Benefits of Improving Infrastructure Resilience

Transcription

1 24 January 2017 Research Showcase: Advisory Board Meeting Benefits of Improving Infrastructure Resilience Dr. Edward J. Oughton Research Associate Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies

2 A Toolkit for Risk Science: Quantifying Resilience Threat Maps Risk Models & Output Data Scenarios Software Platform (Cambridge Risk Framework) Exposure Data Use Cases Business Applications Network Models Private Portals, APIs and modelling interfaces 2

3 What Do We Mean by Use-Cases? Engagement Integration Analysis Enhancement Enabling Smarter Decision Making 3

4 Aim 1 Who Are the Users? Those with global operations 4

5 Aim 1 Who Are the Users? The industries of CRS Advisory Board members is a good start 5

6 Aim 2 What Do They Need? 6

7 Disease Outbreak Financial Shock Natural Catastrophe Aim 3 Why Do They Need These Analytics? NatCat Humanitarian Crisis Trade Dispute Climatic Catastrophe AidCat WeatherCat TradeCat Externality Geopolitical Conflict Environmental Catastrophe SpaceCat WarCat EcoCat Political Violence Technological Catastrophe Other NextCat HateCat TechCat Asset Bubble Labour Dispute Conventional War Terrorism Market Crash Volcanic Eruption Sovereign Default Flood HealthCat FinCat Financial Irregularity Bank Run Earthquake Windstorm Tsunami Human Epidemic Animal Epidemic Cartel Pressure Tornado & Hail Nationalization Electric Storm Trade Sanctions Tariff War Drought Freeze Heatwave Famine Water Supply Failure External Force Wildfire Civil War Pollution Event Asymmetric War Nuclear War Sea Level Rise Ocean System Change Atmospheric System Change Meteorite Solar Storm Organized Crime Cyber Catastrophe Assassination Technological Accident Separatism Social Unrest Nuclear Meltdown Industrial Accident Infrastructure Failure Waterborne Epidemic Zoonosis Plant Epidemic Child Poverty Welfare System Failure Refugee Crisis Space Threat Ozone Layer Collapse Satellite System Failure Measure, prioritise, mitigate 7

8 Who Are the Users? 8

9 Who Are the Users? 9

10 CRS Research - Infrastructure Taxonomy of Threats Geopolitical Conflict Emerging Risk Scenario Pandemic Emerging Risk Scenario Cyber Catastrophe Emerging Risk Scenario Social Unrest Emerging Risk Scenario Ebola Emerging Risk Scenario Financial Catastrophes Global Property Crash Financial Risk Scenario Eurozone Meltdown Financial Risk Scenario High Inflation Financial Risk Scenario Dollar Dethroned Financial Risk Scenario Historical Crises Financial Risk Cyber Accumulation Insurance Risk Report Business Blackout Integrated Infrastructure Lloyds Emerging Risk Report Lockheed Martin Climate Change Investor Sentiment Shock World City Risk 2025 Lloyds Co-Branded Report Solar Storm Emerging Risk Scenario 10

11 CRS Research Common Themes Social Unrest Climate Change Cyber Financial Economic Financial Spatial Space Historical Geo political Natural Hazards Pandemic 11

12 Source Map - Starbucks Shows links in abstract geographical space 12

13 Source Map - Starbucks Shows links in abstract geographical space Most probable actual route 13

14 The CRS Added-Value Finance, Economics and Trade Geopolitics and Security Market Crash Sovereign Crisis Commodity Prices Interstate Conflict Terrorism Separatism Conflict Social Unrest Natural Catastrophe and Climate Earthquake Tropical Windstorm Temperate Windstorm Tsunami Flood Volcanic Eruption Drought Freeze Heatwave Technology and Space Health and Humanity Nuclear Accident Power Outage Cyber Attack Solar Storm Human Pandemic Plant Epidemic Focus on trillion dollar scenarios

15 The CRS Added-Value Finance, Economics and Trade Geopolitics and Security Market Crash Sovereign Crisis Natural Catastrophe and Climate Earthquake Technology and Space Commodity Prices Interstate Conflict Terrorism Multi-threat is great, but how do we anchor Separatism Conflict Social Unrest it from global to local? Tropical Temperate Tsunami Flood Volcanic Drought Freeze Heatwave Windstorm Windstorm Eruption Health and Humanity Nuclear Accident Power Outage Cyber Attack Solar Storm Human Pandemic Plant Epidemic Focus on trillion dollar scenarios

16 Infrastructure 16

17 A Toolkit for Risk Science: Quantifying Resilience Threat Maps Risk Models & Output Data Scenarios Software Platform (Cambridge Risk Framework) Exposure Data Use Cases Business Applications Network Models Private Portals, APIs and modeling interfaces 17

18 A Toolkit for Risk Science: Quantifying Resilience Threat Maps Scenarios Exposure Data Network Models Towards a functional understanding of physical infrastructure, supply chains and value flows 18

19 Integrated Infrastructure Scenario Slide credit: Scott Thacker of ITRC 19

20 Quantifying Cascading Failure in Interdependent Infrastructure Systems Slide credit: Scott Thacker of ITRC 20

21 Quantifying Cascading Failure in Interdependent Infrastructure Systems Slide credit: Scott Thacker of ITRC 21

22 Electricity Customers Disrupted 22

23 Railway Customers Disrupted 23

24 Results: Domestic Loss by Sector (S1) Direct Economic Loss Indirect Downstream Loss Indirect Upstream Loss Finance Business Services Transport and Distribution (n=300) 24

25 Conclusions Who are the users? Big players who need the global picture What do they need? Risk metrics, options and comparative analytics Why do they need it? Directing limited resources to where they are most needed 25

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