Finansforeningens Virksomhedsdag 2015

Transcription

1 page 1 Finansforeningens Virksomhedsdag 2015 Maersk s strategy and performance Group CFO Trond Westlie

2 Forward-looking Statements page 2 This presentation contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as various factors, many of which are beyond A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S control, may cause actual development and results to differ materially from the expectations contained in the presentation.

3 The Maersk Group Revenue, NOPAT and Invested capital split page 3 MAERSK LINE MAERSK OIL APM TERMINALS MAERSK DRILLING APM SHIPPING SERVICES Revenue, FY2014 (%) 56% 18% 9% 4% 12% NOPAT 1, FY2014 (%) 42% 20% 16% 9% 4% INVESTED CAPITAL, FY2014 (%) 40% 11% 12% 15% 9% Note 1: Excluding one-offs, unallocated, eliminations and discontinued operations Residual explained by Other businesses

4 page 4 Ambitions The Group will create value through profitable growth and by creating winning businesses The Group seeks to improve the Return on Invested Capital by; Focused and disciplined capex allocation Portfolio optimisation Performance management The Group intends to share the value creation by growing dividends in nominal terms and have bought back shares

5 Value creation - Financial performance recent 5 years page 5 Group underlying profit* USDm 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,918 2,915 3,409 4,532 ~4,000 The Group has increased the underlying profit by 55% to USD 4.5bn (USD 4.1bn excluding Danske Bank) since 2011 mainly driven by improved profitability in Maersk Line 2,000 1,000 0 ROIC % 15% e 13.8% ROIC has gradually improved above the target of ROIC > 10% 11.0% 10% 8.3% 8.9% 8.2% 5% 0% Q *Continuing business excluding net impact from divestments and impairments

6 Optimising our invested capital base page 6 Business Invested capital (USDm) ROIC % Q1 2015* ROIC % Q1 2014* ROIC % FY 2014 Development in invested capital since Q Group 44, % 10.0% 11.0% Maersk Drilling 109% Maersk Line 19, % 9.0% 11.6% APM Terminals 33% Maersk Oil 5, % 21.2% -15.2% APM Terminals 5, % 14.0% 14.7% Maersk Drilling 8, % 8.1% 7.1% Maersk Line Other businesses** Group -3% -9% -15% APM Shipping Services Maersk Supply Service 4, % 5.2% -4.2% 1, % 5.7% 11.9% Maersk Tankers 1, % 4.9% 6.8% Damco % -9.3% -63.2% SVITZER 1, % 9.4% -19.2% Other Businesses 5, % 6.4% 6.1% *ROIC annualised Note. The dividend payable of USD 6.1bn is included in unallocated activities and causes a decrease in the total invested capital for the Group Maersk Oil Maersk Supply* Damco SVITZER -33% -33% Maersk Tankers -60% -100% Dansk Supermarked -16% -22% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% *ESVAGT moved from Maersk Supply Service to Other businesses **Includes receivables from the sale of Danske Bank shares The Group has the ambition to deliver a ROIC > 10%

7 Investing in growth - Capital commitments page 7 Investment in growth Capital commitments USDbn Q USDbn Total Maersk Line Maersk Oil APM Terminals Maersk Drilling APM Shipping Services Cash flow from operating activities Cash flow for capital expenditure, gross 67% of all outstanding capital commitments by end Q are dedicated to growth in Maersk Oil, APM Terminals and Maersk Drilling

8 Active portfolio management page 8 Cash flow from divestments has been USD 11.6bn with divestment gains of USD 5.5bn pre-tax since 2009 (USDbn) Selected divestments Q Cash flow from divestments Divestment gains (pre-tax) Rosti Loksa Sigma Baltia Netto, UK FPSO Ngujima- Yin Maersk LNG FPSO Peregrino US Chassis Dania Trucking DFDS stake US BTT ERS Railways VLGC s Handygas FPSO Curlew Dansk Supermarked majority share 15 Owned VLCCs APM Terminals Virginia Danske Bank stake

9 Strategic focus on creating winning businesses page 9 Industry Top quartile performance in FY 2014 Return BELOW WACC in FY 2014 Return ABOVE WACC in FY 2014 Excl. Brazilian impairment BU outperform industry but below WACC return BU outperform industry and above WACC return NOT Top quartile performance in FY 2014 BU underperform industry and below WACC return BU underperform industry but above WACC return Source: Industry peer reports, Maersk Group financial reports, like-for-like with peer return calculation. Note: Industry average and top-quartile returns are weighted after business unit invested capital Relevant peer data for Svitzer not available due to industry consolidation

10 page 10 Share the value creation Pay-out (DKKm) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Ordinary dividend Extraordinary dividend The Group intends to share the value creation by grow dividends in nominal terms and have bought back shares Note1: Dividend, extraordinary dividend, and share buyback in the paid year

11 page page Maersk Line

12 page 12 Liner market environment We expect industry demand growth of 3-5% per year in We expect nominal supply to increase 5-7% p.a. during Excess capacity seem permanent Expect downward pressure on container freight rates where Maersk Line s average rate has declined by 1.9% annually since 2004

13 Maersk Line s business model is to be the cost leader page 13 We continue to take out costs Unit cost, (USD/FFE) 3,300 3,100 CAGR -7.5% 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Note: Unit cost excluding gain/loss, restructuring, share of profit/loss from associated companies and including VSA income. Unit cost at fixed bunker price calculated based on 400 USD/Ton all years. Source: Maersk Line

14 Maersk Line has a vast toolbox for cost cutting page 14 Network rationalisation Speed equalisation & Slow steaming Improve utilisation Container efficiency Maersk Line- MSC VSA Improve procurement Inland optimisation Deployment of larger vessels Retrofits Source: Maersk Line

