Budget Monitoring Report Quarter ending September 30, 2014

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1 Budget Monitoring Report Quarter ending September 30, 2014

2 Economic Outlook National Economy Economic recovery continues to be positive with the economy continuing to grow at a moderate pace Most economic indicators show overall positive change over the previous twelve months Consensus among economic forecasts that the economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace through the end of 2014

3 U.S. Leading Economic Index September 2013 September 2014 Source: The Conference Board

4 Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) One-month Percentage Change September 2013 September 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

5 U.S. Unemployment Rate September 2013 September 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)

6 State/Local Economic Outlook State unemployment rate remained at June levels of 7.4 percent for July and August before declining slightly to 7.3 percent in September Unemployment for San Diego County and La Mesa increased slightly from June levels in July (6.6 percent and 5.5 percent respectively) before dropping to 6.2 percent and 5.2 percent respectively in August and again to 5.9 percent and 4.9 percent respectively in September The USD Index of Leading Indicators were positive through September

7 Unemployment Comparison U.S./State/County/City Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics California Employment Development Department

8 5-Year Unemployment Trends U.S./State/County/City Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics California Employment Development Department

9 USD Economic Outlook The local index showed positive gains between June and September and overall up 1.2 percent from September 2013 Gains in consumer confidence and improvements in unemployment claims were offset by decreases in building permits September s gain was the fourth in a row for the USD Index and was the largest monthly gain since February The forecast remains for strong growth in the local economy, which is poised to add another 30,000 jobs in Source: University of San Diego

10 USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators One-month Percentage Change September 2012 August 2013 Source: University of San Diego

11 USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators San Diego County, Source: University of San Diego

12 Sales Tax Revenues Second Quarter 2014 Sales tax revenues, both statewide and in San Diego County, increased again when compared to Second Quarter 2013 La Mesa saw a 6.55 percent increase (on a cash basis) when comparing the second quarter 2014 to the same time period in 2013 (April June) Proposition L Transactions taxes increased 5.5 percent (on a cash basis) for the same period

13 Sales Tax Revenues Second Quarter 2014 Sales Tax Allocation Totals Second Quarter 2014 % Change Q2 13 to Q2 14 Q Lemon Grove 21.83% Coronado 17.89% Santee 16.69% Imperial Beach 10.72% Carlsbad 9.04% SD Uninc. 8.85% Encinitas 8.17% Vista 7.84% Solana Beach 6.93% San Diego 6.85% Poway 6.65% La Mesa 6.55% National City 4.98% Chula Vista 3.91% Escondido 3.71% El Cajon 3.08% Oceanside 0.64% San Marcos 0.20% Del Mar % San Diego Cnty 6.36% State of Calif 3.91% Source: Hinderliter de Llamas and Associates

14 Sales Tax Revenues Second Quarter 2014 Source: Hinderliter de Llamas and Associates

15 General Fund Performance Through 25% of Fiscal Year General Fund Tax Revenues Budget Current Fiscal Year YTD Collected % Budget Prior Year Comparison YTD Collected % Budget Taxes Property Tax* $ 10,878,600 $ 143, % $ 141, % Sales Tax 11,746, , % 698, % Prop L 7,846, , % 759, % Other Taxes 2,940,700 63, % 67, % Taxes received thru 9/30/14 33,412,700 1,606, % 1,668, % *Property Tax includes former tax increment revenue received as a result of the dissolution of redevelopment The majority of property tax revenues are received in December and April and are generally minimal in the first quarter Sales tax revenues (both City and Prop L) are within budgetary expectations for the first quarter Prior Year Prop L revenues include advances previously diverted to the City of Filmore and are not being received in current year

16 General Fund Performance, cont. General Fund Expenditures Through 25% of Fiscal Year Budget 1 YTD Expended 2 % of Budget General Fund Department Expenditures Police $ 15,559,280 $ 3,784, % Fire 9,026,920 2,353, % Public Works 7,806,600 1,320, % Administrative Services 5,088, , % Community Development 1,601, , % Community Services 1,710, , % Total General Fund Expenditures $ 40,792,960 $ 9,115, % 1 Budget reflects any amendments approved by the City Council through the end of the quarter 2 Includes expenditures encumbered through end of quarter reported Expenditures are slightly below budgetary expectations through the end of the first quarter

17 General Fund Performance, cont. Reserves Ending reserves for Fiscal Year were slightly higher than estimated in the Mid-Biennium Budget Update; reflected in the Ending Reserves for FY Actuals Budget FY FY FY FY FY Ending Reserves 11,111,675 11,519,459 14,495,701 20,531,305 20,590,515 Reserves as % of Operating Expenditures 31.9% 29.4% 36.0% 53.3% 50.5% Reserves: Property Sale (Police Station) 2,300,000 3,050,000 3,050,000 3,050,000 3,050,000 Property Sale (Other land) 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000 Proposition L Revenues 4,811,675 4,469,459 7,445,701 7,982,194 7,618,810 Reserves from Operations ,499,111 5,921,705 Total Ending General Fund Reserves 11,111,675 11,519,459 14,495,701 20,531,305 20,590,515

18 Proposition L Benchmarks Vital Services and Future Fiscal Challenges Structural Budget Gap: Revenue received from Proposition L sales taxes fill the structural gap between ongoing revenues and expenditures Reserve Funding Levels: Revenues received from Proposition L sales taxes are used to maintain the General Fund reserves Updated Benchmarks reflecting the Budget are updated and posted on the City website

19 Budget Monitoring Report Quarter Ending September 30, 2014 Questions/Comments

Budget Monitoring Report Quarter ending June 30, 2018

Budget Monitoring Report Quarter ending June 30, 2018 Economic Outlook National Economy The economy continued the same solid growth experienced over the past year through the current quarter Economic indicators