Rainy Day Fund Best Practices
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1 Rainy Day Fund Best Practices Presentation to the North Carolina Committee on Savings Reserve Account by Robert Zahradnik, Director, States Fiscal Health April 13, 2016
2 Research by Pew on Rainy Day Funds Three Pew Reports to Date Have Identified Elements of Sound Rainy Day Fund Design Causes and effects of volatility on state budgets Best practices for depositing money into rainy day funds Defining purpose and right-sizing rainy day funds
3 Revenue Fluctuations in North Carolina North Carolina Tax Collections, , Year-Over-Year Growth 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Source: Pew Analysis of state tax collections, Rockefeller Institute of Government, SUNY, Albany, N.Y.
4 Why Does Volatility Matter? Influences timing and size of state budget surpluses and shortfalls Unpredictability confounds best efforts to craft and execute balanced budgets Smoothing volatility across the business cycle can help create a structurally sustainable long-term budget
5 Saving Based on Surplus North Carolina is one of 19 states that saves based on how much money is left at end of fiscal year
6 The Problems with Depositing Based on Year-End Surplus Makes saving a low priority Not necessarily tied to the business cycle
7 Best Practice: 14 States Link Rainy Day Fund Deposits to Volatility
8 Harnessing Volatility for Rainy Day Funds Some states link deposits to volatility in overall revenues Deposits half of general revenue that VA exceeds the six-year average growth rate. Deposits are made if general fund revenue grows more than 4 percent. ID Deposits do not exceed 1 percent of annual revenues.
9 Harnessing Volatility for Rainy Day Funds Some states link deposits to a single, volatile revenue stream MA Massachusetts deposits capital gains tax revenue in excess of a threshold that grows with the economy. TX Texas deposits ¾ of oil and gas severance tax revenue above the benchmark revenue from 1987
10 Other Uses of Above-Trend Revenue Some states link one-time revenues to other one-time priorities UT In 2015, legislators directed abovetrend general fund revenue toward capital improvements. CT Passed legislation to use some abovetrend capital gains and corporate income taxes to pay down State Employee Retirement Fund s unfunded liabilities.
11 When to Use Rainy Day Funds North Carolina is one of 5 states without withdrawal rules
12 Promising Practices for Withdrawal Rules Establish in law clear and objective conditions for withdrawal Base conditions on objective measures like revenue or economic volatility Use savings to fill one-time or temporary budget gaps, not gaps caused by structural budget issues
13 Rainy Day Fund Size Is North Carolina's savings target of 8 percent of general fund revenues enough? Why are we saving? What is our desired level of coverage? How many years do we want to be covered for?
14 Minnesota Evaluated Why It Saves Minnesota s Savings Target Purpose: Cover entire revenue shortfall during a recession Length: Two years Risk: Coverage for 9 out of 10 possible recessions
15 Steps to Improve the Savings Reserve Account Implement a volatility study to inform rainy day fund design Tie savings rule to volatility Establish withdrawal conditions
16 Robert Zahradnik pewstates.org/fiscal-health
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