 to 2023). For the purpose of estimating the operating impact these units will be absorbed one year after completion due to high demand for single detached housing in Oakville and the GTA. Traditional townhomes are expected to be completed within the first three phases of the redevelopment, stacked townhomes are phased-in at the end of the redevelopment in the third and fifth phases. Similar to singles, these types of units will be absorbed one year after completion due to high demand for ground related housing (years 2022 to 2036). Apartment completions are scattered throughout all five phases of the redevelopment with the bulk of the supply being constructed in the final three phases. These units will be absorbed two years after completion due to the large number of units coming into the market and potential early vacancy rates during the first two years of a buildings operation. (2023 to 2037) Non-residential uses include retail and office/service retail space in the ground and second floor of the mixed use buildings. These units will be incorporated in the fourth and fifth phases of the development and will include a two year time frame for absorption as some users will wait until full completion to occupy the space. In addition, there will be a 10% vacancy rate applied to nonresidential uses to reflect market factors. Figure 6 provides a summary of the anticipated completion and absorption timing for the redevelopment. 13

17 Figure 6: Redevelopment Phasing and Absorption Summary Phase Year of Construction Absorption - Non Res and Apartments Absorption - Res (excluding apartments) Total Singles Townhomes Stacked Townhomes Apartments ,782 Retail (sf) ,586 44, ,175 Office (sf) ,285 13,848 21,133 Total Res ,004 3,222 Total Non-Res (sf) ,871 58, ,308 Figure 7 provides a map of the phasing strategy showing the location of each phase. Figure 7: Redevelopment Phasing Strategy Annual Revenues On an annual basis, the proposed redevelopment will generate property tax revenues escalating to $5.8 million at buildout. Non tax revenue which is applied on a per capita or job basis escalates to $620,000 at buildout. Building permit revenue varies for each phase and ranges from $583,000 in phase 1 to $1.96 million in phase 5. Property tax and non-tax revenues are ongoing, the model applies them to the cumulative totals, building permits are a one-time fee, and therefore are applied once at the beginning of construction for each phase. 14

18 Municipal Revenue (in thousands$) Figure 8: Annual Municipal Revenue Property Tax Revenue Subtotal $61 $61 $61 $359 $423 $606 $1,323 $1,323 $1,323 $1,418 $2,876 $2,876 $2,876 $2,876 $4,139 $4,139 $4,139 $4,287 $5,835 Non Tax Revenue Subtotal $8 $8 $8 $47 $53 $78 $147 $147 $147 $168 $310 $310 $310 $310 $436 $436 $436 $469 $620 Building Permit Revenue Subtotal $0 $0 $583 $0 $1,107 $0 $0 $0 $1,761 $0 $0 $0 $1,446 $0 $0 $0 $1,958 $0 $0 Total Revenue $69 $69 $652 $406 $1,583 $684 $1,470 $1,470 $3,231 $1,586 $3,186 $3,186 $4,632 $3,186 $4,575 $4,575 $6,533 $4,755 $6,455 Operating Expenditures (in thousands$) Annual Expenditures Annually, at a mature state, in 2016 dollars, the proposed redevelopment s operating expenditures will be $4.77 million. Capital from current costs, which are applied to the operating expenditures, will be $182,000 annually at full buildout. The one time municipal development charge contributions will range from $154,000 in phase 1 to $620,000 in phase 5. Figure 9: Annual Municipal Expenditures Operating Expenditures Subtotal $48 $48 $48 $352 $400 $589 $1,131 $1,131 $1,131 $1,292 $2,395 $2,395 $2,395 $2,395 $3,343 $3,343 $3,343 $3,598 $4,769 Capital from Current % of Operating Costs # $2 $2 $2 $13 $15 $22 $43 $43 $43 $49 $91 $91 $91 $91 $128 $128 $128 $137 $182 Development Charges - Municipal Contribution Subtotal $0 $0 $154 $0 $321 $0 $0 $0 $555 $0 $0 $0 $387 $0 $0 $0 $620 $0 $0 Total Expenditures $49 $49 $204 $365 $736 $611 $1,174 $1,174 $1,729 $1,341 $2,486 $2,486 $2,873 $2,486 $3,470 $3,470 $4,091 $3,736 $4,951 Annual Financial Impact Results (in thousands$) Annual Operating Impact Results On an annual basis, by combining the revenues and the expenditures, the proposed redevelopment would result in an annual net positive operating impact for the Town of Oakville. Once construction begins the annual operating revenues will range from $69,000 to $6,533,000 while operating expenditures will range from $49,000 to $4,951,000. The annual net operating impact results in a surplus ranging from $20,000 to $2,442,000 as seen below in figure 10. A total cumulative surplus of $14.8 million will be seen from 2019 to 2037 for the Town of Oakville. Refer to Appendix H for the complete breakdown of the annual operating impact model based on the Glen Abbey redevelopment. Figure 10: Annual Municipal Impact Results Annual Surplus or Shortfall Cumulative Surplus or Shortfall $20 $20 $449 $41 $847 $73 $297 $297 $1,502 $245 $700 $700 $1,759 $700 $1,104 $1,104 $2,442 $1,020 $1,504 $20 $39 $488 $529 $1,376 $1,449 $1,746 $2,042 $3,544 $3,789 $4,489 $5,189 $6,948 $7,648 $8,752 $9,856 $12,298 $13,318 $14,822 15