15 Maersk Line Capacity market share by trade page 15 no.3 no.3 8% 14% no.4 no.2 no.1 5% Intra 23% Europe Pacific Atlantic Asia-Europe Pacific no.3 7% Intra Asia no.3 Latin America Africa West- Central Asia Oceania 28% 19% 17% 15% no.2 no.1 no.1 no.1 Maersk Line capacity (TEU) East-West 41% North-South 50% Intra 9% Capacity market share no. Market position Note: West-Central Asia is defined as import and export to and from Middle East and India Source: Alphaliner as of 2014 FY (end period), Maersk Line

16 Profitability is increasing page 16 ROIC, (%) 16% 12% 8% 4% % -4% -8% -12% -16% Q1 12 Q3 12 Q1 13 Q3 13 Q1 14 Q3 14 Q1 15 Quarterly LTM Source: Maersk Line

17 page 17 Economy of scale is a driver of liner profitability Average EBIT-margin , (%) 10% 8% Regional focus Global scale leaders Maersk Line 6% 4% SITC Wan Hai CMA 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% OOCL K Line Hanjin Evergreen NYK Yang Ming COSCO MOL CSCL Hapaq Lloyd Hyundai APL ZIM ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Average capacity , ( 000 TEU) Note1: EBIT-margin excludes gains/losses, restructuring costs, share of profit/loss from JV Note2: MSC and Hamburg Süd EBIT margin are unknown, UASC s FY14 financials are not available Note3: FY average numbers Note4: Hapag Lloyd s FY14 EBIT margin includes 1 month of CSAV data as the integration was completed in Dec Capacity includes CSAV s capacity. Source: Company Reports, Alphaliner

18 page 18 Maersk Oil

19 Maersk Oil Entitlement Production, 2014 page 19 Hydrocarbon type (%) Location (%) Operatorship (%) OECD/non-OECD (%) Oil Gas Shallow water Onshore Deepwater Operated Operated by others OECD Non-OECD % 100% % 80% % 60% % 40% % 20% % % 2014

20 page 20 Maersk Oil s share of Production and Exploration Costs Maersk Oil s share of production ( 000 boepd) > e DK UK Qatar Algeria Other Maersk Oil s exploration costs* (USDm) 1,400 1,200 1, ,149 1, ~0.7bn e *All exploration costs are expensed directly unless the project has been declared commercial

21 Maersk Oil s portfolio page 21 Exploration Resources Project Maturation Process Reserves Production Prospects in the pipeline Initiate & Discoveries Assess Select Define Execute Assets Farsund Dunga III Southern Area Fields 2) Johan Sverdrup II 4) Jack II Johan Sverdrup I 3) Tyra SE USA Denmark Buckskin Kazakhstan Valdemar WI Jackdaw Zidane Chissonga Flyndre & Cawdor UK Courageous Total of 75 exploration prospects and leads in the exploration pipeline Itaipu Wahoo Swara Tika Greater Gryphon Area 1) Tyra Future Culzean Al Shaheen FDP 2012 Algeria Brazil Qatar Total Total no. of projects per phase Uncertainty Bubble size indicates estimate of net resources: >100 mmboe mmboe <50 mmboe Colour indicates resource type: Primarily oil Primarily gas Discoveries and prospects (Size of bubbles do not reflect volumes) 1) Development of oil resources in the Greater Gryphon Area (Quad 9) before initiating the Gas Blowdown project in the area (UK) 2) Southern Area Fields cover Dan Area Redevelopment and Greater Halfdan FDP projects (Denmark) 3) The Plan for Johan Sverdrup (Norway) Development and Operation (PDO) has been submitted in Q for authority approval 4) Phase 2 of the Johan Sverdrup development (Norway) is expected to commence production in 2022

22 page 22 Maersk Oil initiatives Ambition to reduce OPEX by 20% end Exploration costs reduced by 30% Capitalise on pipeline of projects Tender for prolongation of the Al-Shaheen area in Qatar Considering M&A

23 page 23 APM Terminals

24 Project example existing terminal expansion page 24 APM Terminals Callao, Peru To be completed in 2015 Investment of USD 0.7bn modernizing the multi-purpose terminal into a worldclass facility, handling container, bulk, Ro/Ro, general cargo and cruise vessels

25 Diversified Global Portfolio page 25 Container throughput by region (equity weighted crane lifts, %) Africa and Middle East, 21% Americas, 19% Total throughput of 38.3m TEU per year Asia, 30% Europe, Russia and Baltics, 30% Average remaining concession length in years Americas Europe, Russia and Baltics Asia Africa and Middle East Total portfolio APM Terminals Tangier, Morocco

26 page 26 NOPAT (USDm) 1,000 CAGR 15.6% Underlying Segment Result One-offs Average Invested Capital/ROIC (USDm) 7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500 0 CAGR 5.8% Invested Capital ROIC ROIC excl. One-offs 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Note: Figures have been restated under IFRS 12

27 page 27 Maersk Drilling

28 Forward contract coverage reduces near term exposures page page Maersk Drilling forward contract coverage 100% 80% 86% 60% 61% 40% 20% 32% 0% Note: As per end of Q1 2015

29 Final remarks Maersk Line vessel calling Namibia page 29 The Group reported strong financials for 2014 and Q We will continue to create value through; Profitable growth Creating winning businesses Portfolio optimisation Focused and disciplined capital allocation and we will continue to share the value with our shareholders.

30 page 30 Questions, please Henrik Lund Johan Mortensen Maja Schou-Jensen Head of Investor Relations Senior Investor Relations Officer Investor Relations Officer Tel: Tel: Tel: