Global Seafreight Market development and outlook for 2010 / Schenker AG Christian RANKL St.Poelten, 2010

Transcription

1 Global Seafreight Market development and outlook for 20 / 2011 Christian RANKL St.Poelten, 20

2 Agenda A Global PM Ocean Freight B Carriersituation C 20 volumes and expectations D E Rate and capacity development on main routes Main problems in shipping industry

3 PM Ocean Freight Regions Global Dr. Dräger / Jochen Thewes Americas Arnold Da Silva South America Karl Ruzsitska Europe&Africa Uwe Becher NME/East Africa Christian Tengs APAC Anja Rönnfeldt

4 Volume overview 20 vs 2008 EUR - Asia Trade Volumes Estimated TEU Dry & Reefer 20 Europe - Asia Westbound % Eastbound % Change Change January , ,56 February , ,81 March , ,52 Q , ,54 April , ,63 May , ,76 June , ,49 Q , ,64 July , ,68 August , ,56 September , ,15 Q , ,20 October , ,16 November , ,98 December , ,97 Q , ,12 Total , ,49 Source: ELAA

5 Volume overview 20 vs 2008 EUR - North America Trade Volumes Estimated TEU Dry & Reefer 20 Europe - North America Westbound % Eastbound % Change Change January , ,41 February , ,78 March , ,38 Q , ,03 April , ,16 May , ,30 June , ,89 Q , ,15 July , ,34 August , ,77 September , ,71 Q , ,67 October , ,36 November , ,01 December , ,26 Q , ,18 Total , ,08 Source: ELAA

6 carrying TEU Loss TEU/USD Carrier liftings and results 20 / Losses per TEU Carrier liftings and results Maersk CMA CSCL Coscon Hapag Lloyd APL OOCL Hanjin K-Line Hyundai ZIM CSAV 0 carrier

7 Mio USD Carriers result 20 Operating Profit ML CMA HL OOCL CSCL Cosco HMM Hanjin CSAV K-Line NYK APL MOL MISC ZIM Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Source: Alphaliner 20/35

8 Global Container Transport Full containers loaded Global Container Trade (mteu) is projected to grow by 36% between 20 and % +5% +11% +11% +3% -8% +8% +7% % % CAGR*: 4.9% CAGR*: 6.3% e 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e *Compound Annual Growth rate Status: IHS Global Insight Apri 20

9 Volume Development Pacific EB (mteu) EUR-Asia EB (mteu) ,06 16,24 15,27 13,47 14,05 14,91 15,83 4,98 5,22 5,07 4,70 4,79 4,90 5,00,9% 1,1% -6,0% -11,8% 4,3% 6,2% 6,2% 4,1% 4,8% -2,9% -7,3% 2,0% 2,2% 2,2% Pacific WB (mteu) EUR-Asia WB (mteu) 5,80 6,50 7,43 6,74 6,95 7,36 7,80 11,28 13,37 13,30 11,33 11,71 12,11 12,52 8,5% 12,0% 14,3% -9,3% 3,1% 5,9% 5,9% 16,9% 18,6% -0,6% -14,8% 3,4% 3,4% 3,4% Atlantic EB (mteu) ,00 5,59 5,65 5,03 5,15 5,45 5,77 15,0% 11,7% 1,0% -,8% 2,2% 5,8% 5,9% Atlantic WB (mteu) 4,75 5,74 4,53 4,06 4,26 4,41 4,57,3% -0,1% -4,5% -,4% 4,8% 3,6% 3,6% 9

10 Supply and Demand Development on Main Trades Asia Europe WB Transpacific EB Transatlantic WB Supply Demand Supply Demand Supply Demand 20: -15 ~ -20 % 20: -16 % 20: -5,7 % 20: -14,9 % 20: -6 % 20: -15 % 20: 8 % 20: 5 ~ % 20: 6 % 20: 4-6 % 20: -25 % 20: 0 % SUPPLY: DEMAND: Carriers started to control capacity mid 20 Worldwide capacity would increase by %, but carriers plan to manage supply (lay off/slow steaming/order delay/routing/vessel sharing etc) Considerable volume drop 1Q ~ 2Q 20 recovery since 4Q 20 Projected growth 20 ranging from +3 ~ + 14 % (TA: -3 ~ +8%) depending on source

