Major projects CBA for transport sector Brussels, 30 September 2015

Transcription

1 Regional Major projects CBA for transport sector Brussels, 30 September 2015 Major projects Witold Willak Head of Sector, Major Projects, Unit G1 for Smart and Sustainable growth, DG Regional and Urban, European Commission REGIO-CBA-FORUM@ec.europa.eu

2 Major projects context for the Commission's appraisal Regional

3 Objectives of EU transport policy in nut-shell A transport system that meets the demand of citizens and businesses for personal mobility and freight transport A transport system that can foster a (balanced) economic development of the Union and its regions; European integration and territorial cohesion; and the functioning of the single market (against the background of enlargement and globalisation) A transport system that is more efficient (closing bottlenecks and gaps; inter-modality; ITS/ICT) and more sustainable (less dependent on fossil fuels; less adverse impacts on environment, climate, human health) 3

4 Delivering the EU transport policy through Non-legislative action Transport White Paper (2011) "Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area - Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system" Communication (2013) "Together towards competitive and resource efficient urban mobility" Legislative action Common rules, e.g. on civil aviation security; interoperability of the rail system; type approval for road vehicles; (air quality) Targeted financial support Research and innovation: Horizon 2020 framework programme TEN-T policy: Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) Cohesion policy: European Structural and Investments Funds 4

5 TEN-T The core and the comprehensive network Defined in the TEN-T Guidelines (Regulation 1315/2013) Includes 9 main corridors Consists of roads, rail, inland waterways, ports, airports, freight terminals, logistic platforms, etc. "Technical specifications" e.g. ERTMS, track gauge, electrification 5

6 Targeted support: thematic concentration 11 Thematic objectives reflecting the three pillars of the Europe 2020 Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth Research and Innovation 1 Combating climate change 5 Employment and Mobility 8 Information and Communication technologies 2 Environment and resource efficiency 6 Social inclusion 9 Competitiveness of SMEs 3 Sustainable transport 7 Better education, training 10 Low-carbon economy 4 Better public administration 11 6

7 Investment priorities for transport Thematic Objective 7: "Sustainable transport": Promoting sustainable transport and removing bottlenecks in key network infrastructures by Supporting a multimodal Single European Transport Area by investing in TEN-T; Enhancing regional mobility by connecting secondary and tertiary nodes to TEN-T; Environment-friendly and low-carbon transport systems, in order to promote sustainable regional and local mobility; Interoperable railway systems; Energy-efficiency and security of supply (smart energy distribution; energy from renewable sources). Thematic Objective 4: "low-carbon economy": Supporting a shift towards a low-carbon economy in all sectors by Promoting low-carbon strategies for all types of territories, including the promotion of sustainable urban mobility 7

8 Regional New Cohesion for transport In total 70 bn of ERDF/CF for is expected to deliver the following key achievements: Railway sector: km, of which km TEN-T railway lines will be reconstructed or upgraded. Road sector: km of roads in total: km of new roads will be built, of which km will be TEN- T, while km of road will be reconstructed, of which 798 km will be TEN-T km of TEN-T road to be built or upgraded represents 5 % of the TEN-T network. Public transport: 743 km of tram or metro lines will be built or improved. Inland waterways: 957 km of new or improved inland waterways will receive investments. 8

9 New Cohesion and major projects New approach Result orientation; Major projects need to deliver significant contribution to results that the priorities of EU programmes aim to achieve; Specifically for transport: Transport major projects engage significant EU resources, therefore need to be judged on results in OP perspective (long-term effects visà-vis result orientation) Ex-ante conditionalities; Projects should follow Strategy; not that Strategy follows projects; Comprehensive transport master plans for TO7; no requirement for public transport under TO4, but encouragement for SUMPs; other technical Ex-AC (EIA, pipeline, SEA, PP, SA etc.) Concentration; Scope of major projects need to be concentrated on the best "value for money"; Careful consideration of unit costs and option analysis with appropriate palette of investment options having regard to the CBA results; Integrated programming; Effects of major projects may be dependent on the links with other projects and legislative framework; Regional Inter-modal analysis of investment needs vis-avis traffic forecasts and societal changes; considerations of tolling/polluter Pays Principle in transport; appropriate level of analysis of impact of projects, supra-national coordination; 9

