Measuring EU value added embodied in EU foreign exports by consolidating 27 national SUTs for
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1 24/04/ Measuring EU value added embodied in EU foreign exports by consolidating 27 national SUTs for Maaike C. Bouwmeester, Jan Oosterhaven & José M. Rueda-Cantuche WIOD conference, Groningen, April 2012
2 24/04/ The literature: how to consolidate? 1. Non-survey: estimate margins of IOT & use RAS or CRAS; not for EU27 with abundant SUT & IOT data 2. Survey: estimate international IOT from national IOTs & international trade data; repricing bilateral import block matrix with c.i.f. prices to balance with exports block column with f.o.b. prices 3. Future: start with national SUTs, not with IOTs 4. Our method: do not estimate a full intercountry SUT; only needs data intra-eu vs. trade
3 Overview of consolidation method 24/04/ Simple sum of 27 harmonised Use tables in basic prices; 27 intra-eu Import tables + 27 extra-eu Import tables in c.i.f. prices 2. Re-estimation of crude EU27 Import table from c.i.f. prices into basic prices, correction of re-exports = core step of construction process 3. Add domestic and new intra-eu import use table 4. Simple sum of 27 harmonized Supply tables
4 24/04/ Crudely consolidated EU27 Use table use use Red part of table should disappear 1: Exports to intra-eu countries 2: Exports to extra-eu countries 3: Re-exports, imported from intra-eu, exported to intra-eu 4: Re-exports, imported from intra-eu, exported to extra-eu 5 6 5: Re-exports, imported from extra-eu, exported to intra-eu 6: Re-exports, imported from extra-eu, exported to extra-eu 7: Taxes less subsidies on products (TLS) on intra-eu exports TLS TLS 7 8 8: Taxes less subsidies on products (TLS) on extra-eu exports
5 7 = deduct TLS on intra-eu 3 = Italian shoes via Austria to Czechia, OK 4 = Italian shoes via Austria to Swiss, not OK 24/04/ use Domesti c demand 1 2 use demand 1 2 -/- + -/- -/ import use import for demand TLS + TLS 7 8 Adjusted TLS Adj. TLS 8
6 5 = Swiss chocolate via France to Spain, not OK Re-scale total of intra-eu to total of intra- EU exports, +10% Re-price import rows to 1 24/04/ use demand 1 2 use demand 1 2 -/- -/ /- + -/- 6
7 24/04/ Test: GDP embodied in EU27 exports
8 18.0% Errors in embodied VA of EU-exports 16.0% 24/04/ Percentage of total 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Year First order intra-eu spillovers (v1b) Higher order spillovers and intra- EU feedbacks (v1c) Error of not consolidating (v2) Neglect of trade (v1b + v1c)
9 Decomposition of consolidation errors Unbiased value added specification error: domestic, spillover and feedback effects are all done with national ĉ r Unbiased aggregation error: the above effects could have been made with the crudely consolidated SUT Underestimation of extra-eu exports: -12.4% 24/04/ Rescaling intra-eu : TLS -0.25%, Shoes to Swiss -11.6%, chocolate to Spain +9.6%, remaining gap with exports +10%; Repricing with GRAS
10 20.0% Errors in embodied VA of EU-exports 15.0% 10.0% 24/04/ Error in factor coefficients (v2a) Percentage of total 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% Error from aggregation (v2b) Error of noncorrection of extra-eu exports (v2c) Error of noncorrection of intra- EU (v2d) Error of not consolidating (v2) Year
11 Summary of empirical outcomes 24/04/ All % are large, as such, and because the direct impact of EU-exports on EU-value added is included (an IO model not needed to estimate that) A crudely consolidated SUT, and thus the IOT, has large errors due to not correcting intra-eu trade Behind the large aggregate EU27 errors even larger errors of ±50% are found at the 59 industry level
12 24/04/ Conclusion and discussion Even with the 27.2% underestimation removed, EU27 exports to third countries contribute only a meager 11.2% to EU27 GDP Thus: internal market efficiency and innovativeness could well be far more important than external competitiveness!
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