Budget Monitoring Report Quarter ending June 30, 2018

Transcription

1 Budget Monitoring Report Quarter ending June 30, 2018

2 Economic Outlook National Economy The economy continued the same solid growth experienced over the past year through the current quarter Economic indicators are mostly positive throughout the quarter Consensus among economic forecasts continues to be positive, with similar growth in the economy projected through the end of

3 U.S. Leading Economic Index June 2017 June 2018 Source: The Conference Board 3

4 Consumer Price Index June 2017 June 2018 All Urban Consumers One-month Percentage Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 4

5 U.S. Unemployment Rate June 2017 June 2018 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted) 5

6 State/Local Economic Outlook Unemployment State unemployment rates dropped slightly in April to 4.2 percent where it remained each month through June. The unemployment rate for San Diego County and the City of La Mesa dropped to 2.9 percent in April before increasing to 3.7 percent and 3.6 percent respectively in June. Projections for employment in San Diego County are for job growth to expand slightly through the end of the year, with growth expected to land in the 1% range and the region s unemployment rate edging down slightly. Source: State of California, Beacon Economics Regional Outlook 6

7 Unemployment Comparison U.S./State/County Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics California Employment Development Department 7

8 9-Year Unemployment Trends U.S./State/County Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics California Employment Development Department 8

9 State/Local Economic Outlook USD Economic Outlook The local Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) decreased by.2 percent each month in April and May. The LEI had been positive or unchanged for seventeen consecutive months through March 2018, before declining slightly this quarter Contributors to the drop were decreases in on-line help wanted advertising, a moderate decrease in unemployment insurance claims, and a small decline in residential units authorized by building permits The outlook for the local economy remains positive through the end of 2018, although local economists are watching the recent declines closely for signs of continued decreases 9

10 USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators May 2017 May 2018 Source: University of San Diego 10

11 USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators San Diego County, Source: University of San Diego 11

12 Sales Tax Revenues First Quarter 2018 Statewide and San Diego County sales tax revenues were negative when compared to First Quarter 2017 (January through March sales) San Diego County sales tax revenues decreased by 3.6 percent while La Mesa saw a decrease of 7.6 percent in quarter one Statewide the decrease was 1.8 percent with most regions in the State experiencing declines Proposition L Transactions taxes were fairly flat over the same period 12

13 Sales Tax Revenues First Quarter 2018 Sales Tax Allocation Totals First Quarter 2018 % Change Q1 17 to Q1 18 Q Imperial Beach 12.42% SD Uninc. 8.00% Solana Beach 4.26% Poway 3.75% Lemon Grove -1.43% Chula Vista -1.50% San Marcos -1.62% Encinitas -1.89% El Cajon -2.88% San Diego -3.10% Oceanside -3.25% Santee -3.56% Coronado -3.93% National City -6.35% Escondido -7.00% Del Mar -7.57% La Mesa -7.61% Vista % Carlsbad % San Diego Cnty -3.57% State of Calif -1.81% Source: Hinderliter de Llamas and Associates 13

14 General Fund Performance Tax Revenues Base sales tax, Proposition L sales tax and other tax revenues have not been fully received; final fiscal year amounts will be received and recorded by the end of August All property tax revenues for the fiscal year have been received and are slightly higher than budgetary levels All taxes are expected to meet budgetary expectations for Fiscal Year

15 General Fund Performance Tax Revenues Through 99% of Fiscal Year General Fund Tax Revenues Budget Current Fiscal Year YTD Collected % Budget Prior Year Comparison YTD Collected % Budget Taxes Property Tax* $ 13,357,420 $ 13,372, % $ 12,620, % Sales Tax 13,053,800 10,896, % 12,865, % Prop L 8,550,300 7,501, % 8,406, % Other Taxes 3,276,700 2,977, % 3,493, % Taxes received thru 06/30/16 38,238,220 34,748, % 37,386, % *Property Tax includes former tax increment revenue received as a result of the dissolution of redevelopment 15

16 General Fund Performance Expenditures Overall preliminary General Fund expenditures are under budget with 99 percent of the year transpired The Fire department is slightly higher than budget due to unanticipated overtime as a result of the fires throughout the state. These expenditures will eventually be reimbursed by the Office of Emergency Services All other departments are within budgetary expectations, with Community Development and Community Services both well under budget 16

17 General Fund Performance Expenditures Through 99% of Fiscal Year General Fund Expenditures Budget 1 YTD Encumbered/ Expended 2 % of Budget General Fund Department Expenditures Police $ 18,084,475 $ 17,717, % Fire 10,999,730 11,048, % Public Works 8,738,560 8,668, % Administrative Services 6,360,220 6,158, % Community Development 2,361,865 1,942, % Community Services 1,803,250 1,601, % Total General Fund Expenditures $ 48,348,100 $ 47,137, % 1 Budget reflects any amendments approved by the City Council through the end of the quarter 2 Includes expenditures encumbered through end of quarter reported 17

18 General Fund Performance Reserves The General Fund Forecast projected ending General Fund Reserves for June 30, 2018 to be $29,877,103 Estimated ending General Fund Reserves reflects the actual ending balance at June 30, 2017 combined with current revenue and expenditure estimates, resulting in a slightly higher estimated ending fund balance that originally budgeted Review of preliminary year end revenues and expenditures indicates the Reserve Projection to remain on track 18

19 General Fund Performance Reserves Actuals FY FY FY FY Original Budget Rev Ending Reserves Projected Ending Reserves 24,345,022 29,395,841 29,696,208 26,739,970 27,949,148 29,877,103 Reserves as % of Operating Expenditures 59.4% 63.1% 61.7% 55.6% 58.1% 62.1% Reserves: Property Sale (Police Station) 3,050,000 3,050,000 3,050,000 2,350,000 2,350,000 2,350,000 Property Sale (Other land) 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 Proposition L Revenues 7,891,852 8,298,939 8,406,483 8,550,300 8,550,300 8,101,400 Reserves from Operations 9,403,171 14,046,901 14,239,724 11,839,670 13,048,848 15,425,703 Total Ending General Fund Reserves 24,345,022 29,395,841 29,696,208 26,739,970 27,949,148 29,877,103 19

20 Budget Monitoring Report Quarter Ending June 30, 2018 Questions/Comments 20