LIVE EVERY WEDNESDAY. New York London Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo. All the dial-in details are available at the back of this document ROBERT MCADIE NOV
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1 16 NOV 2016 LIVE EVERY WEDNESDAY New York London Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo 08:00 13:00 20:00 20:00 21:00 PASSWORD The BNP Paribas Markets Call All the dial-in details are available at the back of this document ROBERT MCADIE Global Markets Head of Research and Strategy Non Independent Research Marketing Communication Please refer to important information at the end of the report. This document is classified as non-objective research.
2 Higher yields and steeper will lead to a repricing of risk premium across most asset classes prices are not reflecting this new environment Overview: Post US election we see even more pressure for higher yields and steeper curves. We also look for more political risk premium to reappear in Europe. This is happening on the back of economic data (such as PMIs) that have steadily been improving and support the case for a Fed rate hike in December and a more hawkish profile for With risk-free bonds in ever deeper correction, investors that are still up YTD will hesitate to buy in a falling price environment. This backdrop is unsupportive for core bonds and risky assets. Higher rates and a steeper curve will diminish the appeal of carry trades. In the US investors should position for growth now, not carry. EM and HY are the most at risk, since they have been used as a coupon clipping alternative. After a calm period, EM FX is showing the first sign of a correction and will drop more on a stronger USD and higher real rates. A reflationary environment will drive sector differentiation in equities but beware of rising real rates..overall position: Inflation breakevens to rise a lot further. Nominal and real yields to continue to rise, with volatility rising. Long end of curves to steepen. Risk assets to correct, especially the more risky ones that had been the recipients of carry trades (like EM). 15/11/2016 LDN close 1 Month prognosis Current vs prognosis EURUSD % GBPUSD % USDJPY % 10yr Gilts 138 bp bp 10yr Bunds 30.8 bp bp 10 Tsys 2.22% 2.40% 0.18 % 10yr JGBs 1 bp 0-1 bp S&P 2,169 2, % SX5E 3,050 2, % SX7E % FTSE 100 6,793 6, % Nikkei ,668 17, % GOLD 1,227 1, % Oil (CL1) % Itraxx Main S26 78bp 83 5 bp Itraxx Xover S26 342bp bp CDX IG S27 77bp 81 4 bp Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas Note: Targets have been updated as most have been reached 2
3 Market picture after the US election: lower bond prices, higher volatility. This could adjust further duration is not your friend. Asset class YTD perf Past mth perf Realised Vol (3m) Current OAS OAS one mth ago Yield one Yield today mth ago Duration Rating Germany 10y 3.09% -1.97% 3.97% AAA US 10y 2.36% -3.09% 5.23% AAA EUR HG corp 4.10% -1.23% 2.00% A- EUR HY corp 6.59% -0.67% 2.12% BB- USD HG corp 5.73% -2.47% 4.39% A- USD HY corp 13.67% -2.19% 3.55% B+ EM SOV 7.28% -5.56% 8.06% BB+ EM corp 6.63% -3.61% 5.02% BBB+ EM Sov HY 10.98% -5.18% 8.03% B+ S&P 500 (*) % 10.84% ESTX 600 (*) % 12.10% (*) for equity indices, we look at the earning yield Chart 1: Realised PX volatility (risk free bonds more volatile than HG bonds) Chart 2: EM volatility surges, led by government bonds 7.00% 6.00% 6.00% 5.00% German gvt 5.00% EM corportates 4.00% 4.00% 3.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% EUR HG 2.00% Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 3
4 Term premium to rise a lot further, pushing nominal and real yields higher Chart 1: German and US rates are moving in close sync (%) Chart 2: Long-term (10y) real yields are rising fast (%) y German bund (lhs) 10y US Tnote (rhs) US 0.00 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct EZ Chart 3: Fed s ACM term premium is rising (%) Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Chart 4: MOVE index reflects heightened interest rate volatility ACMTP May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Source: US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 4
5 New US economic policy to see higher inflation and less central bank stimulus Chart 1: Fed s ACM risk neutral rate to rise on stronger inflation and growth (%) Chart 2: 10y breakevens to climb further (%) 2.3 ACMRNY US 10y B/E May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct EZ 10y B/E 0.5 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov-16 Chart 3: Even after recent drop in oil price, large base effect impact expected on headline CPI CPI yoy (lhs in %) Oil price yoy (rhs in %) Chart 4: Economic activity (measured by PMIs) is improving everywhere without fiscal stimulus US World EZ Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan CHINA 45 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Source: US Federal Reserve,Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 5
6 The USD bull trend to continue Chart 1: The USD is expensive, but could strengthen further Chart 2: The FX market is only holding light USD positions? BNPP FEER (Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) is the value of a currency if all economies were operating at full capacity with sustainable current account balances. Chart 3: STEER highlights scope for USDJPY to rise Chart 4: US net portfolio and FDI flows should support the USD US residents foreign portfolio holdings likely to be repatriated +ve BoP Current account? Widening: more imports from infrastructure spending & consumption growth Narrowing: Protectionist policies (i.e. tariffs) Net FDI to improve as investment abroad slows BNPP STEER is a regression based modelled which calculated the fair-value based on an exchange rates relationships with rates, equities, commodities and credit. Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 6