10 Regional Secondary legislation related to major projects for THE METHODOLOGY TO UNDERTAKE IQR / THE REVENUE-GENERATING PROJECTS - the Commission Delegated Act no 480/2014 (OJ 2014 L ); "NOTIFICATION FORM" AND IQR REPORT TEMPLATE - the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 1011/2014 of 22 September 2014 (OJ L 286, , p. 1); COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS (CBA) and "APPLICATION FORM" the Commission Implementing Regulation 207/2015 (OJ L38 of 20 January 2015); Non-Legislative guidance: CBA GUIDE published on 19 December formation/publications/guides/2014/guide-to-costbenefit-analysis-of-investment-projects-for-cohesionpolicy

11 Regional Key changes in major projects : Compulsory list of major projects in the operational programmes; Stronger role of independent experts: JASPERS Fewer major projects: the thresholds are higher and based on total eligible cost after Article 61; Stronger focus on realisation of major projects: all decisions are conditional; Simplified rules for CBA and grant calculations: "flat rates", updated CBA aiming at simplification while keeping essentials; Certification of expenditure possible only when the project is submitted to the Commission; No N+3 deductions due to major projects No financing of completed projects 11

12 Thematic objective Investment priority Specific objective(s) (results) Major projects in the Operational Programme : they have to be in line with the intervention logic Actions (outputs) Key principles for selecting operations Major projects Regional 12

13 List of major projects in the OPs Major Projects planned per Member State Regional BG CZ DE EE ES FR GR HR HU IE IT LT LV MT PL PT RO SI SK UK

14 Expected submission dates in the OPs Expected submission to the COM Projects notified per year Regional 14

15 Projects identified on the ground based on JASPERS estimates Air, Rail, Maritime Energy & Solid Waste Regional Smart R&D&I Waste /Waste -water Grand Total ROADS Country BG CZ DE 1 1 ES FR GR HR HU IE 1 1 IT LT LV 3 3 MT 1 1 PL PT RO SI SK Grand Total

16 Regional Project decision-making procedure in the The Member State can choose one of three procedure for decision-making of a major project: Article procedure Notification (IQR report based procedure) Article procedure Full Application Form based procedure Article 103 procedure for phased projects only - Notification without IQR report - simplified procedure

17 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS Regional

18 Regional Why CBA is required for major projects The most objective and rigorous tool to assess the quality of projects: not only for the COM but also for the MA vis-à-vis beneficiaries Gives indication on whether the project needs EU financing and whether it is financially sustainable in short and long-term Allows for measuring quantifiable impact of the project on its target area by monetizing mainly direct effects; It should become real management tool in appraising the projects and ultimately comparing one to another;

19 Methodology for Cost Benefit Analysis in the period First time the main principles of the CBA methodology are enshrined in Commission Implementing Regulation no 2015/207 and in Delegated Regulation no 480/2014 (calculation of net revenues); Strict application of basic rules in order to assure more rigour and homogeneity in application of the CBA; Possibility of the MS to adjust basic parameters via national CBA guidance justified and agreed with the Commission; Regional

20 IMPLEMENTING REGULATION 2015/207 1 GENERAL PRINCIPLES Objectives of CBA (assess whether the project is worth co-financing and needs cofinancing) Methodological principles (e.g. incremental method) Elements required in CBA 2 ELEMENTS OF CBA 1. Presentation of the socio-economic context; 2. Definition of objectives; 3. Identification of the project; 4. Results of feasibility studies with demand and option analysis; 5. Financial analysis; 6. Economic analysis; 7. Risk assessment. Regional 20

21 Regional CBA Guide main ideas Update of 2008 CBA Guide with active input from Jaspers; New political, legal, economic, scientific and technical context; New regulation, new requirements; Update, simplify and clarify; Less academic, more practical; 21

22 Regional Structure of the CBA guide - CBA in the framework of the EU funds - General principles for carrying out CBA - Sectoral chapters: Transport with case studies (road, rail and urban transport) Environment with case studies (WWTP, WtE) Energy with case study (gas pipeline) Broadband with case study Research & Innovation (no case study) - Annexes 22

