FY15 Economic Review

Transcription

1 Graduate School USA, Pacific & Virgin Islands Training Initiatives w w w. e c o n m a p. o r g FY15 Economic Review JEMCO-JEMFAC, August 22,

2 Presentation Outline FY2015 ECONOMIC REVIEW I. II. III. IV. V. Introduction & Scope Statistical Program Economic Performance Policy Review Compact Trust Funds 2

3 Program Introduction GRADUATE SCHOOL USA PROGRAM OVERVIEW Overview of the Graduate School USA & Pacific Islands Training Initiative Overview of Other Initiatives Island Government Finance Officers Association (IGFOA) Association of Pacific Island Public Auditors (APIPA) Executive Leadership Development Program (ELDP) Economic Monitoring and Analysis Program (EconMAP) Primary Purpose Today FY15 Economic Update + Recent Policy Developments (+ Palau where relevant) Team Introductions 3

4 Program Introduction EXECUTIVE LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Junior Paul RMI Eduction Anjanette Kattil RMI Foreign Affairs Shem Livai MEC Crystal Sana-Ekichy FSMDB-Chuuk Elina Paul FSM OEEM Heidi Sigrah Kosrae DREA Joseph Saimon Pohnpei COS Lover Haimin FSMDB-National Jonathan Chugen Yap AG 4

5 Presentation Outline FY2015 ECONOMIC REVIEW I. II. III. IV. V. Introduction & Scope Statistical Program Economic Performance Policy Review Compact Trust Funds 5

6 STATISTICS EconMAP STATISTICAL PROGRAM PRIMARY & SECONDARY OBJECTIVES Primary Objective: Economic Statistics Ensure annual economic statistics available for monitoring and analysis Capacity Supplementation: Ensure the Job Gets Done Expand Statistical Base Why? Facilitate expanded Analysis and Forecasting Secondary Objective: Capacity Development. Within GS/and Local Resource Constraints / If Good Return on Investment 6

7 STATISTICS EconMAP STATISTICAL PROGRAM KEY ECONOMIC STATISTICS Government Finances National Accounts GDP Production, GDP Expenditure, GDP Income / GNI/ GNDI Employment numbers and earnings External Sector: Balance of Payments / External Debt / Trade Country specific needs Tourism (Palau), Public Enterprises (RMI), Fisheries (FSM/RMI) Migration / demographics 7

8 STATISTICS EconMAP STATISTICAL PROGRAM STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENTS SINCE PALAU FSM RMI GDP Income GDP Income GDP Income Employment /Wages GDP Production Employment /Wages GDP Production Employment /Wages GDP Production Government Finance Statistics GDP Expenditure Government Finance Statistics GDP Expenditure Government Finance Statistics GDP Expenditure Balance of Payments Gross National Income Balance of Payments Gross National Income Balance of Payments Gross National Income 8

9 STATISTICS EconMAP STATISTICAL PROGRAM STATISTICAL REQUIREMENTS Key Administrative Data Sources Gross Revenue Tax Social Security Government Finance Systems Audits Customs [Palau = very strong; FSM/RMI = weaker] Supplemental Surveys / Direct Data Consumer Prices Targeted Collections to Cover Gaps Local Statistics Staff Small Offices Mixed/Limited Capacity Turnover & Continuity Risks 9

10 STATISTICS EconMAP STATISTICAL PROGRAM STATISTICAL CHALLENGES Replacement of Administrative Data Systems Collapses in Administrative data systems Staff Departures from Very Small Offices Expectations: Aspirations vs Reality Migration Data: Key Economic Indicator, but No Data after FY12 10

11 Presentation Outline FY2015 ECONOMIC REVIEW I. II. III. IV. V. Introduction & Scope Statistical Program Economic Performance Policy Review Compact Trust Funds 11

12 us$ millions ECONOMICS Gross Domestic Product 2004 CONSTANT PRICES FSM -0.3% PALAU 1.0% RMI 1.1%

13 us $dollars ECONOMICS Gross Domestic Product PER CAPITA $12, % $10,000 PALAU $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 RMI FSM $0 13

14 us $dollars ECONOMICS Gross Domestic Product PER CAPITA (FSM STATES) $4,000 $3,500 YAP $3,000 POHNPEI $2,500 $2, % KOSRAE $1, % CHUUK $1,000 14

15 number of visitors ECONOMICS Tourism VISITOR ARRIVALS 180, , ,000 visitors PALAU 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 FSM 11,682 visitors RMI 6,311 visitors 0 15

16 ECONOMICS Economic Transformation SHARE OF TRADED GOODS PRODUCTION IN GDP 25% PALAU 20% 15% 10% FSM RMI 5% 0% 16

17 ECONOMICS Net Migration FY04 TO FY12 0.0% FSM RMI ROP -0.5% -1.0% Annual Average -1.6% -1.5% -15,197-7,148-2, % 17

18 number of employees ECONOMICS Employment PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYMENT 10,000 9,000 FSM 8,000 7, % 6,000 5,000 4,000 RMI 1.7% 3,000 18

19 ECONOMICS Employment PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT 8,000 7,000 6,000 FSM -0.5% 5,000 4,000 RMI 0.3% 3,000 2,000 19

20 ECONOMICS Real and Nominal Wage Rates FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA $12,000 NOMINAL 2.1% $10,000 Public Sector $8,000 REAL -1.6% $6,000 $4,000 Private Sector NOMINAL REAL 2.1% -1.6% $2,000 $0 20

21 Wage Rates (US$) ECONOMICS Real and Nominal Wage Rates REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS Public Sector NOMINAL 1.2% REAL -2.0% 6000 Private Sector NOMINAL 2.1% 4000 REAL -1.1%

22 us$ millions ECONOMICS FSM Fiscal Balance REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES expenditures $9m surplus 2.8% GDP $33m surplus 10.5% GDP revenues

23 us$ millions ECONOMICS 130 RMI Fiscal Balance REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES RMI FY15 Audit Overdue expenditures revenues

24 percent gdp ECONOMICS Tax Effort TAXES AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP RMI FY15 Audit Overdue 25% 20% RMI $20m extraordinary COLLECTION 15% FSM 10% 5% 0% 24

25 percent gdp ECONOMICS Expenditures to GDP EXEPENDITURES AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP RMI FY15 Audit Overdue 90% 80% 70% 60% FSM 50% 40% RMI 30% 20% 10% 0% 25

26 us$ millions ECONOMICS Fishing Fees FSM, RMI AND PALAU $70 $60 FSM $65m $50 $40 $30 $20 RMI $24m $10 $0 Palau $8m 26

27 percent of gdp ECONOMICS 80% Outstanding Debt DEBT AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP RMI FY15 Audit Overdue 70% RMI 60% 50% 50% 40% Palau 30% 20% FSM 10% 0% 27

28 ECONOMICS External Grants EXTERNAL GRANTS AS A SHARE OF EXPENDITURES (FY15) 70% 60% 50% 52% 56% 66% IN FY12 When FSM Infrastructure Grant was Flowing and FAA Projects were Active 40% 43% 30% 20% 10% 0% Palau FSM RMI 28

29 us $millions ECONOMICS FSM Revenues FSM NATIONAL GOVERNMENT & FSM STATES DOMESTIC REVENUES $100 $90 $80 FY14 + $20m extraordinary collection $90m $70 $60 $50 $40 $30m $20 $10 FSM NATL GOVT FSM STATES COMBINED $27m $0 29

30 real gdp per capita ECONOMICS Growth Scenarios FSM ACTUAL VS DISMAL SCENARIO (REAL GDP PER CAPITA) $3,000 $2,900 Actual Performance 0.9% growth $2,800 $2,700 RMI $2,600 $2,500 $2,400 $2,300 $2,200 FSM Dismal scenario Based on 0.3% growth Actual Performance -0.3% growth $2,100 30

31 Presentation Outline FY2015 ECONOMIC REVIEW I. II. III. IV. V. Introduction & Scope Statistical Program Economic Performance Policy Review Compact Trust Funds 31

32 POLICY Compact Policy Assessment MACRO POLICY ASSESSMENT Fiscal Policy FSM RMI Fiscal Balance Long-Term Fiscal Adjustment (Decrement Management/LTFF) Public Sector Payroll & Wage Policy Tax Reform External Debt Social Security Macroeconomic Monitoring 32

33 POLICY Compact Policy Assessment PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Public Financial Management FSM RMI Financial Accountability Medium-Term Framework Public Expenditure & Financial Accountability Strategic Development Plan Performance Management Information Systems 33

