Florida: A Budget Overview

Transcription

1 Florida: A Budget Overview August 1, 2011 Presented by: The Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research

2 Coming in to Session... (millions) Pre Session... REC N/R TOTAL Funds Available LRFO L R F O Base Budget Critical Needs LRFO Other High Priorities LRFO Transfer to Budget Stabilization Fund BUDGET GAP LRFO A d j u s t m e n t s Conference Adjustments to Revenue Fall Conference Adjustments to Expenditures Fall BUDGET GAP DECEMBER Planned Reserve from GR Unallocated BUDGET GAP WITH PLANNED RESERVE

3 Closing the Gap... Session 2011 Actions... R Conference Adjustments to Revenue Spring e Change in Revenue Balance Forward on Outlook v e Removal of Reserve for Proj Medicaid Deficit n Transfers from Trust Funds u e Final Measures Affecting Revenue s Adjustments to LFRO Funds Available Improved General Revenue Percent of Final Position 5.6% REMAINING GAP B u d g e t Final Effective Appropriations (GAA, Vetoes, Supps) Estimated Expenditures from LRFO (Plus Fall 2010 Incr) Adjustments to LRFO Estimated dexpenditures Reduced Expenditures Percent of Final Position 94.4% FINAL BALANCE NOTE: Final General Revenue Reserve Balance

4 GR Unallocated... The credit challenges facing the State are its economy and further weakness causing revenue declines, failure to address the drop-off off of federal stimulus moneys included in the budget, reliance on one-time revenues to balance the budget, and the inability to restore and maintain adequate reserves. [Florida Debt Analysis --- Long-Range Financial Outlook]

5 FY FY New Pattern to Budgeting? 70, , % -1.6%

6 Appropriations by Program Area Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent Education 19, % Human Services 29, % Judicial Branch % Criminal Justice and Corrections 4, % Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Management/ Transportation 10, % General Government 4, % Total 69, %

7 FY Budget All Funds Squeezed in

8 Federal Assistance Increased...

9 Prior Year Revenue Shares... Federal Assistance begins to fall back to more typical levels in FY , increasing the pressure on General Revenue.

10 Appropriations by Fund Source... Fiscal Year Appropriations American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of Department Grant Amt Agency for Health Care Administration 1,023,906,376 Agency for Workforce Innovation 511,770 Agriculture and Consumer Services 1,600,000 Children and Family Services 27,819,573 Community Affairs - Education 1,357,309,880 Elder Affairs 500,000 Health 28,632,436 Management Services 1,206,678 Public Service Commission 350,000 Revenue 2,542,871 Transportation 130,000,000 Grand Total 2,574,379, Department Grant Amt Funding Source Dollars Percent Agency for Health Care Administration 280,400,511 Agency for Workforce Innovation 2,457,835 General Revenue 23, % Agriculture and Consumer Services 3,200,000 Other Trust Funds (Federal) 24, % Children and Family Services - State Trust Funds Community Affairs 9,241,211 Education - Tobacco Settlement Trust Fund % Elder Affairs - Education Enhancement Trust Fund 1, % Health 7,349,330 Other Trust Funds (State) 19, % Management Services - Total State Trust Funds 21, % Public Service Commission - Total 69, % Revenue - Transportation - Grand Total 302,648,887 Difference (2,271,730,697)

11 General Revenue Appropriations

12 General Revenue Outlook LR: $627.2 M; positive growth at $932.3 M LR: 6.0%; positive growth at 7.6% Fiscal Year March Forecast July* Forecast Difference (New - Dec) Incremental Growth Growth % #REF! % #REF! % % #REF! % % (49.6) % (59.2) % (76.6) % (101.9) % *Post-Session and Summer Adjustments for End-of-Year, Forecast Changes & Unanticipated Reversions

13 General Revenue Sources... #3 #2 #1 Prior to Refunds

14 Educational Enhancement Trust Fund ($ millions) FUNDS AVAILABLE NON- RECURRING RECURRING TOTAL Total funds available 1, ,422.9 EFFECTIVE APPROPRIATIONS Total effective appropriations AVAILABLE RESERVES FUNDS AVAILABLE Balance forward from Revenues from Lottery ticket sales 1, ,193.5 Revenues from slot machine activity (24.8) Interest earnings Total funds available 1, ,396.0 Growth over Appropriations 23.8 (0.6) % FUNDS AVAILABLE Revenues from Lottery ticket t sales 1, ,212.2 Revenues from slot machine activity Interest earnings Total funds available 1, ,389.4 FUNDS AVAILABLE Revenues from Lottery ticket sales 1, ,231.0 Revenues from slot machine activity Interest earnings Total funds available 1, ,412.7

15 State School Trust Fund FUNDS AVAILABLE NON- ($ millions) RECURRING RECURRING TOTAL Total funds available EFFECTIVE APPROPRIATIONS Total effective appropriations AVAILABLE RESERVES FUNDS AVAILABLE Balance forward from Estimated transfers from Unclaimed Property TF Nonoperating revenue Interest earnings Total funds available Growth over Appropriations 19.3 (168.3) (149.0) -40.4% FUNDS AVAILABLE Estimated transfers from Unclaimed Property TF Nonoperating revenue Interest earnings Total funds available FUNDS AVAILABLE Estimated transfers from Unclaimed Property TF Nonoperating revenue Interest earnings Total funds available

16 Today s Economy

17 Florida Risks to the Forecast... Florida is on a different recovery ypath than the nation as a whole. Recovery will be uneven, and there will be many ups and downs over the next two years. Most of these events have already been built into the prior forecasts --- but not any continuing Oil Spill effects. Some of the improvement we re talking about is actually a lessening of the decline. The economy will be better, but still fragile in the short-term. Oil and Gas price spikes are back on the front-burner. Florida is a diverse state, and areas will differ in their recovery timelines.