Agency Report Item 16: Department of Corrections Inmate Population

Transcription

1 Agency Report Item 16: Department of Corrections Inmate Population Analyst: Linda Gilbert Request: Acknowledge receipt of a report on Department of Corrections inmate population. Recommendation: Acknowledge receipt of the report. Analysis: During the 2015 legislative session, a budget note was included in the Department of Corrections budget report directing status reports on the female population be presented at each meeting of the interim Joint Committee on Ways and Means during the biennium. There was concern at the time of passing the Department s legislatively adopted budget that the female population was running worryingly close to capacity, and that additional funding might be needed to accommodate sustained population over 1,280 beds. The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) produces a semi-annual Oregon Corrections Population Forecast that provides the Oregon Department of Corrections (DOC) projections of the monthly offender population over a ten-year period. Based on the October 2015 OEA forecast, the estimated inmate population shows DOC can continue housing its female population in the designated women s facility - Coffee Creek Correctional Facility (CCCF) - until March There are 1,353 beds at CCCF for Oregon s female adults in custody. DOC determined a maximum of 1,280 inmates can be safely and effectively managed at CCCF. This number provides sufficient flexibility in bed types to manage frequently changing needs, such as improvement programs, as well as mental health, crisis, infirmary, and segregation. There is additional pressure on CCCF because, unlike men s prisons, female overpopulation has no other prison to use for relief. The following display compares actuals through November 1 and the forecast through 2021 red line - to the 1,280-bed trigger green line - to consider activating additional bed space. Legislative Fiscal Office Interim Joint Committee on Ways and Means November 2015

2 The October forecast shows the population above 1,280 from March through November 2016, but it is never over by more than 12 inmates, and after peaking in March, the forecast continues to decline, not exceeding 1,280 again until the year DOC would then need to activate the Oregon State Penitentiary - Minimum Security Facility (OSPM) for females. Currently there is not sufficient pressure when considering a combination of current and forecast population to require opening OSPM any earlier. In addition, the forecast does not take into account any expected diversion that would result for implementing HB 3503 in January While the women s population does not appear to require action during the current biennium, the October forecast for male inmates varied significantly from the April forecast. Assuming a trigger point of 13,490 male inmates to open additional beds, the October forecast indicates needing additional beds as soon as April This compares to the previous forecast predicting new bed need starting in mid The following display shows the variance between the April 2015 and October 2015 forecasts. Of particular note is that from October 2015 through the end of the biennium, bed demand increases by an average of 146 beds per month. As shown below, after a steep rise, the variance is relatively flat at around 200 beds going forward. The Department has a plan to accommodate the earlier need at the Deer Ridge Correctional Institution. The plan shifts inmates from minimum custody to medium units that have not yet been opened. The minimum custody space is at its 787 inmate capacity, including 130 emergency beds. This move will enable the expected growth to be absorbed at a significantly lower staffing cost than simply opening the medium complex while continuing to operate the minimum. There will, however, be some cost associated with this plan. The Department is refining an estimate and may request funding during the 2016 legislative session. As directed, DOC will report on this issue again in January A new forecast will be issued April 1, The Legislative Fiscal Office recommends acknowledging receipt of the report. Legislative Fiscal Office Interim Joint Committee on Ways and Means November 2015

3 16 Oregon Department of Corrections Ball Request: Report on the status of the female inmate population and provide an update on the male inmate population. Recommendation: Acknowledge receipt of the report. Discussion: The Legislatively Adopted Budget for the Oregon Department of Corrections (DOC) assumes the agency can continue housing its female inmate population in the designated women s facility at Coffee Creek Correctional Facility (CCCF) through the biennium. DOC reports that it is able to effectively and safely manage 1,280 female inmates at CCCF; however, once the population at the facility exceeds 1,280 on a sustained basis, the agency will need to activate the Oregon State Penitentiary minimum security facility. The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) produces semi-annual Oregon Corrections Population Forecasts that provide DOC with projections of monthly offender populations over a 10-year period. At the time of the April 1, 2015 forecast, OEA projected the female inmate population would not exceed 1,280 on a sustained basis until March During the last six months of the biennium, the female inmate population averaged 1,272, which is extremely close to exceeding the threshold for effectively and safely managing the inmate population at CCCF. As a result, DOC was directed (through a budget note) to report to each meeting of the Interim Joint Committee on Ways and Means, through the biennium, on the status of the female inmate population and if deemed necessary, request funding support for the early activation of the Oregon State Penitentiary minimum security facility. Female Inmate Population Since the agency s last report to the Interim Joint Committee on Ways and Means in September, OEA has released its October 2015 forecast for the female inmate population. The updated forecast projects that the female inmate population will reach the 1,280 threshold in March 2016, grow to a high of 1,292 inmates in April 2016, and fall back below 1,280 by November As of November 1, 2015, the actual female inmate population was 1,280, which is equal to what the agency has identified as its threshold for capacity at CCCF. According to the October 2015 forecast, the female population is anticipated to bump up against this threshold, slightly exceed it during 2016, and then slowly decline and remain below the threshold through until early Because the actual female inmate population is not projected to exceed this threshold on a sustained basis, DOC does not recommend early activation of its Oregon State Penitentiary minimum security facility at this time. Male Inmate Population DOC s budget was developed based on the April 2015 Oregon Corrections Population forecast and assumed that DOC would be able to manage its male inmate population within currently operating facilities. The agency has identified its threshold for safely and effectively managing the male population within these facilities at 13,490. The release of the October 2015 Oregon Corrections Population Forecast raised new concerns in that it indicates an upward shift Department of Administrative Services 16-i November 18, 2015

4 in male population exceeding this threshold and where additional capacity may be necessary in the spring of As of November 1, 2015, the actual male inmate population was 13,414, which is 76 inmates below the 13,490 threshold. The October 2015 forecast projects the male inmate population will exceed this threshold in April 2016, reach 13,563 inmates by July 2016 and then fall back below the threshold in November While the projection is that the male inmate level will fall back below the established threshold by November 2016, population levels are only anticipated to remain below the threshold for a few months. In response to the October 2015 forecast, DOC has undergone planning efforts to identify options for housing additional inmates as they arrive into the corrections system. As opposed to opening a new correctional facility, DOC s proposal is to shift all existing inmates at Deer Ridge minimum security facility into the Deer Ridge medium security facility that is currently not operating. The medium facility at Deer Ridge is much larger than the minimum facility and is separated into multiple different housing units. Because of the facility s design, DOC would be able to move all of its existing inmates, staff and resources into the medium facility without initially bringing all of the housing units on line. The shift from the minimum security facility to the medium security facility, if implemented, is projected to cost roughly $2.5 million and would require minimal additional staffing. Additionally, by transitioning into the medium facility, DOC would then have the ability to quickly respond by opening additional housing units at the facility as needed. If additional housing units are opened, DOC would likely need to return to the appropriate legislative body for additional funding. At this time, the agency will continue to closely monitor the female and male inmate populations and will report back to the Interim Joint Committee on Ways and Means in January Department of Administrative Services 16-ii November 18, 2015

5 Oregon Kate Brown, Governor Oregon Department of Corrections Office of the Director 2575 Center Street NE Salem, OR Voice: Fax: The Honorable Richard Devlin, Co-Chair 900 Court Street NE H-178 State Capitol Salem, OR Dear Co-Chairpersons, Please accept the following report detailing information on the female population as outlined in a Budget Note to Senate Bill 5504 (2015), as well as an update on the male population, both of which are based on the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) October 2015 Prison Population Forecast. Background Senate Bill 5504 (2015), the primary biennium appropriation bill for the Oregon Department of Corrections (DOC), contained a Budget Note requesting interim reports on the status of the female population: The Department of Corrections, in coordination with the Office of Economic Analysis, shall provide interim reports to the Legislature on the status of the female population and, if deemed necessary, request funding support for the early activation of the Oregon State Penitentiary Minimum Security Facility. These status reports and potential funding requests will be submitted for review and approval at each meeting of the Interim Joint Ways and Means Committee throughout the biennium. Threshold Methodology The decision whether to open the Oregon State Penitentiary Minimum facility (OSPM) relies on a combination of two variables: 1) the actual female inmate population, and 2) the most current population forecast for the female population, as provided by the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA). Based on the housing capacity for the female population at Coffee Creek Correctional Facility, DOC recommends the activation of OSPM when the female population reaches a sustained 1,280 inmates. As reflected in both the April 2015 and October 2015 OEA Prison Population Forecasts, the total number of anticipated female inmates ebbs and flows throughout the biennium and beyond. If the 1,280 threshold is reached based on actual female inmate counts, yet the forecast calls for a reduction in the population in the near future, the department will recommend refraining from early activation in the hopes that the forecast comes to fruition. On the other hand, if the 1,280

