Managing Risk-Related Contingent Liabilities in Public Finance Frameworks

Transcription

1 2015/SFOM13/028 Session: 5 Managing Risk-Related Contingent Liabilities in Public Finance Frameworks Purpose: Information Submitted by: OECD 13 th Senior Finance Officials Meeting Bagac, Philippines June 2015

2 MANAGING RISK-RELATED CONTINGENT LIABILITIES IN PUBLIC FINANCE FRAMEWORKS Cathérine Gamper OECD Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, Reform of the Public Sector Division APEC Senior Finance Officials Meeting, June 11&12, 2015 Bagac, Bataan

3 BACKGROUND

4 UNEXPECTED EVENTS Great East Japan Earthquake Magnitude! EARTHQUAKE.. TSUNAMI. NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

5 UNEXPECTED EVENTS Iceland Volcanic Eruption flights cancelled; 10 million people stranded

6 UNEXPECTED EVENTS Hurricane Sandy 2012 $50 billion in reconstruction costs

7 Stock Price in USD UNEXPECTED EVENTS BP Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill 2010 Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill caused BP stock price to plummet (60 % drop) Deepwater Horizon oil spill 20 April

8 Annual economic losses in USD billion Major economic losses Past decade: USD 1.5 trillion in economic damages from manmade disasters (industrial accidents, terrorist attacks) and natural disasters (primarily storms and floods) Economic losses due to disasters in OECD and BRIC countries, (USD Billion) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, (accessed 14 November 2013).

9 Annual Regional GDP growth to previous year Why boosting resilience matters Some disasters caused economic losses in excess of 20% of GDP (Chile, NZ), with local economies especially affected 15% The impact of disasters on local economies 10% 5% 0% % -10% 9/11 Attacks L Aquila Earthquake 6/4/2009 Abruzzo Queensland New York Queensland Flooding 2010/11 Source: OECD (2012), Large regions, TL2: Demographic statistics, OECD Regional Statistics (database), accessed on 14 November 2013, doi: /data en Shocks propagate across economic sectors and geographic boundaries through interconnected economies Considerable uncertainty challenges good policy making for resilience

10 Why boosting financial resilience matters. General Government Gross Financial Liabilities, % of GDP, OECD Share of GDP Year Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 94

11 THE NEED FOR GOVERNMENT PLANNING FOR CONTINGENCIES

12 The need for planning for contingencies.. Governments are held accountable for responding to disasters : how can their financial preparedness be strengthened in light of optimal financing of public policies?

13 What risk financing options are there?

14 What risk financing options are there for the government? Ex-ante: reserve funds (funded by tax increases and/or spending reductions), contingent spending arrangements, contingent debt facilities, and private and public insurance (including catastrophe bonds or other catastrophe-linked securities and financial derivatives), as well as re-insurance with international financial institutions Ex-post: domestic and/or foreign borrowing as well as ad-hoc tax increases or spending reductions in other policy areas

15 MAIN ISSUES AND POLICY CHALLENGES

16 Main Issues and Policy Challenges The costs of disasters often represent a contingent liability both on the expenditure side and the revenue side of national budgets Big events have low probabilities but potentially high financial and economic impacts, and are often difficult or impossible to predict These kinds of costs are not easily incorporated into traditional budgeting frameworks Risk financing may entail significant costs for (potentially already constraint) national budgets

17 Main Issues and Policy Challenges (ctd) Governments often expected to fund reconstruction, but also post-disaster relief for citizens and businesses Disasters often associated with reductions in expected tax revenues Financial risks may be positively correlated National government policies (whether they use ex-ante or ex-post approaches) interact with the policies of other levels of government and actions of the private sector, leading to problems associated with moral hazard

18 Key Findings and Policy Recommendations 1. Clarify objectives 2. Recognise all disaster-related contingent liabilities in national budget documents and make them fully transparent 3. Determine the government s degree of prudence and risk aversion 4. Where possible, determine the magnitude and probability of contingent liabilities 5. Be mindful of correlation structure of risks 6. Discount risky revenue streams appropriately 7. Carefully assess the costs and benefits of appropriately structured reserve funds

19 Key Findings and Policy Recommendations (continued) 8. Carefully assess the interaction between ex-ante and ex-post funding mechanisms and moral hazard 9. Clarify rules ex ante for government funding mechanisms 10. Look for alternative ways recouping disaster-related costs 11. Where disaster-related risks are quantifiable, assess the costs and benefits of a variety of more formal risk assessment approaches 12. Where disaster related risks are not quantifiable, assess the costs and benefits of a traffic light approach 13. Engage in stress testing exercises

20 THE OECD RECOMMENDATION ON THE GOVERNANCE OF CRITICAL RISKS

21 The OECD Recommendation on Governance of Critical Risks Its objective: The Recommendation proposes a whole-of-society approach that addresses dimensions that are relevant for all the stakeholders of risk management policies including the private sector, civil society and voluntary organisations

22 OECD Recommendation on the Governance of Critical Risks Five Core Principles Establish a comprehensive, all-hazard and trans-boundary approach to risk governance at the national level Anticipate and build preparedness through foresight capacities and financing frameworks Raise awareness to foster whole-of-society investments in prevention Develop adaptive and inter-agency crisis management capacities Include principles of good governance in risk management decision-making including transparency, accountability and continuous improvement

23 Contingent Liabilities as part of principle 2 of the OECD Recommendation Plan for contingent liabilities within clear public finance frameworks by enhancing efforts to minimise the impact that critical risks may have on public finances and the fiscal position of a country in order to support greater resilience.

24 CEBU action plan Calls for a comprehensive financial protection strategy for APEC economies in light of climate change adaptation agenda and the incidence of natural calamities It is suggested to develop a catalogue of DRF options plus a feasibility study for regional risk pooling OECD suggests to expand the current study framework to provide a crosscountry study on government financial contingency planning sharing lessons from OECD countries with wider APEC economies (such as proposed more widely in the alignment part of the CN on DRF)

25 THANK YOU!