State of the Automotive Finance Market Fourth Quarter 2013
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1 State of the Automotive Finance Market Fourth Quarter 2013 Melinda Zabritski Sr. Director, Experian Automotive Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. 1
2 Session overview Market overview Outstanding balances Delinquency Repo and charge-off Originations New and Used financing Lender and transaction types Loan characteristics Score ranges Category Vantage Score Super prime 740+ Prime Nonprime Subprime Deep subprime <550 2
3 INSERT PICTURE HERE Overall Automotive Finance Market Market overview and delinquency 3
4 Risk distribution of overall automotive portfolio How has the market been changing? Risk distribution of open loans YOY change in risk distribution % 38.1% % % 25.7% % 1.19% 1.51% % % 8.6% 11.3% 11.6% Deep Subprime Nonprime Prime Super subprime prime Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime % Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 4
5 Billions Billions Total automotive balance Who holds the open loans? Total outstanding loan balance YOY change loan balance $900 $79b $30 $27 $800 $700 $600 $500 $96 $157 $116 $178 $25 $20 $15 $21 $20 $400 $300 $210 $221 $10 $11 $200 $100 $256 $283 $5 $- Bank Captive Credit Union Finance $- Bank Captive Credit Union Finance/ Other YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 5
6 YOY change in loan balances Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 6
7 Recent automotive delinquency: 30 day delinquency How are delinquency rates changing? -3.8% Overall 9 bps decrease 5.61% % -3.5% % -10.2% 2.11% 2.78% % % 2.63% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 7
8 30-day delinquency (unit) rate by state AK = 1.47% HI = 2.27% Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 8
9 YOY change in 30-day delinquency loan rates Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 9
10 Billions Recent automotive delinquency: 30 day delinquency What s at risk? $20 Balance of 30-day delinquent loans $2b 6. Percentage of balances 30-days delinquent $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $5.0 $1.8 $5.9 $2.2 $4.8 $5.4 $4.4 $ Overall 4 bps increase 1.72% 2.27% 1.59% 2.44% 1.16% 1.26% 5.21% 5.07% 2.26% 2.22% $- Bank Captive Credit Union Finance 0. Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 10
11 Recent automotive delinquency: 60 day delinquency How are delinquency rates changing? 2.5% 0.8% 2. Overall flat 1.96% 1.98% 1.5% -9.8% % 0.66% 0.59% -4.9% 0.52% % 0.34% % 0.74% 0. Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 11
12 60-day delinquency by state AK = 0.41% HI = 0.62% Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 12
13 YOY change in 60-day delinquency rates Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 13
14 Millions Recent automotive delinquency: 60 day delinquency What s at risk? $5,000 Balance of 60-day delinquent loans $674m 1.8% Percentage of balances 60-days delinquent 1.71% $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $1,583 $407 $1,979 $546 $776 $875 $1,166 $1, % 1.4% 1.2% % 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.45% 3 bps increase 0.43% 0.37% % 0.31% 1.66% 0.55% 0.58% $- Bank Captive Credit Union Finance 0. Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 14
15 Recent delinquency: quarterly repossession How are repo rates changing? % 76.3% 2.5% Overall 19 bps increase % 1.61% % -4.9% 0.24% 0.23% -5.9% 0.36% 0.34% % 0.15% 42.8% 0.65% 0.46% 0. Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 15
16 Repossession rates by lender type How have the lenders rates changed? 0.52% % % % 0.34% 0.23% 0.15% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Bank Captive Credit Union Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 16
17 Repossession rates for finance companies How have finance companies changed? 2.59% 2.84% % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 17
18 Average charge-off amount How have charge-offs changed? $1,167 $10,000 $9,500 $9,526 $1,549 $1,243 $9,000 $8,500 $786 $8,360 $929 $8,772 $8,520 $8,000 $7,500 $7,000 $6,500 $6,832 $7,618 $6,388 $7,317 $7,223 $7,277 $6,000 $5,500 $5,000 Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total YOY Change Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 18
19 Average charge-off versus whole sale values How have charge-offs compared to vehicle values? $18,000 $16,929 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $11,307 $8,520 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $- Q Q Q Q Q Q Average charge-off amount KBB avg auction actual all MY KBB Avg auction C+5MY Source: Kelley Blue Book Automotive Insights; Experian Automotive 19
20 INSERT PICTURE HERE New and Used Originations Automotive financing in the fourth quarter
21 Automotive market by transaction type How are consumers purchasing vehicles? No lender on title Overall financing 5 45% 47.2% 46.5% % 13.58% % % 2 15% 17.9% 16.3% % 86.42% 1 2 5% 1 New Used Total Loan Total Lease Source: Experian Automotive 21
22 Share of total consumer finance units (loan and lease) 7% 6% 5% % % 4.61% 4.59% 52.8% of all financing 4% 3.58% 3.54% 3% 2% 1% 1.85% 1.72% 1.54% 1.49% 1.45% 1.36% 1.36% 1.12% % 0.91% 0.9 Source: Experian Automotive 22
23 Automotive market by transaction type How are consumers purchasing vehicles? Leasing by type New lease market share % % % % % 2 15% 24.79% 23.66% 23.13% 20.65% 20.3% 19.2% % 24.2% % Q Q Q New lease Used lease Share of new financing Share of all new Source: Experian Automotive 23
24 Top 10 new lessors Who s dominating in leasing? Share of new lease market 16% 14% 12% 14.2% 12.5% 11.6% 86% of all new leasing 1 9.6% 9.1% 8% 6% 7.3% 6.8% 5.9% 5.3% 4% 3.8% 2% TOYOTA FINANCIAL SERVICES AMERICAN HONDA FINANCE FORD MOTOR CREDIT NISSAN INFINITI FINANCIAL SERVICES ALLY HYUNDAI CAPITAL AMERICA VW CREDIT INC MERCEDES BENZ FINANCIAL BMW BANK OF NORTH AMERICA CCAP AUTO LEASE LTD Source: Experian Automotive 24
25 Average new lease credit scores How has leasing changed? 850 New lease credit distribution % 44.18% % 23.92% 18.49% 20.47% 9.52% 8.89% 1.87% 2.54% Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Source: Experian Automotive 25
26 Average score comparison on top new leased models Loan score Lease score Source: Experian Automotive 26
27 Average new lease characteristics What are the characteristics of leasing? Average monthly payment Term distribution $ % $435 $425 $426 $ $415 4 $ % $395 2 $ % $ % Source: Experian Automotive 27
28 Average payment comparison on top new leased models $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $416 $414 $427 $431 $420 $435 $413 $389 $349 $325 $334 $312 $329 $330 $337 $296 $287 $247 $611 $470 $100 $- Loan payment Lease payment Source: Experian Automotive 28
29 Market snapshot on vehicle loan financing What and where are consumers financing? Loans by vehicle type 10 Current +5 model year Used 62.48% New 37.52% % 48.9 Used financing by dealer type Independent Franchise % % YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 29
30 Average credit scores by vehicle type How has financing on vehicles changed? Q Q Q Q Q New Used YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 30
31 Quarterly financing for new vehicles How has credit changed for new financing? Risk distribution of new loans YOY change in new financing % % 44.32% -1.9% % 21.59% % % 20.32% 3.9% % % 10.81% 2.03% 2.96% Deep subprime Nonprime Super prime Subprime Prime -1-2 Deep subprime Subprime % Nonprime Prime Super prime -8.88% YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 31
32 Quarterly financing for used vehicles How has credit changed for used financing? Risk distribution of used loans 21.72% 19.49% 14.46% 17.71% 2.82% 25% 2 15% YOY change in used financing % % 23.23% 1 5% 5.07% % 21.94% % Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime % -1-15% -2 Deep subprime Subprime % Nonprime Prime Super prime % Prime Super prime -25% YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 32
33 Risk distribution by lender type How have the lenders shifted? Risk distribution of market share 5.5% 5.2% 5.9% 5.2% 34.7% 12.1% 28.3% 42.8% 14.7% % 23.5% 38.7% % 28.6% 51.5% 20.8% 36.2% 13.8% 12.6% 14.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.2% Bank BHPH Captive Credit Finance Union Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% -1% YOY change in outside of prime distribution 6.03% 0.69% Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Prime Super prime -1.37% -2% -1.47% -1.61% Source: Experian Automotive 33
34 Automotive finance by lender type What lender types are gaining share? Automotive loan market share New loan market share 4 35% 3 25% 38.06% 14.5% 2 15% 1 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 41.08% % 0.18% 41.26% 14.2% 2.1% 12.8 Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union 3.8% 4.68% Finance % 1 5% 8.57% -7.7% -6.7% 20.25% 18.78% 4.2% Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Market share 3.2% 14.34% Finance 5% -5% YOY change in share % 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 36.25% Market share YOY change in share Used loan market share 21.9% 22.37% 13.61% 7.64% 4.4% -7.9% -4.2% Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Market share 20.13% 2.2% Finance YOY change in share 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1 Source: Experian Automotive 34
35 Top 20 lenders by total loan (retail) market share Who gained or lost loan share? 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 9.5% 5.78% 0.3% 4.76% 4.58% 4.53% % % 3.8% 9.1% 3.56% 3.42% 14.3% 2.67% -27.8% 48.2% of New Financing -19.7% -3.1% -5.8% -10.9% % -14.5% 4.1% 1.67% 1.58% 1.56% % 1.21% 1.13% 1.05% 1.04% 1.03% 1.02% 0.97% % % -4-5 Q Total Loan Share YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive 35
36 Top 20 lenders by new loan (retail) market share Who gained or lost new loan share? 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 8.34% 8.18% 7.99% -7.6% % 9.9% 13.1% 15.5% 6.38% 6.31% 5.85% -3.4% -28.4% % 74.8% of New Financing 2.81% 2.52% -11.1% -9.6% 8.8% 1.91% 1.89% 1.86% 1.84% 1.71% 1.41% 1.39% 1.36% 1.27% 1.26% -48.9% -20.8% 34.5% -19.9% -10.7% -16.3% -19.5% -23.5% Q New Loan Share YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive 36
37 Top 20 lenders by used loan (retail) market share Who gained or lost used loan share? 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 6.83% 6.3% 5.3% 3.8% 5.2% 3.91% 3.81% 3.79% -9.7% -22.4% 2.24% % 3.5% -24.1% 37.7% of Used Financing -19.5% 2.3% -2.6% -0.6% 1.64% 1.53% 1.37% 1.23% 0.99% 0.98% 0.98% 0.98% 0.94% 0.93% 0.92% 0.85% 0.82% 0.78% -40.9% -5.4% -1.5% 8.2% -13.9% -17.2% Q Used Loan Market Share YOY change in share Source: Experian Automotive 37
38 Vehicle financing How has financing changed? $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 Average amount financed $739 $26,691 $27,430 $17,629 $345 $17,974 $30,000 $29,000 $28,000 $27,000 $26,000 $25,000 $24,000 $23,000 $22,000 $24,874 Average new amount financed $25,428 $26,563 Deep subprime $27,828 $29,385 $27,831 $27,854 $28,802 $25,936 $25,880 Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime $10,000 $5,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $14,408 Average used amount financed $14,410 $15,858 $16,368 $17,712 $18,384 $19,316 $19,367 $19,023 $19,354 $ New Used $5,000 $ Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 38
39 Loan-to-Value by lender type How do the lenders compare? Average LTV by lender YOY change in LTV (bps) % 128.6% 109.2% 108.8% 115.3% 135.8% 123.2% 152.4% 110.4% 133.8% Bank Captive Credit Union Average LTV new Finance Market Totals Average LTV used (50) (18) Bank Captive Credit Union Finance YOY change in new LTV YOY change in used LTV Market Totals Source: NADA Used Car Guides; Experian Automotive 39
40 Loan-to-Value by risk segment How do the risk segments compare? Average LTV by risk segment 149.2% % Deep subprime 142.3% Average LTV new 122.2% 136.8% 114.3% 129.9% 98.8% 116.9% Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Average LTV used (100) (200) (300) 301 YOY change in LTV (bps) 220 Deep subprime YOY change in new LTV Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime (208) (110) YOY change in used LTV Source: NADA Used Car Guides; Experian Automotive 40
41 Average loan payments How have payments changed? Average monthly payment Average new payment $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $460 $11 $471 $348 $4 $352 $510 $500 $490 $480 $470 $460 $450 $440 $430 $485 $496 $499 Deep subprime $480 $464 $487 $471 $459 $455 $456 Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime $250 $200 Average used payment $150 $100 $50 $ New Used $380 $370 $360 $350 $340 $330 $320 $310 $369 $372 Deep subprime $357 $366 $348 $337 $338 $340 $350 $346 Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 41
42 Average loan terms How have terms changed? Average loan term Average new term mo Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Average used term New Used Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 42
43 Distribution of loan term How have loan terms changed? 45% 4 New financing by term 41.2% % 2 45% 4 Used financing by term 23.2% % 2 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 1.3% -5.5% 4.5% 4.7% 28.5% -4.8% -3.9% 20.1% 15% 1 5% -5% 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 7.2% -5.8% 26.5% 12.7% % 3.9% 12.5% 15% 1 5% -5% % of new financing by term YOY change in term % of used financing by term YOY change in term Source: Experian Automotive 43
44 Average loan rate How have rates changed? 1 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Average loan rate 8.48% 1 bps 4.36% 4.37% 23 bps 8.71% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% % Deep subprime Average new rate 8.88% 8.81% 5.33% 5.32% 3.72% % 2.72% Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime 4% Average used rate 3% 2% 1% New Used 2 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 17.34% 18.14% Deep subprime 13.56% 14.04% 7.85% 8.13% 5.08% 5.12% 3.79% 3.52% Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime YOY Change Source: Experian Automotive 44
45 In summary Overall, open portfolios continuing to experience growth Steady delinquency behavior Financing for consumers continues to expand as consumers rely upon the lending market for vehicle purchase Leasing continues to grow with decreasing scores and growth in lower prime market Loan amounts and payments inching up with slight increases in rates Loan-to-value and terms continue to expand 45
46 2012 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 46
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