Implementing the Contractual Forbearance & ASR Examples

Transcription

1 Implementing the Contractual Forbearance & ASR Examples Patrick Shriver Water Resources / Project Coordinator June 17, 2014 HCP ASR Sub Workgroup

2 Outline Purpose Contract Visual Aid Notices SAWS Implementation Store regional water Forbear pumping Calculations/Examples Page 2

3 Purpose Provide understanding of the ASR for springflow protection: Contractual agreement to how SAWS implements the forbearance commitment Provide understanding of the various triggers Page 3

4 Contract Visual Aid No No Definition or Purpose are info. only Sec 1 & 2 DOR Sec 3 Yes DORF Sec 4 Yes Administration of Forbearance Administration of HCP Cost Sec 5 Sec 6 Sec 7 Staff WG & Reg. Advisory Comm. Sec 8 & 9 Annual Report Legal Sec 10 Sec 11 Page 4

5 SAWS Implementation Notice to STORE regional water Flow meter a proxy SAWS invoices EAA/EAHCP Currently $37 per AF for storage / $110 per AF for recovery EAA provides a notice of drought proof available water for SAWS to store 1 st half year must store or credit; SAWS compelled to store 2 nd half of year SAWS discretion EAA/GM issues notice of suspension; SAWS reports stored status for that year. If suspension lifted all activities at SAWS discretion Forbearance contingent on accumulated amount of regional stored and credited water Page 5

6 SAWS Implementation Notice to FORBEAR pumping Notice of Drought of Record (DOR) Yes/No? Reached the <500,000 AF 10 year rolling recharge average Current 10 year recharge average 714,940 AF (2013: 763,570 AF) Notice of Drought of Record Forbearance Yes/No? In DOR and <630 msl. at J 17 Index well SAWS must forbear Presumptive schedule Custom schedule (max. 5years; max. 7,500 AF) Within contractual limitations 126,000 AF decadal total 46,300 AF max. year Accumulated amount of regional water stored Page 6

7 Locations / Examples Distribution link to Twin Oaks ASR Facilities Page 7

8 June 17, 2014 Locations / Examples Artesia Pump Station 703 Coliseum Road Page 8

9 Example Visual Forbearance Edwards wells identified in the contract baseline move up to ~90 MGD through N.E. service area pump stations annually Three bracketed examples: Notice to forbear 7,500 AF Notice to forbear 30,000 AF (Artesia, Randolph & Seale) Notice to forbear maximum amount 46,300 (involves additional locations) 33 wells managed 9 wells for primary response 24 additional wells treated as a block Edwards Water HCP Forbearance Artesia Advanced 8 MGD Conservation Edwards Water Edwards Water HCP Forbearance Randolph 16.5 MGD Edwards Water Edwards HCP Forbearance Water Diversified Other N.E. Supply Service Area Locations Edwards ~60 MGD Water Edwards Water HCP Forbearance Seale 6.5 MGD Edwards Water Page 9

10 Calculations / Examples 2013 Forbearance w/artesia focus Artesia (3 wells) Average 7.6 MGD Currently all the water is SAWS stored Click for math Artesia, Randolph, Seale and all other N.E. area Summer 2013 pace to forbear ~40,000 AF + Annual Total Permit Compliance & Forbearance criteria Acre-Feet Artesia 8,935 AF Total Basline 8,935 Basline 8/31/13 5,745 Edwards Pumped 90 Forborne 5,655 Baseline (Daily AF) Acutal (AF) Poly. (Baseline (Daily AF)) Page 10

11 Understanding the Various Triggers 10 Year Rolling Average of Recharge Why the EARIP SAWS ASR Workgroup selected the indicator: RECON s analysis of Monte Carlo simulations of rainfall region wide, rather than at single gage Statistics backed the 10 year average for the Drought of Record. Truly identified the time when ASR needed most Workgroup concern about using ASR water too early in a drought Page 11

12 Understanding the Various Triggers Tiered Leases Three tiers 16,667 acre feet Tier 1 Available at all times, net cutbacks Tier 2 Triggered by 10 year rolling average of recharge less than 572,000 acre feet Tiers 1 and 2 provide opportunities to fill ASR during long term drought episodes in preparation for forbearance. Tier 3 Triggered by 10 year rolling average of recharge less than 472,000 acre feet Generally forbearance, may be used to refill ASR (pending SAWS storage plans) SAWS Edwards acquisitions goals were self limited to accommodate this 50,000 acre feet Page 12

13 Understanding the Various Triggers Tiered Leases (Continued) Reasoning Maximize beneficial use of the Aquifer Diverse users irrigation Only divert from beneficial use to springflow protection during extreme drought During wet periods, the ASR would be filled mainly with SAWS water, used in early drought years. During extreme droughts, the balance would shift to regional HCP water. The Interlocal Contract has changed this understanding, however Contract provides a maximum of 95,000 acre feet of forbearance would be made in the three worst years of the Drought of Record Page 13

14 Understanding the Various Triggers J 17 less than 630, Rolling Recharge less than 572,000 J 17 in Stage 4 during a drought of record Stage Five was meant as an emergency, lastditch effort. This is how the Bottom Up Package was layered in MODFLOW. EAA Board has adopted rules that could implement Stage 5 earlier than ASR would be triggered. Page 14

15 Implementing the Contractual Forbearance & ASR Examples Patrick Shriver Water Resources / Project Coordinator June 17, 2014 HCP ASR Sub Workgroup

16 Forbearance Schedule EXHIBIT E Presumptive Forbearance Schedulefor the DOR Forbearance Period June 17, 2014 MONTH OF DOR FORBEARANCE PERIOD FORBEARANCE AMOUNT ACRE-FEET PER MONTH 1 - June start (month in which a notice of commencement of 700 DOR Forbearance Period is issued) 2 -July 2, August 3, September 3, October 2, November 1, December January February March April May 2, June 3, July 5, August 5, September 5, October 4, November 3, December 2,300 Back to Slide 6 Page 16

17 Forbearance Schedule EXHIBIT E Presumptive Forbearance Schedulefor the DOR Forbearance Period (Cont.) 20 - January 1, February 1, March 1, April 2, May 3, June 5, July 5, August 5, September 5, October 5, November 4, December 3, January 3, February 3, March 2, April 2, May 1, June July August September October (month in which a notice of expiration of DOR Forbearance 200 Period becomes effective) Back to Slide 6 Page 17