PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTEXT, TOOLS AND REAL WORLD APPLICATIONS. Mairav Mintz, PE, CCM Sagar Khadka, DRMP, FAACE

Transcription

1 PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT: CONTEXT, TOOLS AND REAL WORLD 1 APPLICATIONS Mairav Mintz, PE, CCM Sagar Khadka, DRMP, FAACE 2018 Project Management Symposium Friday, May 11, :45am to 10:15am

2 Project Risk Management: Perspective Construction Projects: On Time within Budget? Industry Trend: Current Practice of Risk Management Project Risk Management: Practical Tools for Any Project Risk Management Overview Schedule Risk Analysis Cost Risk Analysis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis (ICSRA) Real World Example Outline GAO Mandated ICSRA: Multi-Phase, Historic Renovation 2

3 Project Risk Management: Perspective Construction Projects: On Time within Budget? In a study of 258 transportation infrastructure projects* Completed between 1927 and 1998 On five continents In 20 countries $90 Billion in (1995 prices) Cost overruns were prevalent 9 out of 10 projects Affected projects in all 20 countries In MBP s own research from a review of over 2,500 schedules No instance of cost >100% and time <100% Cost overruns correlate with schedule delays 3 *Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette Skamris Holm, and Søren Buhl Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 68, No. 3, Summer 2002

4 Project Risk Management: Perspective In a 2017 Dodge Data & Analytics Study** - Data gathered from over 500 respondents Owners, general contractors, trade contractors Examined 25 different risk factors and 10 different risk evaluation and mitigation approaches 75% of respondents reported experiencing a dispute or claim in the last five years For transportation projects, that number was over 80% Dodge reported that the construction industry has seen a shift from recession to higher levels of activity, but the risk landscape has just changed, not declined 4 ** Managing Risk in the Construction Industry Dodge Data & Analytics SmartMarket Report, 2017

5 Project Risk Management: Perspective Industry Trend: Current Practice of Risk Management GAO is responsible for assisting Congress in the oversight of federal agencies including their stewardship of public funds GAO has established best practice guides GAO Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide - Best Practices for Developing and Managing Capital Program Costs, GAO-09-3SP, March 2009 GAO Schedule Assessment Guide Best Practices for Project Schedules, GAO-16-89G, December 2015 GAO mandates that project budget and duration consider risks and uncertainty GAO mandates agencies incorporate and implement a rigorous risk management program 5

6 Risk Management Overview Risk Management Traditional Risk Management Project Risk Management Known and Insurable Bonds, Insurance & Warranties Safety & Accident Prevention Dispute Resolution Provisions Scope Creep, Force Majeure Default, Professional Liability. Known and Unknown Incomplete Design Defective Plans & Specification Inadequate Site Investigation Unrealistic Schedule, Budget Unforeseen conditions. Tools Tools Contract Documents, Plans & Specs Schedule Risk Analysis Cost Risk Analysis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Risk Register & On-going Project Risk Management 6

7 Project Risk Management Model 7 14

8 Project Risk Management Risk Matrix and Project Risk Register An active and forward looking tool to: Identify foreseeable risk events Analyze the potential impact of each risk event on the project Prioritize risks based on the severity of impact through the use of a Risk Matrix and Risk Register Create problem solving strategies to mitigate risk impacts Keep an eye on each risk until it has been averted, mitigated or resolved Project risk management is a continuous effort 8

9 Schedule Risk Analysis Project Risk Management Will my project complete on time? Project Risks Tools Schedule Risk Analysis Cost Risk Analysis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Risk Register & Ongoing Project Risk Management 9

10 Schedule Risk Analysis In quantitative risk analysis Risk and Uncertainty are applied to the CPM schedule activities to assess their impact on project schedule NTP Permit Mobilization Demolition Excavation Concrete Structure Interior/MEP/Cx/Accreditation Conceptual Project Schedule Project Completion Demobilization 10

11 Schedule Risk Analysis - Uncertainty 15% 35 Days (most likely) 10% 0% 30 Days (min) 45 Days (max) (Inherent variability in activity duration, cost estimates) 11

12 Schedule Risk Analysis Uncertainty & Risks Risk Driver as Threat pushes cost, schedule duration 15% 35 Days (most likely) 10% 0% 30 Days (min) 55 Days (max) (External factors that affect estimates, duration) 12

13 Schedule Risk Analysis - Opportunity Risk Driver as Opportunity improves cost, schedule duration 15% 35 Days (most likely) 10% 0% 20 Days (min) 45 Days (max) (External factors that affect estimates, duration) 13

14 Schedule Risk Analysis NTP Permit Mob Demolition Excavation Conceptual Project Schedule Concrete Structure Interior/MEP/Cx/Accreditation Project Completion Project Delay Demob NTP Risk: difficulty getting permit Permit Mob Demolition Conceptual Project Schedule (with uncertainty and risks) Risk: Unforeseen conditions, rock, Excavation Risk: batching plant, excessive heat, steel delivery, skilled labor Risk: Availability of MEP trade Project Completion 14 Risk: difficulty getting workers screened Concrete Structure Interior/MEP/Cx/Accreditation Demob

15 Schedule Risk Analysis Schedule Risk Analysis and Time Contingency 800 Schedule Risk Analysis Entire Plan : Finish Date 100% % % % % (P80) or 80% Confidence % % % Hits % % % % % % Cumulative Frequency Schedule Time Contingency 30% % % % % % Distribution (start of interval) 0% Deterministic Date 15

16 Cost Risk Analysis Project Risk Management Project Risks Tools Will my project complete within budget? Schedule Risk Analysis Cost Risk Analysis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Risk Register & Ongoing Project Risk Management 16

17 Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Project Risk Management Project Risks Tools Will my project complete within budget and on time? Schedule Risk Analysis Cost Risk Analysis Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Risk Register & Ongoing Project Risk Management 17

18 Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Why perform an integrated cost-schedule risk analysis? (P80) or 80% Confidence Cost Contingency Cost risk analysis calculates a cost contingency but does not account for the cost impact associated with schedule overrun Schedule risk analysis calculates a time contingency but does not consider the cost overrun associated with schedule slippage (P80) or 80% Confidence Schedule Time Contingency Deterministic Cost Deterministic Date 18

19 Process Overview Project Execution Plan (Baseline Schedule, Plans and Specs) Cost-Loaded CPM Summary Schedule Individual Risk Interviews Evaluation of Cost-Loaded CPM Schedule against GAO s Ten Best Practices Finalize Schedule Pre-Mitigated Risk Modeling and Analysis Pre-Mitigated Risk Results Group Risk Mitigation Workshop Mitigated Risk Data Post-Mitigated Risk Modeling and Analysis Draft Risk Results

20 Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Characteristics of Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis Utilizes a cost-loaded CPM schedule, which includes: Direct costs Time dependent costs Excludes estimated contingencies Risk driver method considers: Uncertainty External risks Results of this Analysis Quantifies the impact of schedule slippage on project cost Identifies the top schedule and cost risk drivers Can develop risk mitigation strategies for top risks 20

21 Case Study: GAO Mandated ICS Risk Analysis Multi-Phase Historic Renovation Complete building interior and exterior restoration including infrastructure Removal/replacement of building s top floor Five-phase, 10-year construction effort Fully occupied building; VIP occupants Secured access Urban setting with no laydown areas Situated in a residential neighborhood Historic renovation $750 million budget Intractable completion dates for each phase 21

22 Case Study: GAO Mandated ICS Risk Analysis Multi-Phase Historic Renovation UNIQUE PHASING CONSIDERATIONS Pre-Phase 1 Move Move Pre-Phase 2 Pre-Phase 3 Pre-Phase 4 Move Move Move Phase 0 Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Move Move Move Jan 2015 Jan 2017 Jan 2019 Jan 2021 Jan 2023 Jan 2025 Completion Date: December 2024 Project Total Budget: $752.7 million 22

23 Case Study: GAO Mandated ICS Risk Analysis Multi-Phase Historic Renovation UNIQUE PHASING CONSIDERATIONS Pre-Phase 2 Move-Out Pre-Phase 3 Move-Out Phase 1 Move-In Move-In Phase 2 Jan 2017 Jan Year Delay Jan 2021 Dec 1st Dec 1st Failure to complete a phase on time would result in missing a move cycle and an immediate two year delay 23

24 Case Study: GAO Mandated ICS Risk Analysis Multi-Phase Historic Renovation Pre-Phase 2 Move-Out Pre-Phase 3 Move-Out Phase 1 Move-In Move-In Phase 2 2 Years Delay 24 Jan 2017 Jan 2019 Jan 2021 Dec 1st Dec 1st Results with risk from pre-mitigated simulation, at the 80 th percentile: Projected to miss move cycle for all of Phases 1-4 Projected finish date of 2035, 11 years beyond the required completion date Cost, with inflation including contingency, rises to $1 billion, $250 million above budget Results from the initial Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis - prior to the risk mitigation workshop - were not acceptable

25 Case Study: GAO Mandated ICS Risk Analysis Multi-Phase Historic Renovation Project Team worked hard during the Risk Mitigation Workshops: Reviewed Risk Parameters Probability Duration Impact Parameters Cost Impact Parameters Developed Mitigation Strategies Agree on Mitigation Strategies Make commitments Create Action Items (for follow through) Revised Risk Parameters based on the Mitigation Strategies Selected Probability Duration Impact Parameters Cost Impact Parameters 25

26 Case Study: GAO Mandated ICS Risk Analysis Multi-Phase Historic Renovation Three risk mitigation workshops were required before arriving at mitigations that achieved project objectives: In lieu of acceleration to gain back time, the Project Team elected to proceed with an early start process to allow for: Early bid package buyout Early start of key submittals Early start of long lead item procurement This achieved the necessary schedule objectives Also, the cost savings associated with the early start scenario vs mandated acceleration was significant 26

27 Recap Multiple tools are available to manage project risk: Will my project finish on time? Consider schedule risk analysis Will my project stay within budget? Consider cost risk analysis How will risk and uncertainty impact my project s cost and schedule objectives? Consider integrated costschedule risk analysis How do I keep my project on track? Consider a risk matrix and risk register as part of a regular risk management program Plan, identify, analyze, monitor, and mitigate risks Prioritize and allocate resources where they are needed most 27