34 POLICY Compact Policy Assessment STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES & REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT State-Owned Enterprises FSM RMI Subsidies Divestment Operating under Full Cost Recovery SOE Policy Regulatory Environment FSM RMI Foreign Direct Investment Land Reform Doing business Survey (of 189 ranked countries) #148 #140 34

35 POLICY Emerging Policy Issues RMI MINISTRY OF FINANCE RISK ASSESSMENT Three High-Risk Areas Identified: Management deficiencies, staff turnover/vacancies, and staff morale. Compelling need to ensure a robust and rigorous FMIS acquisition process Slipping deadlines for completion of the single audit 35

36 POLICY Emerging Policy Issues RMI DECREMENT MANAGEMENT PLANNING Participatory process Operating expenditure constraint strengthened Compliance is not full Next three-year cycle of great importance 36

37 POLICY Emerging Policy Issues DONOR PROGRAM EXPANSION IN THE RMI Growing on All Fronts World Bank Asian Development Bank European Union Capacity Constraints Creating Bottlenecks Donor Coordination More Important than Ever 37

38 POLICY Emerging Policy Issues FOR THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA Ongoing National/State Fiscal Disparities States: LTFF Implementation Requires Update/Reset (ex. KSA) National: Sovereign Rent/Wealth Management Opportunities Need for FSM Consensus to Prepare for Post-FY2023 Donor Program Expansion Donors Expressing Need for Coordination Infrastructure delays This is chronic not emerging 38

39 Presentation Outline FY2015 ECONOMIC REVIEW I. II. III. IV. V. Introduction & Scope Statistical Program Economic Performance Policy Review Compact Trust Funds 39

40 Us $millions TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds ACTUAL VALUE, PROJECTED VALUE & NOTIONAL TARGETS $2,800 $2.79b SAFER sustainability est $2,400 $2,000 $1.67b PRIMARY TARGET $1,600 $1,200 $800 $397m actual value 9/30/15 $974m PROJECTED VALUE FY % of SIMPLE EST 35% of SAFER EST $400 $0 40

41 TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION AT END OF FY2023 Median Value: $974 m Primary Target: $1.67 b 6% probability ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 41

42 TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds TRUST FUND SIMULATION RESULTS MEDIAN Value at FY23 $974 m Probability of a ZERO DISTRIBUTION Year between FY24 and FY % 42

43 TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds SCORING THE SIMULATIONS Performance Measures COFA SAFER +FSM +2 yrs % cases where CTF value > Primary Target in FY % 58.4% 73.2% 83.5% % cases where real CTF in FY50 is > real CTF in FY % 80.6% 83.1% 86.2% Average distribution FY24-FY50 % target 70.4% 52.3% 93.4% 97.3% Probability of attaining target distribution in FY % 29.6% 73.4% 85.3% Probability of zero distribution FY24 to FY % 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% % Variance between FY49 and FY50 dist levels 25.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% Overall Performance Rating 39.5% 69.6% 87.1% 92.0% 43

44 us $millions TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds ACTUAL VALUE, PROJECTED VALUE & NOTIONAL TARGETS $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $905m SAFER sustainability est $637m PROJECTED VALUE FY % of SIMPLE EST $600 $500 $400 $247m actual value 9/30/15 $543m primary target $300 $200 $100 $0 44

45 TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION AT END OF FY2023 Primary Target: $551 m 70% probability Median Value: $637 m 50% probability ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 45

46 TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds TRUST FUND SIMULATION RESULTS MEDIAN Value at FY23 $637 m Probability of a ZERO DISTRIBUTION Year between FY24 and FY % 46

47 TRUST FUND Compact Trust Funds SCORING THE SIMULATIONS Performance Measures COFA Safer +RMI +2 yrs % cases where CTF value > Primary Target in FY % 85.2% 89.0% 93.7% % cases where real CTF in FY50 is > real CTF in FY % 82.3% 85.2% 88.4% Average distribution FY24-FY50 % target 79.5% 66.5% 83.2% 92.3% Probability of attaining target distribution in FY % 83.0% 95.7% 98.5% Probability of zero distribution FY24 to FY % 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% % Variance between FY49 and FY50 dist levels 12.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% Overall Performance Rating 76.3% 86.0% 92.1% 95.4% 47

48 Graduate School USA, Pacific & Virgin Islands Training Initiatives w w w. e c o n m a p. o r g Questions or Comments? JEMCO-JEMFAC, August