19 2.2.4 Operating Impact at Buildout Operating Revenues Summary At build out/mature state the proposed development will generate a total of $6.46 million in local municipal operating revenues based on property tax and non-tax revenues. Figure 11 highlights the operating revenue calculation consolidating the revenues as mentioned above. Figure 11: Municipal Operating Revenues Town of Oakville Development Information Units or sf Population or Employees (1) Assessed Values (per unit or sf) Local Municipal Property Tax Municipal Revenues Non Tax Revenue (per capita or job) Non-Tax Revenues Total Revenues Residential Singles $775,051 $361,839 $93 $45, $407,713 Single Detached - 30' $570,714 $98,263 $93 $16,918 $115,181 Single Detached - 32' 2 7 $663,714 $4,395 $93 $651 $5,046 Single Detached - 40' $741,286 $66,270 $93 $8,784 $75,054 Single Detached - 43' $826,429 $38,309 $93 $4,555 $42,864 Single Detached - 50' 5 17 $910,143 $15,068 $93 $1,627 $16,694 Single Detached - 60' $1,027,857 $139,535 $93 $13,339 $152,874 Townhomes $490,306 $176,954 $93 $25,986 $202,940 Stacked Townhomes $295,427 $185,853 $93 $45,296 $231,149 Apartments 2,782 5,091 $268,594 $4,886,764 $93 $475,969 $5,362,732 Subtotal 3,222 6,344 $5,611,409 $593,125 $6,204,534 Non Residential Commercial Occupied 56, $314 $86,391 $79 $9,976 $96,366 Commercial Vacant 6,287 0 $314 $6,719 $79 $0 $6,719 Office Occupied 52, $252 $64,304 $79 $9,272 $73,576 Office Vacant 5,844 0 $252 $5,001 $79 $0 $5,001 RayDor Estates 50, $252 $61,132 $79 $7,933 $69,065 Work at Home n/a 330 n/a n/a n/a n/a $0 Subtotal 171, $223,547 $27,181 $250,729 Total $5,834,956 $620,306 $6,455, Operating Expenditure Summary Based on the municipal per capita operating costs and capital from current contributions the proposed development at a mature state will result in an annual operating cost of $4.95 million. Figure 12 summarizes the operating costs. 16

20 Figure 12: Municipal Operating Expenditures Development Information Local Municipal Expenditures Town of Oakville Residential Units or sf Population or Employees Operating Expenditures (per capita or job) Local Operating Expenditures (Total) Capital from Current (%) Capital from Current (Total) Total Expenditures Singles $726 $356,249 4% $13,602 $369,851 Townhomes $726 $201,800 4% $7,705 $209,505 Stacked Townhomes $726 $351,762 4% $13,431 $365,193 Apartments 2,782 5,091 $726 $3,696,268 4% $141,128 $3,837,396 Subtotal 3,222 6,344 $4,606,080 $175,866 $4,781,945 Non Residential Commercial Occupied 56, $476 $59,795 4% $2,283 $62,078 Commercial Vacant 6,287 0 $476 $0 4% $0 $0 Office Occupied 52, $476 $55,579 4% $2,122 $57,701 Office Vacant 5,844 0 $476 $0 4% $0 $0 RayDor Estates 50, $476 $47,554 4% $1,816 $49,370 Work at Home n/a 330 n/a n/a n/a n/a $0 Subtotal 171, $162,929 $6,221 $169,150 Total $4,769,008 $182,087 $4,951, Buildout of the Proposed Redevelopment- Operating Impact Results At buildout, combining the revenues and the expenditures, the proposed redevelopment would result in a combined net positive operating impact for the Town of Oakville. Based on the operating expenditures and revenues a total annual positive operating impact of $1.50 million is anticipated. 8 The residential portion of the development plays a significant role in the positive operating impact. From a per capita and per job perspective the development will result in a surplus of $224 and $121 respectively on an annual basis at mature state. Refer to Appendix I for a complete breakdown of the Operating Impact for Oakville based on the Glen Abbey development at mature state. 8 At build out, the operating expenditures and revenues will include estimated operating expenditures, capital from current, property tax revenues and non-tax revenues. In other words, building permit revenues and municipal development charge contribution are one time revenues and are not applicable on an ongoing basis. 17

