ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2014

Transcription

1 AC2015-Doc09 ESA ANNUAL REPORT 2014 Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission Euratom Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Market Observatory Sector 1

2 2014 ESA annual survey conducted within EU nuclear energy utilities and their procurement organisations and based on the following data sets: - deliveries of EUP - fuel loaded into reactors - future requirements for natural uranium and separative work - natural uranium deliveries - natural uranium deliveries contracted for future years - separative work units deliveries contracted for future years - level of inventories EU nuclear utilities : CEZ EDF & EDF ENBW ENUSA EoNKK EPZ FORTUM IGNALINAKOZLO DUY KRSKO Magnox Ltd OKG PAKS RWE SLOVELEKT SNN- Nuclearelectrica SYNATOM TVO VATTENFALL 2

3 U Demand 3

4 Demand of U is driven by - 18 nuclear utilities - 14 EU Members States EU-based nuclear reactors - According to EUROSTAT EU-28 gross electricity generation amounted to TWh (2013) and nuclear gross electricity generation accounted for 26.9 % of total EU-28 production. 4

5 Demand of U URANIUM LOADED INTO EU REACTORS Fuel Loaded (tleu) Enrichment assay (%) % change % Feed NatU (tu) % RepU (tu) % tswu % Tails assays (%)

6 Demand of U MOX FUEL LOADED INTO THE EU REACTORS % change MOX Fuel Loaded (kg PU) % Savings in NatU (tonnes) % Savings in SWU (tonnes) % 6

7 Demand of U Natural uranium included in fuel loaded (or equivalent of NatU) by source in 2014 Source Quantities (tu) Share (%) Uranium originated outside EU Uranium originated in EU (approximate annual production) Reprocessed uranium Savings from MOX Total annual requirements

8 Demand of U U contained in fuel loaded and NatU delivered to EU-28 Utilities in tonnes U,

9 Demand of U URANIUM DELIVERED TO THE EU UTILITIES % change Uranium delivered (tu) % Nr of deliveries Long-term contracts (%) Spot contracts (%)

10 tonnes Nat U or tonnes SWU Demand of U EU Future NatU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, Gross 20-year AV: Net 20-year AV: NatU gross requirements NatU net requirements

11 tonnes Nat U or tonnes SWU Demand of U EU Future SWU reactor requirements in tonnes of U, SWU gross requirements Gross 20-year AV: Net 20-year AV: SWU net requirements 11

12 Demand of U Future Demand of U EU and worldwide up to 2030 EU U demand is approximately stable around tu /year up from 2015 to 2024 and tu/year from 2025 to 2034 whereas global demand is increasing rapidly EU Share of Global U Demand falls from 26% in 2014 to 15% in EU Demand Global Demand* EU Share% 26% 27% 20% 15% Sources: ESA Annual Report 2014 and (*) WNA Market Report 2013, Demand reference scenario 12

13 U Supply 13

14 Supply of U Uranium Suppliers to EU Utilities in 2014 AREVA NC and AREVA NP (formerly Cogéma) AREVA Mines BHP Billiton (formerly WMC) Cameco Inc. Corporation USA CNU Cominak DIAMO US Internexco GmbH Itochuint Aron KazAtomProm Macquarie Bank Limited, London Branch NUKEM GmbH Rio Tinto Marketing Pte Ltd Tenex (JSC Techsnabexport) Traxys North America LLC TVEL UEM Uranium One Urenco Ltd 21 suppliers 14

15 Supply of U Natural uranium deliveries to the EU by origin in

16 Supply of U Natural uranium deliveries by region, Kazakhstan Russia Niger Australia Canada United States EU Uzbekistan Namibia Other Malawi Ukraine South Africa HEU feed Re-enriched tails 16

