Compilation of Quarterly GDP: Methods, Problems, and Solution The case of Thailand

Transcription

1 Strengthening Regional Capacities for Statistical Development in Southeast Asia Project Sponsored by UNSD, ESCAP and ASEAN Secretariat Bangkok, 6-10 August 2001 Compilation of Quarterly GDP: Methods, Problems, and Solution The case of Thailand Somjit Janyapong National Economic and Social Development Board WORKSHOP ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASEAN SHORT-TERM INDICATORS Country report, ASEAN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 1

2 1 Compilation of Quarterly GDP: Methods, Problems, and Solution The case of Thailand 1. Introduction Thailand has subscribed to IMF s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) program since Under this program member countries have to generate and disseminate the recommended information. It comprises real economy data, fiscal data, monetary, prices, balance of payment and the employment issues. Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP) is one of those and it has to be released within 3 months after the reference quarter. Since, it had never been compiled before and it involved many agencies, National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) who is in charge of GDP compilation had cooperated with the Bank of Thailand (BOT) and other concerned agencies to set up a project, called Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Compilation Project. Representatives from related agencies were appointed as members of the steering committee of the program whereas IMF provided some technical assistance. The project started from 1997 to QGDP had been estimated by production approach and expenditure approach 1 item by item, starting from The project had already succeeded with the first release of QGDP, which was standardized SDDS since In the mid 1997, Thailand faced the economic crisis and the statistic of QGDP becomes popular on short-term economic indicators for policy-makers, planners, monitoring, investors, and so on. Therefore, there are two main aims for QGDP compilation. First, QGDP must be able to correctly indicate the direction of economic movement, including turning points. And it must be timeliness; if possible, the most recent estimated QGDP has to be of the previous quarter as the latest. In addition, QGDP figures are presented not only in the original preliminary series but also in the seasonally adjusted form. Seasonally adjusted figures can reflect the real changes in production and expenditure in each quarter since seasonal effects are removed from the estimates leading to capability to compare between two consecutive quarters. In practice, the X-12 computer program in which the moving average technique or multiplication is applied to previous 5 quarters performs the seasonal adjustment. QGDP of Thailand has been released on the third Monday of the third month after the reference quarter by 3 channels: the press release, publication and the NESDB s website. 1 National Accounts of Thailand, based on 1953 SNA, have been compiled by three approaches; production, expenditure and income approach. Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 1

3 2 2. Methodology The methods used for QGDP compilation in the case of Thailand are: 2.1 Direct method: This method is similar to the method used to estimate the annual figure. It can be used the case that quarterly and annual data are the same in term of details e.g. quantities, prices, intermediate cost but they are quarterly reported. The summation of four quarters of QGDP should be equal to its annual figures. In other words, the annual GDP can be directly obtained by summing up the four quarter of QGDP. 2.2 Extrapolation method: The extrapolation method is a standard and most popular one. Each item of QGDP is extrapolated from the benchmarking quarter with its relevant indicator. The correctness of each item depends on the consistency between the indicator and related QGDP item. The results obtained from this method need to be equalized to the later available annual GDP figures. 2.3 Commodity flow method: It is used mainly in estimating of the quarterly change in inventories. 2.4 Sampling survey or primary data collection: This applied to the estimation of the change in inventories during the project ( ). After the project, the commodity flow technique is used. 2.5 Past trend adjustment method: It is used for small items. The adjustment may be based on the average growth rate of the previous year. Or the quarterly value may be obtained from dividing the annual figure by 4. However, this method can lead to a problem of step change between the last quarter of one year and the first quarter of the following. Therefore, it is not recommended other than small items. 3. QGDP compilation As mentioned earlier, QGDP of Thailand has been compiled by two approaches, production and expenditure in accordance with the available data. The production approach is the core one as in the annual estimation. Definition, coverage and valuation used are similar to the annual compilation. While QGDP on production has been classified by ISIC rev.3, CPC has been used for expenditure classification. Their estimations are made both current prices and constant prices. 3.1 QGDP estimation by production approach QGDP on production side has been classified by ISIC rev.3 that comprises 17 categories. Manufacturing sector contributes around 37 percent or one third of GDP. Following by trade sector with its share of 16 percent of GDP. Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 2

4 Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 3 3 Agricultural sector, which was the leading sector of the Thai economy, its contribution to GDP however has continuously declined. 1) Agriculture, hunting and forestry (1) Crops One crop year is normally longer than a quarter. SNA93 suggests that QGDP of crops should include work in progress as part of their output. In the case of Thailand, initially the work in progress was estimated. Based on public consultation, most users prefer the estimates without work in progress saying that they can reflect more realistic. Thus, gross output of crops does not include work in progress. In the future, when the SNA93 is completely applied the work in progress of crops will be considered to include in QGDP as part of the crop output. Gross output of crops is estimated by basing on the crop forecast. The actual output will be available when the annual GDP estimation is carried out. Thus, the correctness of crop forecast depends on factors like rainfall volume, pest and disease etc. The crop forecast is carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture and Agricultural cooperatives. If they can effectively forecast, then QGDP of crops can also be effectively estimated. (2) Livestock Mixed methods are used in this division. The direct method is applied to the items that data are available, e.g. dairy products. The indirect method, related indicators are used for the estimation such as monthly data on the number of slaughtered swine, buffalo, cattle and export of freeze chicken etc. (3) Forestry Charcoal is the main product of this sub-sector. The quarterly information on charcoal and logging is available from Ministry of Agriculture but it is a year lag. 2) Fishing The quantity of caught marine fish and export of shrimp are main products in each quarter. So they are the important indicators for the total output of this division. 3) Mining and quarrying Monthly data on the quantity and value are available from the Department of Mineral and Resource. 4) Manufacturing sector There are two main indicators for the compiling of manufacturing sector, Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) and revenue declare for value added taxes (VAT). About 70 percent of the manufacturing sector is estimated based on MPI and the rest is based on VAT and other relevant indicators. BOT, who