21 3 Conclusions As shown in the Capital Impact Assessment, the majority of the proposed capital infrastructure is a direct developer responsibility, with approximately $4.76 million not being directly funded. Out of the total $4.76 million, the Town will be required to cover 10%, or $476,000. Development charges payable by the proposed redevelopment amounts to $45.1 million based on the Town s 2015 financial impact model. This can be compared with the estimated local DC expenditures of $4.28 million for eligible service within the proposed redevelopment. The surplus amount of approximately $40.9 million will accrue to the appropriate reserve fund to be spent throughout the Town, as increases in needs arise from new growth (including the proposed redevelopment) for services such as recreation centres, fire halls, libraries, etc. In regard to the operating impact for the Town, the proposed redevelopment will generate an annual surplus. Each phase of the proposed redevelopment will have a positive operating impact for the Town, creating a cumulative surplus of $14.8 million by the end of the construction period. An operating surplus will continue after the proposed redevelopment is at complete buildout. At buildout, an annual net operating surplus of $1.50 million is anticipated. 18

22 Appendices 19

23 Appendix A Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Municipal Operating Impact Development Phasing Strategy Glen Abbey Phasing & Estimated Timing Constructio n Phase SWM Tributary Area Master Plan Block # Singles Towns Stacked Towns Apartments Totals 1 B B B B Lots 89 Retail (sf) Office (sf) Cummula tive Totals Estimated Completi on Year Subtotal A A A A1 Lots 52 Subtotal C C C C C C C Subtotal , A A ,626 19,626 A ,132 A ,865 A ,963 24,963 Subtotal ,586 44,589 2, C C C ,285 13,848 C C C C C C Subtotal ,004 7,285 13,848 3, Totals ,782 3,222 62,871 58,437 Notes Assuming draft approval in 2019 Street A completion timing from Dorval to Upper Middle by 2024 or as required for traffic capacity SWM pond construction triggered by initial construction in each tributary area Based on housing absorption estimated at 200 units per year BH 30-Sep-16

24 Appendix B Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Course Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Town of Oakville Financial Impact Model A Identification 1 Name of Development Glen Abbey Redevelopment 2 Subdivision / Planning Number: 3 Community Location Glen Abbey Study Area 4 Date of Application 5 Description The subject site is currently located on Glen Abbey Golf Club located at 1333 Dorval Drive. The proposed plan would include 3,222 residential units, 62,900 sq.ft of retail space and 58,400 sq.ft of office space. The residential unit counts will be made up of 141 single detached dwellings, 109 traditional townhouse units, 190 stacked townhouse units and 2,782 apartment units. In addition to the residential, retail and office components there will be 3 SWM ponds and 3 parks with a a natural heritage system.

25 Appendix B Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Course Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Town of Oakville Financial Impact Model (Continued) B Residential Development Description C Non-residential Development Description 1 Unit Types # units 1 Type GFA m 2 Singles & Semis Industrial Singles - 30' 52 Type 1 - Singles - 32' 2 Type 2 - Singles - 40' 27 Sub-total - Singles - 43' 14 Commercial Singles - 50' 5 Office Space - Ground Floor 1,157 Singles - 60' 41 Office Space - Second Floor 4,272 Sub-total 141 Sub-total 5,429 Multiples (1-2 Bdrms) Retail Townhomes ' 109 Retail Space - Ground Floor 5,841 Stacked Towns - 33' 190 Type 2 - Sub-total 299 Sub-total 5,841 Multiples (3+ Bdrms) Institutional Type 1 - Type 1 - Type 2 - Type 2 - Sub-total - Sub-total - Apartments (Bach & 1 Bdrm) Total 11,270 Apartments (1 or Bach) 927 Type 2 - Sub-total 927 Apartments (2+ Bdrms) Apartment (2 or more) 1,855 Sub-total 1,855 Special / Accessory Units Type 1 - Type 2 - Sub-total - Total 3,222

