Economic Appraisal Objectives

Transcription

1 Network Screening HSM Vol. 1 (Part B) Chapters 7 & 8 MODULE 10. ECONOMIC APPRAISAL AND PRIORITIZATION Roadway Safety Management Process Diagnosis and Countermeasure Selection Economic Appraisal and Prioritization Safety Effectiveness Evaluation Learning Outcomes Economic Appraisal Overview project benefits and costs Economic evaluation methods Non-monetary considerations Prioritization Methods Applications Prioritization Prioritization methods Ranking methods Optimization methods Prioritization results Prioritization application Economic Appraisal Objectives Determine if a project is economically justified Identify projects with the greatest value for the investment HSM Training Module 10 1

2 Economic Appraisal Process Effectiveness Analysis Quantify Crash Reduction Benefit Analysis Data Needs Estimated change in crashes by severity Monetary value of crashes by severity Service life and countermeasure cost Discount rate Societal Crash Estimates by Crash Severity National Safety Council Values Fatality - $1,290,000 Disabling Injury $ 68,000 Property damage Only $3, HSM Training Module 10 2

3 Economic Appraisal Inputs Example Countermeasure costs Roundabout construction (30 yr service life) Protected left-turn (10 yr service life) Other inputs 4% discount rate 2% annual traffic increase Countermeasure Information Countermeasure 1 Install a Single-lane Countermeasure 2 Protected Left-turn Signal Roundabout Service Life 30 Years Service Life 10 Years Annual Traffic Annual Traffic Growth 2.0% Growth 2.0% Discount Rate 4.0% Discount Rate 4.0% Project $1,500,000 Project $100,000 CMF CMF Total Crashes 0.52 Total Crashes 0.94 Fatal and Injury Fatal and Crashes 0.51 Injury Crashes Calculate Economic Analysis Convert Countermeasure Benefit to Monetary Value Calendar Year N Pred(FI) FI Crash Annual Monetary Value of Crash Reduction Countermeasure 1: Roundabout AM y(fi) N Pred(PDO) PDO Crash AM y(pdo) AM y(tot) $158,200 $159, $7,400 $12,960 $172, $158,200 $164, $7,400 $13,282 $177, $158,200 $168, $7,400 $13,611 $181, $158,200 $172, $7,400 $13,949 $186, $158,200 $177, $7,400 $14,294 $191, $158,200 $182, $7,400 $14,649 $196, $158,200 $186, $7,400 $15,012 $201, $158,200 $191, $7,400 $15,384 $207, $158,200 $197, $7,400 $15,766 $212, $158,200 $202, $7,400 $16,156 $218,472 : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : $158,200 $343, $7,400 $26,359 $369, Calculate Benefits Present Value Based on Annual Benefit Countermeasures 30 Year Service Life Convert Non-Uniform Annual Benefit to Present Value: (P/F,i,y) = (1+i)(-y) (Equation 7-2) where i is the discount rate and y is the year in the service life of the countermeasure HSM Training Module 10 3

4 Present Monetary Value of Benefits for Crash Reduction Countermeasure 1: Roundabout Present Value (PVB) 2005 $172, $172, $177, $170, $181, $168, $186, $166, $191, $163, $196, $161, $201, $159, $207, $157, $212, $155, $218, $153,495 : : : : : : : : 2034 $386, $118,597 Total $4,316,570 Calendar Year AM y(tot) (P/F,i,y) Benefit- Analysis Net Present Value (NPV) NPV = (Present Value of Benefits) (Present Value of Project s) Benefit- Ratio (BCR) BCR = (Present Value of Benefits)/(Present Value of Project s) Present Value of Crash Reductions Benefits - Intersection 2 Present Value of Countermeasure Countermeasure Present Value ($) Roundabout $4.32 M Countermeasures Initial Present Value Initial Second 10- year's Present Value for Second 10-year s Third 10-year's Present Value for Third 10-year s Total (PVC) Protected left turn Red light Camera Interchange $0.64 M $0.38 M $ 2.46 M Roundabout $1.5 $1.5 $1,500,000 Protected Left-turn Signal $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.068 $0.1 $0.046 $213,195 Red-lightrunning Camera $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.068 $0.1 $0.046 $213,195 Install Interchange $15 $15 $15,000, HSM Training Module 10 4

