INTEGRATION OF THE LOCAL MITIGATION STRATEGY INTO THE LOCAL COMPREHENSIVE PLAN MANATEE COUNTY PROFILE. Executive Summary

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1 Executive Summary The experiences of the 2004 Hurricane Season epitomize the importance of better integrating hazard mitigation activities into local comprehensive planning. Residents from all over the state experienced significant damages from Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan by either winds, tornadoes, surge, or flooding. But this was not the only time that we have experienced natural disaster, nor will it be the last. In 1992, Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida. In 1998 and 1999, most counties in Florida experienced wildfires. In some cases, despite fire fighters best efforts, the fires advanced through neighborhoods and homes were lost. Every year in Central Florida, new sinkholes emerge swallowing homes and damaging infrastructure. The cost of recovery for these various disasters ranges from hundreds of thousands to billions of dollars, significantly taxing local, state, and federal financial sources. Losses covered through federal funding as a result of the 2004 hurricanes alone could reach as high as $7 billion. Worst of all, however, are the many lives that, directly or indirectly, are lost due to natural disasters. It is imperative that we reduce the human and financial costs of natural disasters. Through better integration of natural hazard considerations into local comprehensive planning, we can build safer communities. This profile of Manatee County has been prepared as part of a statewide effort by the Florida Department of Community Affairs (DCA) to guide local governments on integrating hazard mitigation principles into local comprehensive plans. Through the process outlined in this profile, planners will be able to (1) convey Manatee County s existing and potential risk to identified hazards; (2) assess how well local hazard mitigation principles have been incorporated into the County s Comprehensive Plan; (3) provide recommendations on how hazard mitigation can better be integrated into the Comprehensive Plan; and (4) determine if any enhancements could be made to the LMS to better support comprehensive planning. Best available statewide level data is provided to convey exposure and risk as well as to illustrate the vulnerability assessment component of the integration process. Summary of Recommendations Manatee County s Comprehensive Plan has good integration of hazard mitigation principles and its LMS has adequate data and goals to support comprehensive planning. There are many goals, objectives, and policies that support risk reduction from hurricanes and floods in the LMS and Comprehensive Plan. However, there are always ways to strengthen such plans, and the following is a summary of options for the County to do so. Comprehensive Plan Preliminary Recommendations The following recommendations include hazard mitigation measures in which Manatee County can continue to reduce or eliminate risks from storm surge, flood, and wildfire. These recommendations pertain to the use of vacant lands and/or redevelopment practices. Based on the land use tabulations, most of the vacant acreage is susceptible to flood and tropical cyclone generated storm surge. For more information about the methodology and data used for the land use tabulations, please refer to Section 2. Hazard Vulnerability in this hazards profile. Of the vacant lands, 7,396 acres are susceptible to Category 1 storm surge (CHZ), 7,383 acres are susceptible to Category 1 3 storm surge (HVZ), 14,232 are susceptible to 100-year flood, 4,405 acres are susceptible to wildfire, and 220 acres are susceptible to sinkholes. Susceptibility for surge, flood, and wildfire are based on risk, whereas susceptibility for sinkhole is based on exposure. Therefore, further analysis is needed to determine the level of risk associated with sinkhole hazards. Storm Surge Around 88% of the 7,396 vacant acres in the Coastal High Hazard Area and 86% of the 7,383 vacant acres in the Hurricane Vulnerability Zone are to be developed for residential, commercial, DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS i

2 industrial uses or public facilities, indicating that these risk reduction strategies should be considered prior to development of this vacant land. The Comprehensive Plan should continue using the Coastal Evacuation Area (CEA) and Coastal Storm Vulnerability Area (CSVA) as future land use overlay districts to limit population and infrastructure, whereby no new development will be approved in the velocity zone of the Coastal High Hazard Area (CHHA) over 3 du/ac, no new industrial development will be approved over the allowed intensity in the IL future land use category, no new manufactured homes will be allowed in the Coastal Planning Area, and new acute care medical facilities in the CEA will be prohibited and expansions will be discouraged. The County should continue not allowing new public-funded infrastructure in the CHHA except to improve evacuation clearance times, or new County maintained infrastructure to support new development seaward of the 5 foot topographic contour; minimizing development or relocating structures out of the CEA which have sustained recurring hurricane related damage; maintaining naturally vegetated buffer zones to mitigate surge and tidal velocity, and only accepting the responsibility to maintain new roadways in the CSVA under certain conditions. The County should continue requiring that all project approvals within the CEA meet performance standards in the land development regulations which may include procedures for hurricane shelter capacity and evacuation time standards, mitigation measures such as fair share contribution to preserve sheltering capacity and the maintenance or reduction of evacuation clearance times, and establishing a surcharge or fee to recoup public expenditures for infrastructure after a disaster. The County should continue promoting the clustering of development and transfer of development density/intensity to limit development and reduce storm damage to infrastructure in areas subject to natural disasters in the CSVA, and prohibiting the construction of new or expansion of existing bridges linking the mainland to any island or key unless shown on the Future Traffic Circulation Map. The County should continue coordinating evacuation roadway improvements with the Metropolitan Planning Organization, Manatee County Sheriff s Department, Florida Department of Transportation, and Florida Division of Emergency Management. The County should consider prohibiting new septic tanks and floodproof existing water and wastewater facilities in the CHHA. The Comprehensive Plan should consider not allowing solid waste and commercial hazardous waste management facilities in the HVZ. The County should consider denying requests for residential density increases within the CHHA, above what is included on the Future Land Use Map. The County should consider developing an inventory of transportation disadvantaged persons that would be affected by an evacuation order, and ensure the availability of adequate transportation for safe and timely evacuation of high risk areas. The County should consider prohibiting new schools in the CHHA and retrofitting new schools as shelters outside the HVZ, where possible. The County should consider requiring that the deeds for the sale of land or structures in hurricane vulnerable zones contain a hurricane hazard disclosure statement. The Comprehensive Plan should consider prohibiting the development of nursing homes and adult congregate living facilities inside the CHHA. Building these facilities out of harm s way reduces risk to critical and essential government facilities, and lessens evacuation needs of the special needs population. In addition, the number of evacuees is reduced who are under medical supervision or need medical staff chaperones, potentially reducing hurricane evacuation clearance times. The Comprehensive Plan should consider including a policy to maintain or reduce the hurricane evacuation clearance time published in the FDEM Hurricane Evacuation Study by instituting a level of service (LOS) standard that is tied to levels of development or population. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS ii

3 Flood About 67% of the 14,232 vacant acres in the 100-year floodplain are to be developed for residential, commercial, industrial uses or public facilities, indicating that these risk reduction strategies should be considered prior to development of this vacant land. Wildfire The Comprehensive Plan should continue implementing policies to promote clustering of development and transfer of development density/intensity to limit development in areas subject to natural disasters; prohibit new development (except redevelopment) in the floodway; limit impervious surface within the Watershed Overlay District through the use of pervious materials for paths and driveways, clustering of uses within a single versus multiple structures, transfers of development density/intensity, and using increased setbacks and buffers. The Comprehensive Plan should continue implementing policies for stormwater management that protect natural features and prevent flooding, prohibiting development of interim wastewater treatment plants in areas that flood except if special approval is granted, requiring stormwater management planning and construction of capital improvements to coincide with stormwater drainage requirements to adequately address growth and development, ensuring private stormwater systems are privately funded and maintained, requiring new development to bear the cost of stormwater management so it is not paid for by county taxpayers, and coordinating local stormwater programs with Southwest Florida Water Management District programs and permit requirements. The Comprehensive Plan should continue ensuring that no wetlands are impacted in at least 65% of development projects containing wetlands; prohibiting the removal, alteration, or encroachment within wetlands to minimize development impacts except in cases where no other practical alternative exists; and requiring that all fill within the 100-year floodplain be compensated by creation of storage of an equal or greater volume. The County should consider including a policy for reducing repetitive (flood) loss properties such as at risk property acquisition or elevation. The County should consider including a policy to not approve variances to required flood elevations. The County should consider the requirement for the installation of back-flow preventers on new septic tanks in the 100-year floodplain to mitigate impacts from flood, or create incentives and disincentives to reduce the desirability of septic installation within the 100-year floodplain. The County should consider requiring that all structures built in the 100-year floodplain include at least 1 foot freeboard; the current policy. Many post-disaster building performance/damage assessments have shown that it is advisable to include freeboard to reduce future flood damages. Okaloosa and Brevard Counties, City of Jacksonville and the Santa Rosa Island Authority are example communities that have adopted freeboard requirements. The County should consider requiring that developers incorporate wetland portions of sites within the 100-year floodplain as conservation easements. The County should consider requiring areas that have not established base flood elevations to be studied prior to development. The County should consider calling for compensating storage calculations in all non coastal flood hazard areas. About 58% of the 4,405 vacant acres that are susceptible to wildfire are to be developed for residential, commercial, industrial uses or public facilities, indicating that these risk reduction strategies should be considered prior to development of this vacant land. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS iii

4 Sinkhole The County should consider participating in the Firewise Medal Community program to reduce risks within the wildland urban interface. Where reasonable, consideration should be made to design structures and sites within the County to minimize potential for loss of life and property (e.g., outdoor sprinkler systems, fire-resistant building materials or treatments, and landscaping and site design practices); review proposals for subdivisions, lot splits, and other developments for fire protection needs during site plan review process; coordinate with fire protection service or agencies to determine guidelines for use and development in wildfire-prone areas. The County should consider requirement for all new development to include & implement a wildfire mitigation plan specific to that development, subject to review & approval by the County Fire Rescue Department. The County should consider increasing public awareness of prescribed burning and require management plans for conservation easements that address reduction in wildfire fuels. Sinkhole risk was considered to be very low in the hazards analysis in the latest version of the Manatee County LMS. Sinkhole hazards could be evaluated further in the next update of the hazards analysis of the LMS to determine the risk. However, based on available data, it appears that sinkhole risk is very low. General Include each hazard layer on the existing and future land use maps to determine where risks are possible to target hazard mitigation strategies. The Comprehensive Plan should consider including a policy to incorporate recommendations from existing and future interagency hazard mitigation reports into the Comprehensive Plan during the Evaluation and Appraisal Report process as determined feasible and appropriate by the Board of County Commissioners. The Comprehensive Plan should consider including a policy to incorporate applicable provisions of the Comprehensive Plan into the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan and the Local Mitigation Strategy. Continue educating the public, especially those at high risk from hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, and make them aware of proactive steps they can take to mitigate damage. Local Mitigation Strategy Preliminary Recommendations The following data and information could be included in an update of the LMS. This information could help convey how and where disasters impact the population and the built environment to support comprehensive planning. Include data layers on hazard to illustrate population (i.e., density) or property (i.e., value) exposure. Include a future land use maps that include hazard data layers to illustrate which future land use categories are susceptible to each hazard. Include a quantitative risk assessment for future development (i.e., loss estimates) or specific critical facilities. Use complementary, not contradictory data in the plans such as the LMS, CEMP, and Comprehensive Plan. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS iv

5 Table of Contents 1. County Overview Hazard Vulnerability Existing Mitigation Measures Comprehensive Plan Review Data Sources...16 Attachments A-1 DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS v

6 1. County Overview Geography and Jurisdictions Manatee County is located along the Gulf of Mexico in the western portion of the central Florida peninsula. It covers a total of square miles, of which 741 square miles are land and square miles are water. There are six incorporated municipalities within Manatee County, as shown in Table 1.1. The City of Bradenton serves as the county seat. Population and Demographics According to the April 1, 2004 population estimate by the University of Florida s Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), population estimates for all jurisdictions within Manatee County and the percent change from the 2000 U.S. Census are presented in Table 1.1. While most residents live in unincorporated areas, approximately 74% live in incorporated jurisdictions in the county. Manatee County has experienced significant population growth in recent years, a trend that is expected to continue. Between 1990 and 2000, Manatee County had a growth rate of 24.7%, which was slightly greater than the statewide average of 23.5% for the same time period. Jurisdiction Table 1.1 Population Estimates by Jurisdiction Population (Census 2000) Population (Estimate 2004) Percent Change Percent of Total Population (2004) Unincorporated 191, , % 74.05% Anna Maria 1,814 1, % 0.63% Bradenton 49,504 52, % 17.82% Bradenton Beach 1,482 1, % 0.51% Holmes Beach 4,966 5, % 1.70% Longboat Key (part) 2,591 2, % 0.88% Palmetto 12,571 13, % 4.42% Total 264, , % % Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2004 According to BEBR (2004), Manatee County s population is projected to grow steadily and reach an estimated 453,900 by the year 2030, increasing the average population density of 398 to 613 persons per square mile. Figure 1.1 illustrates medium growth population projections for Manatee County based on 2004 calculations. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 1

7 Figure 1.1 Population Projections for Manatee County, , ,000 Population 400, , , , Year Source: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 2004 Of particular concern within Manatee County s population are those persons with special needs or perhaps limited resources such as the elderly, disabled, low-income or language isolated residents. According to the 2000 Census, of the 264,002 persons residing in Manatee County 24.9% are listed as 65 years old or over, 23.3% are listed as having a disability, 10.1% are listed as below poverty, and 12.3% live in a home where the primary language is other than English. 2. Hazard Vulnerability Hazards Identification The highest risk hazards for Manatee County as identified in the County s Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) are hurricanes and coastal storms, severe storms, flood and severe rain events, wildfires, and port vessel collision or open water hazardous material spill. Sinkholes were discussed in the LMS, but the risk was considered to be very low for the entire county. Hazards Analysis The following analysis examines four hazard types: surge from tropical cyclones, flood, wildfire, and sinkholes. All of the information in this section was obtained through the online Mapping for Emergency Management, Parallel Hazard Information System (MEMPHIS). MEMPHIS was designed to provide a variety of hazard related data in support of the Florida Local Mitigation Strategy DMA 2K project, and was created by Kinetic Analysis Corporation (KAC) under contract with the Florida Department of Community Affairs (DCA). Estimated exposure values were determined using the Category 3 Maxima Scenario for storm surge; FEMA s designated 100-year flood zones (i.e., A, AE, V, VE, AO, 100 IC, IN, AH) for flood; all medium-to-high risk zones from MEMPHIS for wildfire (Level 5 through Level 9); and the combined high, very high, extreme and adjacent zones for sinkhole based on the KAC analysis. Storm surge exposure data is a subset of flood exposure; therefore, the storm surge results are also included in the flood results. For more details on a particular hazard or an explanation of the MEMPHIS methodology, consult the MEMPHIS Web site ( Existing Population Exposure Table 2.1 presents the population currently exposed to each hazard in Manatee County. Of the 264,002 (U.S. Census 2000) people that reside in Manatee County, 14.8% are exposed to storm surge, 22.3% are exposed to 100-year flooding, 37.6% are exposed to wildfire, and 1.3% is exposed to sinkholes. Of the 58,810 people exposed to flood, 35.7% are disabled and 28.5% are over age 65. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 2

