Značenje izvoza za razvoj i rast gospodarstva u krizi
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1 Značenje izvoza za razvoj i rast gospodarstva u krizi Mladen Vedriš, Ph.D., Professor Predstojnik Katedre za ekonomske znanosti Pravni fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu Međunarodna konferencija : Izvoz motor razvoja: sajamska industrija u funkciji rasta izvoza i internacionalizacije poslovanja Zagreb,
2 Prije krize, hrvatski rast je zaostajao za rezultatima zemalja u tranziciji Godišnja stopa rasta, prosjek % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% SVK ROU BGR EST BIH SRB CZE POL SVN HRV HUN Izvor: MMF, Baza podataka Svjetski gospodarski izgledi Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
3 Dotok FDI-a u Hrvatsku je blizu prosjeka SIE/JIE... 25% Dotok FDI-a kao % BDP-a, prosjek % 15% 10% 5% 0% MNE BGR EST SVK SRB ROU HRV MKD CZE BIH HUN POL SVN Izvor: UNCTADstat Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
4 25...ali Hrvatska ima razmjerno malo greenfield ulaganja... Broj FDI-a u greenfield projekte na milijun stanovnika Izvor: fdi Markets Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
5 ...i dvije trećine FDI-a u Hrvatskoj traži tržište usprkos tome što je hrvatsko tržište malo Financijske usluge, osiguranje i mirovinski fondovi Trgovina na veliko i malo Pošta i telekomunikacije Ostale uslužne djelatnosti Poslovanje nekretninama Hoteli i Restorani Proizvodnjja ostalih nemetalnih mineralnih proizvoda Vađenje nafte i zemnog plina Proizvodnja koksa i naftnih derivata Proizvodnja kemikalija Izvor: HNB Ostala proizvodnja Ostale djelatnosti Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
6 Izvozni rezultati su... za pretpostaviti 12% Prosječan rast izvoza, % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Slovak Hungary Romania Poland Bulgaria Czech Slovenia Estonia Austria Croatia Republic Republic Izvor: MMF, Baza podataka Svjetski gospodarski izgledi Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
7 Izvoz po glavi stanovnika HR 100 Slovenija 437 Češka 351 Slovačka 293 Mađarska 275 Prema CIA World Factbook 7
8 Udjel proizvoda visoke tehnologije u ukupnom izvozu Hrvatska je (još uvijek) dobro rangirana u odnosu na usporediva tranzicijska gospodarstva obzirom na visok udio izvoza visoke tehnologije u ukupnom izvozu proizvoda 35,00 30,00 Tranzicijske zemlje Ostale zemlje ,00 20,00 15,00 10,00 5,00 0,00 Macedonia, FYR United Arab Emirates Bosnia and Herzegovina Ukraine Poland Romania India Slovenia Spain Slovak Republic South Africa Albania Bulgaria Chile Italy Russian Federation Latvia Argentina Belgium Portugal Luxembourg Croatia Greece New Zealand Lithuania Indonesia Australia Austria Brazil Israel Canada Estonia Czech Republic Germany Sweden Denmark Norway Japan France Finland Switzerland United Kingdom Hungary Netherlands, The United States China Ireland Korea, Rep. Izvor: Pokazatelji svjetskog razvoja (World Development Indicators) Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
9 European workers are less mobile Figure 15: Europeans are less mobile, even within their own countries (labor mobility, share of working-age population that has moved, ) Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
10 Ali... Hrvatska je među zemljama koje bilježe najveći gubitak visoko kvalificiranih stručnjaka Stopa iseljavanja visoko obrazovanog stanovništva u zemlje OECD-a 35,0 22,6 19,9 15, / ,7 10,3 9,7 9,5 9,2 7,2 3,9 0 OECD (2012), Povezivanje s iseljenicima: Globalni profil dijaspora, Publikacije OECD-a Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
11 Radno aktivno stanovništvo Izvor: Prema Eurostat i HGK, preuzeto iz Hrvatsko gospodarstvo godine, Hrvatska gospodarska komora, str
12 Struktura javne potrošnje: SAD, Europa, ostatak svijeta (general government spending on defense [United States] and social protection [Europe], , share of total world spending) Government expenditure percentage of world total Military (n=124) 2010 Social protection (n=96) Rest of the world 57% United States 43% Rest of the world 42% Europe (n=36) 58% Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
13 13
14 National Competitiveness Why and How? In the modern global economy prosperity is a national choice. M. E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations 14
15 Imperatives, strengths and weaknesses Government Labor Demographic Trends Innovation Enterprise Productivity Growth Finance Trade Modern Services 15
16 Global Competitiveness : Top 10 countries Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , WEF,
17 Transition countries reference countries Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , WEF,
18 The new economic order in the world Source: A Third Industrial Revolution - Special Report: Manufacturing and innovation /Back to making stuff/, The Economist, April 21st, 2012, p
19 19
20 Manufacturing - New Concept Mr. Obama has put the promotion of an industrial revival at the heart of his economic platform, recently backing targeted tax incentives to spur the domestic manufacturing base. Source: S. Kirchgaessner: Corporates and candidates, Financial Times/ Analysis, August 3, 2012, p. 7 20
21 Doing business is now most difficult in the EU15 South Figure 9: Southern and Eastern Europe must make it easier to do business (principal components index of the ease of doing business in 2011, scaled from 0 [poor] to 100 [excellent]) 57.4 CRO Source: June
22 Hrvatska ima razmjerno visoke plaće u usporedbi s drugim zemljama u tranziciji Taj nedostatak je djelomično kompenziran visokom razinom produktivnosti, no i nakon korekcije za produktivnost cjenovna konkurentnost je još uvijek nedostatna Izvor: Eurostat i HNB (2012.) Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače
23 Rješenja postoje, ali.. Do it now concept... 23
24 Rezultati OECD-ovog istraživanja 2012 Brzorastuće male i srednje tvrtke još su suočene sa znatnim preprekama u poslovanju Izvor: prema: Alan Paić (OECD): Novi zamah hrvatske konkurentnosti, konferencija: Međunarodna konkurentnost i poslovna privlačnost Hrvatske, HNB, Zagreb,15. veljače Relativno rangiranje problema mjereno prema srednjem rezultatu. Najozbiljniji problem je na rangiran pod 1, a najmanji pod 14. Rangiranje u Korupcija 1 Pristup financiranju 2 Porezne stope 3 Sudovi 4 Vještine i obrazovanje radnika Električna energija 6 Carinski i trgovinski propisi 7 Radni propisi 8 Porezna uprava 9 Kriminalitet, krađe i neredi 10 Prijevoz 11 Poslovne licence i dozvole 12 Pristup zemljištu 13 Izvor: BEEPS. Telekomunikacije Europska banka za obnovu i razvoj 14 i Svjetska banka,
25 Što Hrvatska može i mora učiniti Gospodarski rezultati tijekom tranzicije su nezadovoljavajući... dijelom iz razloga što uspješna tržišna ekonomija nije, suprotno onome što neki govore, jednostavno rezultat puštanja kapitalizma da se dogodi niti nešto što nastaje spontano iz zraka. Olson, M.: Why is economic performance even worse when communism is abolished?, Special Features Service 111, The U.S. Economy and the World, P/PMX/Astor, Washington 1993, str. 3 25
26 Hrvatska može i mora vidljivom i inteligentnom ulogom države potpomagati i usmjeravati ekonomski razvoj Jučer: to je još bio mogući vlastiti izbor Ulaskom u EU: jedina realna mogućnost 26
27 EU STRATEGIJA
28 Reforms & Adaptation Advanced economies Transition societies 4 : 1 28
29 Cluster-Based Policy Implementation Management Training Education and Workforce Training Science and Technology Investments (e.g., centers, university departments, technology transfer) Business Attraction Export Promotion Clusters Standard setting and quality initiatives Environmental Stewardship Market Information and Disclosure Physical Infrastructure Natural Resource Protection Clusters provide a framework for implementing public policy and organizing public-private collaboration to enhance competitiveness 29 29
30 Robna razmjena RH s inozemstvom Izvor: RBA istraživanja, 12.pdf 30
31 HRVATSKA - Mogućnosti Korištenje rezervi rasta Čuvanje makroekonomske stabilnosti ostaje preduvjet podrazumijeva stabilne javne financije Povećanje razine zaposlenosti: Reforme tržišta rada i obrazovanja Podizanje produktivnosti: Efikasnost i investicijska klima Produbljivanje trgovinskih integracija: FDI i izvozna dobra Poticanje inovacija: Komercijalizacija i korištenje znanja Izvor: World Bank presentation: Gospodarska kretanja i kako ubrzati održivi oporavak u Hrvatskoj, Zagreb,
32 Čak i kada ste na pravom putu, propast ćete ako samo stojite. W. Rogers 32
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