23 NEW ELEMENTS IN PROJECT'S CONTEXT, OBJECTIVES, IDENTIFICATION OF SCOPE AND TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY & ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Timing of CBA should be carried out as soon as possible in the project preparation phase; Context and project objectives should be more linked to the needs in line with OP's perspective; Demand analysis critical issue for preparing CBA more attention to current infrastructure endowment and other planned /expected projects; Option analysis mainly multi-criteria analysis for selecting strategic options, and quantitative method for selecting solution at technological level (least cost solution and/or simplified CBA); Regional 23

24 Regional FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Should provide firm reply to the question: does the project need EU financing? Recommendation for use of constant prices Discounted cash flow methodology (4% FDR in real terms) Obligatory reference periods by sector (see: next slide) The financial analysis of major projects shall be carried out taking into account the rules set out in section III (Method for calculating the discounted net revenue of operations generating net revenue) of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No 480/2014 (Determination of costs, revenues and residual value, in compliance with polluter-pays principle, fullcost recovery, affordability), Note: Financial analysis is required for major project, irrelevantly of the method selected by the MS in application of Article 61 (operations generating net revenue after completion);

25 ANNEX I of Delegated Regulation (revenue generation) - Reference periods Sector Reference period (years) Railways 30 Water supply/sanitation 30 Roads Waste management Ports and airports 25 Urban transport Energy Research & innovation Broadband Business infrastructure Other sectors Regional

26 Regional Financial analysis new issues Requirements for financial profitability indicators in secondary legislation (FRR(C), FRR(K), FNPV(C), FNPV(K); Reduced FDR from 5% (in ) to 4 % (national approaches possible if justified) More emphasis on ensuring financial viability (sustainability) in the project implementation and operation; in case of preexisting infrastructure also in relation to beneficiary (no only project) More strict line on highly profitable projects; Calculation of FNPV (Kp) for private equity to avoid overcompensation;

27 Financial analysis main financial indicators Regional 27

28 Regional Economic analysis Key steps of economic analysis: Fiscal corrections From market to shadow prices (simplification: if conversion factors not available at national level and in absence of significant market distortion CF=1) Evaluation of non-market impacts Social discount rate of 5% for cohesion MS and 3% for others; different SDR if justified Calculation of the economic performance indicators (ENPV>0, ERR>SDR and B/C>1) The main economic benefits by sector to be considered Simplified economic analysis in special cases (e.g. projects driven by compliance) cost-effectiveness analysis with qualitative assessment of main economic benefits

29 Regional SOCIAL DISCOUNT RATE: THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION BENCHMARK According to Annex III to the Implementing Regulation on application form and CBA methodology, for the programming period the Commission recommends that for the social discount rate 5 % is used for major projects in Cohesion countries and 3 % for the other Member States. Member States may establish a benchmark for the SDR which is different from 5% or 3 %, on the condition that: i) justification is provided for this reference on the basis of an economic growth forecast and other parameters; ii) their consistent application is ensured across similar projects in the same country, region or sector. The Commission encourages MSs to provide their own benchmarks for the SDR in their guidance documents, possibly at the start of the operational programmes and then to apply it consistently in project appraisal at national level. 29

30 SIMPLIFIED ECONOMIC ANALYSIS In certain limited cases where the benefits of a major project are very difficult or impossible to quantify and monetise, but where costs can be predicted with reasonable confidence, notably for major projects driven by necessity to ensure compliance with EU legislation, a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) can be performed. In such cases the appraisal shall focus on verifying that the project is the most efficient solution for the society to supply a given, necessary service at the pre-defined conditions set out. In addition, qualitative description of main economic benefits should be provided. CEA is carried out by calculating the cost per unit of non monetised benefit and is required to quantify benefits but not to attach a monetary price or economic value to the benefits. Regional 30

