RESERVE FUNDS IN OREGON
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1 RESERVE FUNDS IN OREGON HISTORY & STATUS Legislative Revenue Office
2 Oregon Reserve Fund Characteristics Elements Education Stability Fund Oregon Rainy Day Fund When Created Legal Authorization Constitutional Statutory Methods of Deposit 18% of Lottery Earnings One-Time Corporate Kicker Credit GF Ending Balance up to 1% of Prior Biennium Appropriations Portion of corporate income tax collections Methods of Withdrawal 3/5 Vote in each Chamber and Revenue Forecast down 2% from COS Payroll Employment Down 2 Consecutive Quarters Last Session Forecast shows 3% Decline in Revenue Governor Declares Emergency Same as Education Stability Fund except no Governor Emergency declaration Withdrawals cannot exceed 2/3 of Beginning Balance for any Biennium Repayment Provisions None None Fund Size 5% of Prior Biennium Revenues 7.5% of Prior Biennium Appropriations
3 Oregon s Current Reserve Fund Position (March 2017 Revenue Forecast) Biennium Beginning Balance Education Stability Fund Rainy Day Fund (in millions) General Fund Ending Balance* Reserves Available $179.4 $211.8 $391.1 Deposits $203.8 $170.0 $373.8 Interest $5.2 $6.3 $11.5 Withdrawals -$5.2 -$5.2 Projected Ending Balance % of Co-Chairs Budget $383.2 $388.1 $204 $ % 1.9% 1.0% 4.8% *Projected ending balance from Co-chairs Framework Budget
4 GENERAL FUND REVENUE PERCENT CHANGE FROM PRIOR BIENNIUM 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% GENERAL FUND REVENUE TREND
5 Reserve Fund Trigger History through Forecast Employment Revenue Forecast Employment Revenue Forecast Employment Revenue 2001:Q3 Yes Yes 2004:Q2 Yes Yes 2007:Q1 No No 2001:Q4 Yes Yes 2004:Q3 No Yes 2007:Q2 No No 2002:Q1 Yes Yes 2004:Q4 No Yes 2007:Q3 No No 2002:Q2 Yes Yes 2005:Q1 No Yes 2007:Q4 No No 2002:Q3 Yes Yes 2005:Q2 No No 2008:Q1 No No 2002:Q4 Yes Yes 2005:Q3 No No 2008:Q2 No No 2003:Q1 No Yes 2005:Q4 No No 2008:Q3 No No 2003:Q2 Yes Yes 2006:Q1 No No 2008:Q4 Yes Yes 2003:Q3 Yes No 2006:Q2 No No 2009:Q1 Yes Yes 2003:Q4 Yes No 2006:Q3 No No 2009:Q2 Yes Yes 2004:Q1 Yes Yes 2006:Q4 No No
6 Reserve Fund Trigger History through Forecast Employment Revenue Forecast Employment Revenue Forecast Employment Revenue 2009:Q3 Yes No 2011:Q4 No Yes 2014:Q1 No No 2009:Q4 Yes No 2012:Q1 No Yes 2014:Q2 No No 2010:Q1 Yes Yes 2012:Q2 No No 2014:Q3 No No 2010:Q2 Yes Yes 2012:Q3 No No 2014:Q4 No No 2010:Q3 Yes Yes 2012:Q4 No No 2015:Q1 No No 2010:Q4 Yes Yes 2013:Q1 No No 2015:Q2 No No 2011:Q1 No Yes 2013:Q2 No No 2011:Q2 No Yes 2013:Q3 No No 2011:Q3 No No 2013:Q4 No No
7 History of Reserve Fund Allocations Biennium General Fund Forecast Deviation (millions) % Forecast Deviation ESF Allocations (millions) $ % $ % RDF Allocations (millions) Reserve Fund Allocation as % of Shortfall $1, % $ % $ % $ % $1, % $1, % $ % $1, % $84 $ % $ % $ $ %
8 Summary of Reserve Fund Activity ( ) Shortfall Totals* Actual Compared to COS Forecast (millions) -$4,308 Reserve Fund Allocations** (millions) $1,413 Reserve Fund Allocations as % of Revenue Shortfall *Shortfall biennia include , , , % ** Includes $182 million allocation in
9 Task Force Items to Determine Related to Rainy Day Fund and Education Stability Fund Fund Size Do funds reflect economic volatility of state? Deposit Rules Are current limits on deposits appropriate? Are sources of deposits adequate? Withdrawal Rules Are limitations on expenditures from fund useful? Is diverting earnings from the Education Stability Fund appropriate? IDENTIFY: current provisions and statutory provisions that may need modification; new provisions that would aid in functioning of funds RECOMMEND: comprehensive package of constitutional or statutory changes or management practices to enhance fund pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
