Risk Check: Applying Community Risk Reduction Strategies To Enforcement Inspections

Transcription

1 2017 NFPA Conference & Expo Risk Check: Applying Community Risk Reduction Strategies To Enforcement Inspections Presented by: David Lynam Fire Marshal / Deputy Building Official Kitsap County What To Expect Introduction Principals of Risk Management and Assessment Risk Assessment Techniques Qualitative / Quantitative Fault / Event Trees Applying Assessment Techniques to Inspection Programs Kitsap County, Washington Risk Check Program Community Dave s Reasonably Honest 1

2 Loss Reduction Fire Risk - Inspection Loss of Business in Community Loss of Structure Fire Event Loss of Employment Proven: Reduce loss of life. Reduce Property Loss Reduce Insurance Costs Loss of Revenue Inspection Frequency 2

3 ??Why?? Why Should This Be Inspected as Often as This????? What Is Risk? Risk Management Terms Hazard = Any source of potential damage. Risk = The paired probabilities and consequences for possible outcomes associated with a given event. Probability = The likelihood of an occurrence as expressed as a number between 0 and 1, usually based over a period of time. Consequence = The outcome of an event expressed quantitatively or qualitatively. 3

4 Risk Assessment Impacts / Outcomes Casualties Property damage Loss of business Loss of revenue (taxable value) Environmental contamination Loss of governmental confidence Environmental disaster Hazards Earthquake Weather Terrorism Pandemic disease Fire Workplace violence Loss of utilities Types of Risk Assessment Qualitative Antidotal Based on perceptions Quantitative Comprehensive - numerical Semi Quantitative Often uses elements of both. Qualitative Risk Assessment Qualitative + Calculations are simple. + Provides general information. - Results are subjective. - No cost / benefit analysis. - No way to track performance. 4

5 Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Semi-Quantitative + Develops a quantified hierarchy of risks. + Combines the two approaches. + / - In between pros and cons. - Lacks cost / benefit analysis. How to Calculate Events Rt = CiFi Rt = Total Risk for the event. Ci = Consequence for the event. Fi = Frequency of the event. Hi Hi H,L H,M H,H Med M,L M,M M,H LowLo L,L L,M L,H Lo Med Hi H M L L-1 M-5 H-10 How to Evaluate Evaluation of individual scenarios is often impractical with multiple unique frequency x consequences therefore common to group into fire scenarios vs. individual scenarios. Fire Scenario Frequency Consequence Score Rank Fire House Freq. 10 Cons. 5 Score 50 Rank 1 Scenario Fires House Business Fires Fires Business Brush Fires Fires Brush Fires

6 Structure Fires by Occupancy Annual Averages Occupancy Fires Civilian Deaths and Injuries Direct Prop. Damage (Mill.) Assembly 14,650 3% 173 1% $425 4% Educational 5,690 1% 86 0% $92 1% Health Care, Detention & Correction 6,820 1% 177 1% $57 1% Residential 392,800 79% 16,450 92% $7,605 71% Mercantile, Business 17,740 4% 347 2% $810 8% Industrial 2,860 1% 55 0% $232 2% Manufacture 5,300 1% 177 1% $593 6% Storage 21,770 4% 213 1% $614 6% Outside 22,330 4% 128 1% $81 1% Unclassified, unknown 8,540 2% 107 1% $142 1% Quantitative Analysis Matrix Annual Averages Occupancy Fires - Fires - Property Frequency $$$ / Fire Fires - Human $$$/Fire Risk $$ / Fire Total Risk $$$$$ Assembly 30 $29,010 $1,541 $29,151 $874,530 Educational 10 $16,169 $793 $16,962 $161,962 Health Care, Detention & 10 $8,358 $3,310 $11,668 $110,668 Correction Residential 790 $19,361 $30,989 $50,350 $39,776,500 Mercantile, Business 40 $45,660 $5,599 $51,259 $2,050,360 Industrial 10 $81,119 $6,315 $87,434 $874,340 Manufacture 10 $111,887 $5,963 $117,850 $1,178,850 Storage 40 $28,204 $6,222 $34,426 $1,370,704 Outside 40 $3,627 $3,033 $6,660 $266,400 Unclassified, 20 $16,628 $6,873 $8,501 $170,020 Averages 1,000 $36,002 $7,064 $43,066 $43,066,000 Ave Age = 35, Life expectance = 70, 35 Quality $129,000 Total $45,250,944 Fault Tree Left Side Bow Tie thow it happened Quantitative and qualitative + Can identify Root Cause + Can identify biggest bang for the buck in prevention. -Can go on indefinitely -Based on data to be reliable ve and qualitative + Can identify Root Cause + Can identify biggest bang for the buck in prevention. -Can go on indefinitely -Based on data to be reliable 6

7 Fault Tree What went wrong? Reverse analysis Begin with the event. Fire has to have at least three things all three have to be there. The fuel source could be a variety of things. Could be a variety of ignition sources. Fault Tree What went wrong? Identify Components Determine which have to happen simultaneously or consecutively = ANDS Determine proportional elements = ORS Fault Tree What went wrong? Involves some math. Add up the proportional, the ORS. Altering the ORS dramatically affects the event. Multiply the ANDS. 7

8 Fault Tree What went wrong? The Rest of the Story Identify the Probability Scenario based. Over time or over a certain amount. Probability of a single event. Can multiply by numbers of events. Event Tree How bad could it get? Event Tree What s the probability? Systematic exam of outcome. Focus on mitigation. Uses binary (two outcome) logic. Complements the Fault Tree. Focus is on mitigation once event has occurred. Examines probability of specific outcomes. 8

9 Event Tree How to do it? Event Tree Logical Process Identify the unwanted event. Identify the control features. Construct tree (starting with event) Assign probabilities of each gate. Do the math. Event Tree Basic fire scenario. Example Bringing it all together. 9

10 Prioritizing Mitigation Factors Risk FactorsFactor s Fire Risks What are the chances of a fire happening? If it does happen how big will it get? How fast will it get big? How dangerous will it be? How significant is the loss? What other indicators are there? How to Mitigate the Risks Can the occupants get out? Can the building take care of itself? Can the fire be contained? What can we bring to the game? 10

11 Where to Start? Data Where do fires occur? What causes them? How dangerous are they? How significant? What does it matter? Balance Risk and Mitigation Ignitability Combustibility Endangerment Defined Hazards Maintained Sprinkler System Maintained Alarm System Resistance Fire Department Rating A Quantitative Formula Risk Risk Check Score Mitigation 11

12 Put the Data to Work How to Get Started? Assessment Gather Data Develop Metrics KISS Keep it Simple Evaluate How Do You Know If You Have It Right? Modify Dynamic Process. 12

13 References NFPA 551 Guide for the Evaluation of Risk Assessments 2016 edition. Ready Business Risk Assessment Table ready.gov/business. Structure Fires By Occupancy, NFPA 4/13. RCC Training - Identifying Hazards, Assessing and Evaluating Risks Resources Vision 20/20 Strategicfire.org, Community Risk Assessment Strategies NFPA 1730 Standard for Community Risk Assessments. David Lynam (360) dlynam@co.kitsap.wa.us Questions? Thank You!!!! 13

14 2017 NFPA Conference & Expo CEUs: To receive CEUs for this session, scan your badge at the back of the room before leaving Evaluation: Complete a session evaluation on the mobile app. (Search app store for NFPA 2017 C&E. ) Handouts: Handouts will be available via the mobile app and at nfpa.org/conference Recordings: Audio recordings of all sessions will be available free of charge via NFPA Xchange. 14