31 Regional Main economic benefits by sector (examples from implementing Regulation) Sector / Subsector Airports, Seaports, Intermodal Roads, Railways, Public Transport Economic benefits (i) reduction in generalised costs (for movement of goods/people) time savings vehicle operating costs savings (ii) quality of service improvements (e.g. provision of airport contact gates) (iii) reduction of GHG emissions (iv)reduction of non-ghg emissions (v) reduction of noise emissions (i) reduction in generalised costs (for movement of goods / people): - time savings (most important) - vehicle operating costs savings (ii) accident savings (iii) reduction of GHG emissions (iv) reduction of non-ghg emissions (i.e. local air pollution impacts) (v) reduction of noise emissions (sometimes for urban projects)

32 Regional RISK ASSESSMENT Sensitivity analysis similar to Qualitative risk analysis including measures for risk mitigation and risk matrix Optional: probabilistic risk analysis (required only if residual risk exposure is still significant) The minimum risks to be taken into account (from Implementing Regulation) National approach to risk matrix to facilitate risk assessments of beneficiaries

33 Main risks for transport projects Regional 33

34 Transport Chapter of the CBA Guide Regional

35 Presentation of the context Regional 35

36 Regional Definition of objectives reduction of congestion within a network, link or node by resolving capacity constraints; improvement of the capacity and/or performance of a network, link or node by increasing travel speeds and by reducing operating costs and accidents; improvement of the reliability and safety of a network, link or node; minimisation of GHG emissions, pollution and limitation of the environmental impact (important examples are projects supporting the shift from individual, i.e. cars, to collective transport); adjustment to EU standards and completion of missing links or poorly linked networks: transport networks have often been created on a national and/or regional basis, which may no longer meet the transport requirements of the single market (this is mainly the case with railways); improvement of accessibility in peripheral areas or regions. 36

37 Regional Definition of project when the project consists of realising a given section, sub-portion or phase of a well identified transport investment, the CBA (and the supporting feasibility study) should be focused on the entire investment, regardless of the object of the EDRF/Cohesion Fund assistance; when the project contributes to implementing a larger investment strategy or plan, encompassing a set of interventions all aimed at achieving the same priority, each intervention should undergo a CBA. For example, a project may consist of the completion of a trans-national link under the TEN T. Here, the economic appraisal should not focus on the entire link, but only on the project s section where different options are available 37

38 Regional Definition of a project In general, it needs to be a self-sufficient unit of analysis the project can independently function without other sections/parts to be delivered, Corridor-based approach vs. single sections; Specific situation of public transport projects but all tasks should contribute to the same specific goal Phasing of projects vs. results to the OP 38

39 Factors influencing demand analysis demographic changes, including, amongst others, the number of people split into age structure, level of education and number of people of productive and non-productive age; socio-economic changes, including, amongst others, GDP level in analysed area, incomes, level of unemployment, economic structure of regions being served currently or in the future by the transport infrastructure; industrial and logistics structure and developments: location of concentrated industrial activities, natural resources, main transport hubs (ports and airports), logistics structure, and expected developments in supply chain organisation (clustering, unitisation, change in distribution patterns); elasticity with respect to quality, time and price: travel demand characteristics, structure and elasticity are particularly important in those projects related to charged infrastructures, since the expected traffic volumes are determined by fare levels and the transport conditions; capacity constraints on competing modes and strategies in place, for example in terms of investments foreseen. This point is particularly relevant for long term investments: in the time span required to complete the intervention, the traffic that may be potentially acquired by the new infrastructure may shift to other modes and, if so, then it may be difficult to move it back. spatial changes leading to changes in the distribution of traffic potential; change of traffic management policies, e.g. existence of constraints in using the car in determined areas (this is particularly the case of urban public transport) or establishment of taxes or subsidies for competing modes; technological changes impacting the cost structure for the project and its alternatives through changes in e.g. fuel efficiency, fleet composition or productivity.; Regional 39

40 Regional Demand and option analysis for transport projects No problem with current endowment of infrastructure, but how to account for future projects in always-changing project pipeline; Current and future users how to provide minimum assurance of use of infrastructure? Measures to assure optimal use of infrastructures new requirement for all projects; Demand vs. user-pays principle in transport projects; Feasibility vs. optimal economic rationale of a project; 40