5 Benefits s Comparison Method 1: Net Present Value Also referred to as net present worth If NPV >0, then the individual project is economically justified Benefits s Comparison Method 2: Benefit- Ratio (BCR) If BCR >1.0, the project is economically justified For countermeasure 1: Roundabout NPV $4,316,570 $1,500,000 = $2,816, For countermeasure 1: Roundabout BCR $4,316,570 / $1,500,000 = Net Present Value and Benefit- Ratio Results - Intersection 2 Countermeasure NPV ($) BCR Roundabout $2.82 M Effectiveness Index -Effectiveness Index = (Present Value of Project s) / (Estimated Average Annual Crash Reduction) Protected left turn $0.43 M 3.01 Crash reductions and project costs must apply to the same time period Method does not consider crash severities HSM Training Module 10 5

6 Benefits s Comparison Method 3: -Effectiveness Analysis Countermeasure cost-effective analysis is expressed as annual cost per crash reduced [equation 7-5, p. 7-10, Vol. 1 (Part B) of the HSM]. For countermeasure 1: Roundabout -effectiveness Index = $1,500,000/ = $12, Effectiveness Index Intersection 2 Countermeasure Per Crash Reduced Roundabout $12,277 Protected left turn $14, MI Time of Return (TOR) Estimate impact of treatment benefits Estimate cost of treatment Determine number of years to recover investment Additional Considerations Influence Decisions Non-monetary* Public perceptions Air Pollution Energy Consumption Other monetary Road user costs (delay, operating costs) Maintenance and operations s to achieve environmental standards s to achieve ecological protection *Not every benefit or cost can be translated to monetary terms HSM Training Module 10 6

7 Other Countermeasure Implementation Issues Interchange construction Roundabout construction Protected left-turn Red-light cameras R/W, capital cost, NEPA issues, access to businesses change, traffic and other impacts during construction; public acceptance Increased delays and potential queues (effects on adjacent driveways) Implementation and maintenance costs, public perceptions HSM Effectiveness Measures to Consider # total crashes reduced # fatal and incapacitating injury crashes reduced # fatal and injury crashes reduced -effectiveness index Project costs Economic Rating Criteria Greatest $ Return in Benefits for Each $1.00 of Public Funds Invested (i.e. costs) HSM Economic Prioritization Methods Total costs (present value of benefits must be equal) Net present value (present value of costs must be equal) Benefit-cost ratio (for independent alternatives) Incremental benefit-cost analysis (mutually exclusive alternatives) Optimization methods Monetary value of project benefits HSM Training Module 10 7

8 Ranking with Net Present Value Countermeasure Net Present Value Rank ($) Roundabout $2.82 M 1 Protected leftturn $0.43 M 2 Benefit Ranking for One Site Countermeasure BCR Rank Roundabout Protected leftturn NPV Ranking does not consider initial costs and should generally be applied to alternatives with equal costs Effectiveness Index at One Site Countermeasure Per Crash Rank Reduced Roundabout $12,277 1 Protected leftturn $14,280 2 Optimization Methods Optimization methods identify a project set that will maximize benefits within a fixed budget and other constraints. Linear programming Integer programming Dynamic programming -effectiveness ranking does not consider crash severities HSM Training Module 10 8

9 Multi-Objective Resource Allocation Alternative C Criterion Performance Measured Weight Criterion Alternative B Measures Value Score Criterion Performance Measured Weight Criterion Alternative Affordability A Measures Value 5 X 25Score = 125 Criterion Performance Measured C Weight Criterion 3 X 3 Affordability Economic 4 X 25 = 100 Measures Value 3 X Score 40 = 1205 Development C 3 X 3 Economic Affordability 4 X Score for Alternative 5 A Reduce 6 25X = Development = X 35 = 70 Congestion C Score 3 X for Alternative 3 A Improve Reduce 7 X9 40 X = = 5 Safety 315 Congestion Score Score for for Alternative Alternative C A 315 Score 6 X for Alternative 35 = B Reduce Congestion Score for Alternative A Roadway Safety Management Process Overview Network Screening Diagnosis and Countermeasure Selection Economic Appraisal and Prioritization Safety Effectiveness Evaluation Summary Summary MODULE 10. ECONOMIC APPRAISAL AND PRIORITIZATION HSM Training Module 10 9