11 Volume overview EUR-ASIA Trade Volumes Estimated TEU Dry & Reefer 20 Europe - Asia Westbound % Eastbound % Change Change January , ,36 February , ,97 March , ,71 Q , ,96 April , ,44 May , ,06 June , ,89 Q , ,55 July , ,23 Source: ELAA

12 Volume overview EUR-North America Trade Volumes Estimated TEU Dry & Reefer 20 Europe - North America Westbound % Eastbound % Change Change January , ,83 February , ,11 March , ,60 Q , ,33 April , ,33 May , ,16 June , ,42 Q , ,95 July , ,28 Source: ELAA

13 Volume overview 20 vs 20 EUR-NME/IPBC Trade Volumes Estimated TEU Dry & Reefer 20 Europe - IBS+NME Westbound % Eastbound % Change Change January , , February , ,48 March , ,84 Q , ,36 April , ,88 May , ,23 June , ,48 Q , ,84 July , ,24 Source: ELAA

14 TEU 331, , , , , , , , ,806 3, , , , , , ,595 Monthly Monitor Capacity Watch Sep 20 Jun 20 Far East Europe weekly Capacity (TEU) 450,000 Change vs August 2008: -7% Change vs August 20: +18% 400, , , , , ,000 0,000 50,000 0,000 Jun ' Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ' Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Source: Alphaliner, June 20

15 Index in % EUR Far East Rate Index HAM SHA 40 DV/HC EUR - Far East Rate Index 40' Top 3 Carrier CMA Maerk HL 0 Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Month Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Initial rate level Jan CMA: USD 1189 ML: USD 515 HL: USD 563

16 TEU 1,86 1,111 6,639 5,584 97,756 95,94 90,495 90,837 91,914 94,562 94,149 94,978 95,302 97,5 97,582 98,307 Monthly Monitor Capacity Watch Sep 20 Jun 20 Europe North America weekly Capacity (TEU) 140,000 Change vs August 2008: -16% Change vs August 20: -7% 120,000 0,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0,000 Jun ' Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan ' Source: Alphaliner, June 20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

17 EUR USA Rate Index BRV - NYC 40 DV EUR - USA 40' Top 4 MSC CMA ML HL Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt year Nov Dez Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Initial rate level Jan MSC: $ 1280 CMA: $1600 ML: $ 1450 HL: $ 1418

18 TEU Capacity Lay up/idle 20/20 Idle TEU % of container fleet ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% 0 0,0% 2/20 6/20 /20 14/20 18/20 22/20 26/20 30/20 34/20 38/20 42/20 46/20 50/20 3/20 7/20 11/20 15/20 19/20 23/20 27/20 31/20 35/20 week/year 18 Source: Alphaliner

19 Development Carrier fleet / Order book includes layd up vessels Additional 30 % of the global operated fleet is still on order (1,000 TEU, Analysis based on data sourced from AXS-Alphaliner Source: dynaliner CW18_

20 Equipment situation 20 Container trades growth being sudden and much higher than anticipated 20 production of new dry boxes barely having reached TEU large-scale scrapping of old boxes during the recent recession Financially strapped carriers saving costs on anything, including empty repositioning Shortage of Containers the effect of slow steaming (not only absorbing more ships but more boxes too)

21 Container Production in MTEU (figures of CIMC and Singamas 75% of global output) 3 2,5 2 1,5 1? 0, Alphaliner: 25/20 * *Forecast

22 IFO development IFO-380 RTM 480,00 15,00 470,00 460,00 450,00 440,00 430,00 420,00 4,00 400,00 390,00 380,00,00 5,00 0,00-5,00 IFO-380 RTM Deviation in % 370,00 Aug Sep Okt Nov Dez Jan Feb Mrz Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep -,00 Source:

23 Conclusion Outlook 20 EUR-FE rates are heavily under pressure, as supply is far higher than demand EUR-NA space is still tight and rates remain strong, GRI for 1st of Oct Bunker prices are still unpredictable, no all in rates for longer periods No winter schedules have been announced yet (capacity reductions), but we expect info in Oct We can quote aggressively for shorter periods, but we need to be careful for long running contracts. (more than 6 month) Slow steaming will go on

24 SCHENKERocean Moves on despite rough Seas Thank You For Your Attention