REGIONAL COURSE ON SNA 2008 : Improving Exhaustiveness of GDP Coverage FINANCIAL SERVICES. 31 Aug 4 Sept 2015 Daejeon, Republic of Korea
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1 REGIONAL COURSE ON SNA 2008 : Improving Exhaustiveness of GDP Coverage FINANCIAL SERVICES 31 Aug 4 Sept 2015 Daejeon, Republic of Korea Percentage Share of GDP at Constant 2010 Prices, for year % 53.5 % 9.2% GDP 4.3% 9.0% RM1,012.6 billion 23.0% Agriculture Mining & Quarrying Construction Manufacturing Services Import Duties Annual Percentage Change for Total Services and Private Services at Constant 2010 Prices Annual Growth YoY (%) SERVICES PRIVATE SERVICES Year
2 Share to Share to GDP Share to Sector SECTOR Private Services Growth YoY (%) Q215 Q215 Q115 Q215 SERVICES Electricity and Gas Water, sewerage and waste management Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Motor Vehicles Food and Beverage Accommodation Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Finance Insurance Real Estate and Business Services Other Services Government Services Note: Contribution of Services Sector at Constant 2010 Prices Finance & Insurance Composition Share For Year 2014 Insurance RM18.5 B (25%) Value Added RM 74 Billion Finance RM55.5 B (75%) YEAR 2014 Contribution of Finance & Insurance to Total GDP is 7.3% and 13.7% to the total services sector Finance & Insurance Performance Annual Percentage Change
3 This category includes all units engaged in activities of obtaining and redistributing funds, in the form of deposits by Central banks and other monetary institutions, insurance and pension funding and other activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 5 Annual Data Sources Central Bank of Malaysia Financial Statement From Companies Other Indicators : BLR, ALR Quarterly Data Sources Central Bank of Malaysia Other Indicators : BLR, ALR Deflator : CPI Methodology Double Deflation Methodology Extrapolation Output as mover
4 Finance Market Non Market Monetary Intermediation Other Financial Intermediation Central Bank 7 Output for Banking Explicit Charges Implicit Charges Fee Income Rental Income Other Income FISIM FISIM Financial Intermediaries Indirectly Measured Associated with loans and deposits 8
5 Output for Finance (Market) = Service charges and other receipt from services + FISIM Explicit Fee Base FISIM Value of services integrated in the computation of interest on deposit and loans. Loans & Deposits (Interest) BANKS Loans & Deposits (Interest) HOUSEHOLD CORPORATION Compute FISIM on Loans and Deposits using Reference Rate Method 9 Reference Rate rate between bank interest rate on deposits and loans = (Interest on deposits + Interest on loans) / (Stocks of loans + deposits) Fisim on loans = (Interest rates on loans reference rate) x Stock of loans. Fisim on deposits = (Reference rate Interest rates paid on deposits) x Stock of deposits. Implicit service charges (FISIM) = Fisim on loans + Fisim on deposits.
6 Allocation of FISIM A full allocation the use of FISIM across the relevant sectors & industries. To identify the purchase of these services explicitly FISIM Intermediate Use Final Use Financial Corporation Non Financial Corporation Households Government Exports FINANCE IN CONSTANT PRICE In deriving the constant prices, double deflation method is used to eliminates the price effect from both output and intermediate consumption. OUTPUT Implicit OUTPUT General Prices (Total CPI) Explicit OUTPUT CPI of Financial Services CPI Rental INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION CPI Rental PPI Utilities SPPI for Information & Telecommunication Other related price indexes CONCEPTUAL TREATMENT ON FISIM In SNA 1993 and 2008, FISIM is to be allocated among the sectors that consume FISIM either as final consumption or intermediate consumption METHOD OF ALLOCATION Bank deposits by customer type and bank loans by sector FISIM on loans : Allocated using loan by sector ( + treatment for OOD) FISIM on deposit : Allocated using deposit by customer type ( + treatment for business) FISIM FISIM= (Lr Rr)YL + (Rr Dr)YD ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HOUSEHOLDS GOVERNMENT Loan By Sector Loan Deposit Loan Deposit 12
7 FIRE Insurance Insurance & Pension Funding Act Auxiliary to Insurance Life Insurance Non Life Insurance Pension funding Insurance Broking and agency services Insurance Adjusting services MAT MOTOR Medical & Health Personal Accident 13 Annual Data Sources Central Bank of Malaysia Financial Statement From Companies Quarterly Data Sources Central Bank of Malaysia Methodology Double Deflation Methodology Extrapolation Output as mover
8 Insurance Life Insurance Non Life Insurance Islamic Conventional Islamic Conventional Output of Insurance Premium Investment Income (consist of income from the Investment Account, islamic money market, income from financing, gross dividend, rent and others minus investment expenses) Claims Output of insurance companies (insurance service charges) = Premium contribution + Premium supplements (Claims payable + Changes in the provisions for claims Outstanding) A calamity may create a negative output of nonlife insurance if claims payable is extraordinary large. Claims payable in this case may be replaced based on past behavior instead of actual claim paid. SNA 2008 : Output of insurance companies (insurance service charges) = Premium contribution + Premium supplements (Adjusted claims incurred) Life = Premium earned + Premium supplements benefits due increases (+) decreases) in life insurance technical reserves
9 CALCULATION OF INSURANCE (Malaysia) Output of Insurance sub-sector as recommended in SNA 2008: Output = Premium contribution + Premium supplements - (Adjusted claims incurred) However, our output estimation is still based on SNA 1993 since Malaysia seldom faces huge disaster and calamity: Output = Premium income + Net Investment Income Claims Paid JABATAN PERANGKAAN MALAYSIA DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS, MALAYSIA 17 In deriving the constant prices, double deflation method is used to eliminates the price effect from both output and intermediate consumption. INSURANCE IN CONSTANT PRICE OUTPUT PREMIUM,PREMIUM SUPPLEMENT CPI Insurance ( i.e for Life, motor vehicles, Fire) Other related indexes (investment) Claims, Benefit paid CPI Insurance Services ( technical reserves) CPI Insurance ( i.e for Life, motor vehicles) INTERMEDIATE CONSUMPTION CPI Rental PPI Utilities SPPI for Information & Telecommunication Other related price indexes 18
10 Appropriate deflator in financial activities is needed to derive a constant price. ( i.e Producer Price Index for Banking Services) Limitation in allocating FISIM on deposit by economic activity since data on deposit only available by type of customer (e.g government, business and household). In the absence of comprehensive data set on interest paid / receive by economic activity, data on loans and deposits by sectors are used as an indicator to allocate the FISIM by economic activities. IFRS adaptation of the new standard of financial reporting affected the compilation of financial sector. Compilation FISIM with ROW still under study Life Insurance Technical Reserve not available by quarterly basis
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