41 Regional Assumptions for traffic forecast the project s impact area, in order to limit the traffic study and the related economic impacts. It is important to identify the demand without the project and the impact of the new infrastructure, as well as identify other transport modes potentially involved; the degree of complementarity and competition among transport modes. In particular, competing modes and alternative routes, fares and costs for users, pricing and regulation policies, congestion and capacity constraints and expected new investments should be assessed; the deviations from past trends, including changes in tax regime, energy prices or toll collection policy; the relative sensitivity of demand patterns (such as modal share or volume of traffic) to changes in the transport supply.; 41

42 Regional Types of traffic existing traffic: current traffic on the network of reference (new projects) or on the infrastructure to be upgraded/reconstructed; diverted traffic: traffic which is attracted to the project from other routes or transport modes; generated/induced traffic: additional traffic flows that result from a transportation infrastructure improvement due to new users attracted by better conditions of transport; 42

43 Regional Financial analysis: investment costs for transport projects Estimates must be based on appropriate benchmarks with projects of comparable characteristics, based on best available technologies, etc.; it is recommended to present both the total cost of the project and the unit value (e.g. cost per km, cost per unit of rolling stock, etc.); costly engineering structures (tunnels, bridges, overpasses, etc.) should always be shown separately in a cost statement to allow for benchmarking; it is necessary to ensure that the project will include all the works required for its functioning (for example, links to the existing networks, technological plants, stations with related services, urban renewal works adjacent to public transport investments, etc.); cost of land and costs for environmental protection, including e.g. noise barriers and other noise protection, drainage, greenery, animal passages, etc., and/or for the integration of the works in the territory (e.g. for the preservation of the landscape integrity, etc.) are usually main items to be included in the investment costs; 43

44 Regional Operation & Maintenance infrastructure operations, e.g. repairs, current maintenance, materials, energy, Traffic Management System; services operations, e.g. staff cost, traffic management expenses, energy consumption, materials, consumables, rolling stocks maintenance, insurance, etc.; services management, e.g. services management itself, fare/tolls collection, company overheads, buildings, administration, etc. As for the timing of the expenditure, O&M costs should cover (and is usually distinguished in): routine maintenance: yearly work required to keep the infrastructure technically safe and ready for day to day operation as well as to prevent deterioration of the infrastructure assets; periodic maintenance: all activities intended to restore the original condition of the infrastructure.; 44

45 Revenue projections The estimation of revenues should be based on the following elements: traffic volume forecast (changes of passenger and cargo traffic); projection of changes in charge system and pricing policy; traffic forecast for each projection of charge system; subsidy/ compensation projection. 45 Regional

46 Revenue projections consolidated analysis Regional 46

47 Regional Residual value Art. 18 of EC Delegated Regulation 480/2014 residual value should only be computed when revenues outweigh operating costs; The residual value should be computed when the economic lifetime of the project exceeds the reference period; The residual value should be computed as the net present value of cash flows in the remaining life years of the operation. Other methods may be used in duly justified cases. 47

48 Regional Financial analysis for transport projects For non-revenue generating projects only financial sustainability analysis is important who will maintain the infrastructure? Tolling requirements and options for best application; Revenue flat rates for rail/road/urban (20%/30%/20%) opportunity for simplification? Cost of projects better harmonisation of unit costs across the MS; 48

49 Regional Economic analysis for transport projects Predetermined set of benefits/costs that should be analysed and quantified (IR 207/2015); Value of Time Savings update data from HEATCO in your national CBA framework(s); Transport TEN-T projects are often trans-national interest to improve consistency of CBA across the MS (also for CEF); 49

50 Typical economic benefits (costs) of transport project Regional 50

51 Regional Sensitivity analysis It is recommended to test at least the following variables: value of time; accident costs; assumptions on GDP and other economic variables trend; rate of increase of traffic over time; number of years necessary for the realisation of the infrastructure; investment and maintenance costs (as disaggregated as possible); fare/tariff/toll. 51

52 Thank you for your attention Regional 52

53 53 For info or further questions on the CBA forum meetings and the activities of the JASPERS Networking Platform, please contact: Massimo Marra JASPERS Networking and Competence Center Senior Officer ph: