LRO FORECAST SUMMARY
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1 STATE OF OREGON LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE STATE CAPITOL BUILDING 900 COURT ST. NE RM 143 SALEM, OREGON PHONE (503) FAX (503) Paul Warner, Legislative Revenue Officer LRO FORECAST SUMMARY NEW FACTS SINCE THE LAST FORECAST 1st Qtr st Qtr 2017 Actuals Employment Income ($ billion) Income Tax ($ million) Withholding Payments less Refunds Total Income Tax 1,859,715 1,850,367-9, , , , , NEW FACTS First Quarter personal income tax collections were up $207.7 million (12.9%) from the forecast. First Quarter corporate income tax collections were up $6.0 million (7.9%) from the forecast. Oregon personal income was down $1.4 billion (-0.8%) from the forecast. Oregon employment was down 9,348 jobs (-0.5%) from the forecast. LRO: 05/16/ xlsx
2 Summary Page 2 of 7 CHANGE FROM CLOSE OF SESSION General Fund Resources Close of Session Transfer to , , , , , , , , * , , , , Anticipated Administrative Actions*** Net GF and Lottery Resources 19, , *. *** Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cash flow management, exclusive of internal borrowing. Revenue Source CHANGE SINCE CLOSE OF SESSION income tax revenue is up $307.3 million (2.0%) from the 2015 COS estimate. tax revenue is up $75.7 million (6.9%) from the 2015 COS estimate. General Fund gross revenue is up $483.6 million (2.7%) from the 2015 COS estimate. Net GF and Lottery resources are up $593.2 million (3.0%) from the 2015 COS estimate. Close of Session EFFECT ON 2% KICKER 2% Kicker Threshold Amount +/- Kicker Threshold & 16, , , Corporation* 1, , , * As per the AG, the corporate kicker calculation excludes the minimum tax paid by S-corporations because it is a flat tax. KICKER REFUNDS IMPLIED BY FORECAST PERSONAL: There is a personal kicker of $407.9 million projected for CORPORATE: $75.5 million of corporate tax revenue is projected to be dedicated to K-12 education spending in
3 Summary Page 3 of Transfer to Administrative Actions* Net General Fund Resources * 15, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Net Combined Resources 19, , * Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cash flow management, exclusive of internal borrowing. *. REVENUE CHANGES Projected Net General Fund resources are up $370.2 million (2.0%) from the forecast. Projected Lottery resources are up $3.6 million (0.3%) from the forecast. Projected combined net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $373.7 million (1.9%) from the forecast.
4 Summary Page 4 of 7 EFFECT ON ENDING BALANCE General Fund Current vs. Close of Session Close of Session Transfer to Revenue 17, , Administrative Actions Total Resources 18, , Expenditures Ending Balance Transfer Remaining Balance 17, , ENDING BALANCE The projected ending balance is up $399.5 million (123.1%) from the 2015 Close-of- Session estimate. The projected ending balance is up $375.8 million (108.0%) from the forecast. The is projected to receive $180.7 million following the biennium. General Fund Current vs. Prior Transfer to Revenue 18, , Administrative Actions Total Resources 18, , Expenditures Ending Balance Transfer Remaining Balance 18, ,
5 Summary Page 5 of 7 Beginning Balance Education Stability Fund * Rainy Day General Fund Fund ($ Millions) Reserves Available $179.4 $211.8 $391.1 Deposits $204.4 $170.7 $375.0 Interest $5.3 $6.4 $11.7 Withdrawals $5.3 $0.0 $5.3 Projected Ending Balance Reserve Fund Position $383.8 $388.8 $723.9 $1,496.4 *Excludes funds in the Oregon Growth and the Oregon Resource and Technology Development subaccounts Transfer to Net General Fund Resources Net Combined Resources 17, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
6 Summary Page 6 of Net 19, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Net 21, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
7 Summary Page 7 of Net 23, , , , , , , , , , , , , , Biennial Net Revenue Growth: Total to % 18.8% 28.4% 18.3% to % -13.9% -17.6% 7.7% to % 28.2% 2.8% 21.5% to % -44.4% 97.9% -7.5% to % 52.5% -35.4% 11.4% to % 31.7% 6.4% 22.1% to % -18.9% 10.2% -8.0% to % 20.9% 29.8% 6.8% to % 6.8% -4.1% 13.1% to % 25.0% -12.4% 13.2% to 15.1% 5.3% 24.8% 15.0% to % -11.6% -6.7% 4.9% to % 0.9% 8.0% 11.6% to % 4.3% 6.5% 10.3% to % 4.3% 6.2% 8.7%
LRO FORECAST SUMMARY
STATE OF OREGON LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE STATE CAPITOL BUILDING 900 COURT ST. NE RM 143 SALEM, OREGON 97301 PHONE (503) 986-1266 FAX (503) 986-1770 Paul Warner, Legislative Revenue Officer LRO FORECAST
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