8 Table 2.1 Estimated Number of Persons Exposed to Selected Hazards Segment of Population Storm Surge** Flood Wildfire Sinkhole Total (all persons)* 38,946 58,810 99,194 3,645 Minority 1,346 4,593 11, Over 65 14,892 16,756 24, Disabled 14,961 20,973 36,185 1,125 Poverty 2,459 4,333 8, Language-Isolated Single Parent 1,782 2,485 4, Source: Mapping for Emergency Management, Parallel Hazard Information System *Note: The Total amount does not equal the sum of all segments of the population, but indicates the total population at risk to the selected hazards. **Note: Storm surge related flooding population exposure results are a subset of the flood results. Evacuation and Shelters As discussed in the previous sections, population growth in Manatee County has been steady, and the trend is projected to continue. Additionally, storm events requiring evacuation typically impact large areas, often forcing multiple counties to issue evacuation orders simultaneously and placing a greater cumulative number of evacuees on the roadways which may slow evacuation time further. Thus, it is important to not only consider evacuation times for Manatee County, but also for other counties in the region as shown in Table 2.2. Also, population that will reside in new housing stock might not be required to evacuate as new construction will be built to higher codes and standards. Table 2.2 County Clearance Times per Hurricane Category (Hours) (High Tourist Occupancy, Medium Response) County Category 1 Hurricane Category 2 Hurricane Category 3 Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Category 5 Hurricane Hernando Hillsborough Manatee Pasco Pinellas Source: DCA, DEM Hurricane Evacuation Study Database, 2005 As the population increases in the future, the demand for shelter space and the length of time to evacuate will increase, unless measures are taken now. Currently, it is expected to take between 11 and 19 hours to safely evacuate Manatee County depending on the corresponding magnitude of the storm, as shown in Table 2.2. This data was derived from eleven regional Hurricane Evacuation Studies that have been produced by FEMA, the United States Army Corps of Engineers and Regional Planning Councils in Florida. The study dates range from 1995 to These regional studies are updated on a rotating basis. Similar to most of Florida s coastal counties, Manatee County currently has a significant shelter deficit. According to Florida s Statewide Emergency Shelter Plan, Manatee County has an existing shelter capacity of 23,024 people. The 2004 shelter demand for a Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane is 42,425 people, leaving an existing shelter deficit of 19,401. In 2009, the projected shelter demand is 47,089, leaving an anticipated shelter deficit of 24,065. Per an objective in the Coastal Element (9J-5.012(3)(b)7.), counties must maintain or reduce hurricane evacuation times. This could be accomplished by using better topographical data to DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 3

9 determine the surge risk to populations to evaluate which areas to evacuate, and increasing the ability to shelter in place to decrease the number of evacuees. Manatee County could encourage new homes to be built with saferooms, community centers in mobile home parks or developments to be built to shelter standards (outside of the hurricane vulnerability zones), or require that new schools be built or existing schools be retrofitted to shelter standards; which would be based on FEMA saferoom and American Red Cross shelter standards. Additionally, the county could establish level of service (LOS) standards that are tied to development. Existing Built Environment Exposure While the concern for human life is always highest in preparing for a natural disaster, there are also substantial economic impacts to local communities, regions, and even the state when property damages are incurred. To be truly sustainable in the face of natural hazards, we must work to protect the residents and also to limit, as much as possible, property losses that slow down a community s ability to bounce back from a disaster. Table 2.3 presents estimates of the number of structures in Manatee County by occupancy type that are exposed to each of the hazards being analyzed. Exposure refers to the number of people or structures that are susceptible to loss of life, property damage and economic impact due to a particular hazard. The estimated exposure of Manatee County s existing structures to the storm surge, flood, wildfire, and sinkhole hazards was determined through MEMPHIS. Table 2.3 Estimated Number of Structures Exposed to Selected Hazards Occupancy Type Storm Surge* Flood Wildfire Sinkhole Single Family 9,912 35,031 24,943 1,483 Mobile Home 1,762 35,418 6, Multi-Family 10,984 17,132 12, Commercial 818 6,328 2, Agriculture 147 3,972 1, Gov. / Institutional , Total 23,953 98,643 48,370 2,030 Source: Mapping for Emergency Management, Parallel Hazard Information System *Note: Storm surge related flooding building exposure results are a subset of the flood results. There are 149,043 structures exposed to at least one of the four hazards, of which most are single-family homes in subdivisions. Of these structures, 66.2% are exposed to flood. Over 98,000 structures are located within the 100-year floodplain, of which 24.3% are exposed to storm surge induced flooding. Slightly more than 41.4% of the structures exposed to surge are single-family homes, and 45.9% are multi-family homes. Typically, structures exposed to surge are high-value real estate due to their proximity to the ocean or tidally influenced water bodies According to the latest National Flood Insurance Program Repetitive Loss Properties list, as of March 2005, there are 109 repetitive loss properties in unincorporated areas of Manatee County. Under the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), repetitive loss properties are defined as any NFIP-insured property that, since 1978 and regardless of any change(s) of ownership during that period, has experienced: a) four or more paid flood losses; or b) two paid flood losses within a 10-year period that equal or exceed the current value of the insured property; or c) three or more paid losses that equal or exceed the current value of the insured property. Over 32%, or 48,370 structures are exposed to wildfire, of which 51.6% are single-family homes. As the population of unincorporated Manatee County continues to increase, particularly east of Interstate 75, the number of residents within the wildland/urban interface will continue to rise (Manatee County LMS, 2004). Only 1.4% or 2,030 structures are located within sinkholes susceptible areas, of which 73.1% are single-family homes. In addition to understanding exposure, risk assessment results must also be considered for prioritizing and implementing hazard mitigation measures. The risk assessment takes into DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 4