26 Appendix B Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Course Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Town of Oakville Financial Impact Model (Continued) D Residential Development Charges F Residential Development Charge Rates 1 Unit Types # units Discounted Non-disc. Total 1 Unit Types Discounted Non-disc. Total Services Services Services Services Singles & Semis 141 1,378,698 2,001,495 3,380,193 Singles & Semis 9,778 14,195 23,973 Multiples (1-2 Bdrms) 299 2,140,242 3,106,311 5,246,553 Multiples 7,158 10,389 17,547 Multiples (3+ Bdrms) Multiples 7,158 10,389 17,547 Apartments (Bach& 1 Bdrm) 927 3,803,481 5,522,139 9,325,620 Apartments (Bach& 1 Bdrm) 4,103 5,957 10,060 Apartments (2+ Bdrms) 1,855 10,586,532 15,364,015 25,950,547 Apartments (2+ Bdrms) 5,706 8,281 13,987 Special / Accessory Units Special / Accessory Units 2,809 4,080 6,889 Total 3,222 17,908,953 25,993,960 43,902,913 E Non-residential Development Charges G Non-residential Development Charges 1 Type GFA m 2 Discounted Non-disc. Total 1 Type Discounted Non-disc. per m2 Services Services Services Services Industrial Industrial Commercial 5,429 59, , , Commercial Retail 5,841 63, , , Retail Institutional Institutional Total 11, , ,097, ,220,653.70

27 Appendix B Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Course Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Town of Oakville Financial Impact Model (Continued) H Specific Project Capital Project Description Year of Total Cost Grants and Net Cost Funding of Net Cost A Discounted Services Emplacement Other Revenue DC Allocation Other Funding (Includes Transit, Library, Studies, Facilities) $ - $ - Sources % $ $ 1 Transit Improvement (5 new buses, 1 new bus shelters and 9 new concrete bus pads) n.a. $ 407,000 $ - $ 407,000 90% $ 366, $ 40, $ - $ - 3 $ - $ - 4 $ - $ - 5 $ - $ - Total $ 407,000 $ - $ 407,000 $ 366, $ 40, B Non-discounted Services (Includes services related to a highway, fire protection) $ - $ - 1 Roads (Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - 2 Intersections / Access Points (Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - 3 Pedestrian and Cycling Routes (Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - 4 $ - $ - 5 $ - $ - Total $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - C Parks Services km Greenway Trail n.a. $ 390,000 $ - $ 390,000 90% $ 351, $ 39, Parkland Development (Community Park hectares) n.a. $ 1,436,262 $ - $ 1,436,262 90% $ 1,292, $ 143, Parkland Development (Neighbourhood Park hectares; Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - 4 Parkland facilities, amenities and buildings (All Parks hectares) n.a. $ 2,526,727 $ - $ 2,526,727 90% $ 2,274, $ 252, Natural Heritage System (Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - 6 NHS Buffer, Enbridge Easement, Open Space and Remnant Wooded Area (Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - Total $ 4,352,989 $ - $ 4,352,989 $ 3,917, $ 435, D Stormwater Services 1 Storm Drainage - three SWM facilities and four site discharge points (Direct Developer Responsibility) $ - $ - 2 $ - $ - 3 $ - $ - 4 $ - $ - 5 $ - $ - Total $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ 4,759,989 $ - $ 4,759,989 $ 4,283, $ 475,998.90

28 Appendix B Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Course Redevelopment Municipal Financial Impact Town of Oakville Financial Impact Model (Continued) I Development Charge Credits Discounted Non-disc. Total Services Services Development Charge Proceeds 18,031,796 27,091,771 45,123,567 Capital Requirements 4,283,990-4,283,990 Credits 4,283,990-4,283,990 Payout (where Capital Exceeds DC Proceeds) * Discounted Services includes parks, trails, parkland facilites and transit improvement