5 4 was in charge of MPI constructing during the project, conducted the survey of manufacturing productions only the large companies. At present, Ministry of Industries takes a role of MPI construction. VAT which is another important indicator provided by the Department of Revenue monthly. There are some problems occurred by using MPI as the indicator. In Thailand, the growth rate of manufacturing sector is usually used to compare to MPI. In fact, the movement of the sector may not be the same direction as MPI due to the two reasons. First, only 70 percent of the manufacturing sector is estimated based on MPI. Second, there are some differences in the structure of manufacturing sector and MPI. In the estimation of manufacturing sector, the value added compilation is carried out at the detail level (ISIC, 4 digits) in every quarter. Thus, its structure will vary from quarter to quarter. On the contrary, the MPI structure is fixed in The MPI works well if the economy is stable. If there is a significant change like in 2000 with a huge drop in liquor production then the impact of MPI is over estimated due to the 1995 fixed structure of MPI. 5) Electricity, gas and water supply Monthly data on output and cost structure are available from the relevant agencies e.g. Metropolitan Electricity Authority, Provincial Electricity Authority, Metropolitan Water Authority, Provincial Water Authority. The direct estimation on each commodity is applied. 6) Construction Direct method is used in this category. Quarterly data on construction permitted area is available. It is obtained from the survey by NSO. 7) Wholesale and retail trade The revenue declared for value added taxes is used as an indicator for both wholesale and retail trade. 8) Hotels and Restaurants The revenue declared for value added taxes is used for restaurant estimation whereas number of tourist is applied for the estimating of hotel. 9) Transportation and communication Most of the producers in this part are government enterprises which their quarterly data are available. They are used as the indicators for other similar activities. The VAT statistics are the other source of indicators for the remaining items. Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 4

6 5 10) Financial intermediation Financial intermediation except insurance and pension fund, half yearly report from all commercial banks is available from BOT. It is used as the main source of indicator for the total division. Reported data is disaggregated into quarters by using quarterly indicators form some major commercial banks. Insurance and other financial businesses are estimated by using related VAT as the indicators. 11) Real estate, renting and business activities Real estate estimation, the quarterly data on land purchasing fees are available from Department of Lands. Rent comprises two components, actual and imputed rents. Socio-economic survey (SES) constructed by National Statistical Office (NSO) is used as a major source of data. Related VAT statistics are mainly used as indicators for various items of other business activities. 12) Public administration and defense The quarterly data on central government expenditure is available from the Comptroller Department. The local government expenditure is provided by NSO s survey. In the case of Thailand, the central government plays a crucial role in this sector with 95 percent sharing of the total government expenditure. 13) Education Public education is the major part in this sector. Therefore, it is used as the indicator for the whole sector including private education. Data availability is the same as 3.12 mentioned above. 14) Health This sector consists of public health and private health. Data on government spending from the Comptroller Department for health activity is directly used for public health compilation whereas the VAT statistic is the indicator for private health. 15) Other community, social and personal services activities Due to lack of quarterly information on this sector, only annual data are available, so related VAT statistics are applied. Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 5

7 16) Private household with employed person 6 Only domestic service is included in this category. The wages and salary and number of employee from labor force survey are used in order to estimate the compensation of household employee. 3.2 QGDP estimation by expenditure approach QGDP on expenditure side measures the expense of the final goods and services. The total expenditure on gross domestic product is the sum of private consumption expenditure, government consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories and net exports. In the case of Thailand, private consumption expenditure contributes about 53 percent of GDP whereas gross fixed capital formation has a share of 18 percent to GDP. 1) Quarterly private consumption expenditure (QPCE) QPCE follows the Central Product Classification (CPC) which can compare and link to ISIC and harmonized system used in import and export classification. The estimation of QPCE is carried out at the three-digit level of CPC. The published figures are shown at the two-digit level. Direct method will be used in the case that data of total sale of goods and services is available. The data include, for example, total sale of cars, electricity, water supply, beverages and tobacco. On the other hand, indirect method is used in the case that quarterly data are not complete or not available. The household consumption per month from SES is used as indicator for the estimating by each item such as food, medicine, and other services. The revenue declared for VAT is also used as the indicator for some item like furniture, trade services and restaurants. 2) Quarterly government consumption expenditure It is estimated by direct method using the actual quarterly government expenditure, which consists of compensation of employees and purchases of goods and services from enterprises and abroad. 3) Quarterly gross fixed capital formation (QGFCF) Direct method is used in the case that total sale of goods and services data are available monthly or quarterly. This kind of data includes, for example, sale of cars, vehicles, transport equipment, construction permitted areas and price per unit. Indirect method, it uses related indicators such as revenue declared for VAT on the items of machinery and office equipment. Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 6

8 4) Quarterly exports and imports 7 Quarterly exports and imports are directly estimated by using quarterly data of export and import from the BOT. The difficulty of this part is the constant price estimation. 5) Quarterly change in inventories 4. Revision of QGDP The commodity flow method is applied to obtain the change in inventories by quarter. However, the survey result from BOT during the project and the survey done by Ministry of Industry, at present, is used for consistency checking. There are 3 releases of QGDP estimate including revision 4.1 First release The first release is to illustrate the result of QGDP compilation based on the indicators including professional judgment to the public. The first release is quite important because it reveals the economic situations in the previous quarter, which are very high on the public interest. Therefore, the first release is not only to quickly present the result of the estimation but, at least, it should also give the right direction of the changing economy. 4.2 Second release or first revision This is a backward adjustment from the current quarter. Aiming at improving the results, which the first revision will be carried out up dated data. Due to the data sources have improved the data and will leaded to be much more accurate and better indicators. 4.3 Second revision QGDP estimated by the indirect method is usually different from the annual figures even though the indicators are good and correct. When the annual figures have been estimated, we believe that they are better than quarterly figures. So, the sum of QGDP from four quarters needs to be equalized to the annual one. This technique is called the second revision. In addition, the QGDP after the second revision can be used as the benchmark for estimating the current quarter. The second revision can be utilized as many times as the backward change happened to the annual figures. It should be noted that the second revision is not a result of new indicators but a result of the mathematical technique i.e. Denton Least Square with the D4 assumption. The Canadian Bench Program and Extrapolation is utilized. Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 7

9 8 5. Limitations of QGDP of Thailand Under the QGDP project, many organizations cooperate to improve the information of the country. Not only new kinds of data are produced such as Quarterly Socio- Economic Survey, Quarterly Labor Force Survey by NSO, and Industrial Monthly Survey by the Office of Industrial Economics but also the improvement of data quality and speeding up the data collection have been seriously carried out. However, the development of data is still an important task for further development of National Accounts Statistics. The main limitations of QGDP estimates are: 5.1 Administrative records are the main data used in QGDP compilation. These data are not normally used in economic evaluation therefore they may be misleading. Particularly, VAT which does not cover all areas of business of the economy. Business whose income is approximately estimated less than 600,000 baht a year is exempted from paying tax. Developed countries like Canada and Australia use the data from the Monthly Business Survey as their main data sources. 5.2 Incompleteness of the data: Because of the urgent announcement of the statistics, the compilation of QGDP cannot wait for some complete data. For examples, sometimes only 2-month data or incomplete results of Socio- Economic Survey are available. If there is no fluctuation in the third month then the QGDP estimates will not create a significant difference from the real situation and vise versa. 5.3 Inconsistency of the calculation in crop estimates: Forecast data are used in the estimation of crops. If the actual data received later is different from the forecast data, then problems in the revision can be expected. 5.4 The fluctuation of statistical discrepancies: The discrepancies come from many factors. However, on the constant price series, CPI is the most important factor, especially price changing in import goods and services. 5.5 Change in inventories problem: Nowadays, the commodity flow technique is the main method used in calculation of change in inventories. Furthermore, the Industrial Business Survey conducted by the Office of Industrial Economics is used as well. In the future, the survey should be extended to cover all industrial activities in order to increase the data quality. 6. Future development 6.1 Data development 1) In the future, data obtained from surveys will be used to replace the administrative records in order to speed up the calculation and also to increase the QGDP quality. At present, new surveys for serving QGDP compilation such as quarterly retail survey is conducting by NSO. Capital expenditure Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 8

10 9 survey (CAPEX) and building activity survey are considering by NSO as well. Moreover, import and export statistic and their prices are being developed by the import-export working group which consists of concern agencies, namely, NESDB, BOT, Custom Department, Office of finance economic and Ministry of Commerce. In addition, NESDB has studying the methodology and quarterly data for QGDP compilation by income approach. 2) NESDB has set up the sub-committee of data coordination for the development of economic and social planning and warning system. This subcommittee has duty to cooperate with various offices such as the National Statistical Office, Ministry of Industrial, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, and Bank of Thailand etc. It aims at developing, improving quality and efficiency on data collection. Furthermore, the up-dated and accuracy data to support policy analysis, economic and social planning are extremely needed. 6.2 Database construction In order to facilitate and increase the efficiency in using data, the three following databases of quarterly indicators have been already established.!"business revenue (revenue declared for VAT);!"Prices Indexes; and!"imports and exports of goods In addition, two databases on SES statistics and MPI will be established in Reference Gross Domestic product: Q1/2001, NESDB Guideline to the quarterly gross domestic product compilation, National Account Division NESDB, January 1999 Quarterly gross domestic product statistics: Compilation technique, NESDB, 2001 Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 9

11 10 APPENDIX Statistical Tables Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 Table 4 Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Current Market Prices Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at 1998 Price (Original) Gross National Product at Current Market Prices (Original) Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Original) Table 4.1 Percentage Change from Same Period of Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Original) Table 4.2 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Original) Private Consumption Expenditure at Current Market Prices (Original) Private Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Original) Table 6.1 Percentage Change from Same Period of Private Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Original) Table 6.2 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Private Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Original) General Government Consumption Expenditure at Current Market Prices (Original) General Government Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Original) Table 8.1 Percentage Change from Same Period of General Government Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Original) Table 8.2 Percentage Change from Previous Period of General Government Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Original) Gross Fixed Capital Formation at Current Market Prices Classified by Type of Capital (Original) Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Type of Capital (Original) Table 10.1 Percentage Change from Same Period of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Type of Capital (Original) Table 10.2 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Type of Capital (Original) Gross Fixed Capital Formation at Current Market Prices Classified by Private and Public Institutions (Original) Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 10

12 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Table 16 Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Private and Public Institutions (Original) Table 12.1 Percentage Change from Same Period of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Private and Public Institutions (Original) Table 12.2 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Private and Public Institutions (Original) Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Table 13.1 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Private Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Table 14.1 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Private Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) General Government Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Table 15.1 Percentage Change from Previous Period of General Government Consumption Expenditure at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Type of Capital (Seasonally Adjusted) Table 16.1 Percentage Change from Previous Period of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 1988 Prices Classified by Type of Capital (Seasonally Adjusted) Country report, ASEARN short-term indicators, ESCAP, 6-10 Aug 11

13 Private Consumptio n Expenditure (1) General Government Consumptio n Expenditure (2) Gross Fixed capital Formation(3 ) Table 1 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Current Market Prices (Original) Change in Inventories( 4) Exports of Goods and Services(5) Exports of Goods(6) Exports of Services(7) Imports of Goods and Services(8) Imports of Goods(9) Imports of Services(10) Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product(11) (Millions of Baht) Statistical Discrepancy (12) Gross Domestic Product(13) ,732, ,982 1,252,920 13,301 1,198, , ,181 1,317,631 1,141, ,839 3,195,772-25,514 3,170,258 Q1 424,487 71, ,533-5, , ,323 72, , ,612 32, , ,950 Q2 442,065 75, ,427-1, , ,132 62, , ,753 37, ,162-33, ,268 Q3 424,495 89, , , ,019 66, , ,081 39, ,776-31, ,397 Q4 441,291 80, ,774 19, , ,207 77, , ,346 66, ,967 39, , ,959, ,387 1,450,216 10,020 1,408,699 1,115, ,737 1,584,474 1,343, ,294 3,598,580 35,917 3,634,497 Q1 477,497 84, ,440 9, , ,713 77, , ,889 51, ,704 22, ,618 Q2 501,565 82, ,255-16, , ,353 64, , ,572 63, , ,545 Q3 479, , ,904-8, , ,802 66, , ,194 58, ,771-18, ,214 Q4 501,644 84, ,617 24, , ,094 84, , ,525 68, ,056 32, , ,224, ,121 1,716,092 38,374 1,749,309 1,379, ,014 2,030,829 1,753, ,738 4,113,290 79,407 4,192,697 Q1 540, , ,053-12, , , , , ,642 63,714 1,005,733 28,904 1,034,637 Q2 570,715 99, ,565 37, , ,029 84, , ,363 72,727 1,041,182-15,202 1,025,980 Q3 548, , ,376 30, , ,675 83, , ,443 62,550 1,069,642-34,483 1,035,159 Q4 564,390 97, ,098-16, , ,056 99, , ,643 78, , ,188 1,096, ,482, ,535 1,886,105 36,052 1,807,318 1,376, ,008 2,096,642 1,793, ,685 4,587,288 35,544 4,622,832 Q1 582, , ,992-4, , , , , ,351 68,938 1,063,285 56,804 1,120,089 Q2 636, , ,540 26, , , , , ,737 79,640 1,135,322 16,593 1,151,915 Q3 627, , ,905 22, , , , , ,997 71,788 1,188,574-33,977 1,154,597 Q4 637, , ,668-9, , , , , ,872 82,319 1,200,107-3,876 1,196, ,592, ,047 1,581,421-1,367 2,266,015 1,783, ,282 2,199,019 1,868, ,521 4,718,411 21,838 4,740,249 Q1 657, , ,066 5, , , , , ,520 72,856 1,151,746 7,377 1,159,123 Q2 684, , , , , , , ,051 78,590 1,152,082 16,683 1,168,765 Q3 631, , ,915-15, , , , , ,188 79,638 1,193,774-12,035 1,181,739 Q4 618, , ,295 8, , , , , ,739 99,437 1,220,809 9,813 1,230, ,516, ,905 1,028,254-87,594 2,717,728 2,174, ,871 1,982,682 1,671, ,954 4,705,123-76,692 4,628,431 Q1 635, , ,670-17, , , , , ,550 74,219 1,244,979-33,024 1,211,955 Q2 642, , ,036-12, , , , , ,316 71,530 1,141,834-23,533 1,118,301 Q3 606, , ,163-55, , , , , ,845 77,498 1,150,312-37,717 1,112,595 Q4 631, , ,385-1, , , , , ,017 87,707 1,167,998 17,582 1,185, p 2,600, , ,090-6,797 2,698,518 2,145, ,259 2,115,557 1,795, ,217 4,627,579-12,191 4,615,388 Q1 648, , , , , , , ,247 66,891 1,166,717-4,605 1,162,112 Q2 643, , ,281-2, , , , , ,832 83,402 1,104,598-8,922 1,095,676 Q3 636, , ,545-18, , , , , ,221 80,033 1,156,389-11,966 1,144,423 Q4 672, , ,973 14, , , , , ,040 89,891 1,199,875 13,302 1,213, p1 2,761, ,066 1,045,634 65,096 3,250,511 2,733, ,177 2,846,280 2,513, ,813 4,841,940 58,390 4,900,330 Q1 685, , ,505 25, , , , , ,860 76,166 1,239,173-20,465 1,218,708 Q2 683, , ,450 35, , , , , ,705 83,453 1,180,858 7,895 1,188,753 Q3 678, , ,905-15, , , , , ,548 86,636 1,187,235 23,435 1,210,670 Q4 714, , ,774 19, , , , , ,354 86,558 1,234,674 47,525 1,282, p1 Q1 722, , ,644 36, , , , , ,201 88,407 1,248,465 21,526 1,269,991 p = preliminary based on annual figure p1 = without annual figure

14 Private Consumptio n Expenditure (1) General Government Consumptio n Expenditure (2) Gross Fixed capital Formation(3 ) Table 2 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at 1988 Prices (Original) Change in Inventories( 4) Exports of Goods and Services(5) Exports of Goods(6) Exports of Services(7) Imports of Goods and Services(8) Imports of Goods(9) Imports of Services(10) Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product(11) (Millions of Baht) Statistical Discrepancy (12) Gross Domestic Product(13) ,380, , ,746 12,761 1,048, , ,944 1,110, , ,364 2,533,342-59,405 2,473,937 Q1 343,196 45, ,762-5, , ,466 57, , ,044 26, , ,547 Q2 354,570 48, ,873-1, , ,659 49, , ,702 30, ,073-44, ,507 Q3 335,656 59, , , ,831 52, , ,896 32, ,286-38, ,592 Q4 346,963 50, ,811 19, , ,437 59, , ,091 53, ,822 24, , ,489, ,937 1,111,153 9,583 1,197, , ,595 1,284,927 1,097, ,895 2,743,493-48,080 2,695,413 Q1 365,620 52, ,330 8, , ,183 59, , ,217 40, ,438 11, ,590 Q2 380,743 52, ,966-13, , ,816 49, , ,778 49, , ,484 Q3 362,945 67, ,515-6, , ,341 50, , ,031 45, ,217-43, ,400 Q4 379,762 48, ,342 21, , ,742 63, , ,006 52, , , ,597, ,316 1,233,017 40,108 1,384,194 1,113, ,818 1,540,240 1,331, ,736 2,948,347-2,095 2,946,252 Q1 397,771 56, ,173-11, , ,724 76, , ,285 48, ,454 18, ,816 Q2 409,461 56, ,165 51, , ,608 62, , ,964 55, ,452-40, ,299 Q3 391,218 67, ,068 30, , ,684 60, , ,371 46, ,732-40, ,065 Q4 399,502 52, ,611-29, , ,360 71, , ,884 58, ,709 60, , ,691, ,173 1,316,396 24,814 1,307,912 1,002, ,961 1,532,256 1,312, ,935 3,069,119 50,502 3,119,621 Q1 402,075 60, ,370-1, , ,702 82, , ,296 50, ,839 48, ,434 Q2 434,361 61, ,385 17, , ,925 74, , ,383 58, ,293 13, ,752 Q3 427,124 71, ,656 14, , ,014 71, , ,148 51, ,076-18, ,240 Q4 427,520 66, ,985-4, , ,310 76, , ,494 58, ,911 7, , ,671, ,215 1,038,328-2,240 1,416,697 1,090, ,069 1,357,023 1,124, ,974 3,021,891 52,637 3,074,528 Q1 432,283 62, ,528 3, , ,843 82, , ,740 51, ,806 16, ,757 Q2 447,934 60, , , ,893 78, , ,873 55, ,738 16, ,317 Q3 404,689 72, ,040-9, , ,483 74, , ,017 56, , ,879 Q4 387,008 59, ,386 5, , ,409 91, , ,419 69, ,339 19, , ,479, , ,439-55,823 1,509,413 1,159, ,163 1,062, , ,642 2,704,328 39,032 2,743,360 Q1 382,592 58, ,522-11, , , , , ,499 51, ,314-1, ,943 Q2 374,600 56, ,776-18, , ,090 79, , ,101 49, ,999 7, ,897 Q3 351,906 80, ,182-23, , ,175 82, , ,340 53, ,772-2, ,457 Q4 370,750 68, ,959-2, , ,555 87, , ,398 60, ,243 34, , p 1,538, , ,376 4,388 1,659,189 1,300, ,520 1,175, , ,529 2,839,566 19,593 2,859,159 Q1 377,706 57, , , , , , ,067 45, ,326 7, ,670 Q2 378,966 62, ,893-1, , ,688 75, , ,264 56, ,007 22, ,417 Q3 380,636 75, ,926-18, , ,975 83, , ,733 54, ,786 3, ,786 Q4 401,479 71, ,697 13, , ,093 97, , ,333 60, ,447-13, , p1 1,610, , ,905 40,175 1,916,873 1,588, ,915 1,417,905 1,199, ,577 3,009,039-24,078 2,984,961 Q1 397,324 65, ,733 15, , ,144 86, , ,520 51, ,301 5, ,815 Q2 398,194 69, ,377 21, , ,563 76, , ,400 54, , ,514 Q3 396,451 80, ,439-8, , ,223 78, , ,363 57, ,474-20, ,483 Q4 418,071 67, ,356 12, , ,028 85, , ,045 56, ,670-9, , p1 Q1 409,485 66, ,278 23, , ,115 90, , ,287 57, ,554 4, ,096

15 Agriculture( Agriculture, 1) Hunting and Forestry(2) Table 4 Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Original) Fishing(3) Non- Mining and Manufacturing(6) Agriculture( Quarrying(5 4) ) Electricity, Construction Gas and (8) Water Supply(7) (Millions of Baht) Wholesale and Hotels and Transport, Retail Trade, Restaurants( Storage Repair of 10) and Vehicles and Communication(11) Personal and Household Goods(9) , ,755 45,548 2,215,634 40, ,936 62, , ,182 98, ,419 Q1 69,136 58,494 10, ,410 9, ,936 14,249 36, ,391 24,770 47,409 Q2 50,601 39,863 10, ,907 10, ,737 16,439 37, ,028 23,221 48,347 Q3 50,896 39,844 11, , ,012 16,277 43, ,584 24,418 47,308 Q4 87,670 74,554 13, ,620 9, ,251 15,288 33, ,179 26,327 48, , ,732 49,804 2,424,876 43, ,364 68, , , , ,273 Q1 69,548 58,076 11, ,041 10, ,310 15,381 41, ,409 25,767 52,162 Q2 47,911 36,344 11, ,573 10, ,897 17,688 41, ,355 24,705 53,254 Q3 53,204 40,369 12, ,196 11, ,462 17,755 45, ,572 24,352 52,411 Q4 99,873 85,943 13, ,066 10, ,695 18,086 43, ,007 26,596 55, , ,021 50,731 2,664,500 44, ,964 79, , , , ,090 Q1 74,051 61,708 12, ,765 10, ,044 18,334 44, ,608 26,714 59,842 Q2 62,242 50,269 11, ,057 11, ,881 21,093 45, ,275 25,647 60,405 Q3 54,083 41,514 12, ,982 11, ,340 19,603 48, ,846 25,611 57,486 Q4 91,376 77,530 13, ,696 10, ,699 20,053 44, ,126 27,523 61, , ,156 49,998 2,826,467 52,879 1,019,377 83, , , , ,076 Q1 76,237 63,616 12, ,197 11, ,561 19,664 48, ,952 26,855 64,760 Q2 66,103 54,695 11, ,649 12, ,590 21,467 48, ,167 28,199 67,220 Q3 57,253 45,126 12, ,987 13, ,666 21,172 52, ,885 26,185 67,944 Q4 93,561 79,719 13, ,634 14, ,560 20,788 46, ,017 27,787 67, , ,421 47,546 2,782,561 59,950 1,033,896 87, , , , ,657 Q1 77,097 64,794 12, ,660 13, ,777 20,265 33, ,548 28,309 67,464 Q2 64,959 54,405 10, , ,040 23,300 36, ,234 27,514 69,201 Q3 56,444 45,004 11, ,435 16, ,543 22,689 45, ,819 24,666 72,781 Q4 93,467 80,218 13, ,108 15, ,536 21,228 29, ,843 25,172 70, , ,016 48,649 2,460,695 56, ,921 85,962 88, , , ,244 Q1 75,511 62,956 12, ,432 13, ,630 21,693 23, ,764 25,995 65,031 Q2 57,224 47,165 10, ,673 13, ,934 23,114 20, ,172 24,034 58,964 Q3 52,052 41,167 10, ,405 14, ,538 21,192 25, ,777 24,300 62,894 Q4 97,878 82,728 15, ,185 13, ,819 19,963 18, ,339 26,179 67, p 290, ,541 46,776 2,568,842 61,309 1,024,733 89,134 83, , , ,544 Q1 77,638 64,496 13, , ,428 20,944 17, ,751 27,316 66,184 Q2 60,754 51,184 9, ,663 14, ,416 22,327 18, ,037 24,842 65,696 Q3 56,634 45,547 11, ,152 16, ,177 23,733 26, ,003 25,921 66,636 Q4 95,291 82,314 12, ,995 16, ,712 22,130 19, ,281 28,538 72, p1 298, ,208 46,852 2,686,901 64,184 1,085,104 98,381 75, , , ,431 Q1 75,964 64,216 11, ,851 15, ,905 23,231 19, ,863 29,365 71,133 Q2 64,247 53,524 10, ,267 16, ,259 24,972 18, ,798 26,527 69,451 Q3 59,265 48,519 10, ,218 16, ,484 24,991 22, ,310 27,104 71,824 Q4 98,584 84,949 13, ,565 15, ,456 25,187 14, ,525 29,983 80, p1 Q1 77,727 65,193 12, ,369 14, ,404 24,484 18, ,910 30,707 73,708

16 Financial Intermediat ion(12) Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities(1 3) Public Administrati on and Defence;Co mpulsory Social Security(14 ) Education(1 5) Health and Social Work(16) Other Private Community, Household Social and with Personal Employed Service Persons(18) Activities(17 ) Gross Domestic Product(19) (Millions of Baht) Plus : Net Factor Income Payment from the Rest of the World(20) Gross National Product(21) ,989 96,943 68,130 58,650 26,827 35,592 3,496 2,473,937-46,302 2,427,635 Q1 40,365 22,929 18,172 13,784 6,896 8, ,546-10, ,694 Q2 40,984 23,747 16,342 14,383 6,708 8, ,508-17, ,218 Q3 43,962 24,852 16, ,192 9, ,593-11, ,490 Q4 44,678 25,415 17,153 15,553 7,031 9, ,290-7, , , ,652 70,114 59,867 28,168 36,783 3,432 2,695,412-38,241 2,657,171 Q1 47,244 24,890 19,547 15,007 7,423 9, ,589-7, ,576 Q2 50,777 25,393 17,150 15,058 7,316 9, ,484-12, ,047 Q3 47,972 26,130 17,770 15,740 6,712 9, ,400-10, ,347 Q4 51,681 27,239 15,647 14,062 6,717 8, ,939-8, , , ,901 78,494 65,877 30,748 40,616 3,365 2,946,252-40,986 2,905,266 Q1 50,353 26,573 21,832 17,420 8,166 9, ,816-8, ,484 Q2 54,512 26,570 18,694 15,829 7,985 10, ,299-14, ,719 Q3 51,159 28,333 19,163 16,345 7,268 10, ,065-10, ,555 Q4 54,252 28,425 18,805 16,283 7,329 10, ,072-7, , , ,918 83,492 68,494 32,545 49,873 3,317 3,119,621-58,250 3,061,371 Q1 51,109 25,958 22,497 16,828 7,643 11, ,434-12, ,421 Q2 54,679 28,361 20,181 16,662 8,256 12, ,752-21, ,570 Q3 57,327 29,848 20,355 17,322 8,172 13, ,240-14, ,286 Q4 56,624 30,751 20,459 17,682 8,474 12, ,195-10, , , ,411 86,231 72,979 35,415 51,328 3,341 3,074,528-64,300 3,010,228 Q1 46,666 28,115 22,744 17,597 8,203 12, ,757-11, ,670 Q2 52,939 29,089 20, ,113 12, ,317-21, ,882 Q3 46,203 29,822 21,049 18,624 8,837 13, ,879-17, ,356 Q4 50,256 29,385 21,603 18,747 9,262 13, ,575-14, , , ,217 92,384 80,480 37,205 48,650 3,401 2,743,360-72,188 2,671,172 Q1 40,712 28,915 24,324 19,092 8,742 12, ,943-15, ,615 Q2 38,542 28,576 21,867 18,605 8,952 11, ,897-23, ,430 Q3 33,479 28,669 22,673 20,491 9,566 11, ,457-18, ,663 Q4 25,360 27,057 23,520 22,292 9,945 12, ,063-14, , p 84, ,200 93,750 81,691 37,692 54,687 3,365 2,859,159-56,890 2,802,269 Q1 22,066 28,859 24, ,313 13, ,670-23, ,636 Q2 21,263 28,230 21,875 19,285 8,871 13, ,417-14, ,633 Q3 22,958 30,956 23,387 20,289 9,648 13, ,786-12, ,013 Q4 18,176 30,155 23,668 21,706 9,860 14, ,286-6, , p1 79, ,529 95,338 84,125 41,133 58,652 3,354 2,984,961-8,633 2,976, p1 Table 4 Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Original) Q1 20,644 30,262 24,657 21,703 9,657 14, ,815-2, ,531 Q2 20,067 30,160 23,873 20,322 9,662 14, ,514-5, ,315 Q3 21,569 31,375 24,425 20,802 10,455 14, ,483-1, ,568 Q4 17,468 31,732 22,383 21,298 11,359 15, , ,914 Q1 20,722 31,385 25,585 20,879 9,876 14, ,096 5, ,288

17 Agriculture( Agriculture, 1) Hunting and Forestry(2) Table 13 Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Fishing(3) Non- Mining and Manufacturing(6) Agriculture( Quarrying(5 4) ) Electricity, Constructio Gas and n(8) Water Supply(7) (Millions of Baht) Wholesale and Hotels and Retail Trade, Restaurants Repair of (10) Vehicles and Personal and Household Goods(9) Transport, Storage and Communication(11) , ,830 45,524 2,215,288 40, ,238 62, , ,242 98, ,429 Q1 66,063 55,022 11, ,838 9, ,108 14,964 36,057 99,057 24,066 46,133 Q2 59,348 47,969 11, ,907 10, ,144 15,534 38, ,624 23,830 47,482 Q3 65,973 54,664 11, , ,475 16,047 40, ,089 25,264 48,730 Q4 65,970 54,175 11, ,720 10, ,511 15,676 35, ,472 25,583 49, , ,289 49,833 2,424,235 43, ,376 68, , , , ,148 Q1 66,520 54,700 11, ,574 10, ,840 16,153 41, ,065 25,024 50,874 Q2 55,829 43,505 12, ,578 10, ,604 16,715 42, ,857 25,313 52,395 Q3 68,504 55,372 13, ,612 11, ,812 17,499 42, ,996 25,225 53,844 Q4 75,269 62,712 12, ,471 11, ,120 18,571 45, ,429 25,892 56, , ,610 50,855 2,663,674 44, ,240 79, , , , ,612 Q1 70,673 58,128 12, ,533 11, ,270 19,221 45, ,375 25,901 58,682 Q2 72,593 59,680 12, ,241 11, ,875 19,928 46, ,497 26,219 59,723 Q3 69,927 57,031 12, ,801 11, ,774 19,337 44, ,362 26,593 58,685 Q4 69,272 56,771 12, ,099 11, ,321 20,629 47, ,692 26,864 61, , ,010 50,067 2,826,139 52,868 1,019,506 83, , , , ,513 Q1 72,558 60,017 12, ,588 12, ,364 20,546 50, ,823 25,924 63,986 Q2 76,948 64,398 12, ,739 12, ,885 20,299 50, ,085 28,842 67,141 Q3 74,506 61,948 12, ,353 12, ,193 20,875 46, ,507 27,240 68,701 Q4 71,065 58,647 12, ,459 15, ,064 21,481 49, ,944 27,179 66, , ,690 47,585 2,781,590 59,872 1,033,600 87, , , , ,168 Q1 73,078 61,108 11, ,626 14, ,142 21,039 35, ,982 27,171 67,123 Q2 75,657 63,800 11, , ,533 22,090 38, ,121 28,233 69,876 Q3 73,569 61,586 11, ,238 15, ,524 22,359 38, ,612 25,706 73,243 Q4 70,971 59,196 11, ,054 15, ,401 22,006 31, ,174 24,623 68, , ,930 48,346 2,461,086 56, ,585 86,010 88, , , ,810 Q1 71,409 59,364 12, ,852 14, ,689 22,409 25, ,612 24,811 64,905 Q2 66,777 55,337 11, ,003 13, ,247 21,974 21, ,236 24,799 60,135 Q3 67,607 56,035 11, ,820 13, ,653 20,841 20, ,675 25,339 63,359 Q4 74,483 61,194 13, ,411 13, ,996 20,786 19, ,930 25,575 65, p 290, ,591 46,690 2,568,952 61,278 1,024,853 89,212 83, , , ,334 Q1 73,272 60,686 12, , ,929 21,527 19, ,579 25,970 66,120 Q2 71,271 60,366 10, ,271 15, ,214 21,270 20, ,403 25,767 67,325 Q3 73,654 61,768 11, ,099 15, ,356 23,329 21, ,290 27,041 67,467 Q4 72,084 60,771 11, ,561 16, ,354 23,086 21, ,155 27,818 69, p1 299, ,155 46,879 2,687,273 64,216 1,085,138 98,499 75, , , ,185 Q1 71,780 60,500 11, ,832 16, ,682 23,815 20, ,797 27,867 71,013 Q2 75,521 63,357 12, ,409 16, ,500 23,810 20, ,440 27,613 71,356 Q3 77,291 65,699 11, ,981 15, ,226 24,565 18, ,882 28,270 72,947 Q4 74,442 62,599 11, ,051 15, ,730 26,309 16, ,490 29,192 76, p1 Q1 73,623 61,553 12, ,984 15, ,015 25,041 19, ,247 29,123 73,577

18 Financial Intermediat ion(12) Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities(1 3) Public Administrati on and Defence;Co mpulsory Social Security(14 ) Education(1 5) Health and Social Work(16) Other Private Community, Household Social and with Personal Employed Service Persons(18) Activities(17 ) Gross Domestic Product(19) (Millions of Baht) Plus : Net Factor Income Payment from the Rest of the World(20) Gross National Product(21) ,816 96,876 68,194 58,641 26,803 35,609 3,497 2,472,642-45,771 2,426,871 Q1 41,177 23,483 16,518 13,793 6,660 8, ,901-12, ,673 Q2 40,269 24,158 16,828 14,536 6,513 8, ,255-12, ,807 Q3 44,219 24,478 16, ,568 9, ,796-13, ,032 Q4 44,151 24,757 17,878 15,413 7,062 9, ,690-7, , , ,625 70,034 59,877 28,115 36,781 3,443 2,690,357-35,010 2,655,347 Q1 48,531 25,553 17,788 15,012 7,217 9, ,094-9, ,004 Q2 49,851 25,797 17,661 15,229 7,105 9, ,407-5, ,025 Q3 48,022 25,720 18,318 15,705 7,059 9, ,116-12, ,007 Q4 51,000 26,555 16,267 13,931 6,734 8, ,740-8, , , ,902 78,376 65,868 30,654 40,627 3,371 2,946,139-41,868 2,904,271 Q1 52,301 27,328 19,910 17,398 8,050 9, ,206-11, ,076 Q2 53,316 26,942 19,275 16,064 7,746 10, ,834-8, ,468 Q3 50,837 27,846 19,732 16,289 7,552 10, ,728-10, ,485 Q4 53,550 27,786 19,459 16,117 7,306 10, ,371-12, , , ,899 83,415 68,476 32,436 49,862 3,330 3,121,216-59,903 3,061,313 Q1 53,734 26,699 20,602 16,762 7,660 11, ,146-15, ,833 Q2 53,375 28,736 20,862 17,004 8,054 12, ,687-15, ,887 Q3 56,115 29,228 20,907 17,253 8,364 13, ,859-11, ,946 Q4 56,493 30,236 21,044 17,457 8,358 12, ,524-16, , , ,492 86,179 72,960 35,309 51,308 3,333 3,074,865-63,546 3,011,319 Q1 49,231 28,862 20,938 17,462 8,345 12, ,704-13, ,222 Q2 51,874 29,440 21, ,999 12, ,329-16, ,483 Q3 44,283 29,136 21,543 18,562 8,922 13, ,807-13, ,739 Q4 51,130 29,054 22,081 18,419 9,043 13, ,025-20, , , ,371 92,333 80,398 37,117 48,614 3,402 2,741,362-71,119 2,670,243 Q1 42,764 29,602 22,521 18,895 8,933 12, ,261-16, ,378 Q2 37,979 28,902 22,758 19,248 9,026 11, ,780-19, ,830 Q3 31,419 27,947 23,130 20,465 9,525 11, ,427-17, ,676 Q4 26,482 26,920 23,924 21,790 9,633 12, ,894-16, , p 84, ,251 93,705 81,643 37,654 54,658 3,367 2,859,233-57,360 2,801,873 Q1 22,899 29,421 23, ,526 12, ,293-22, ,761 Q2 21,069 28,538 22,825 20,056 9,091 13, ,542-11, ,981 Q3 21,238 30,167 23,792 20,304 9,520 13, ,753-12, ,771 Q4 19,400 30,125 24,009 21,132 9,517 14, ,645-10, , p1 79, ,580 95,426 84,132 41,073 58,633 3,351 2,986,307-10,107 2,976, p1 Table 13 Gross National Product at 1988 Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) Q1 21,183 30,736 22,984 21,392 9,864 14, ,612-2, ,002 Q2 19,927 30,516 24,952 21,208 9,998 14, , ,995 Q3 19,842 30,545 24,802 20,834 10,269 14, ,272-3, ,579 Q4 18,859 31,783 22,688 20,698 10,942 15, ,493-2, ,624 Q1 21,077 31,793 23,876 20,559 10,104 14, ,607 5, ,645