17 U Prices 17

18 U Prices ESA U Price Indices ESA Spot U 3 O 8 price: weighted average of U 3 O 8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under spot contracts in 2014 ESA Long-term U 3 O 8 price: weighted average of U 3 O 8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered under longterm contracts with deliveries in 2014 ESA MAC-3 U 3 O 8 price: weighted average of U 3 O 8 prices paid by the EU utilities for U delivered only under newly signed long-term contracts i.e. signed/amended within the last three years ( ) with deliveries in

19 U Prices ESA Prices Calculation Methodology Deliveries database o made under Nat U or EUP purchasing contracts by EU utilities during the reference year i.e Currency Conversion o converted into EUR o ECB annual average exchange rates o ECB EUR/USD (2014) = 1.33 Unit Conversion o kg U in the chemical form U 3 0 8, using conventional conversion factors ESA average conversion price o If included, deducted to obtain the net natural uranium price as U o ESA Conversion Price (2014) = 9.21/kgU o ESA Conversion Price is based on the NatU long term contracts 19

20 U Prices ESA Spot U 3 O 8 prices /2013 EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU 74,65 78,24-5% $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 38,15 39,97-5% Based on prices in spot contracts 3.5% of total deliveries 10 deliveries Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae Deliveries accounted for 513 tonnes of uranium Widely distributed: /kgu or $/lbu3o8 20

21 U Prices ESA Long-term U 3 O 8 price /2012 EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU 78,31 85,19-8% $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 40,02 43,52-8% Based on prices in long term contracts Contracts signed 8 years earlier on average 96.5% of total deliveries 115 deliveries Based on fixed prices or index-based formulae Deliveries accounted for tonnes of uranium Data widely scattered 75% of prices falling into range: / kgu or $/lb U3O8

22 U Prices ESA MAC-3 Multiannual U 3 O 8 price MAC 3 index went up over /2013 EURO/kgU EURO/kgU EURO/kgU 93,68 84,66 11% $/ lb U3O8 $/ lb U3O9 $/ lb U3O9 47,87 43,25 11% 18% of total deliveries 29 deliveries Deliveries accounted for tonnes of uranium Based on deliveries made only under newly signed or newly amended multiannual contracts over the last 3 years 22

23 U Prices ESA average price indices Historical data,

24 Enrichment services 24

25 Enrichment services Enrichments services deliveries /2013 tswu % EUP tu % Uranium feed tu % AV enrichment assay (%) 4,09 4,05 AV tails assay (%) 0,24 0,24 25

26 Enrichment services Supplies to EU Utilities Enricher Quantities in Share in Quantities in 2014 (tswu) 2014 (%) 2013 (tswu) Share in 2013 (%) Change in quantities over 2013 (%) AREVA + URENCO (EU) % % 22% TENEX/TVEL (Russia) USEC (USA) Others Total 26% (includes 7% of grandfathered) % (includes 8,5% of grandfathered) -25% 200 2% 354 3% -44% 624 5% 119 1% 423% % % 7% 26

27 Enrichment services Percentage share of supply of enrichment services to EU utilities by supplier, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Others USEC TVEL/TENEX EU 30% 20% 10% 0%

28 Security of supply 28

29 SECURITY OF SUPPLY Inventories Diversification of supply Forward thinking 29

30 SECURITY OF SUPPLY EU Uranium inventories, Decrease of 3% Cover 3 years of the EU gross reactor requirements 30

31 SECURITY OF SUPPLY Nuclear power share of total electricity production in the EU in 2014 Netherlands Germany United Kingdom Romania Spain Bulgaria Finland Czech Republic Slovenia Sweden Belgium Hungary Slovakia France 4% 16% 17% 18% 20% 32% 35% 36% 37% 41% 48% 54% 57% Russian fuel deliveries 77% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 31

32 SECURITY OF SUPPLY Long-term contractual coverage for U & SWU,

33 Thank you for your attention Mr Dariusz KOZAK European Commission EURATOM Supply Agency Nuclear Fuel Cycle Observatory Sector