29 Appendix C Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Municipal Operating Impact MPAC Dwelling Information Comparable Property Assessments Single Detached - 30' Lot width Assessed Value (per unit) Single Detached - 60' Lot width Assessed Value (per unit) # Address Lot Width Estimated Age of Dwelling (in years) # Address Lot Width Littlewood Dr 27' $528, Wildfel Way 51' $972, Charles Potter Lane 27' $610, Ribble Cres 61' $924, Robert Brown Blvd 29' $586, Ribble Cres 57' $1,223, Wuthering Heights Way 27' $615, Bingley Cres 56' $1,251, Hilda Dr 30' $542, Saddleworth Cres 58' $924, Gatwick Dr 25' $528, Hidden Tr 53' $967, Robert Brown Blvd 26' $586, Liptay Ave 57' $934,000 6 Average $570,714 Average $1,027,857 Estimated Age of Dwelling (in years) Single Detached - 32' Lot width Townhomes Preserve Dr 32' $612, Sixteen Mile Dr $530, Gladeside Ave 32' $696, Old Brompton Way $444, Wuthering Heights Way 31' $650, Dorval Drive $600, Robert Brown Blvd 31' $628, Dorval Drive $455, Colton Way 32' $712, Parkhaven Blvd $322, Masteman Cres 32' $655, Vellwood Common $517, Charles Potter Lane 32' $693, Village Common $560,429 4 Average $663,714 Average $490,306 Single Detached - 40' Lot width Stacked Townhomes Culp Tr 38' $753, Sixth Line $283, Gardenbrook Ave 39' $774, Hays Blvd $282, Skipton Lane 38' $784, Carnation Avenue $332, Stocksbridge Ave 35' $687, Post Rd $283, Stocksbridge Ave 36' $672,000 8 Average $295, Cherryhurst Rd 33' $710, Preserve Dr 37' $809,000 3 Apartments Average $741, Central Park Dr $259, Central Park Dr $259, Single Detached - 43' Lot width Parkhaven Blvd $261, Gardenbrook Ave 43' $883, Bishop Gate $282, Larry Cres 43' $852, Prince Michael Dr $293, McWilliams Cres 40' $753, Central Park Dr $255, Stocksbridge Ave 43' $900,000 7 Average $268, Stocksbridge Ave 43' $759, Liptay Ave 43' $852,000 8 Non Residential - Commercial Hidden Trail 43' $786,000 3 Assessed Estimated Age of # Address Value (per sf) Building (in years) Average $826, Oak Park Blvd $ Trafalgar Rd $ Single Detached - 50' Lot width Trafalgar Rd $ McWilliams Cres 45' $939, Dundas Rd E $ Hidden Tr 44' $874, Dundas Rd E $ Larry Cres 46' $910, Old Bronte Rd $ Saltaire Cres 46' $944,000 6 Average $ Skipton Lane 48' $960, Gardenbrook Ave 49' $896,000 3 Non Residential - Office Bingley Cres 47' $848, Oak Park Blvd $ Average $910, Old Bronte Rd $ Trafalgar Rd $ Average $252

30 Appendix D Town of Oakville Glen Abbey Golf Club Redevelopment Municipal Operating Impact Calculation of Property Tax Revenue 2016 Property Tax Distribution (1) Property Type Town of Oakville Halton Region Education Total Residential 40.02% 37.02% 22.96% 100% Commercial 26.97% 24.95% 48.08% 100% Final Tax Property Tax Rates (2) Rate Residential (RT/RH) % Multi-Residential (MT) % Commercial - Full (CT/DT/GT/ST/CH/XT/YT/ZT) % Commercial - Vacant (CU/DU/SU/CX/XU/ZU/YU/CU) % Property Tax Calculation Property Tax Code Property Tax Rate Individual Estimated Assessment Value Property Taxation Local Municipal Share % Municipal Revenue Per Unit Municipal Revenue Singles Weighted Average Property Type # of Units Single Detached - 30' 52 RT % $570,714 $245, % $98,263 $1,890 $2,566 Single Detached - 32' 2 RT % $663,714 $10, % $4,395 $2,198 Single Detached - 40' 27 RT % $741,286 $165, % $66,270 $2,454 Single Detached - 43' 14 RT % $826,429 $95, % $38,309 $2,736 Single Detached - 50' 5 RT % $910,143 $37, % $15,068 $3,014 Single Detached - 60' 41 RT % $1,027,857 $348, % $139,535 $3,403 Townhouse 109 RT % $490,306 $442, % $176,954 $1,623 Stacked Townhouse 190 RT % $295,427 $464, % $185,853 $978 Apartments 1 bdr or bachelor 927 MT % $268,594 $4,068, % $1,628,336 $1,757 Apartments 2 bdr or more 1,855 MT % $268,594 $8,141, % $3,258,428 $1,757 Subtotal 3,222 $14,021,511 $5,611,409 Square footage Property Tax Code Property Tax Rate Assessment Value per sf Property Taxation Local Municipal Share % Municipal Revenue Per SF Municipal Revenue Commercial Occupied 56,584 CT % $314 $320, % $86,391 $1.53 Commercial Vacant 6,287 CU % $314 $24, % $6,719 $1.07 Office Occupied 52,594 DT % $252 $238, % $64,304 $1.22 Office Vacant 5,844 DU % $252 $18, % $5,001 $0.86 RayDor Estates 50,000 CT % $252 $226, % $61,132 $1.22 Work at Home n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Subtotal 171,309 $828,874 $223,547 Grand Total $5,834,956 (1) source: (2) source: