APPENDICES(U) LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST IETNESDA MD 9 MOOR ET AL. JAN 86 LMI-ML51352 MDS3-65-C-8139 UNCLSSIFIED F/O5/3 ML

Transcription

1 ADI FORT DRUM PRELIINRY FISCL IIWfT ANAYSIS: TECHICL V2 APPENDICES(U) LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INST IETNESDA MD 9 MOOR ET AL. JAN 86 LMIML51352 MDS365C8139 UNCLSSIFIED F/O5/3 ML

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4 FORT DRUM PREIMI3NARY FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS TECHNICAL APPENDICES Jnury 1986 Willim B. Moore Dvi"l D. Metclf LJIIL ELECTE IMPAT NAL I A Apw". im pub~iwlso D~bis u U198bd Prepred pursunt to Deprtment of Defense Contrct MDA9W385C0139 (Tsk ML513). The views, opinions, nd findings contined in this report re those of the uthors nd should not be construed s n officil Deprtment of Defense position, policy, or decision, unless so designted by other officil documenttion. Except for use for Government purposes, permission to quote from or reproduce portions of this document must be obtined from the Logistics Mngement Institute. LOGISTICS MANAGEMENT INSTrriUTE 6400 Goldsboro Rod Bethesd, Mrylnd

5 PREFACE The technicl ppendices to the Fort Drum Preliminry Fiscl Impct Anlysis (PFIA) contin detiled descriptions of the FIA model s well s the complete model outputs. The Fort Drum PFIA hs summry type descriptions of the vrious modules nd describes the workings of the model in generl terms tht re pproprite for the generl public. The technicl ppendices, however, re more specific nd re intended to nswer questions tht would be rised by more technicl review of the PFIA. Also included in the technicl ppendices re the complete FIA model outputs for the cities, counties, towns, villges, nd school districts tht were nlyzed in the PFIA s well s the model output for New York Stte. These outputs differ from those presented in the PFIA in tht the PFIA outputs re summries nd do not show the brekout of revenues, expenditures, etc., wheres the output in the technicl ppendices hve detiled enumertion of fiscl ctegories. Questions which go beyond the level of detil presented in this volume should be ddressed to the Fort Drum Steering Council.,*,*.o.... Accesion For NTIS OTIC CRA&I TAB U; innoi,. iced Justificlloll ~ ~ , By. "ia ". Avijfbility Codes A.

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS: PAGE PREFACE ii CHAPTER 1. ""THE_ VAMODEL I1 PConstruction Modulen Mo..l Militry Popultion Module. s.i.n Federl Civilin Module Lbor Mrket Module Construction Sector Service Sector Indirect Effects Modulq Indirect Slries nd Production Induced Slries nd Production Employment Impcts Popultion Distribution Modulej M1LODEL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES AND THE TREATMENT OF JURISDICTION SHARES Generl Forecsting Technique) Revenue Forecsting Expenditure Forecsting) Cpitl Forecsting.,.0'w4& Jurisdiction Shres * FIMODEL OUTPUTS APPENDIX Interprettion of Model Outputs; * 3 1 A. DEFINITIONS OF JURISDICTION CHARACTERISTICS B. RATING SCALES FOR JURISDICTION CHARACTERISTICS, C. DEFINITION OF TERMS USED IN FIA MODEL OUTPUTS, D. LOCAL GOVERNMENT FIA MODEL OUTPUTS) I

7 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) APPENDIX E. SCHOOL DISTRICT FIA MODEL OUTPUTS F. NEW YORK STATE FIA MODEL OUTPUTS. ~.% Accestf on NTIS CRA& "" DTC U1nnounced "TAB:. ' justilictio. " 9 / " Codes A,vii nd I O iv

8 1. THE FIA MODEL Figure 11 shows the nine mjor tsks tht constitute Fiscl Impct Anlysis (FIA) nd the sequence in which they must be completed. The FIA process begins with the estblishment of locl orgniztion, progresses through dt collection to nlysis, nd culmintes in publiction of the Preliminry FIA. The FIA nlysis technique is the methodology used to ccomplish the tsks beginning fter the estblishment of locl orgniztion nd ending with the identifiction of potentil growthrelted problems. It is the mjor tool for performing the nlysis. FIGURE 11. FIA MODEL AND MODULES ARMY INPUTS FEDERL 10ILTASIY LOCAL INPUTS 0 s l.wic* Lmes POWilOU 0l8 CALf'l NEW ANI FOONIECM, IL9,A 04 OIF HW 0 F:CL MPAT NFIA VO OOL DSTRCTS micocml Epicr AslcIed S re ost ss rcppropvrte bossi lin developing the Fort Drum FIA, the lrge mount of dt nd the need for updting the results necessitted the use of computerbsed pproch. A microcomputer ws selected s the most pproprite hrdwre becuse of its reltively low cost nd becuse with it, offtheshelf softwre could be used nd 4.4'

9 thereby hold the monitoring resource requirements to minimum while still providing sufficient computing nd nlysis cpbilities. The pproch ws to estblish n nlyticl frmework the FIA model tht could be pplied to ech jurisdiction. The FIA model hs three segments: one for politicl jurisdictions towns, villges, cities, nd counties; one for school districts; nd the third for New York Stte. (The outputs of these three segments re described in Appendices D, E, nd F, respectively.) Although the three segments function similrly, they hve some differences, the most noticeble of which is the ctegoriztion of revenues nd expenditures. School districts, for exmple, hve different revenue sources nd types of expenditures thn do politicl jurisdictions. Additionlly, perstudent fctors re frequently used in the school district model wheres per cpit fctors re used for the politicl jurisdictions. In the New York..... Stte segment, only certin ctegories of revenues nd expenditures re ffected nd '"1 only these re shown, thus mking the model output much shorter. All three FIA model segments re mintined on microcomputer nd re supported by six modules. The six modules provide input clcultions to the FIA model. Three modules re bsed on Army inputs nd three on locl inputs. The Army provides informtion for construction, militry popultion, nd Federl civilin modules; the locl *jurisdictions provide informtion for the lbor mrket, indirect effects, nd popultion distribution modules. These modules re key determinnts of growth impcts, nd chnges to ny of them cn be rippled through the model to provide..,' nlytic responses to progrm ltertions or scenrio plnning chnges. CONSTRUCTION MODULE The construction module clcultes the impcts tht will be generted by the * onbse construction progrm tht will support the expnsion of Fort Drum. The module subdivides ech project tht is progrmmed for Fort Drum into its 12

10 * w.~~ ~~ ~...~, % component prts: lbor costs, mteril costs, overhed nd profit, nd government dministrtion costs. These component prts re determined by clssifying every project into one of nine ctegories: community support, dministrtion, wrehouse/industril, brrcks, mintennce fcility, sewge tretment, electricl distribution, rods, or wter nd sewer distribution. Ech of these nine ctegories is subdivided into lbor, mteril, nd overhed nd profit by selecting representtive structures for ech ctegory nd then identifying the lbor nd mteril components for ech mjor work division such s foundtion, exterior closure, etc. The R. S. Mens cost dt bse is the primry source of informtion for cost brekdowns. Overhed nd profit re then determined by tking the verge vlues s reported in the R. S. Mens dt bse. The government supervision nd dministrtion is clculted t 5.5 percent of the progrmmed mount. After project's cost is divided into its component prts, n ssumption bout the durtion of the contrct hs to be mde. For Fort Drum construction, we ssumed tht 40 percent of construction contrct mount would be expended during.:.'. the first yer nd the reminder during the second yer. Tht split ws bsed upon the type of work plnned, the norml wrd time for contrcts, nd the Fort Drum construction seson. The cost components re then summrized by yer for the totl construction progrm. The number of construction workers required to support the construction.. progrm is determined by estblishing construction worker yerly cost nd then dividing it into the totl lbor costs expected in the yer. The construction worker yerly wge is determined by tking the verge dily rte for four common skills found on most construction jobs nd extrpolting it into yerly wge. For Fort Drum, the four skills considered were lborers, cement finishers, plumbers, nd crpenters. The verge dily wge for these trdes is $215. A number of costs in 13

11 ddition to the dily wge go into the cost of construction worker, nd they re listed with their percentge of the totl lbor cost in Tble 11. TABLE 11. BREAKDOWN OF CONSTRUCTION LABOR COSTS COST COMPONENT PERCENT OF TOTAL LABOR COST Workers Compenstion 8.1 Unemployment Insurnce 5.5 FICA 7.0 Builders Risk 0.38 Public Libility Security 0.80 Negotited Fringe Benefits vries Subcontrctor Overhed nd Profit 20 The verge dily construction lbor rte for the Fort Drum re is the 30 cities rte from the R. S. Mens dt bse djusted to the locl re. The index for Syrcuse shows the djusted verge dily rte to be $206, rte tht ssumes 100 percent of the work is done by subcontrctors. Tht percentge is not ''.., resonble; it is more likely tht subcontrctors would perform 70 percent of the work, nd then the dily rte would be $193 nd the yerly rte $50,180. This nnul rte divided into the expected yerly lbor cost totl gives the number of construction workers to be required to support the onbse construction. The ctul slry for construction worker is determined by tking the R. S. Mens 30city verge wge for skilled workers nd lborers nd developing t.w composite rte. The two rtes were weighted (60 percent skilled nd 40 percent unskilled) nd composite rte of $17.74 per hour ws clculted. Tht rte ]

12 contins fringe benefits estimted to verge pproximtely 30 percent of the hourly rte. After djusting for fringe benefits nd loction, the hourly rte becomes $13.05, which equtes to yerly (full time) wge of $27,144. The construction module cretes n extrct file tht is titled CONDATA. The summrized informtion from the construction module is used to drive clcultions in the FIAmodel. MILITARY POPULATION MODULE The militry popultion module tbultes popultion, grdes, demogrphic brekouts, nd slries for militry personnel who come to Fort Drum s result of the expnsion. The primry input to this module is the Army's nticipted end strength, which gives the number of personnel by grde who will be sttioned t Fort Drum. The number of mrried personnel nd their dependents is determined by pplying Armysupplied demogrphic dt for units similr to those expected t Fort Drum to the nticipted end strength. The demogrphic dt provides the number of mrried, the dependents, nd the expected ge distribution of dependents. The number of mrried nd single dependents nd the totl number re summrized by yer in the module. The slries tht the militry nd their dependents will bring into the re re clculted by using the 1985 Army py nd llownce tbles. An verge time in grde is ssumed for ech grde, nd the corresponding slry nd llownces re multiplied by the number of persons within tht grde. Specil llownces for mrried soldiers re considered in this clcultion. The slries by yer nd by type, single or mrried, re summrized. The summrized dt on the new militry popultion nd its ccompnying slry re contined in n extrct file clled ILPOP. This file is n input to the... FIA module nd is used in vrious clcultions in the model

13 S6. FEDERAL CIVILIAN MODULE The Federl civilin module clcultes the totl Federl civilin popultion K nd its ssocited slry by yer. The primry input to this module is the Army's expected civilin personnel yerly end strength, which gives the distribution of Federl civilin workers by grde. The popultion ssocited with Federl civilin jobs is determined by pplying ntionl demogrphic fctors to the number of new jobs. By ssuming tht the Federl civilin work force will be representtive of ntionl verges for fctors such s fmily size, number mrried, etc., the size nd mkeup of the new popultion ssocited with the Federl civilin jobs cn be clculted nd summrized by yer. The slries ssocited with the new Federl civilin jobs re clculted by using the 1985 slry tbles for Federl civilins nd ssuming n verge seniority for ech py grde. The number of new jobs in tht grde is then multiplied by the slry rte to determine the new slries generted within tht py grde. The module summrizes the slry dt to totls of new slries by yer. An extrct file titled FEDCIV tht contins ll of the summrized informtion, is creted by the module. The summry consists of dt detiling the number of single job holders, the number of mrried job holders, the number of dependents, nd the ssocited slries. The file is n input to the FIA model nd is used in vrious clcultions withtn the model. LABOR MARKET MODULE The lbor mrket module nlyzes the supply nd demnd for lbor in the impct re nd provides n ssessment of ny supply/demnd imblnces. The module ssesses the blnce between supply nd demnd in the lbor mrket t the beginning of the project nd identifies the new demnd for ech yer of the project. In the Fort Drum nlysis, the lbor mrket ws seprted into two sectors, 16 bu S '4.':...

14 construction nd service industries nd ech sector ws exmined seprtely to determine the nticipted effect of the expnsion. Construction Sector The construction lbor supply ws estimted by nlyzing weekly nd dily commuting res surrounding Fort Drum. Dily commuters were defined s those construction workers tht live within 2 hours of Fort Drum; weekly commuters. were defined s the reminder of the construction work force within ninecounty region surrounding Fort Drum. New York Stte construction employment dt for the ninecounty region indictes tht bse level of pproximtely 15,000 construction workers is normlly supplied to the region. However, during recent pek surges, the region hs exhibited the cpbility of supplying s mny s 20,000 construction workers with miniml popultion chnges. Additionlly, mjor,..n construction project is being phsed down t the Nine Mile Two nucler power plnt, which will relese 500 to 1000 construction workers to the mrket. The construction lbor supply in the re surrounding Fort Drum ppers cpble of providing 2,000 construction workers to meet the onbse needs. This ssumes tht no other lrge project is strted in the region tht would siphon off lbor supply. The demnd for construction workers in the totl impct re is determined by dding the requirements for onbse construction with those for privte sector construction. (Privte sector construction demnd ccounts for construction to support secondry growth, new offbse housing, etc.) Privte sector requirements re determined by compring the construction worker demnd clcultions from the indirect effects module with seprtely clculted I% construction worker demnd nd using the lrger of the two clcultions s the totl impct re demnd. The seprtely clculted demnd consists of n estimte of the number of construction workers needed to support indirect growth (bsed on the 17 i:

15 reltionship between incresed sles txes nd construction) dded to the number of workers required to support the new home construction spred over 5yer period (1985 to 1990). The inmigrtion tht would be cused by the onbse nd privte sector construction cn be estimted by exmining the supply nd demnd reltionships in the construction mrket. It is not determined simply by subtrcting supply nd demnd. Despite the existence of lrge supply of construction workers, some workers will move to the re to fill construction worker jobs. For the Fort Drum expnsion, this minimum level of inmigrtion is estimted to be 10 percent of the totl demnd. These persons will be supervisory personnel nd persons with key construction skills. There will be some phsing in nd out of these jobs, which is ccounted for in the FIA model. Service Sector The service sector lbor supply consists of locl lbor, dependents, nd currently unemployed service sector workers. Locl lbor is defined s tht portion of the locl service sector lbor force tht is currently employed outside the region (dily commuter) but will elect to work in the region given the opportunity. We estimte tht 1 percent of the 1985 service industry work force for the tricounty re of 30,300 flls in this ctegory. The dependents of inmigrting job holders re lso significnt source of lbor for the service sector. This is prticulrly true of the militry dependents who by virtue of the length of their nticipted sty re normlly very interested in this type of employment. The norml prticiption of militry spouses in the civilin work force is 60 percent. For the Fort Drum nlysis, we ssumed tht only 48 percent of the militry spouses will seek nd find employment. This lower figure ws used to ensure tht the positive effect of the militry spouses ws not overstted.. Dependents of inmigrting civilins will lso serve s source of lbor. We estimte J *'

16 tht 40 percent of the civilin spouses will seek nd find employment. The number of service sector workers vilble from inmigrting spouses is estimted in the lbor module nd is clculted on dynmic bsis in the FIA model. We ssume tht tht unemployment in the tricounty re will decrese s result of the Fort Drum expnsion. In 1985, 638 people from the service industries were unemployed. We estimte tht 60 percent of these unemployed workers will become employed s result of the Fort Drum expnsion nd constitute { prt of the existing service sector lbor supply. The demnd for service industry workers is generted by the indirect nd induced service sector jobs nd the new direct service sector jobs needed to support Fort Drum. (Induced service sector jobs re those jobs creted by slries ssocited with the direct nd indirect impct.) The number of indirect nd induced jobs is estimted by the indirect effects module. The number of new Federl civilin jobs to support Fort Drum is determined in the Federl civilin module. In determining how mny of the new jobs in the Fort Drum re will be filled by the existing work force (including dependents), we ssumed tht Federl civilin jobs in the GS7 py grde nd bove would be tken by inmigrnts (not dependents) nd those personnel would be prt of the new popultion of the re. We lso ssumed tht 5 percent of the service sector jobs would be tken by inmigrnts regrdless of the supply of workers. The 5 percent represents mngeril personnel nd criticl skills tht cnnot be found in the re. The inmigrtion expected in the service sector is estimted in the lbor module nd is clculted on dynmic bsis in the FIA model. INDIRECT EFFECTS MODULE The indirect effects module is regionl inputoutput nlysis tht tkes dt from other modules nd estimtes the indirect nd induced effects cused by the Fort Drum expnsion project. This module reflects the chrcteristics of the tricounty economy nd the economic chnges ssocited with the expnsion. 19 *...,..*

17 Six ctegories of direct impcts re inputs to the indirect effects module. They re the locl contrct expenditures by the bse, the bse commissry, nonpproprited fund services, the bse exchnge, bse construction, nd bse personnel wges nd slries. The expected chnges in these six ctegories re determined by combintion of informtion from the previously described modules nd dt provided by the Army. Indirect Slries nd Production The indirect effects module estimtes the indirect production impcts of the Fort Drum project through n inputoutput pproch. Conceptully, the input structure of ech industry for which direct production impct is estimted is used to estimte firstorder indirect production requirements. The input structures of these indirect supplying industries re then used to estimte secondorder indirect impcts nd so on. Actully, ll indirect impcts re estimted simultneously using the inverse of the difference between n identity mtrix nd mtrix of industry input coefficients. Indirect slry impcts re then estimted bsed on ntionl lbor compenstion nd production estimtes for ech industry. To distribute the indirect impcts by region, they re first seprted into firstorder indirect nd ll other indirect. Firstorder indirect service sector impcts,. re llocted to the immedite region of influence (RO). Firstorder indirect nonservice sector impcts re distributed to the ROI, the stte (excluding the ROI), or to other sttes bsed on loction quotients. This process is better described by exmple. If nonservice industry ccounts for 5 percent of the totl production in,: the ROI nd 10 percent of totl production in the stte, then hlf of the impct (5 percent divided by 10 percent) is llocted to the ROI. If the industry ccounts for NZ. less thn 10 percent of the totl production in the region surrounding the stte, then,., ll remining impct (50 percent of the totl impct) is distributed to the stte. If, however, the industry ccounts for, sy, 12 percent of the totl production in the ON, 110 ḣ%%.

18 region, then 83.3 percent (10 percent divided by 12 percent) of the remining impct, or 41.7 percent of the totl impct, is llocted to the stte surrounding the ROI. The remining firstorder indirect impct (8.3 percent in the bove exmple ) is llocted to the region comprised by ll other sttes. Remining indirect impcts re llocted to the different regions bsed on simple shres. If, for exmple, the ROI ccounts for 2 percent of totl ntionl production by given nonservice industry, then 2 percent of the "other" indirect impct is llocted to the ROI. If the stte tht includes the ROI ccounts for 4 percent of the ntionl production, then 2 percent (i.e., 4 percent minus 2 percent) is llocted to the stte excluding the ROI. The remining 96 percent is llocted to C. the region comprised of ll other sttes. Induced Slries nd Production Induced impcts result from the consumption of expenditures from the slries ssocited with the direct nd indirect impcts. Induced impcts in turn produce more induced impcts, s the expenditure of slries produces still more.. slries. This prt of the methodology begins by summing ll direct nd indirect wges nd slries within ech region nd then converting them into estimtes of personl consumption expenditures. The ntionl rtio of totl personl..*', consumption expenditures to totl personl income is used for this purpose. The djusted wge nd slry estimtes re then distributed to the industry level bsed on the industry distribution of totl personl consumption expenditures ntionlly. A tble of inputoutput coefficients is then used to estimte firstorder nd totl indirect requirements to support the personl consumption expenditures, nd the estimtes re then regionlized., Direct nd firstorder indirect personl consumption expenditures for, services re llocted to the region in which the income is erned. For nonservice sectors, the direct nd firstorder indirect estimtes for expenditures ginst income e

19 erned in ech region re llocted on the bsis of loction quotients s described erlier. The remining indirect impcts re llocted to regions bsed on ech region's shre of ntionl production by industry. The dditionl slries generted s result of these induced impcts on production re then estimted using ntionl rtios of lbor compenstion to production for ech industry. These estimtes serve s the strting point for the next itertion for estimting induced impcts. The itertions continue until the increment on totl induced output is less thn 1 percent. In the solution procedure for the Fort Drum project, six itertions were required. Employment Imvcts Employment impcts re estimted fter indirect nd induced production hs been estimted for ech region nd industry. The number of direct employees is generted by the Federl civilin, construction, militry popultion, nd lbor modules. Ntionl rtios of employment to production re used to estimte the employment for ll other ctegories of indirect nd induced effects. The estimtes of indirect nd induced employment re then summed to rrive t the estimtes of totl employment impcts. POPULATION DISTRIBUTION MODULE The popultion distribution module forecsts where the new popultion of towns, villges, nd cities will live. Seventeen chrcteristics were used initilly to develop distribution fctors (see Tble 12). The reltive importnce of ech chrcteristic ws determined by committees of locl residents utilizing pirwise decisionmking pproch. The pproch employs commercil softwre pckge tht prompts users for comprison decisions,,.4. % s well s for reltive degrees of difference. The determintion of reltive importnce of the chrcteristics, referred to s weighting, ws done number of times by different committees to verify results nd ensure tht pproprite. * 112

20 TABLE 12. TOWN AND VILLAGE CHARACTERISTICS Public Wter System Rurl Well Public Sewge System Rurl Septic Tnk System :: School Cpcity Zoning Avilble Utilities Housing Costs School Qulity Txes nd Fees Avilbility of Suitble Residentil Lnd Rods Locl Support for Growth Trvel Time to Fort Drum Avilble Public nd Commercil Services Qulity of Life/Environment Utility Costs NOTE: The definitions of these chrcteristics re presented in Appendix A. weightings were being derived. The weighting committees were mde up of mixture of locl residents. New home buyers were represented s were locl housing uthorities, plnners, rel estte gents, developers, nd public officils. Rtings for ech chrcteristic were developed for every town, villge, nd city in the tricounty re by subcommittee of the Lnd Use Tsk Force of the Fort Drum Steering Council. The subcommittee used the rting scles presented in Appendix B to give ech jurisdiction score rnging from 0 to 20. The initil list of 17 chrcteristics ws shortened to four by eliminting chrcteristics tht were weighted very low nd chrcteristics tht chnged very little from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, s evidenced by low stndrd devitions. The remining four chrcteristics exhibited significnt vrince mong jurisdictions nd were key determiners of loctions tht developers nd home buyers would prefer. In order of importnce, the four re vilbility of public wter system, trvel time to Fort Drum, vilbility of public sewge system, nd the vilbility of commercil services. The popultion distribution fctor is determined by 113

21 summing the jurisdiction's rting for ech chrcteristic nd dividing it by the totl of ll jurisdictions' rtings. The resultnt fctor cn be thought of s the probbility of person new to the re living in tht jurisdiction. In ddition to these four chrcteristics, it is necessry to consider the number of housing units the Army intends to build on Fort Drum, the plnned Section 801 housing, the existing housing, nd the plnned housing developments. The existing nd plnned housing is n importnt prt of the nlysis since it is the "known" of the popultion distribution. The limited mount of Army housing mens tht onbse units will be occupied t virtully 100 percent of cpcity. Tht is lso true of Section 801 housing since mrried soldiers will be ssigned to those units nd will forfeit their housing llownce if they refuse them. The existing vcnt housing will lso be occupied but t something less thn 100 percent. The occupncy rte for existing vcnt housing ws estblished by ssuming 100 percent occupncy for nerby loctions within 10 minutes drive from Fort Drum nd then determining other occupncy rtes using the estblished trvel time from Fort Drum to the unit in question s weighting fctor. This pproch resulted in units distnt from Fort Drum being occupied t 30 percent or less while units nerby were ssumed to be occupied t much higher rtes. The ctul distribution of the popultion is clculted in threephse process by the model. The first phse is n ccounting of ll existing nd plnned housing nd the rte t which it is ssumed to be occupied by new residents. In the second phse, the remining popultion (initil minus those in existing nd plnned housing) is ssigned to jurisdictions bsed on popultion distribution fctor. The portion of the remining popultion tht is expected to settle in jurisdiction is forecst by multiplying the popultion distribution fctor (probbility) by the totl number of unssigned people. In certin cses, jurisdiction my not be cpble of bsorbing the new growth forecst in the first two phses. Tht problem cn be 114 s.,,2.

22 remedied by use of n bsolute limit on growth. The growth limit is n override vlue tht limits the growth to predetermined vlue. No growth limits were reched in the popultion distribution for the preliminry fiscl impct nlysis of the Fort Drum re. The sum of the two phses, fter djustment for bsolute growth limits, is the forecst popultion increse for the jurisdiction. The popultion distribution module requires continul updting if the ccurcy of the distribution is to be mintined. Chnges in the Army's nd developers' plns cn chnge the distribution significntly. The distribution of the new popultion is w the key determinnt of nticipted impcts nd should be closely monitored *,*. :..:: 115 = 4. **.. *..... ~..~.~~*%~*~ * c~. P ~ *. '*..,.,,,.,,...,.,,:...,;.,,... b,..,.,.,,.'.. *..%;.%., 'f' * ;,... **.,,,..,,,' "...

