A few remarks on the case study of Poland

Transcription

1 A few remarks on the case study of Jan Krzysztof Bielecki EY Chairman of the Partners Board 3 March 21

2 Political and economic transition can go hand in hand Contrary to intuition, more political turnover (shorter tenures), less power of political executives and more fragmented political system (multi party coalitions) supported the reform progress for the transition countries in the 199s (EBRD, Transition Report 1998). In countries with successful reform effort (e.g. ), with some delay, economy prospered consolidating new institutions and democracy (EBRD, Transition Report 214). While some economies thrive without much democracy (e.g. China), the new research suggests a casual link between democracy and GDP growth (Acemoglu et al., 214). EBRD transition indictaor 1998 Average tenure of government and EBRD transition indicator* (1 - little progress) in transition countries 4, Czech Republic 3, FYR Lithuania SloveniaMacedonia Croatia 3, Kyrgyzstan Bulgaria Romania Kazakhstan Georgia Moldova Armenia Russia 2, Albania Ukraine Azerbaijan Uzbekistan 2, 1, 1, Belarus Source: EBRD, Transition Report 1998 * Scores reflect the assessments of EBRD country economists. Tajikistan Turkmenistan average tenure of government (months) Real GDP per capita evolution in transition countries (1989 = 1) Romania Lithuania Bulgaria Russia Ukraine 3 Source: EBRD, Transition Report 1998 (data for ), IMF (data for ) Page 2

3 Polish economic growth has been accompanied by the declining income inequality In income inequality has been declining since 2. In 213 the distribution of incomes was more equal in than in the most EU countries Gini coefficient* of equivalised** disposable income before social transfers (pensions excluded from social transfers) in for selected EU countries More income inequality Lithuania EU-28 (average) 27 Slovenia 2 Czech Republic Source: Eurostat * - perfect equality (everyone has the same income) 1 perfect inequality (only one person has all the income) ** Equivalised income is income that takes account of the differences in a household's size and composition Gini coefficient* of equivalised** disposable income before social transfers (pensions excluded from social transfers) in 213 for selected EU countries More income inequality 33,9 3,8 46,3 Slovenia Netherlands Sweden Finland Belgium EU-28 (average) France Romania Croatia Bulgaria Portugal Spain Denmark United Kingdom Lithuania Ireland Source: Eurostat Page 3

4 Polish producers have been benefiting from improved labor cost competitiveness Polish labor costs have been growing relatively slow in relation to labor productivity. Effective nominal exchange rate in has been relatively stable in the long run. As labor costs have not been domestically overinflated or affected by exchange rate mechanism, Polish producers have been gaining international cost competitiveness (measured by real effective exchange rate) Nominal unit labor costs* in and selected OECD countries (2 = 1) Beginning of the global financial crisis OECD (average) United States ULC-deflated real effective exchange rate in and selected OECD countries (2 = 1) Appreciation OECD (average) United States 9 6 Source: European Commission (AMECO database) *Nominal unit labor costs = (compensation of employees/number of employees)/(gdp at constant prices/total employment) Page 4

5 Entrepreneurship has been playing an important role in (especially during the economic transition) Small businesses were crucial for the Polish economy during the economic transition. The role of self-employed and small enterprises in is still more important than in most OECD countries. Relatively many people in that are not currently involved in any entrepreneurial activity intend to start a business within three years. % total employment % ,6 19, ,4 14,9 1, , 9,8 1, ,3 1 Share of self-employed* in total employment for selected countries in 214,9 Percentage of individuals aged who intend to start a business within three years in and selected countries in 214 9,8 11,4 11, 12,1 13,9 1,1 1,6 19,7 31,7 Source: European Commission (AMECO database) * data includes self-employed in agriculture and self-employed that are probably not entrepreneurs (e.g. self-employed because of tax optimisation) Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, 214 Global Report Page

6 Infrastructure investment in was important during the crisis and remains a challenge in the long run After joining the EU has experienced a surge in public investment, especially in road infrastructure. It helped to boost demand in during the global financial crisis. The quality of Polish infrastructure has significantly improved, supporting the long term growth fundamentals. However, there is still a substantial infrastructure gap between and other countries from the region and OECD. km Length of motorways, length of expressways and public investment in Expressways and motorways length CAGR: +11,% joins the EU % of GDP Assessment of quality of overall infrastructure (e.g. transport, telephony, energy) for and selected countries (1 extremely underdeveloped, 7 extensive and efficient) Catch-up effect motorways (left axis) expressways (left axis) public investment (right axis) Source: Central Statistical Office of * Estimate based on GDDKiA 214 annual report 2-26** *** Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 26-27**/ *** (Executive Opinion Survey) Page 6

7 International tax issues and development of EU Energy Union should be high on the future policy agenda Tax competition, tax avoidance and tax evasion constitute a major policy challenge for the developed countries and for the EU common market. Regulatory changes and investment are essential for the development of EU Energy Union that may boost European cost competitiveness and increase diversification of energy suppliers. Changes between 2 and 214 in statutory combined (central and local) CIT rates (max rate pp. if progressive) in selected OECD countries % , , 1-16 Ireland Netherlands Austria United Kingdom Finland Luxembourg Slovenia Denmark OECD (average) Slovak Republic Belgium Sweden Spain Australia Switzerland France Norway United States Forecast of primary energy import dependence* for EU-28 countries Source: OECD Source: European Commission, EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emissions Trends To 2 Reference Scenario 213, 213 * (Import-Export)/(Gross Inland Consumption + Consumption of International Bunkers) Page 7