10 Oregon s Economy More Volatile Than 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Nation Oregon economic performance versus United States, Year-over-year growth U.S. Oregon Source: State coincident index, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
11 Oregon s Revenues More Volatile Than Nation Oregon revenue performance versus United States, Year-over-year growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% U.S. Oregon -20% Source: Census State Annual Tax Collections, Adjusted for Tax Policy Changes by NCSL State Tax Action Reports pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
12 Percentage of Biennial Revenues Oregon s Budget Stabilization Funds Education Stability and Rainy Day Funds total balance and caps, % Combined ORDF and ESF Balances Maximum Cap on Balances 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: Pew analysis of Oregon Office of Economic Analysis data Note: does not include General Fund Ending balance pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
13 Finding Adequate Reserve Fund Size Modeling Two Different Recession Scenarios Scenario 1: Average Recession Scenario 2: Severe Recession Revenues fall below normal by a typical amount Revenues take 5 years to return to normal growth levels Need enough reserves to cover all of revenue below normal Revenues fall below normal by a severe amount Revenues take 5 years to return to normal growth levels Need enough reserves to cover all of revenue below normal pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
14 Evaluating Volatility to Analyze Reserve Size Looking at revenue fluctuations, recovery, and correlations 60% Personal income Corporate income and excise Other general income 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Source: Pew Analysis of Oregon Department of Revenue Data pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
15 Percentage of Biennial Revenues Oregon s Budget Stabilization Funds Education Stability and Rainy Day Funds Total Balance and Caps, % 12% Combined ORDF and ESF Balances Needed for Severe Recession Maximum Cap on Balances 10% 8% 6% Needed foraverage Recession 4% 2% 0% Source: Pew analysis of Oregon Office of Economic Analysis data Note: does not include General Fund Ending balance pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
16 Improving Oregon s Deposit Rules Tying Fund Use to Volatility: When is Revenue Above-Normal? 25% Biennial Revenue Growth Average Biennial Growth ( ) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Source: Pew Analysis of Oregon Department of Revenue Data pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
17 Pew Findings and Recommendations Improving Oregon s Management of Volatility Consider above-trend revenue when saving Re-evaluate appropriate trigger level for projected revenue declines for next biennium Current maximum levels for reserves (ORDF and ESF) appear adequate pewtrust s.org/fisc al-he a l th
18 Volatile Revenue Sources (Biennial Revenue in Millions) $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Corporate Income Tax Personal Income Tax From Capital Gains $- Legislative Revenue Office
LRO FORECAST SUMMARY
STATE OF OREGON LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE STATE CAPITOL BUILDING 900 COURT ST. NE RM 143 SALEM, OREGON 97301 PHONE (503) 986-1266 FAX (503) 986-1770 Paul Warner, Legislative Revenue Officer LRO FORECAST
LRO FORECAST SUMMARY
STATE OF OREGON LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE STATE CAPITOL BUILDING 900 COURT ST. NE RM 143 SALEM, OREGON 97301 PHONE (503) 986-1266 FAX (503) 986-1770 Paul Warner, Legislative Revenue Officer LRO FORECAST
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