23 2. FIA MODEL FORECASTING TECHNIQUES AND THE TREATMENT OF JURISDICTION SHARES GENERAL FORECASTING TECHNIQUE The generl techniques used for forecsting bseline conditions nd projectrelted impcts re similr nd consist essentilly of clculting n infltiondjusted moving verge tht is djusted for yers in which bnorml expenditures occur. The dt bse used for mking the forecsts is the i±ew York Stte finncil dt bse of revenues nd expenditures for ech jurisdiction in the stte mintined t Cornell University. To mke forecst, stndrd infltion index is pplied to the revenue nd expenditure dt to djust them for infltion nd convert ll costs to constnt 1985 dollrs. The dt re then mde prmetric by dividing the dollr mounts by the popultion in the jurisdiction for the yer under considertion. The most recent 3 yers per cpit costs re then verged to give n verge infltiondjusted per cpit cost. The dt re exmined, nd in the event of ny pprent inconsistencies, locl officils re consulted to resolve them. The dt re ppropritely djusted, nd the djusted prmetric costs re used in the FIA model. The bseline condition nd projectrelted forecsts re clculted in essentilly the sme wy. In the bseline projections, the djusted prmetric costs ' re multiplied by the popultion ech yer to develop the forecst for tht yer. A similr method is used for the projectrelted impcts except tht scle fctor is multiplied by the djusted prmetric vlue. Tht scle fctor ccounts for. nticipted chnges in levels of service nd scle effects. Anticipted chnges in levels of service nd scle effects were estimted by nlyzing the historicl per. cpit costs for the tricounty re surrounding Fort Drum. A regression nlysis ws done on the per cpit costs for ll jurisdictions in the three counties by expenditure type. It relted per cpit costs to popultion size in n effort to 21

24 determine the expected expenditures for given service s function of jurisdiction size. The nlysis indicted tht the level of popultion t rhich chnges in the level of service occurred ws in the 5,000 to 7,000 person rnge. At popultion levels below tht rnge, the per cpit expenditures for ny given service were function of the preferences of the jurisdiction's popultion nd not function ofjurisdiction size. This mens tht unless jurisdiction crosses the 5,000 to 7,000 person popultion threshold s result of the expnsion, the historic per cpit costs re resonble predictor of the future costs. Since no jurisdictions crossed this threshold in the Preliminry FIA, ll scle fctors in the current FIA hve the vlue of 1.0. REVENUE FORECASTING The revenues for the FIA model re forecst using the generl techniques described in the previous section with djustments for known chnges. The known * chnges in revenue genertion fll into one of two ctegories. The first, chnge in ', historic tx rtes or lws within the individul jurisdiction, requires djustment of the historic dt to ensure tht the forecst per cpit costs reflect the chnges. The second type, chnge in the stte or federl id tht jurisdiction hs historiclly received, must lso be ccounted for. In the Preliminry FIA, the termintion of Federl revenue shring ws ccounted for by zeroing out tht source of revenue beginning in FY88. No chnges re expected in the historic level of stte id to the ' impct re, nd thus no djustments were mde to those sources of revenues. An djustment must lso be mde to ccount for the timephsed nture of " some revenues. Specificlly, this mens lgging certin ctegories of revenues behind the popultion chnge tht is expected to generte them in order to ccount for the mechnics of revenue genertion nd collection tht exist in some res. Exmples of revenues tht lg popultion chnges re property tx nd certin types of stte id tht re bsed on previous yers' popultions. Further explntion nd V!! ~22 2.'

25 I iw. enumertion of lgged revenues is presented in the explntory notes to the FIA model outputs (Note 22 in Appendix D). EXPENDITURE FORECASTING The expenditures re forecst using the generl technique described in the previous section on Generl Forecsting Technique, with djustments being mde for known chnges in expenditure ptterns. The mjor djustment tht must be mde to the historic expenditure dt is the correction for lrge onetime expenses. Such expenses do not occur often nd re generlly limited to extrordinry items such s sbestos removl, etc. Expenditure djustments re not required in most ggregtions of jurisdictions since the lrge number of dt points tends to smooth the ggregte trend. When single jurisdictions re exmined, however, djustments to expenditures re often required. In the Preliminry FIA, mjor expenditure djustments were necessry in the City of Wtertown nd certin school districts. These djustments re detiled in the explntory notes to the FIA model output (Note 23 nd 24 in Appendix D). CAPITAL FORECASTING The required bseline cpitl expenditures re forecst using the generl forecsting technique previously described, with djustments being mde for trend bnormlities. This pproch differs from tht used for new projectrelted cpitl requirements which re developed on n incrementl csebycse bsis. Forecsting cpitl requirements is much more difficult, nd consequently less ccurte, thn forecsting revenues or expenditures. Cpitl expenditures in most jurisdictions, prticulrly smll ones, tend to be chrcterized by intermittent lrge expenditures. These "spikes" in expenditure histories tend to be smoothed when ggregtions of jurisdictions re exmined, but re significnt fctors when nlyzing individul jurisdictions. The FIA model output for Wtertown City 23

26 required the most cpitl djustments in the Preliminry FIA. The explntory notes for the model outputs describe the cpitl djustments. JURISDICTION SHARES Forecsting the expected project effects in jurisdiction necessittes the lloction of the totl project impcts to the vrious jurisdictions. Popultion, slries, nd jobs re llocted by the popultion distribution fctor tht is developed in the popultion distribution module. The popultion distribution fctor is not pproprite, however, for certin other project impcts tht must be llocted. The impcts tht re llocted in the model by other fctors re construction expenditures, single militry residents, single militry slries, nd locl. government purchses. For Fort Drum, the lloction, or jurisdiction shre, of these impcts ws determined by exmining the reltive cpbility of ech jurisdiction to provide the services nd products needed. The lloction is judgmentl nd ttempts to reflect the historic ptterns s well s the nticipted chnges in the impct re. Most of the llocted impcts re not criticl prt of the nlysis nd re normlly provided only s generl informtion for the jurisdiction. Only single militry residents nd their slries re used in ny of the revenue nd expenditure clcultions, nd their size in reltion to other fctors mkes them reltively insignificnt

27 . / 3. FIA MODEL OUTPUTS STRUCTURE 6. The FIA model output is presented in three sections. The first section presents the bseline conditions for revenues, expenditures, nd expenditures mde to meet. cpitl requirements. It provides the historicl fiscl dt for the jurisdiction s well." s forecst of future yer revenues nd expenditures (without the project). The forecsts use the methodologies described in Chpter 2. The second section presents the new projectrelted requirements. It estimtes the expected project impcts in the jurisdiction nd then forecsts how these impcts will ffect revenues nd expenditures. The forecsts use the previously developed per cpit costs in conjunction with the nticipted popultion increse to determine the new revenues nd expenditures. Cpitl requirements re not clculted within the model itself; rther, they re developed by nlyzing the requirements plced on the jurisdiction by the popultion increse long with the existing cpbilities of the jurisdiction. Locl officils re consulted during the nlysis to ensure tht ll relevnt fctors re considered.,'2/. The finl section of the model output is the forecst budget for the new jurisdiction. This section is primrily summtion of the previous two sections. A forecst of the new budget tht jurisdiction will experience cn be generted by dding the chnges expected to occur s result of the expnsion to the bseline. This new budget is summry of wht is expected to hppen to the jurisdiction from fiscl viewpoint. INTERPRETATION OF MODEL OUTPUTS Two key fctors the mnner in which the csh flows re presented nd the reltionship between cpitl expenditure dt nd generl expenditure dt must 31 ;~~...%.., ,.

28 be clerly understood when interpreting outputs from the FIA model. Insofr s the mnner in which csh flows re presented is concerned, two csh flows re shown on the model outputs. The incrementl csh flow is the net of operting revenues nd expenditures for the yer under considertion only. It does not include the effect of prior yers' popultion increses but rther simply shows the impct of the new incrementl popultion increse on the jurisdiction budget. The cumultive csh '"k' flow is summtion of ll incrementl csh flows to dte. It is the csh flow tht the.,.. jurisdiction is expected to experience s result of the Fort Drum expnsion in ny given yer. A positive csh flow indictes th t the jurisdiction will hve n excess of revenues over expenditures from the operting budget, while the converse indictes tht shortfll exists. The second key fctor is the reltionship between cpitl expenditure dt nd generl expenditure dt. Cpitl expenditures re not included in the generl expenditure portion of the model output. They re relted to the extent tht cpitl expenditures pid for through borrowing will ffect current or future yers' debt service. Cpitl expenditures should, therefore, be nlyzed by looking t the net of operting expenditures nd operting revenues nd viewing tht mount s being source of funds for cpitl needs. The cpitl needs will be met by some mix of csh expenditures nd borrowing, with the ltter resulting in debt service expenses tht will show up in the operting expenditures. This interreltionship must be remembered when nlyzing the effect of cpitl expenditures on the jurisdiction's " budget. 32 W." ':.. '.;.':.:.: i. '. " '. : ' :. : i.'*,i i :.',.. ".. :'; ;: ::...i..

29 .:.. :?122 APPENDIX A DEFINITIONS OF JURISDICTION CHARACTERISTICS.:i.I.'..5?....=... ~ ** *.... * *.5 *..*. *.**"o.. *.*

30 APPENDIX A DEFINITIONS OF JURISDICTION CHARACTERISTICS PUBLIC WATER SYSTEM The vilbility in the jurisdiction of public wter system tht either hs excess cpcity or cn be expnded. The mount of excess cpcity or the ese of expnsion is described with the rting for the jurisdiction. PUBLIC SEWAGE SYSTEM The vilbility in the jurisdiction of public sewge system tht either hs excess cpcity or cn be expnded. The mount of excess cpcity or the ese of ' expnsion is described with the rting for the jurisdiction. RURAL WELL The potentil for wter supply from singlefmily wells in the jurisdiction. RURAL SEPTIC TANK SYSTEM The potentil for tretment of sewge with singlefmily septic tnk nd lech field. The degree to which this is n option in the jurisdiction is described by the rting for the jurisdiction. SCHOOL CAPACITY In school district, the excess cpcity tht cn be used to bsorb increses in the number of students within the district. ROADS The qulity of the rod network surrounding nd servicing the jurisdiction. The primry considertion is ccess to potentil development sites. LOCAL SUPPORT FOR GROWTH The locl feeling concerning development nd growth. It is n ttempt to quntify the degree to which jurisdiction supports or opposes growth..5.a1 A..

31 It ZONING The zoning or other lnduse regultions existing in jurisdiction nd the degree to which they will impede or promote development. AVAILABLE UTILITIES The cpcity of telephone nd electric power to hndle incresed services. If excess cpcity exists, the demnd for these services does not present problem. If expnsion of these services is costly or difficult, it my pose significnt brrier to growth. AVAILABILITY OF SUITABLE RESIDENTIAL LAND The mount of property within jurisdiction tht is suitble for residentil development. Suitble for development refers to the physicl chrcteristics of the property nd not to the vilbility of wter, sewer, or other utilities. TRAVEL TIME TO FORT DRUM The verge trvel time from the jurisdiction to Fort Drum centrl post. * AVAILABLE PUBLIC AND COMMERCIAL SERVICES The commercil nd public services vilble within jurisdiction such s bnks, stores, nd helth services. HOUSING COSTS The verge costs for both rentl nd the purchse of housing units within the jurisdiction. SCHOOL QUALITY The perceived qulity of the schools tht serve the jurisdiction in reltion to other schools in the re. QUALITY OF LIFE/ENVIRONMENT The tngible nd intngible considertions tht influence where renters or buyers will live. Exmples re: sfety (includes fire nd police), recretion fcilities, nd generl surroundings. A2

32 TAXES AND FEES The norml costs ssocited with living in jurisdiction such s locl/county txes, property txes, grbge disposl costs, etc. UTILITY COSTS The verge utility costs in the jurisdiction reltive to those in nerby jurisdictions. In most cses, they will be equl. However, in some cses, jurisdictions re serviced by different power/service compnies with differing rtes. o..o~.7 A3

33 .... ~,.... A. 4 A. ' APPENDIX B RATING SCALES FOR JURISDICTION CHARACTERISTICS P ' v * ' ~4.. 4 A.. 4'... 'A ~ 4. 4s*4 4~4, 4.. *~4 ~ * *A ~ **** **4 ****% 4**~4 4 A.:.'...~ Q'...*. ~ " Sr ~~ ' J~~.*.P4A.~A..P'.d ~....

34 F.V.7!9', 'k. L.: APPENDIX B RATING SCALES FOR JURISDICTION CHARACTERISTICS qr.~* The tbultion presented in this ppendix shows the rting scles for the 17 chrcteristics developed for every town, villge, nd city in the tricounty re surrounding Fort Drum. A subcommittee of the Lnd Use Tsk Force of the Fort Drum Steering Council used these scles to rte ech jurisdictioli to provide n input to the popultion distribution module of the FIA model. Public Wter System X X X X X Lrge Current Expnsion Excess Households Households Demnd Difficult Cpcity Equls ( households) Cpcity * Public Sewge System X X X X X Lrge Current Expnsion Excess Households Households Demnd Difficult Cpcity Equls (10,000 households) Cpcity Rurl Well X X X x X Esy to Possible in Few Obtin All Some Loctions Loctions Loctions Where it is n Option Rurl Septic Tnk System X X X X X Esy to Possible in Few Obtin All Some Loctions Loctions Loctions Where it is n Option Bi.... o o ",P s""'. """" "",," o,.",,,#,.,,.,.,,.,.,'",,"",",,'. " ' " ".... _. _' ;,..,,.' p.,.',..

35 School Cpcity x x x xx Lrge No No Schools Excess Sets Sets Excess Nerby Cpcity (2,000 sets) Rods x x x x x High Qulity Adequte Limited Rod Network Rods to Rods With to Some Sites Poor Con Numerous Sites nections Locl Support for Growth X X X X X Very Neutrl to Do Not Supportive of Growth Wnt Growth Growth. ' Avilbility of Suitble Residentil X X X X X Lnd Lrge Current Expnsion Excess Households Households Demnd Difficult Cpcity Equls (10,000 households) Cpcity Zoning X X X X X.:. Zoning Conductive Zoning Not to Growth Conducive ' : to Growth Trvel Time to Fort Drum X X X X X 15 Minutes Over or Less Minutes Minutes Minutes 60 Minutes Avilble Public nd Commercil Services X _ X " X X X Abundnt Some Few Services Services Services B2

36 Housing Costs Low Cost Averge Cost High Cost School Qulity High Qulity Good Qulity Averge Qulity Qulity of Life/ Environment X X X X X %41 Excellent Good Averge Txes nd Fees X X X X X Below Averge Averge High Utility Costs X X X X X Below Averge Averge High B3

37 APPENDIX C DEFINITION OF TERMS USED IN FIA MODEL OUTPUTS.A 7 r* WV

38 APPENDIX C DEFINITION OF TERMS USED IN FIA MODEL OUTPUTS j REVENUES Property Tx The generl town inside villge (TIV) tx bill derived by multiplying the TIV tx rte by the TIV txble ssessed vlue. Also included re interest nd penlties on ssessments, settlement of rilrod txes, pyments in lieu of txes, nd gins from the sle of txcquired properties. Sles Tx Receipts from sles tx distributed to the town by the county. Other Government (Revenue from Other Locl Governments) Includes revenue received from other locl governments, such s county pyments to town for plowing county rods during the winter. Utility Income (Utility Revenues) The receipts from the opertion of wter, sewer, electric, gs, or stem system. All Other Locl Includes ll revenues not otherwise clssified such s deprtmentl income (including fees nd chrges), licenses, permits, rentls, use of money nd property, sles, fines nd forfeits, recoveries, refunds, repyments, etc. Stte Generl Aid Includes receipts from the stte for per cpit id (revenue shring), mortgge tx, mintennce, opertion nd construction of sewge tretment fcilities, highwys, loss of rilrod tx, nvigtion lw enforcement, youth progrms, recretion for the elderly, etc. CI ' p ~ * * *

39 Federl Revenue Shring nd Other Federl Aid Includes receipts for Federl Revenue Shring, construction of sewge tretment fcilities, community development, etc. OPERATING EXPENDITURES Conceptully, operting expenditures re generlly thought of s regulrly occurring expenditures for services nd for commodities tht re consumed within. reltively short period of time, usully in less thn yer. Exmples include expenditures for slries not devoted to cpitl projects, office supplies, nd electricity. The "Operting Expenditure History" tble shows operting expenditures by functionl re. Operting expenditures in ech functionl re represent the sum of personnel, contrctul, nd llocted fringe benefits expenditures. Fringe benefits re llocted on percentge bsis by clculting the rtio of personnel expenditures to totl personnel expenditures for ech functionl re. The totl of ll fringe benefits is then llocted to functionl res on the bsis of these rtios. Cpitl expenditures re not included in operting expenditures. Generl Government Police Fire Expenditures for executive, legisltive, judicil, nd finncil opertions. Expenditures for police service. ", Expenditures for fire prevention nd protection. This ctegory does not necessrily include the totl budget of independent fire districts. Public Sfety Expenditures for public sfety not included under police or fire (for exmple, dog wrden, building inspector, civil defense, etc.). C2

40 Helth Expenditures for public helth, nursing services, registrr of vitl sttistics, mbulnce, etc. Highwy Personnel nd Hipghwy Contrct Expenditures for mintennce nd improvement of town rods nd bridges, snow removl, street lighting, public trnsporttion, etc. Economic Assistnce Expenditures to promote the economic welfre of the town nd its residents. Culture nd Recretion Expenditures for culturl ctivities, prks, plygrounds, youth nd dult recretion, celebrtions, etc. Utilities Expenditures for the opertion nd dministrtion of wter, sewer, electric, gs, or stem system. Other Home nd Community Expenditures for grbge collection nd disposl, cemeteries, dringe, conservtion purposes, nd other home nd community services provided by the town. The term "other" is used here becuse "utilities" nd "other home nd community services" re subctegories of "home nd community services." CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Conceptully, cpitl expenditures re generlly considered to consist of mounts spent for ssets with useful life of more thn yer. A distinction is mde between recurrent nd regulr cpitl expenditures. Recurrent cpitl expenditures re those used for cpitl ssets of reltively smll vlue nd/or those tht re routinely budgeted for in the nnul operting budget; they include expenditures for such items s filing cbinets, desks, shovels, wrenches, nd the like. Regulr.. C3,.'/,...,...,,....:,...,......,, ,

41 cpitl expenditures consist of expenditures for ssets tht hve lrge vlue in reltion to jurisdiction's budget nd re expected to provide benefits for number of yers. Some exmples re expenditures for rod construction, bridges, highwy equipment, lnd, wter nd sewer systems, buildings, nd computer system. Generlly, people hve regulr cpitl expenditures in mind when they refer to cpitl expenditures. The expenditure ctegories used in the Cpitl Expenditure tble duplicte those used in the Operting Expenditure History tble. The definitions of these terms re the sme except tht here they pply to cpitl expenditure. The mounts listed in the Cpitl Expenditure tble re those normlly included in "equipment nd cpitl outly" by the New York Stte Deprtment of Audit nd Control. They consist of expenses incurred for equipment purchses nd the construction, improvement, nd cquisition of fixed ssets such s municipl fcilities, public buildings, rel property, streets, highwys, bridges, nd sewers. Expenditures for supplies re not included. Such expenses re considered contrctul expenses nd re therefore included in operting expenditures. DEBT Debt Service.". The interest on principl mount of the bond issue tht is expended during the yer. Debt Subject to Limit The dollr mount of outstnding bonds, bond nticiption notes, nd other notes t the end of the prticulr jurisdiction's fiscl yer tht re chrgeble to the stte constitutionl debt limit for tht jurisdiction. Constitutionl Debt Limit The debt limit for the prticulr jurisdiction for the stted yer clculted in ccordnce with the provisions of the Stte Constitution. For both towns nd Z...N C i.

42 villges, this limit is 7 percent of the most recent 5yer verge full vlution of Percent of Bonding Cpcity Used For ech yer, the mount for debt subject to limit divided by the mount for constitutionl debt limit, converted to percentge. Unused Bonding Cpcity The mount of the constitutionl debt limit tht hs not been used. ] rel property txble for town or villge purposes. C5

43 APPENDIX D LOCAL GOVERNMENT FIA MODEL OUTPUTS D1 LOCAL GOVERNMENT MODEL OUTPUT NOTES, D6 IMPACT AREA D14 JEFFERSON COUNTY. D22 LEWIS COUNTY D30 ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY D38 JEFFERSON COUNTY (IMPACTED JURISDICTIONS) D46 LEWIS COUNTY (IMPACTED JURISDICTIONS) ""_ D54 ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY (IMPACTED JURISDICTIONS).{ D62 WATERTOWN CITY., :.,

44 APPENDIX D LOCAL GOVERNMENT FIA MODEL OUTPUTS The following notes explin vrious spects of the politicl jurisdiction segment of the FIA model nd how it works. They should be used in conjunction with the detiled module descriptions in Chpter 1. In cses in which the note does not pply eqully to ll jurisdictions being nlyzed, the exceptions re stted in the note. I Notes re normlly tied to specific portion of the model output; however, Notes 4, 6, 8, 14, nd 20 re generl nd re not tied to ny prticulr prt of the output. NOTE 1. Officilly reported popultion figures re used whenever vilble. Projections bsed on New York Stte Deprtment of Commerce sttistics re used for future yers. NOTE 2. Popultion chnges re yertoyer increses (decreses) tht re bsed upon the projected popultion from the New York Stte Deprtment of Commerce for * the impct re. NOTE 3. Budget informtion is ctul dt reported to New York Stte up to nd including FY82 for most jurisdictions. FY83 nd FY84 dt for Wtertown City re ctul reported figures, while the dt for other jurisdictions is estimted for FY83 nd FY84. FY85 nd beyond re projections tht re bsed upon the historicl e:4. trends on per cpit bsis fter djusting for infltion. Dt bnormlities or chnges in the underlying ssumptions re corrected for in the individul jurisdiction's model outputs. Cpitl expenditures normlly require some djustment becuse of their irregulr pttern when individul jurisdictions re being considered. Groupings ofjurisdictions normlly do not require this djustment since the irregulrities tend to be smoothed by the lrge number of dt points. D1 _N.:...;,

45 NOTE 4. Actul plnned cpitl expenditures re bsed on input from the jurisdictions nd re incorported into the jurisdictions' needed cpitl improvements on pge 6 of the model output. NOTE 5. Informtion is bsed on the Fort Drum MILCON progrm with the brekdown of totl construction dollrs done in the construction module. Further informtion on how the costs re broken down is presented in Chpter 1. NOTE 6. The new militry popultion is bsed upon the Armyprovided bseloding schedule nd the nticipted demogrphics of the new militry fmilies. A detiled description of the militry popultion nd how it ws nlyzed is presented,, in Chpter 1. NOTE 7. Militry slries re bsed on the existing militry py scles nd the bygrde bseloding schedule. Allownces such s housing nd subsistence re included in the clcultions. The 1985 py scles re the bsis for the income determintion. The single slries re only for those militry members who re single nd re expected to live in the jurisdiction. NOTE 8. The number of new government employees is bsed on the nticipted work force increses t Fort Drum. NOTE 9. Federl civilin slries re bsed on the bygrde nticipted work force increses nd the civil service py scles for NOTE 10. It is ssumed tht employees t the GS6 level nd below will be hired from the locl work force nd will not be prt of the inmigrtion to the re.. Employees in Grdes GS7 nd bove re ssumed to come from outside the impct re nd will be prt of the inmigrtion to the impct re. NOTE 11. The direct jobs (including new militry) tht hve been creted s result N. of the Fort Drum expnsion include construction workers who re ssumed to relocte permnently to the re, federl civilins, nd new militry. r., D2

46 NOTE 12. For the yers prior to FY85, the informtion is the ctul reported budget informtion. For FY85 nd future yers, it is projection of incrementl increses cused by the Fort Drum expnsion. NOTE 13. The totl bonding cpcity includes both the new bonding cpcity ;. resulting from projectgenerted growth nd existing unused bonding cpcity for the withoutproject cse. The new bonding cpcity for ggregtions of jurisdictions ws not clculted. When the FIA is extended to individul jurisdictions, the clcultion cn be mde for those jurisdictions in which the legl bonding limit is n issue. This ws not done for Wtertown City becuse the legl bonding limit is not n issue there. NOTE 14. The totl new government employee popultion increse is determined by ssuming tht 77 percent of the new government employees re mrried nd their verge household size is NOTE 15. The totl direct slry is equl to the jurisdiction's shre of the following incomes: construction worker slry, new Federl civilin slry, new militry. slry (single militry), nd new militry household slry.. NOTE 16. The new indirect (includes induced) jobs re clculted using the multiplier for indirect employment from the secondry effects module. A detiled description of the secondry effects module is presented in Chpter 1. NOTE 17. This includes the new civilin popultion, the new Federl civilin popultion, nd the new militry popultion. NOTE 18. This ssumes tht 77 percent of the new jobs will be climed by heds of households nd tht the verge household size is The following minimum i levels of inmigrtion were ssumed even when sufficient lbor existed: 10 percent of the construction workers, 20 percent of the Federl civilin workers, nd 5 percent of the indirect work force. This ssumption ws mde to ccount for supervisory D3 *

47 personnel nd personnel with specil skills tht will be in short supply in the impct re, i.e., computer opertors, etc. NOTE 19. This is the slries tht will be brought to the re by mrried militry members, nd it includes llownces such s housing nd subsistence. It is clculted in the sme mnner s tht for the single militry member (see Note 7). NOTE 20. The indirect ctegories include wht is sometimes referred to s induced effects. A more detiled description of wht is included in the indirect ctegories is presented in Chpter 1. NOTE 21. This ssumes tht 48 percent of the militry spouses will seek work nd enter the lbor force. Despite n dequte supply, the model ssumes tht 10 percent of the construction workers will be inmigrnts to the impct re until FY88 becuse of the need for supervisory personnel nd specil construction skills. *. After FY88, the model ssumes tht some switching between these construction inmigrnts nd the followon construction inmigrnts will occur, i.e., the effect will not be cumultive. The lbor supply is incresed yerly by the spouses of new inmigrnts who re expected to wnt to work nd will find jobs. The model ssumes tht 40 percent of the spouses for the previous yer's inmigrnts will become prt of the work force. NOTE 22. Some ctegories of revenues will lg becuse of the nture of the revenue. Exmples re types of revenues bsed upon previous yers' informtion such s stte id, property tx, etc. In these cses, the revenue is lgged 1 yer from the time tht new revenue source ppers in the impct re. NOTE 23. The cpitl requirements for utilities hve been distorted by the extrordinrily lrge expenditures in 1982 by the City of Wtertown. To give more '..'. ccurte estimtion of future cpitl costs, 1982 utility cpitl costs hve been djusted for the city of Wtertown in the impct re nlysis by using 1982, 1983, nd 1984 budget informtion for Wtertown City to forecst cpitl requirements. D4

48 NOTE 24. The other home nd community cpitl costs hve been distorted by extrordinrily lrge expenditures in 1980 by the City of Wtertown. To give more ccurte estimtion of future cpitl requirements, 1980 other home nd community costs hve been deleted for the City of Wtertown nd in the impct re nlysis. NOTE 25. The sles tx projection hs been djusted downwrd for the effect of the militry popultion. The militry money income verges $6,400 compred to the impct re verge of $9,500. The model ssumes tht the militry fmily will spend on the verge bout 70 percent of its money income in the impct re. The per cpit sles tx revenues were weighted to ccount for both of these fctors. NOTE 26. Government purchses hve been estimted using the historicl pttern of Fort Drum purchses. Only portion of the Fort Drum purchses re ssumed to go to the locl re. The model ssumption for the exct jurisdiction shre is shown.'. on pge 3 of the model output. NOTE 27. Initilly it is ssumed tht there will not be bse operting support (BOS) contrctor t Fort Drum. The model hs been structured to ccommodte the,,. use of BOS contrctor in the future. NOTE 28. The cumultive popultion includes the pportioned number of construction workers tht re forecst to relocte to the re. It is ssumed tht they will sty in the re in the short term, the next 5 yers. Some switching of permnently relocted construction workers will occur; for exmple, construction superintendent who leves fter 2yer job is completed will be replced by different superintendent for different job. In the out yers the yers beyond 1990 some djustment will be mde in the permnently relocted construction work force. Tht djustment should hve little effect on the overll popultion size becuse it is expected to be smll reltive to the inmigrting new popultion nd it will tke plce over period of time.. 5 I D5.

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116 APPENDIX E SCHOOL DISTRICT FIA MODEL OUTPUTS I E1 SCHOOL DISTRICT NOTES MODEL OUTPUT E5 INDIAN RIVER E9 CARTHAGE E13 WATERTOWN E17 GENERAL BROWN E21 COPENHAGEN E25 THOUSAND ISLAND

117 APPENDIX E SCHOOL DISTRICT FIA MODEL OUTPUTS The following notes explin vrious spects of the school district segment of the FIA model nd how it works. The school segment uses the sme input modules s the locl government FIA model. The forecsting methodology nd nlysis techniques re generlly the sme s those used in the locl government FIA model (Chpters 1 through 3). The mjor differences between the school district FIA model nd tht used for locl governments is the ctegoriztion of revenues nd expenditures nd the difference in prmeters used to develop the forecst mounts. Becuse the ctegories of revenue nd expenditures used re unique to school districts nd do not correlte directly with those used by locl governments, different formt is necessry. A mjor difference in this regrd is the mnner in which cpitl expenditures re treted. School districts do not report seprte cpitl budgets. Insted, cpitl expenditures requiring borrowing re reported under debt principl nd interest, subset of undistributed expenditures. The prmeters used to develop forecst expenditures differ from those used in locl governments in tht mounts re generted on perstudent bsis. Revenues re generted on per cpit bsis, which is used s surrogte for households, the ctul revenue genertor. Other nlysis nd forecsting methodologies re the sme s those for locl governments. Three worksheets were developed for ech school district. First is the bse cse for which the expenses nd revenue ctegories re projected ccording to the student 4', nd totl popultion the re would hve experienced without the Fort Drum " * expnsion. The second worksheet is for the "project only" cse, which shows the " sme expenses nd revenues for the projected byyer inmigrtion of students nd E1 Ice.l"i ' ".q q,,. M "J' i ' ". J I.*,v., "i "..' ','"""""". "." L ll _."

118 popultion. The third worksheet is for the "new budget" cse, nd it shows revenues nd expenses for the bsecse popultion, plus the cumultive inmigrtion. NOTE 1. The projected popultion inmigrtion for the re's villges, towns, nd cities ws mde using the methods explined in Chpter 1. The student inmigrtion ws clculted from this politicl jurisdiction forecst in two steps. First, trnsltion of the politicl jurisdiction forecst to school district involved severl clcultions since the school districts usully encompss more thn one villge, town, or city, nd the politicl jurisdictions often contined more thn one school district. New York Stte Comptroller dt ws used to determine the school district shre of school property tx pid by ech politicl jurisdiction. This shre of property tx ws ssumed to be the sme s the shre of totl inmigrtion to be llocted to the school district. Portions of ech pplicble politicl jurisdiction were then dded to mke the school district. For exmple, the Wtertown City school district ws found to consist of ll of Wtertown City, 4 percent of Rutlnd Township, 13 percent of Pmeli Township, 67 percent of Wtertown Township, nd 26 percent of LeRy Township. Wtertown City School District ws then clculted to hve the totl inmigrtion of Wtertown City plus the pproprite percent of the remining townships tht contribute to the school district. NOTE 2. Operting revenues nd expenditure forecsts were bsed on the most recent 3 yers for which dt were vilble. Ech ctegory of revenue nd expenditure ws djusted to constnt 1985 dollrs nd verged. This 3yer djusted verge ws then divided by the 1984/85 student popultion or totl popultion to determine perstudent or per cpit rte for ech expense or revenue. Pge 2 of the model output shows the ctegories nd the rte (perstudent or per cpit) used to project forwrd. Generlly, expenses re projected on perstudent bsis nd revenues re projected on per cpit bsis. E2

119 NOTE 3. The projected revenues nd expenses re ltered from the historic per cpit nd perstudent verges where pproprite. These djustments reflect significnt chnges in opertions from the 3yer bse nd were bsed on input from the individul school districts. The most significnt djustment ws mde to techerrelted slry expenses. Are school districts expect techer slries to jump by up to 10 percent per yer. These expenditures were consequently incresed by 4 percent ech yer. The expenditures re in constnt infltiondjusted dollrs so the 4 percent increse equtes to pproximtely 9 percent rel peryer increse. To compenste for tht increse, stte id nd property tx revenues were incresed 2 percent per yer. NOTE 4. Other djustments mde to the Wtertown City School District re: " Subtrction of $50/yer 'll others' revenues to reflect loss in revenues generted by use of North Junior School s socil service center * Property tx increse of 3 percent (s opposed to 2 percent) Incresed expense of 5 percent pplied to 'trnsporttion' to reflect dditionl rising costs from redistricting. NOTE 5. Cpitl requirements pid for through borrowings re ccounted for s principl nd interest pyments. Minor cpitl expenditures re included in the operting expenses. This tretment is different from tht used by locl governments. The projectrelted cpitl requirements re described in the Preliminry FIA. These costs re not included in the FIA sheets becuse the method of pyment nd the level of stte prticiption re not known. NOTE 6. The student inmigrtion ws clculted from the totl inmigrtion. The totl inmigrtion ws divided between civilin nd militry relted inmigrtion, nd demogrphic fctors were pplied to ech. Existing (1985) Jefferson County demogrphics were used to predict the civilin school ge inmigrtion, nd current Fort Drum militry demogrphics were used for the militry inmigrtion. E3.E.'

120 Nonpublic school enrollment ws ssumed to be unffected by the expnsion. Currently, nonpublic school enrollment is pproximtely 1 percent of public school enrollment. NOTE 7. Federl Impct Aid revenues were clculted on New York Stte Locl Contribution Rte of $2,555. The militry or Federl civilin children in most school districts fll into the "regulr B" ctegory nd re llocted $37 ech. Since Crthge nd Indin River ech hve "regulr A" children, the perstudent Impct Aid revenue is weighted verge of the two rtes. No school district ws ssumed * to hve reched the "super A" or "super B" ctegories. 5 1: E E4

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145 APPENDIX F NEW YORK STATE FIA MODEL OUTPUTS Fi NEW YORK STATE MODEL OUTPUT NOTES F6 NEW YORK STATE MODEL OUTPUTS.. 1,... ''..; f.'. '.*] _ " "'..,,,, ,',e ',,,. ' " 4',' ",.,''R,,,."," ",*".,'. "% '. " *.", " ' '%, %

146 APPENDIX F NEW YORK STATE FIA MODEL OUTPUTS The following notes explin vrious spects of the New York Stte segment of the FIA model nd how it works. They should be used in conjunction with the detiled descriptions of the model nd modules in Chpter 1. The project dt, pge 1, re identicl to the project dt shown on pge 3 of the locl government outputs. The explntory notes tht describe the project dt on the locl government outputs, pge 3, pply eqully to the New York Stte nd re not repeted here. Revenue, expenditure, nd cpitl requirements notes from the locl government outputs do not pply to the stte output. The following notes cover those items for the output of the stte segment of the FIA model. NOTE 1. The primry socil services tht will be impcted s result of the *: expnsion of Fort Drum re dult services, locl progrms, emergency ssistnce to * fmilies, food stmps, juvenile detention, nd cre nd tretment of courtinvolved youths. The stte id provided to locl jurisdictions for these services is bsed upon the mount of pproved expenditures tht the locl jurisdictions experience. Thus, the stte outflows for these services cn be directly relted to n increse in popultion. Militry fmilies will not consume the ffected socil services t the sme levels s the popultion in the impct re (they will be lower) becuse similr services re provided through the Army. Exceptions to this re juvenile detention, runwy nd homeless youths, nd cre nd tretment of courtinvolved youth, these services re ssumed to require the sme level of service. Locl dministrtion of socil services progrms is estimted to require 24 percent of the norml per cpit expenditures for the immigrting popultion. The remining socil service progrms re estimted to require services t 66 percent of the norml New York Fi

