Ralentissement dans les BRIC: faut-il s en inquiéter?
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1 Ralentissement dans les BRIC: faut-il s en inquiéter? Présentation : Andrea Goldstein, Economiste à l OCDE Mercredi 18 décembre 213, 18 rue de Martignac Paris
2 The BRICs in the International Investment Landscape Andrea Goldstein Club du CEPII 18 décembre 213
3 FDI in the Current Globalization Wave (1994 = 1) GDP trade (exports) FDI (inflows) FDI (outflows) Sources: UNCTAD, World Bank, WTO
4 The BRICs in the Current Globalization Wave (1994 = 1) GDP trade (exports) FDI (inflows) FDI (outflows) Sources: UNCTAD, World Bank, WTO
5 The BRICs in the Global Investment Landscape: As Destinations (US$ bn) Brazil Russia India China Source: UNCTAD
6 The BRICs in the Global Investment Landscape: As Sources (US$ bn) Brazil Russia India China (2) Source: UNCTAD
7 BRIC Big Business: Irresistible Growth (number of entries among the world s 5 largest companies, by turnover) Brazil Russia India China Source: Fortune
8 although not so global (value of the Trans-nationality Index) TNI 2 1 World Emerging economies BRIC Brazil Russia India China Source: elaboration on UNCTAD data
9 including SOEs FG5 rank COMPANY NAME Country Industry FA/TA% FR/TR% 1 5 Sinopec Group China Petroleum Refining 1 na 2 6 China National Petroleum China Petroleum Refining State Grid China Utilities 4 13 Japan Post Holdings Japan Mail, Package, and Freight Delivery 5 15 Gazprom Russia Energy na 6 23 Petrobras Brazil Petroleum Refining Pemex Mexico Mining, Crude-Oil Production Statoil Norway Petroleum Refining Petronas Malaysia Petroleum Refining Électricité de France France Utilities China Mobile Communications China Telecommunications Indian Oil India Petroleum Refining na China National Offshore Oil China Mining, Crude-Oil Production China Railway Construction China Engineering, Construction China Railway Group China Engineering, Construction U.S. Postal Service United States Mail, Package, and Freight Delivery Rosneft Oil Russia Petroleum Refining Deutsche Bahn Germany Railroads Baosteel Group China Metals China Telecommunications China Telecommunications Average: 1 23 Non-OECD average: OECD average: Source: OECD elaboration on Company annual reports, Fortune Global
10 Outward IM&A profiles, All countries listed non-listed SOE non-listed SOE listed Source: OECD elaboration on Datastream.
11 Outward IM&A profiles in 212: Brazil and China vs. France and Norway Brazil China listed nonlisted SOE listed SOE nonlisted listed non-listed SOE listed SOE nonlisted France Norway listed non-listed SOE listed SOE nonlisted listed nonlisted SOE listed SOE nonlisted Source: OECD elaboration on Datastream.
12 Inward IM&A profiles, All countries listed non-listed SOE non-listed SOE listed Source: OECD elaboration on Datastream.
13 Inward IM&A profiles of six countries, 212 Australia Canada China listed non-listed SOE nonlisted SOE listed listed non-listed SOE nonlisted SOE listed listed non-listed SOE nonlisted SOE listed Norway United States India listed non-listed SOE nonlisted SOE listed listed non-listed SOE nonlisted SOE listed listed nonlisted SOE nonlisted SOE listed Source: OECD elaboration on Datastream.
14 Total number of IIAs concluded per year in comparison with IIAs with an explicit reference to SOE in definition of investor 1% 12 9% 1 8% 7% 8 6% 6 5% 4% 4 3% 2 2% 1% % Number of treaties which have no express reference to SOE Number of treaties which have express reference to SOE Percentage of IIAs with reference to SOE in total treaties concluded in a given year Source: OECD survey of 1,814 Bilateral Investment Agreements.
15 Sources: Transparency International and World Bank Note: Since 213, all Doing Business rankings have been recalculated to reflect changes to the methodology and revisions of data due to new information. Has business life in the BRICs become harder? Ease of Doing Business Corruption Perceptions Ranking 27 Ranking 214 Score 25 Score 214 Brazil Russia India China
16 213 Investment Climate Statements While Brazil is generally considered a friendly environment for foreign investment, complex tax and regulatory requirements exist. In most cases, these impediments apply without discrimination to both foreign and domestic firms. investing in the Russian market still requires that firms navigate a complicated and fluid set of challenges ranging from complex and burdensome regulatory processes to corruption that marks both political and judicial structures. India underperforms its vast potential. Major areas of concern include rampant corruption, complex and lengthy investment and business approval processes, antiquated land acquisition and labor laws, and poor contract enforcement. India s historical preference for economic self-sufficiency informs current and proposed industrial and trade policies that protect domestic manufacturing, agriculture, and other sectors. Foreign investors often temper their optimism regarding potential investment returns with uncertainty about China's willingness to offer a level playing field vis-à-vis domestic competitors. In addition, foreign investors report a range of challenges related to current investment climate. These include industrial policies that protect and promote SOEs and other domestic firms, equity caps and other restrictions on foreign ownership, weak IPR protection, a lack of transparency, corruption, and an unreliable legal system. Source: US State Department, Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs
17 212 OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index Closed = 1; Open = China Saudi Arabia Indonesia Jordan India Japan New Zealand Mexico Malaysia Tunisia Russia Iceland Canada Mongolia Kazakhstan Korea Australia Israel Ukraine Peru Austria United States Brazil Switzerland Kyrgyz Republic Norway Turkey Denmark Poland Chile Morocco Latvia Egypt United Kingdom Sweden Czech Republic South Africa Italy Hungary Slovak Republic France Ireland Lithuania Belgium Greece Argentina Colombia Germany Estonia Spain Finland Netherlands Romania Slovenia Portugal Luxembourg OECD average Average of adherent countries NON-OECD average Source: Mistura and Thomsen (214
18 Top reformers according to the OECD FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index FDI Reform (difference in scores between 1997 and 21) Top reformers ranked from left to right Source: Mistura and Thomsen (214
19 Insular capitalisms (board composition, N = 634) Domestic Continental Other OECD Emerging OECD US -zone JP CN RU non-eu UK MX BR
20 Insular capitalisms
21 Richard Matzke Mark Mobius Guglielmo Moscato Ivan Pictet Board of Directors elected at the Annual General Shareholders Meeting on June 27, 213
22 Male capitalism EU US M W M W BRICKVM JP M W M W
23 although the winner is
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