The Outlook for Indiana s State Budget, and beyond
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1 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service The Outlook for Indiana s State Budget, and beyond Larry DeBoer Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University January 2010 For more information DeBoer s Indiana Local Government Information website:
2 Indiana State Budget Summary, FY (millions of dollars, updated through December 2009 revenue forecast and reserve statement) Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Budget Avg. Ann. Change Start of Year Balances 1,991 1, ,089 1,286 1,413 1, Sales Tax 3,651 3,687 3,761 4,172 4,721 4,960 5,226 5,379 5,686 6,153 5,932 6, % 0.1% Individual Income Tax 3,753 3,780 3,541 3,644 3,808 4,213 4,322 4,616 4,838 4,314 3,776 4, % -2.3% Corporate Income Tax % -6.5% Gaming % All Other ,072 1, ,370 1,096 1,187 1,125 1,245 1, % 2.8% Total 9,200 9,123 8,796 10,049 10,918 11,489 12,434 12,703 13,203 13,052 12,188 12, % -0.5% K-12 Education 3,905 4,182 4,185 4,380 4,247 4,512 4,582 4,647 4,830 6,169 7,579 7, % 11.5% Higher Education 1,331 1,390 1,411 1,440 1,474 1,528 1,544 1,588 1,654 1,744 1,725 1, % 0.3% Medicaid 1,042 1,144 1,171 1,249 1,266 1,383 1,455 1,525 1,587 1,664 1,821 1, % 6.1% Property Tax Relief 1,057 1,154 1,180 1,157 2,097 2,143 2,153 2,189 2,308 1, % % Health & Social Services ,237 1,354 1, % 4.6% Public Safety % -0.3% All Other 1, , , , % -4.2% Total 9,718 10,190 10,307 10,898 11,310 11,750 12,075 12,359 12,986 14,436 14,331 14, % 0.1% Current Year Surplus/Deficit (518) (1,067) (1,511) (850) (392) (262) (1,384) (2,143) (1,551) ARRA Medicaid ARRA Fiscal Stabilization ARRA Total Transfers from (to) Other Funds Reversions Payment Delays (Reversals) (156) (337) (241) (31) - - Total Adjustments ,135 1, (20) (148) (89) General Fund (327) Tuition Reserve Medicaid Reserve Rainy Day Fund Total 1, ,089 1,286 1,413 1, (327) Total Balances % of Revenue 17.8% 10.0% 6.1% 7.2% 4.9% 6.5% 8.8% 10.1% 10.7% 10.9% 4.4% -2.5% Payment Delay Liability Negative end-of-year balances in fiscal 2011 are as shown in the Budget Agencies' December 15, 2009 statement of reserve balances. Prepared by Larry DeBoer, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University and Purdue Cooperative Extension Service, January
3 Indiana Revenue Projections and Actual, April Forecast December Forecast Actual Revenue Fiscal Year Year Forecast Revenue Year Forecast Revenue Actual Revenue Difference from April Forecast Pct. Chng. From Previous , , , % , , , % , , % , , , % , , ,142.7 (158.9) 2.9% , , ,052.0 (721.3) -1.0% , , ,708.9 (836.5) -3.8% 2003(1) , , ,880.1 (1,112.4) 13.4% , , ,619.9 (72.6) 7.5% , , , % , , , % , , , % 2008(2) , , , % 2009(2) , , ,935.3 (1,438.9) -1.1% Fiscal Years Not Yet Completed May '09 Forecast Dec. '09 Forecast May to Dec , ,076.2 (1,038.9) -6.6% , ,835.7 (796.9) 6.3% Notes: (1) 2003 April and December forecasts are adjusted for added revenues predicted for the 2002 tax reform, including sales tax, corporate tax and gaming tax reforms. (2) 2008 and 2009 April forecasts are adjusted for added revenues predicted for 2008 tax reform, primarily sales tax increases. Difference from forecast and percent change from previous for 2010 and 2011 are based on the December 2009 forecast. Sources: Indiana State Budget Agency, Revenue Forecast Statements and Fiscal Year Closeouts, , ( ). Compiled by Larry DeBoer, Purdue University, December
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6 Scenario 1. Indiana Budget Summary, Scenario 2. Indiana Budget Summary, May 2009 revenue forecast Dec revenue forecast and reserve statement Actual Budget Budget Actual Budget Budget Start of Year Balances 1,413 1,419 1,334 Start of Year Balances 1,413 1, Sales Tax 6,153 6,132 6,438 Sales Tax 6,153 5,932 6,169 Individual Income Tax 4,314 4,289 4,547 Individual Income Tax 4,314 3,776 4,121 Corporate Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Gaming Gaming All Other 1,125 1,322 1,140 All Other 1,125 1,245 1,189 Total 13,052 13,189 13,606 Total 13,052 12,188 12,925 K-12 Education 6,169 7,584 7,669 K-12 Education 6,169 7,579 7,669 Higher Education 1,744 1,726 1,756 Higher Education 1,744 1,725 1,755 Medicaid 1,664 1,821 1,874 Medicaid 1,664 1,821 1,874 Property Tax Relief 1, Property Tax Relief 1, Health & Social Services 1,237 1,354 1,354 Health & Social Services 1,237 1,354 1,354 Public Safety Public Safety All Other 1,122 1,122 1,064 All Other 1, ,029 Total 14,436 14,478 14,512 Total 14,436 14,331 14,476 Current Year Surplus/Deficit (1,385) (464) (397) Current Year Surplus/Deficit (1,384) (2,143) (1,551) ARRA Medicaid ARRA Medicaid ARRA Fiscal Stabilization ARRA Fiscal Stabilization ARRA Total ARRA Total Transfers from (to) Other Funds Transfers from (to) Other Funds Reversions Reversions Payment Delays (Reversals) (31) - - Payment Delays (Reversals) (31) - - Total Adjustments Total Adjustments General Fund General Fund (327) Tuition Reserve Tuition Reserve Medicaid Reserve Medicaid Reserve Rainy Day Fund Rainy Day Fund Total 1,419 1,334 1,008 Total 1, (327) Total Balances % of Revenue 10.9% 10.1% 7.4% Total Balances % of Revenue 10.9% 4.4% -2.5% 5
7 Scenario 3. Indiana Budget Summary, Scenario 4. Indiana Budget Summary, Dec revenue forecast, Governor's reversions Dec revenue forecast, 5% Balances Actual Budget Budget Actual Budget Budget Start of Year Balances 1,413 1, Start of Year Balances 1,413 1, Sales Tax 6,153 5,932 6,169 Sales Tax 6,153 5,932 6,169 Individual Income Tax 4,314 3,776 4,121 Individual Income Tax 4,314 3,776 4,121 Corporate Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Gaming Gaming All Other 1,125 1,245 1,189 All Other 1,125 1,245 1,189 Total 13,052 12,188 12,925 Total 13,052 12,188 12,925 K-12 Education 6,169 7,579 7,669 K-12 Education 6,169 7,579 7,669 Higher Education 1,744 1,725 1,755 Higher Education 1,744 1,725 1,755 Medicaid 1,664 1,821 1,874 Medicaid 1,664 1,821 1,874 Property Tax Relief 1, Property Tax Relief 1, Health & Social Services 1,237 1,354 1,354 Health & Social Services 1,237 1,354 1,354 Public Safety Public Safety All Other 1, ,029 All Other 1, ,029 Total 14,436 14,331 14,476 Total 14,436 14,331 14,476 Current Year Surplus/Deficit (1,384) (2,143) (1,551) Current Year Surplus/Deficit (1,384) (2,143) (1,551) ARRA Medicaid ARRA Medicaid ARRA Fiscal Stabilization ARRA Fiscal Stabilization ARRA Total ARRA Total Transfers from (to) Other Funds Transfers from (to) Other Funds Reversions Reversions Payment Delays (Reversals) (31) - - Payment Delays (Reversals) (31) - - Total Adjustments Total Adjustments General Fund General Fund Tuition Reserve Tuition Reserve Medicaid Reserve Medicaid Reserve Rainy Day Fund Rainy Day Fund Total 1, Total 1, Total Balances % of Revenue 10.9% 5.9% 0.0% Total Balances % of Revenue 10.9% 7.3% 5.0% 6
8 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Indiana State Budget and, Actual , Budgeted , Projected (millions of dollars) + Stimulus, 4% Growth Stimulus, 6.3% Growth Less Reversions
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