7 Emerging markets remain particularly exposed Chart 1: FX is the first indicator of weakness in EM Chart 2: S&P rally is not helping EM as correlation is breaking down 130 USD vs an EM basket made of 16 local currencies EM FX weak (dollar up) S&P Index (rebased at 100 in 2014) EM FX strong (dollar down) 80 MSCI EMs in $ (rebased at 100 in 2014) 100 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Nov Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15 May-16 Chart 3: EM stocks are expensive relative to EM sovereign yields Chart 4: Higher real yields in USD will push EM spreads wider Risk premium in % US 10y real yld (lhs) EM OAS spread (rhs) EM Stocks cheap vs EM sov yield EM Stocks expensive vs EM sov yield 2.00 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 7
8 Dispersion on the rise: More differentiation between assets and equity sectors Chart 1: 1y correlation of weekly returns between S&P sectors 95% Chart 2: 1y correlation of weekly returns between commodity index and certain sub components 50% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 45% 40% 35% 30% 65% Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 Jan-15 25% Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Chart 3: Carry trades are unwound and sector dispersion increases (rebased) 130 Chart 4: High dispersion in commodity prices Utilities Commodity prices (rebased at mths ago) iron Ore 110 Staples 120 Copper Discretionary Fin 80 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug Oil Gold 80 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 8
9 Trump card driving a cyclical rotation within US equities Financials (+ve long term): Steepening yield curve, higher rates, and higher growth (better asset quality) should help banks. Expectations of a smaller regulatory burden should boost profitability, although reduced regulation will probably pull banks away from the utility model, making them riskier entities. Industrials(+velongterm):Higher government spending on areas including Infrastructure and Security, as per campaign promises, is likely to benefit this sector in the long term. Materials: Higher infrastructure spending is likely to boost demand for building materials. Domestic Consumer discretionary (+ve long term): Stronger domestic growth will boost domestically-focused stocks; we expect wages to pick up sharply in the US. Health Care (+ve short term): Large cash balances could be repatriated at a one-time 10% tax assessment, which would boost for the sector. The repeal of Obamacare could be positive for credit insurers and pharma manufacturers, but negative for hospitals due to uncertainty regarding insurance coverage, eligibility and a possible increase in bad debt if the number of uninsured were to rise significantly. Scrutiny of drug prices, while not disappearing altogether, is less likely to be the focus of the new administration. The US Department of Justice generic probe could be scaled back. Technology (Neutral): Positive for large-cap tech due to potential corporate tax reform and one-time off-shore cash repatriation at a low tax rate. From an operating perspective, uncertainty regarding a more restrictive trade policy and heightened geopolitical risk is a negative since (1) the vast majority of tech manufacturing takes place in Asia and (2) over 50% of revenues are generated internationally. Energy (Neutral): The new government will probably reduce environmental regulation, lower taxes, and could also open up more federal land + offshore areas for drilling activity, which is a positive. Trump remains focused on infrastructure, and is less environmentally-concerned than the current administration, which could be more accommodating for pipeline projects. Lower regulation could spur greater re-investment in US shale oil & gas, which is positive for this sector but negative for global crude oil prices. The positives from deregulation could be offset by the negatives from excess supply. Utilities Real estate & Telecom (-ve long term): We expect bond-like equities to suffer as investors reallocate from high yielding equities to growth-linked equities. Utilities, real estate and telecoms are the top three US sectors in terms of dividend yield with an average of 4.4%, which is twice the S&P dividend yield. These sectors have outperformed significantly in the bond bull market and we expect these to be the worst performing sectors in the bond sell-off. If the US 10y yield climbs to 3%, in line with our rates strategy view, these sectors could see the biggest outflows. Consumer Staples (-ve long term): These stocks also tick the box of bond-like equities with the additional downside of low margins and high labour intensity, especially for food retailers. A rise in wages is likely to hurt the sector s margins. International Consumer discretionary (-ve long term): The strong USD is likely to hurt the sector s margins. Additionally, a rise in bond yields is likely to make share buybacks look less attractive from a capital arbitrage standpoint. US consumer discretionary and technology stocks are the biggest drivers of buybacks in the US. 9
10 Real yields are rising: a reflation story for the US, a credit story for Europe Chart 1: Extent of global bond sell-off Chart 2: Eurozone spreads are widening 10y Bonds GBP USD EUR JPY AUD Last vs 1 month vs 3 month y swap GBP USD EUR JPY AUD Last vs 1 month vs 3 month y inflation GBP USD EUR JPY AUD Last vs 1 month vs 3 month y real yield GBP USD EUR JPY AUD Last vs 1 month vs 3 month Chart 3: Low yields have suppressed debt sustainability concerns Chart 4: but financials CDS spreads have not yet been impacted Fin CDS FR, IT and Sp 10y spread vs Germany Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 10
11 BNP Paribas MarFA : US 10y term premium is key driver of asset performance Chart 1: US 10y term premium identified as the 1st Market Factor Chart 2: Impact of a 10bp rise of US term premium on selected assets MarFa identifies market drivers as: 1. Rising US 10y term premium 2. Falling implied equity vol 3. Rising implied FX vol 11 Aug 16 Sep 16 Oct 16 1st Market Factor (lhs) ACM 10yr term premium Chart 3: Global equities appear overvalued on a 1-2 week view UK 10yr yield USDTRY US 10yr yield Australia 10yr yield Germany 10yr yield USDCAD USDJPY USDKRW MSCI Emerging Markets SP500 EM credit total returns MSCI India MSCI World Plantinum GBPUSD MSCI Switzerland Gold EURUSD US IG total returns MSCI South Africa MSCI New Zealand Standard deviation move in asset in response to 10bp rise in term premium Impact of a rising term premium: - Push global yields higher and steepen curves - Positive for the USD, especially vs EUR, JPY, CAD, KRW & TRY - Negative for global equity markets - Negative for major credit indices - Negative for gold and platinum BNPP MarFA monitors the performance and correlations of 75 assets to identify the main factors driving assets and fair-values based on these factors. See Introducing MarFA : BNP Paribas Market Factor Analysis for further details. Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 11
12 BNP Paribas MarFA : Most assets moving in line with the Market Factors Chart 1: US 10y TSY rising in line with market factors (%) Chart 2: US IG credit moving in line with higher term premium MarFa identifies as the important market drivers: 1. Rising US 10y term premium 2. Falling implied equity vol 3. Rising implied FX vol Chart 3: Gold reacting to rising US term premium Chart 4: Rising US term premium negative for EM equities Source: Bloomberg, BNP Paribas 12
13 TRADE OF THE WEEK: US SMALL CAPS VS LARGE CAPS Wall of worry lifted for small caps? US small/large cap price ratio underperformance After lagging since 2013, US small caps (Russell 2000 Index - RTY) may face more favourable fundamental trends than their larger peers. The NFIB s monthly survey cites health insurance, regulation and federal taxes as the top three concerns for US small businesses all of which have been highlighted by President-elect Trump. Sector & geographic mix bias both RTY positive The RTY has an overweight concentration in financials a sector which has been historically correlated with higher inflation expectations. Additionally, RTY sales are biased toward a domestic revenue mix. On balance, US financials outperformed broader equities post-election. Regarding foreign/domestic revenue exposure, companies with a higher concentration of domestic sales outperformed election+1. Within the S&P 100 index (OEX), the 15 companies with highest attributable foreign revenue exposure underperformed the top 15 domestically exposed companies by 1% as the dollar rallied. This impact was also seen in Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) / S&P 500 (SPX) ratio, which underperformed by 0.7%. RTY and SPX sector weightings Source: BNP Paribas Trade Idea: Investors anticipating the emergence of positive fundamental trends for RTY relative to SPX may consider the following: RTY/SPX Jun17 ATM outperformance call - Indicative offer: 3.25% RTY/NDX Jun17 ATM outperformance call - Indicative offer: 3.15% Risks: The first underlying is the one that must outperform above the strike level to have a call at maturity. The risk of buying an outperformance call is limited to the premium paid. The option will expire worthless if the performance of the outperformance above the strike is below 0%. 13
14 DIAL IN NUMBERS LIVE EVERY WEDNESDAY New York London Singapore Hong Kong Tokyo 08:00 13:00 20:00 20:00 21:00 PASSWORD The BNP Paribas Markets Call Country Number Argentina Toll Free Austria Local +43 (0) Austria Toll Free Bahrain Toll Free Belgium Toll Free Stavelot Brazil Toll Free Bulgaria Toll Free Canada Toll Free Chile Toll Free China Toll Free Croatia Toll Free Cyprus Toll Free Czech Republic Toll Free Delhi +91 (0) Denmark Toll Free Finland Toll Free France Toll Free Germany Toll Free Greece Toll Free Hong Kong Local Country Number Hungary Toll Free Iceland Toll Free Ireland Toll Free Israel Toll Free Italy Toll Free Japan Toll Free Lima +51 (0) Lithuania Toll Free Luxembourg Toll Free Malaysia Toll Free Mexico Toll Free Mumbai +91 (0) Netherlands Toll Free New Zealand Toll Free Norway Toll Free Panama Toll Free Paraguay Toll Free Poland Toll Free Portugal Toll Free Romania Toll Free (RomTelecom only) Country Number Russia Toll Free Singapore Toll Free Slovakia Toll Free Slovenia Toll Free South Africa Toll Free South Korea Toll Free Spain Toll Free Standard International Access +44 (0) Sweden Toll Free Switzerland Toll Free Taiwan Toll Free Thailand Toll Free Turkey Toll Free UAE Toll Free UK Toll Free Ukraine Toll Free Uruguay Toll Free USA Toll Free
15 REPLAY NUMBERS PIN # The replay is available for 5 days following the call Country Number (0) Argentina Toll Free Australia Local Canberra +61 (0) Australia Local Sydney +61 (0) Australia Local Melbourne +61 (0) Australia Local Perth +61 (0) Australia Toll Free Austria Local Vienna (Wien) +43 (0) Austria Toll Free Bahrain Toll Free Belgium Local Brussel/Bruxelles "Brussels" +32 (0) Belgium Toll Free Stavelot Brazil Local Sao Paulo Bulgaria Toll Free Canada Toll Free Chile Toll Free China Toll Free Cyprus Toll Free Czech Republic Local Prague Czech Republic Toll Free Denmark Toll Free Finland Toll Free France Local Paris +33 (0) France Toll Free Germany Local Berlin +49 (0) Germany Local Frankfurt +49 (0) Germany Toll Free Country Number Greece Toll Free Hong Kong Toll Free Hungary Local Budapest +36 (06) Hungary Toll Free Iceland Toll Free India Local Mumbai +91 (0) Indonesia Toll Free Ireland Local Dublin Ireland Toll Free Israel Toll Free Italy Local Milan Italy Toll Free Japan Toll Free Korea, South Toll Free Luxembourg Toll Free Mexico Toll Free Netherlands Local Netherlands Toll Free New Zealand Local Auckland +64 (0) New Zealand Toll Free Nicaragua Toll Free Norway Toll Free Peru Local +51 (0) Poland Local Warsaw Poland Toll Free Portugal Toll Free Russia - Moscow Local +7 (8) Country Number Russia Toll Free Singapore Toll Free Slovakia Local Bratislava +421 (0) Slovenia Toll Free South Africa Toll Free Spain Local Madrid Spain Toll Free Standard International Access +44 (0) Standard International Access +44 (0) Standard International Access +44 (0) Standard International Access +44 (0) Sweden Local +46 (0) Sweden Local Stockholm +46 (0) Sweden Toll Free Switzerland Local Geneva +41 (0) Switzerland Toll Free Taiwan Toll Free Thailand Toll Free Turkey Toll Free UK Local +44 (0) UK Toll Free USA Toll Free USA Toll Free USA Toll Free Venezuela Toll Free
16 Disclaimers This document has been written by our strategy teams. It does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report. This document is a non-independent research for the purpose of FCA rules. By way of comparison with MiFID, for the purposes of MiFID non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication. This document is not investment research for the purposes of MiFID. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of investment research, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. STEER is a trade mark of BNP Paribas. 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Prices, yields and other similar information included in this document are included for information purposes. Numerous factors will affect market pricing and there is no certainty that transactions could be executed at any specified price. BNP Paribas may have a financial interest in any issuer or person mentioned in this document, including a long or short position in their securities and/or options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon, or vice versa. BNP Paribas, including its officers and employees may serve or have served as an officer, director or in an advisory capacity for any person mentioned in this document. BNP Paribas may, from time to time, solicit, perform or have performed investment banking, underwriting or other services (including acting as adviser, manager, underwriter or lender) within the last 12 months for any person referred to in this document. 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BNP Paribas Hong Kong Branch is also a Registered Institution regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of Regulated Activity Types 1, 4 and 6 under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Singapore: BNP Paribas Singapore Branch is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Banking Act, the Securities and Futures Act and the Financial Advisers Act. This report may not be circulated or distributed, whether directly or indirectly, to any person in Singapore other than (i) to an institutional investor pursuant to Section 274 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore ("SFA"), (ii) to an accredited investor or other relevant person, or any person under Section 275(1A) of the SFA, pursuant to and in accordance with the conditions specified in Section 275 of the SFA or (iii) otherwise pursuant to, and in accordance with the conditions of, any other applicable provisions of the SFA. South Korea: Branch: BNP Paribas Seoul Branch is regulated by the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service for the conduct of its financial investment business in the Republic of Korea. This report does not constitute an offer to sell to or the solicitation of an offer to buy from any person any financial products where it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in South Korea. Securities: BNP Paribas Securities Korea is registered as a Licensed Financial Investment Business Entity under the FINANCIAL INVESTMENT SERVICES AND CAPITAL MARKETS ACT and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service and Financial Services Commission. This report does not constitute an offer to sell to or the solicitation of an offer to buy from any person any financial products where it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in South Korea. Taiwan: BNP Paribas Taipei Branch is registered as a licensed bank under the Banking Act and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Commission, R.O.C. This report is directed only at Taiwanese counterparties who are licensed or who have the capacities to purchase or transact in such products. This report does not constitute an offer to sell to or the solicitation of an offer to buy from any person any financial products where it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in Taiwan. Australia: This material, and any information in related marketing presentations (the Material), is being distributed in Australia by BNP Paribas ABN , a branch of BNP Paribas R.C.S., a licensed bank whose head office is in Paris, France. BNP Paribas is licensed in Australia as a Foreign Approved Deposit-taking Institution by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) and delivers financial services to Wholesale clients under its Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) No which is regulated by the Australian Securities & Investments Commission (ASIC).The Material is directed to Wholesale clients only and is not intended for Retail clients (as both terms are defined by the Corporations Act 2001, sections 761G and 761GA). The Material is subject to change without notice and BNP Paribas is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy that may appear at a later date. Some or all of the information contained in this document may already have been published on BNP Paribas (2016). All rights reserved. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES by producers and disseminators of investment recommendations for the purposes of the Market Abuse Regulation: Although the disclosures provided herein have been prepared on the basis of information we believe to be accurate, we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reasonableness of any such disclosures. The disclosures provided herein have been prepared in good faith and are based on internal calculations, which may include, without limitation, rounding and approximations. BNP Paribas and/or its affiliates may be [are] a market maker or liquidity provider in financial instruments of the issuer mentioned in the recommendation. BNP Paribas and/or its affiliates may provide such services as described in Sections A and B of Annex I of MiFID II (Directive 2014/65/EU), to the Issuer to which this investment recommendation relates. However, BNP Paribas is unable to disclose specific relationships/agreements due to client confidentiality obligations. Section A and B services include A. Investment services and activities: (1) Reception and transmission of orders in relation to one or more financial instruments; (2) Execution of orders on behalf of clients; (3) Dealing on own account; (4) Portfolio management; (5) Investment advice; (6) Underwriting of financial instruments and/or placing of financial instruments on a firm commitment basis; (7) Placing of financial instruments without a firm commitment basis; (8) Operation of an MTF; and (9) Operation of an OTF. B. Ancillary services: (1) Safekeeping and administration of financial instruments for the account of clients, including custodianship and related services such as cash/collateral management and excluding maintaining securities accounts at the top tier level; (2) Granting credits or loans to an investor to allow him to carry out a transaction in one or more financial instruments, where the firm granting the credit or loan is involved in the transaction; (3) Advice to 18
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BNP Paribas and/or its affiliates as a matter of policy do not permit issuers to review or see unpublished recommendations. BNP Paribas and/or its affiliates acknowledge the importance of conflicts of interest prevention and have established robust policies and procedures and maintain effective organisational structure to prevent and avoid conflicts of interest that could impair the objectivity of this recommendation including, but not limited to, information barriers, personal account dealing restrictions and management of inside information. BNP Paribas and/or its affiliates understand the importance of protecting confidential information and maintain a need to know approach when dealing with any confidential information. Information barriers are a key arrangement we have in place in this regard. Such arrangements, along with embedded policies and procedures, provide that information held in the course of carrying on one part of its business to be withheld from and not to be used in the course of carrying on another part of its business. It is a way of managing conflicts of interest whereby the business of the bank is separated by physical and non-physical information barriers. The Control Room manages this information flow between different areas of the bank where confidential information including inside information and proprietary information is safeguarded. There is also a conflict clearance process before getting involved in a deal or transaction. In addition, there is a mitigation measure to manage conflicts of interest for each transaction with controls put in place to restrict the information flow, involvement of personnel and handling of client relations between each transaction in such a way that the different interests are appropriately protected. 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