10 account the probability (how often) and severity (e.g., flood depth, storm surge velocity, wildfire duration) of the hazard as it impacts people and property. Risk can be described qualitatively, using terms like high, medium or low; or quantitatively by estimating the losses to be expected from a specific hazard event expressed in dollars of future expected losses. Although people and property are exposed to hazards, losses can be greatly reduced through building practices, land use, and structural hazard mitigation measures. The next section of this report examines the existing and future land use acreage in hazard areas. This information can be useful to consider where to implement risk reducing comprehensive planning measures. Analysis of Current and Future Vulnerability Based on Land Use The previous hazards analysis section discussed population and existing structures exposed to surge, flood, sinkholes, and wildfire according to MEMPHIS estimates. This section is used to demonstrate the County s vulnerabilities to these hazards in both tabular format and spatially, in relation to existing and future land uses. DCA tabulated the total amount of acres and percentage of land in identified hazard exposure areas, sorted by existing land use category for the unincorporated areas. Existing land use data was acquired from County Property Appraisers and the Florida Department of Revenue in DCA also tabulated the total amount of acres and percentage of land in the identified hazards areas sorted by their future land use category according to the local Future Land Use Map (FLUM), as well as the amount of these lands listed as vacant according to existing land use. Manatee County future land use data was acquired in May 2004 and might not reflect changes per recent future land use amendments. DCA has provided maps of existing land use within hazard areas based on the 2004 County Property Appraiser geographic information system (GIS) shapefiles. Maps of future land uses in hazard areas were developed using the Manatee County future land use map dated May A series of maps were created as part of the analysis and are available as attachments to the county profile. All maps are for general planning purposes only. For the purposes of this profile, the identified hazard areas include the coastal hazards zone in relation to storm surge, hurricane vulnerability zones in relation to evacuation clearance times, flood zones in relation to the 100-year flood, wildfire susceptible areas, and sinkhole susceptible areas. In Attachment A, two maps present the existing and future land uses within the Coastal Hazards Zone (CHZ), which represents the Category 1 Hurricane Evacuation Zone joined with the Category 1 Storm Surge Zone, to fully demonstrate all areas that are prone to storm surge. The areas that are most susceptible to storm surge are located in the coastal communities adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, along the Manatee and Braden Rivers, and in the central portion of the county. The total amount of land in the CHZ is 21,705.9 acres. As shown in Table 2.4, 34.1% are currently undeveloped; 24.2% are in agricultural use; 15.6% are parks, conservation areas and golf courses; and 14.1% are used for residential single-family homes. Table 2.5 shows that of the 7,395.5 undeveloped acres, 49.1% are designated as urban fringe. The County has taken favorable action in designating 49.1% as urban fringe, as this area is slated for low density development at 3 dwelling units per gross acre. In Attachment B, two maps present the existing and future land uses within the Hurricane Vulnerability Zone (HVZ), which represents Category 1 to 3 Hurricane Evacuation Zones. The areas that are most susceptible to storm surge are located in the coastal communities adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico, along the Manatee and Braden Rivers, in the central and western portions of the county. The total amount of land in the HVZ is 21,691 acres. As shown in Table 2.4, 34% are currently undeveloped; 24.2% are in agricultural use; 15.6% are parks, conservation areas and golf courses; and 14.2% are used for residential single-family homes. Table 2.5 shows that of the 7,383.2 undeveloped acres, 48.9% are designated as urban fringe. The County has taken favorable action in designating 48.9% as urban fringe, as this area is slated for low density development at 3 dwelling units per gross acre. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 5

11 In Attachment C, two maps present the existing and future land uses within a 100-year flood zone. There are flood-prone areas scattered across the County, primarily in the western and southeastern portions of the County, especially surrounding the many creeks, streams and tidal wetlands including the Manatee and Braden Rivers and along the coastline. The total amount of land in the special flood hazard area is 86,554.9 acres. As shown in Table 2.4, 47.2% are in agricultural use; 21.6% are parks, conservation areas and golf courses; 16.4% are currently undeveloped; and 5.7% are used for residential single-family homes. Table 2.5 shows that of the 14,232.1 undeveloped acres, 32.2% are designated for agriculture/rural residential development. The County has taken favorable action in designating a portion of vacant acreage in the 100-year flood zone for low dwelling density. In Attachment D, two maps present the existing and future land uses within wildfire susceptible areas. These small areas are scattered across the County, predominately in the central portion. The total amount of land in the wildfire susceptible areas is 19,304.9 acres. As shown in Table 2.4, 25.8% are in agricultural use; 22.9% are used for residential single-family homes; 22.8% are currently undeveloped; and 15.2% are parks, conservation areas and golf courses. Table 2.5 shows that of the 4,405.3 undeveloped acres, 41.8% are designated for agriculture/rural residential development. The County should continue to take measures to reduce wildfire risk within the urban/rural interface. In Attachment E, two maps present the existing and future land uses within sinkhole susceptible areas. These few small concentrated areas are located in Bradenton, as well as in the northcentral and southeastern parts of the County. The total amount of land in the sinkhole susceptible areas is 1,679.9 acres. As shown in Table 2.4, 65.9% are in agricultural use; 13.3% are used for residential single-family homes; 13.1% are currently undeveloped; and 3.5% are currently used for residential group quarters and nursing homes. Table 2.5 shows that of the undeveloped acres, 62.3% are designated as urban fringe. The County might want to conduct additional research to determine the level of risk associated with developing the acres in urban fringe areas, so that mitigation measures can be implemented if warranted. DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 6

12 Table 2.4 Total Unincorporated Acres in Hazard Areas by Existing Land Use Category Existing Land Use Category Coastal Hazard Zone Hurricane Vulnerability Zone Flood Zones Wildfire Susceptible Areas Sinkhole Susceptible Areas Acres 5, , , , ,107.5 Agriculture % Attractions, Stadiums, Acres Lodging % Acres Places of Worship % Acres Commercial % Government, Institutional, Acres 1, , , , Hospitals, Education % Acres Industrial % Parks, Conservation Acres 3, , , , Areas, Golf Courses % Residential Group Acres Quarters, Nursing Homes % Acres Residential Multi-Family % Residential Mobile Home, or Commercial Parking Acres Lot % Acres 3, , , , Residential Single-Family % Submerged Land (Water Acres Bodies) % Transportation, Communication, Rights- Acres Of-Way % Utility Plants and Lines, Acres Solid Waste Disposal % Acres 7, , , , Vacant % Acres 21, , , , ,679.9 Total Acres % Source: Department of Community Affairs DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 7

13 Table 2.5 Total Unincorporated Acres in Hazard Areas by Future Land Use Category Coastal Hazard Zone Hurricane Vulnerability Zone Wildfire Susceptible Areas Sinkhole Susceptible Areas Future Land Use Flood Zones Category Total Vacant Total Vacant Total Vacant Total Vacant Total Vacant Agriculture/ Rural Acres , , , , Residential % Acres 2, , , Conservation % Industrial - Acres , Heavy % Industrial - Acres , Light % Industrial - Acres Urban % Acres Mixed Use % Office Low Acres Intensity % Public/ Semi- Acres , , Public 1 % Public/ Semi- Acres Public 2 % Recreation/ Acres , Open Space % Acres 2, , , , , RES-1 % Acres RES-16 % Acres 1, , , RES-3 % Acres 2, , , , , RES-6 % Acres 1, , , RES-9 % Retail/ Office/ Acres Residential % Acres 8, , , , , , , Urban Fringe % Acres 21, , , , , , , , , Total Acres % Source: Department of Community Affairs DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 8

14 The amount of total land and existing vacant land in identified hazard areas was also tabulated for each of Manatee County s six incorporated municipalities. These amounts are listed in Table 2.6. The intent of this table is to show the vacant acreage in hazard zones in each municipality, and to show the percentage of vacant acreage in each hazard zone for each municipality. In the total column for each hazard, the percentage for each municipality is the hazard zone acreage as a percent of total hazard acreage for all municipalities. In the vacant column for each hazard, the percentage for each municipality is the percent of area in the hazard zone for the respective municipality. The total municipal percent of vacant acreage is the percent of acreage in the hazard zones for all municipalities. No municipality has any acreage located in the hazard vulnerability zone (HVZ). The City of Bradenton has the most vacant acres in the Coastal Hazards Zone, but Palmetto has the largest proportion of surge prone acres out of its vacant land area. The City of Bradenton has the most acres in the flood zone as well as the largest proportion of flood zone acres out of its vacant land area. The City of Bradenton is the only municipality with acreage susceptible to wildfire or sinkholes. Vacant land is often destined to be developed. It is prudent to conduct further analyses of what the vacant lands will be used for, to determine whether they will be populated, and at what level of intensity/density, to ensure that hazard risks are minimized or eliminated. Each of the municipalities in Manatee County has vacant lands that are in hazard areas. Since hazards cross jurisdictional boundaries, it is important to consider all hazard areas to collaboratively formulate hazard mitigation strategies and policies throughout the county. Table 2.6 Total Land and Existing Vacant Land in Hazard Areas by Municipal Jurisdiction Coastal Hazard Zone Flood Zones Wildfire Susceptible Areas Sinkhole Susceptible Areas Jurisdiction Total Vacant Total Vacant Total Vacant Total Vacant Acres Anna Maria % Acres 1, , Bradenton % Bradenton Acres Beach % Holmes Acres Beach % Longboat Acres , Key % Acres , Palmetto % Total Municipal Acres 3, , , , Acres % Source: Department of Community Affairs DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 9

15 3. Existing Mitigation Measures Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Assessment The Local Mitigation Strategy is suited to be a repository for all hazard mitigation analyses (i.e., vulnerability and risk assessment), programs, policies and projects for the county and municipalities. The LMS identifies hazard mitigation needs in a community and alternative structural and nonstructural initiatives that can be employed to reduce community vulnerability to natural hazards. The LMS is multi-jurisdictional and intergovernmental in nature. Communities can reduce their vulnerability to natural hazards by integrating the LMS analyses and mitigation priorities into the local government comprehensive plan. As noted in DCA s Protecting Florida s Communities Guide, one significant strategy for reducing community vulnerability is to manage the development and redevelopment of land exposed to natural hazards. Where vacant land is exposed to hazard forces, local government decisions about allowable land uses, and the provision of public facilities and infrastructure to support those uses, can have major impacts on the extent to which the community makes itself vulnerable to natural hazards. Where communities are already established and land is predominately built out, local governments can take initiatives to reduce existing levels of vulnerability by altering current land uses both in the aftermath of disasters, when opportunities for redevelopment may arise, and under blue sky conditions as part of planned redevelopment initiatives. Per the DCA s Protecting Florida s Communities Guide, LMSes prepared pursuant to the state s guidelines (Florida Department of Community Affairs, 1998) have three substantive components: Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment. This section identifies a community s vulnerability to natural hazards. Under Florida rules, the HIVA is required to include, at a minimum, an evaluation of the vulnerability of structures, infrastructure, special risk populations, environmental resources, and the economy to any hazard to which the community is susceptible. According to FEMA, LMSes revised pursuant to the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 (DMA 2000) criteria must include maps and descriptions of the areas that would be affected by each hazard to which the jurisdiction is exposed, information on previous events, and estimates of future probabilities. Vulnerability should be assessed for the types and numbers of exposed buildings, infrastructure, and critical facilities with estimates of potential dollar losses. Plan updates will be required to assess the vulnerability of future growth and development. Guiding Principles. This section lists and assesses the community s existing hazard mitigation policies and programs and their impacts on community vulnerability. This section typically contains a list of existing policies from the community s Comprehensive Plan and local ordinances that govern or are related to hazard mitigation. Coastal counties frequently include policies from their PDRPs. Mitigation Initiatives. This component identifies and prioritizes structural and nonstructural initiatives that can reduce hazards vulnerability. Proposals for amendments to Comprehensive Plans, land development regulations, and building codes are often included. Structural projects typically address public facilities and infrastructure, and buyouts of private structures that are repetitively damaged by flood. Many of these qualify as capital improvement projects based on the magnitude of their costs and may also be included in the capital improvements elements of the counties and cities Comprehensive Plans. The Manatee County LMS (adopted in 2004) was assessed to determine if the hazard analysis and vulnerability assessment (i.e., surge, flood, wildfire, and sinkhole) data can support comprehensive planning, whether the guiding principles include a comprehensive list of policies for the county and municipalities, and whether the LMS goals and objectives support comprehensive planning goals, objectives, and policies (GOP). DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 10