6 The Honorable Richard Devlin, Co-Chair Page 2 threshold has been reached and the forecast anticipates no relief moving forward, early activation will likely be necessary. As the graph below reflects, the female population has exceeded the 1,280 threshold at several times in 2015, but those peaks have not been sustained over time. While the new October 2015 forecast shows the population will exceed the threshold in March 2016, it is forecast to dip below the threshold nine months later. It is important to note the scale: the most the population exceeds the threshold is by 12 women (in March 2016), and this number steadily declines until November 2016 when it drops consistently under the threshold for the remainder of the biennium and beyond. Based on this, DOC can accommodate this short period of growth within existing resources at Coffee Creek Correctional Facility, and OSPM will not need to be activated until March 2020; DOC would need to begin preparing to activate this facility in September 2019 (approximately six months earlier). As detailed in DOC s previous report on the female population, the April 2015 forecast would have triggered the activation of OSPM in March Graph: October 2015 Female Population Forecast Update Male Population For the male population, the October 2015 Prison Population Forecast differs greatly from the April 2015 forecast, calling for an increase in the inmate population that will require the activation of additional beds. Based purely on the April forecast, the male population would not have triggered the activation of the medium facility at Deer Ridge Correctional Institution (DRCI) until July 2019 (the trigger point is 13,490). The October forecast reaches the trigger point much sooner in March In response, DOC has put together a proposal that will accommodate the expected increase in the male population.

7 The Honorable Richard Devlin, Co-Chair Page 3 Graph: November 2015 Male Population Forecast Update Housing Proposal In previous forecast planning, DOC has consistently spoken to the need to open new capacity at DRCI when the trigger point was reached (at a cost of approximately $42M to open and fully operate the Deer Ridge medium facility). In an effort to minimize the potential impact to the Justice Reinvestment efforts of HB 3194 (2013), the department recently reassessed potential options that could improve flexibility while attempting to minimize cost. In that vein, DOC proposes shifting all of the inmates from the Deer Ridge minimum facility into the medium facility, and operating that facility as a minimum. It is important to note that this is not the opening of a prison it is a shifting of inmates from one side of a campus to the other literally, walking them across the parking lot to the medium facility, which has greater capacity. This allows for a phased-in approach to growth, rather than a singular event with a $42M impact. The chronology and cost for this proposal is as follows.

8 The Honorable Richard Devlin, Co-Chair Page 4 DRCI Shift (Phase 1) Shifting all minimum inmates to medium. o $2.5 million, which covers startup costs, including systems repair, preparation, and updating (door control, cameras, software for control centers, etc.); replacing things that have been used to supplement needs in other institutions (such as inmate storage bins); purchasing new equipment (some staff computers, desks, etc.); and hiring some security staff (4.46 FTE). DRCI Medium: Additional 200 Beds (Phase 2) The October forecast estimates the need for additional beds in the first quarter of As mentioned above, the shift from the minimum to the medium provides the capability to open additional beds. The department estimates the cost of adding the next incremental 200 beds to be: o $7 million, the majority of which is for new staff (counselors, medical, food services, and security staff). The potential to accommodate additional beds beyond 200 still exists in the medium (100+ beds), but they are not anticipated to be needed in based on the October 2015 forecast. If they do become necessary, the additional cost will need to be determined. Please note that to keep the minimum facility operational AND open/operate the medium facility would cost an estimated $42 million, so this proposal provides significant financial relief over that original option by providing multiple phases that push some cost into future biennia. A critical factor in determining the best approach is the department s use of temporary and emergency beds. Over the past several biennia, the department has been managing its population with an increasing use of temporary and emergency beds. In fact, today there are 988 temporary beds in use. The department is simply at capacity, and has no more flexibility with these beds. Given this, the shift from Deer Ridge minimum to medium is the best option. Long-Term Forecast In addition to the increase in the short-term, the October forecast moves Junction City slightly into the 10-year forecast window. According to the forecast, Junction City would need to open in September It takes five years to construct a new facility; this means, construction would need to begin in Given this, DOC would need to ask for funding for Junction City during the next biennium. However, with a renewed focus and concentration on how the public safety community can best work at the local level to hold offenders accountable and reduce recidivism, there is a growing momentum to change this collective trajectory. Together, our hope is that future forecasts based on the work happening at the local level will place Junction City back outside the 10-year window.

9 The Honorable Richard Devlin, Co-Chair Page 5 As the department monitors the actual prison population, it will provide a subsequent report to the Interim Join Committee on Ways and Means during January Legislative Days. Sincerely, Colette S. Peters Director cc: George Naughton, DAS Chief Financial Officer Dustin Ball, DAS CFO Policy and Budget Analyst Ken Rocco, Legislative Fiscal Officer Linda Gilbert, LFO Principal Legislative Analyst Steve Robbins, DOC Chief Financial Officer Elizabeth Craig, DOC Communications Administrator