147 Stte rte. The per cpit rte ws clculted using the comptrollerreported costs, which were then esclted to 1985 constnt dollrs. NOTE 2. Much of the stte id for trnsporttion goes to mss trnsporttion, which is miniml in the impct re. The primry stte flow to the locl communities in the impct re is for highwy mintennce, which is bsed on the miles of rods in the jurisdiction. The impct re hs good existing rod network nd little new rod construction is expected in the first yers of the project. We hve ssumed tht the rod miles will increse by 10 percent over the current system, which will result in 10 percent increse in stte ssistnce. It is ssumed tht this incresed ssistnce will begin in FY87, resulting in $53,000 increse in nnul stte highwy id to the impct re. NOTE 3. Stte revenue shring is determined to lrge extent by the loction of the popultion. For exmple, cities receive higher per cpit revenue shring rte thn do villges, nd the rte for villges is higher thn tht for towns. The current policy in New York Stte is tht the stte revenue shring rte is fixed unless k jurisdictions request specil census. Though it is unlikely tht the impcted jurisdictions will request such census in the erly yers of the project becuse the cost of the census will most likely exceed ny benefit they would derive, we hve ssumed tht the stte would tke ctions to mke this djustment without specil census. The dditionl stte generl id ws clculted using the historic per cpit rte for the jurisdictions in the impct re pplied to the inmigrting popultion. NOTE 4. Stte ssistnce for helth is determined by the mount of pproved expenditures tht the jurisdiction experiences. Thus, popultion increses cn be used to estimte the incresed stte outflows s result of the project. Most ctegories of helth services will be consumed by inmigrnts t existing levels except tht militry fmilies will tend to consume these services t lower rte thn the existing popultion of the impct re becuse of the helth services provided by, F2 L' ii

148 the Army. The impct re verge ws used to estimte the service requirement becuse insufficient dt existed to substntite reduction in the per cpit rte. This conservtive pproch most likely oversttes the stte's expected expenditures for helth. NOTE 5. Eduction ssistnce hs been estimted using the stte formuls for determining stte ssistnce to schools nd the expected popultion distribution. The verge eduction ssistnce provided to school districts in the impct re is $2,500 per student. The stteprovided ssistnce for schools ws estimted by multiplying tht rte times the forecst number of new students. NOTE 6. In estimting the mount of sles tx the stte will receive from the incresed popultion, we ssumed tht militry members nd their dependents 'A would spend 70 percent of their money income. This mount ppers resonble when historicl consumption ptterns for militry t Fort Drum re exmined. To develop per cpit rte, the sles tx per person must be djusted becuse militry members receive lower money income ($6,400) thn the impct re verge ($9,000) nd must then be weighted for the percentge of the totl popultion increse tht will be militry members. No ttempt ws mde to quntify the incresed consumption tht will result from decresed unemployment mking the. sles tx figure conservtive estimte. NOTE 7. The construction sles tx ws estimted by developing typicl Fort Drum construction project nd nlyzing tht project to determine the mount of mterils nd equipment rentls tht would be subject to New York Stte sles tx. This percentge (3 percent) ws then pplied to expected construction expenditures by yer nd multiplied by the stte's 4 percent sles tx rte to get the estimted stte sles tx on construction mterils nd equipment. Other offbse construction will lso contribute stte tx revenues. The mgnitude of the offbse construction will be minimum of $200 million which would generte stte sles txes of F3

149 $2.2 million. This flow ws not included in the nlysis becuse of the uncertinty in the source of funding for housing, which is the lrgest component of offbse construction. The stte revenues for construction sles tx could be understted by s much s $2.2 million depending on the sources of funding for the housing (e.g., re the housing projects subject to sles tx?). NOTE 8. Gsoline tx ws estimted by ssuming tht 70 percent of militry members' gs purchses will be on bse nd not subject to stte txes nd then developing weighted per cpit rte. The weighted per cpit rte ws used to estimte the stte gsoline txes tht would be generted. NOTE 9. Income tx contributions to New York Stte s result of the project were nlyzed by dividing txpyers into three brod groups: militry members who would be subject to New York income tx, Federl civilin workers, nd ll other direct nd indirect workers. It ws ssumed tht 10 percent of the new militry.. members will be New York residents nd will hve to py New York income tx. To clculte their tx contribution, the militry group ws divided into three subgroups: militry single, militry mrried with working spouse, nd militry mrried with nonworking spouse. The tx contribution for ech of these groups ws clculted using the 1985 py scles nd the expected ernings of working spouses. A further decrese of 3 percent ws mde to ccount for the new chnges in the New York Stte tx lws. A weighted contribution rte ws then determined by using the demogrphics for militry fmilies (number of mrried militry) nd the ssumption tht 48 percent of the militry spouses will work. The Federl civilin contribution ws clculted in similr fshion except tht it ws ssumed tht 77 percent of the Federl civilins will be mrried nd tht 40 percent of the spouses will work. It should be noted tht the tx contribution for the spouses is not included in these rtes. Their income ws used only to determine the tx brcket tht the militry member or Federl civilin would fll into. The F4

150 stte income tx contribution for the militry nd Federl civilin spouses will be included in the other direct nd indirect contribution. The stte income tx contribution for the remining direct employment nd the indirect employment ws clculted by using the verge per cpit contribution for fourcounty re round Fort Drum. The verge per cpit tx contribution ws incresed by 8.7 percent to ccount for ll of the new job holders being employed. Ntionl demogrphics were used to generte household sizes for Federl civilins. All other direct nd indirect employment ws ssumed to be subject to New York *Stte income tx. NOTE 10. The business tx contribution to New York Stte, s result of the expnsion t Fort Drum, ws clculted by determining which corporte txes would chnge s result of the expnsion nd then clculting the mgnitude of the chnge. The following corporte (business) txes will be ffected: mnufcturing, wholesle trde, finnce, insurnce, nd rel estte. The per cpit totl for these txes is $31; however, this totl must be djusted for the different consumption of the militry fmily, i.e., lower money income nd PX purchses. The djusted per cpit rte is then $19, which is the rte used to clculte the business tx contribution to New York Stte resulting from the Fort Drum expnsion. NOTE 11. The mjor miscellneous tx revenues for the Stte of New York re for txes on cigrettes, motor vehicles, lcoholic beverges, nd highwy use. It is ssumed tht highwy use txes will generte the sme revenues, on per cpit bsis, for the inmigrnts s they do for the existing impct re residents. For the other ctegories of tx revenues, it is ssumed tht only 30 percent of the norml rte will be experienced becuse the militry members will be ble to void these txes by purchses t post exchnges, etc.., * J. 7 F5 I,

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155 prf~r~.rf'~ 7..I ~..' '\'. 2.J72 ~.5,~ ' ~ ~ ~ W Tj YN10 ".'.B~'07 no npfl'a.axr A ~~ UNCLASSIFIED ECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGEREOTD C M NAINPG J I. REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION l b. RESTRICTIVE MARKINGS e~ Unclssified 2. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION AUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY OF REPORT 2b.DECLASSIFICATION / DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE "A" Approved for Public Relese; distribution unlimited PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) 5. MONITORING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER(S) LMI Tsk ML NAME OF PERFORMING ORGANIZATION 6b.OFFICE SYMBOL 7. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION Logistics Mngement Institute 1 (if pplicble) 'J 6c. ADDRESS (City, Stte, nd ZIP Code) 7b. ADDRESS (City, Stte, nd ZIP Code) 6400 Goldsboro Rod Bethesd, Mrylnd NAM E OF FU NDI NG / SPONSORI NG 1 b.office SYMBOL 9. PROCUREMENT INSTRUMENT IDENTIFICATION NUMBER ORGANIZATION I (if pplicble) MAO5C03 OASD(FM&P I *8c. ADDRESS (City, Stte, nd ZIP Code) 10. SOURCE OF FNDING NUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT The ITASK Office of the WORK Assistnt UNIT Secretry of Defense ELEMENT NO. INO. I NO. ACCESSION NO Force Mngement nd PersonnelI Wshington, D.C II 11. TITLE (include Security Clssifiction) * Fort Drum Preliminry Fiscl Impct Anlysis Technicl Appendices 12 PRSONAL AUTHOR(S) Willim B. Moore, Dvid D. Metclf, Dr. Thoms Muller *13. TYPE OF REPORT 13b. TIME COVERED 14. DATE OF REPORT (Yer, Month, Dy) 15S. PAGE COUNT * FINAL IFROM TO FEB SUPPLEMENTARY NOTATION *17. COSATI CODES 18. SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessry nd identify by block number) * FIELD GROUP SUBGROUP Fiscl Impct Anlysis, Militry Bse Expnsion 19. ABSTRACT (Continue on reverse if necessry nd identify by block number) The Office of Economic Adjustmentsponsored report nlyzes the fiscl impcts of the plnned expnsion of Fort Drum, New York to ccommodte.. V the sttioning of the 10th Division.,. fiscl impct nlysis model ws developed s prt of the study nd is described in the report. The report consists. of two volumes. The first volume is ftq_ summry, nd the second volume contins the technicl ppendices nd the model outputs. 20DSTRIBUTION IAVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 0UNCLASSIFIEO#UNLIMITED 0 SAME AS RPT 0 DTIC USERS 21 ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 22 NAME OF RESPONSIBLE INDIVIDUAL 22b. TELEPHONE (Include Are Code) 22c, OFFICE SYMBOL DID FORM 1473,84 MAR 83 APR edition my be used until exhusted SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE All other editions re obsolete UNCLASSIFIED [A % V "...*.