16 Hazard Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment (Page 25-64; and Section X includes maps). The strengths and weaknesses of the Hazard Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment are as follows: Strengths: Provides information about demographic, income, and special needs population. Provides population and property exposure to flood, wind, tornado risk, sinkhole potential, wildfire potential, 500+ year tsunami zone and USGS 50-year ground motion. Provides a hazards analysis, and a qualitative vulnerability assessment for specific occupancy classes including critical facilities. Provides a clear description of geographic areas exposed to each of the hazards. Includes maps for each of the hazards. Includes a qualitative risk assessment table outlining probability/vulnerability to each hazard for each jurisdiction. Includes a quantitative risk assessment for existing development. Includes a future land use map. Includes a detailed inventory and maps of numerous types of critical facilities. Includes a list of repetitive losses. Weaknesses: Hazard maps do not include data layers to illustrate population (i.e., density) or property (i.e., value) exposure. Does not include a future land use maps that include hazard data layers to illustrate which future land use categories are susceptible to each hazard. Does not include a quantitative risk assessment for future development (i.e., loss estimates) or specific critical facilities. Incorporating land use and population data into the risk assessment of the LMS provides a better source of data for planners to use in policy making and policy evaluation of the local comprehensive plan. The LMS also sets a standard for the quality of data that should be used in determining risk and thereby used to determine mitigation policies. Guiding Principles The Manatee County LMS Guiding Principles section contains a list of policies for the county and each municipality. Appendix F in the Manatee County LMS includes the activity (e.g. flood damage prevention ordinance or prohibit seawalls) and the evaluation of the effectiveness of each activity. The Guiding Principles section is found in most counties LMSes and is useful in providing the different jurisdictions ideas for enhancing their own plans or providing the LMS committee an analysis of where there may be weaknesses in implementing mitigation strategies. LMS Goals and Objectives The Manatee County LMS has goals and objectives that support mitigation principles that are found in the comprehensive plan. A list of the LMS goals and objectives pertaining to comprehensive planning can be found in Attachment F. The following is a summary of the LMS goals and objectives that support comprehensive plan GOPs. Goal 1 strives to maximize hazard prevention and mitigation efforts and minimize the adverse affects of a disaster/hazard event on the residents of Manatee County. This goal is supported by numerous objectives, including to continue to take those steps necessary to prepare for, respond to, minimize the affects of, and redevelop from hurricanes and coastal storms; severe storms and their associated hazards; flooding and severe rainfall events; coastal and riverine erosion; winter storms and freezes; droughts and heat waves; sinkholes; wildfires; hazardous material incidents; DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 11

17 flooding from and/or failure of the Lake Manatee Dam, Ward Dam and Lake Parrish cooling pond; and utility failures/power outages. Other objectives include continuing to take measures to protect and assure delivery of potable (drinking) water and services throughout the county and the City of Bradenton. Goal 2 states that existing and future ordinances, resolutions, standards, policies, and agreements (as applicable) shall promote and improve hazard mitigation within Manatee County. This is supported by several ongoing objectives: By December 2004, review, and, as appropriate, strengthen and enhance enforcement of current ordinances, resolutions, standards, and policies related to all hazards prevention and mitigation; annually review and, where appropriate, strengthen ordinances, codes, resolutions, standards, policies, and agreements related to all hazards prevention and mitigation; continue to plan for and develop mitigation strategies which addresses those hazards identified within this LMS to which the county is vulnerable; ensure the continued support, development, and implementation of hazard mitigation initiatives; local governments within Manatee County shall coordinate with the Division of Emergency Management in developing strategies for addressing the pre- and post-disaster needs of the special needs population; continue to develop funding mechanisms which could be used for approved county-wide mitigation initiatives; emphasize mitigation goals during the annual preparation of capital improvement budgets, with special attention paid to the prioritization of regional, interlocal, and local projects; participating local governments shall emphasize mitigation funding during the annual budget process; and all participating local governments shall incorporate references to the LMS into their respective comprehensive plan. Goal 3 strives for a reduction in the number of repetitive loss properties and other associated actions. Objectives include: encourage the retrofitting of repetitive loss properties where financially and environmentally feasible; consider the acquisition of wetland, floodplain, and repetitive loss properties where retrofitting is not a viable option; reduce the vulnerability of identified critical facilities through ongoing implementation of the LMS; and consider the retrofitting and/or relocation of threatened critical facilities (where financially and environmentally sound and consistent with the adopted Comprehensive Plan). Goal 4 seeks to establish and maintain effective communication mechanisms and operational procedures, training, and opportunities. As a related ongoing objective, the county plans to continue and to enhance the implementation of interlocal stormwater management planning. Goal 5 emphasizes the establishment and maintenance of an adequate emergency shelter capacity for the residents of Manatee County. This goal is supported by objectives which mandate the development/identification of at least one emergency shelter which has an adjacent pet shelter, as well as the development of a plan and identify locations for refuges of last resort. Maintaining consistent language for outlining goals and objectives in both the LMS and comprehensive plan presents a united front on decreasing risk in the county. While the LMS may not be able to regulate land use as the comprehensive plan does, having these common goals and objectives increases the likelihood of the jurisdictions of Manatee County adopting and implementing corresponding policies that are legally enforceable. Comprehensive Emergency Operations Plan (CEMP) The Manatee County CEMP references the LMS in Annex 2: Recovery and Mitigation. The CEMP notes that all pre-disaster mitigation priorities and projects, as well as specific disasterscenario mitigation functions, are generated through the LMS through the LMS Technical Working Group. Post-disaster mitigation priorities consider the LMS, in addition to damage assessment reports and the County EOC Command s expertise. The CEMP discusses hazard mitigation in the context of standard operating procedures, activities, responsibilities and available programs. This includes the post-disaster implementation of available disaster mitigation, response and recovery assistance programs, as well as pre-disaster mitigation programs such as the National Flood Insurance Program, Community Rating System, Hazard Mitigation Grant DRAFT 3/8/2006 FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS 12