Unique insights on the consumer credit market

Transcription

1 Unique insights on the consumer credit market Highlights from the 2015 Experian Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. 1

2 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Introduction Today s Speakers: Linda Haran Senior Director Experian Decision Sciences Alan Ikemura Senior Product Manager Experian Decision Sciences 2

3 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report Agenda 2015 Economic Outlook Origination and Delinquency Trends Mortgage Home Equity Bankcard Automotive 3

4 Economic Trends 4

5 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Outlook Unemployment levels continue to decline, to 5.4% in March GDP increased nominally in the first quarter, by 0.2% Housing market continues to show improvements 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% US Gross Domestic Product Percent change from preceding period -10% 2Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q 5

6 Mortgage Trends 6

7 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Origination Trends Mortgage Mortgage origination volume (in $BNs) $600 $500 $400 YoY increase of 25% $300 $200 $100 $ $416 $407 $436 $508 $537 $515 $555 $441 $317 $253 $350 $386 $374 $316 7

8 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Origination Trends Mortgage $250 Origination volume by region (in $BNs) $200 $150 $100 $50 $ Midwest Northeast South Atlantic South Central West 8

9 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Delinquency Trends Mortgage Mortgage delinquency rates as % of balances 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%

10 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Delinquency Trends Mortgage 30+ delinquency exposure continues to decline while balances see steady increases 30+ dpd balance exposure (in $BNs) $600 $9.0 $8.8 $500 $8.6 $400 $8.4 $8.2 $300 $8.0 $7.8 $200 $7.6 $100 $7.4 $7.2 $ $ dpd Exposure Balances O/S 10

11 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Delinquency Trends Mortgage Vintage performance 30+ delinquency rates as % of trades 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Months after origination

12 Home Equity Trends 12

13 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Origination Trends HELOC HELOC origination volume limits (in $BNs) $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Overall $20 $19 $23 $23 $22 $22 $28 $30 $28 $26 $34 $37 $35 $31 13

14 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Origination Trends HELOC $12.0 HELOC origination volume limits by region (in $BNs) $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 $ Midwest Northeast South Atlantic South Central West 14

15 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Delinquency Trends HELOC HELOC delinquency rates as % of balances 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%

16 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Delinquency Trends HELOC Vintage performance 30+ delinquency rates as % of trades 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Months after origination

17 Bankcard Trends 17

18 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Origination Trends Bankcard Bankcard origination volume (in $BNs) $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ $57 $57 $61 $59 $63 $68 $77 $71 $77 $81 $80 $77 18

19 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Origination Trends Bankcard Bankcard origination volume by VantageScore (in $BNs) $45 $40 $35 $30 $36.2 $31.7 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ $6.8 $1.7 $0.11 Super Prime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime 19

20 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Origination Trends Bankcard Average limit per new trade by VantageScore (in $s) YoY % change in average limit by VantageScore $12, % -0.6% $10,000 $9,604 $9, % -3.2% $8, % -8.8% $6,000 $5,382 $5, % $4,000 $2,000 $0 Super Prime Prime $2,497 $2,277 Near Prime 2015 $1,171 $966 Subprime $686 $509 Deep Subprime -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -17.5% -25.9% Super Prime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime 20

21 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Outstanding Trends Bankcard Bankcard balances (in $BNs) to Unemployment rate 650 9% $629 8% 7% % 6% $ % 5% 4% 580 3% 570 2% 560 1% % Balances O/S Unemployment National Unemployment Rate: Bureau of Labor Statistics 21

22 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Delinquency Trends Bankcard Bankcard delinquency rates as % of balances 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 4.33% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.28% 0.78% 0.48% 0.0% DPD DPD DPD Charge-offs 22

23 Auto Trends 23

24 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Origination Trends Auto Loans Auto origination volume (in $BNs) $160 $515BN +8% $555BN $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ $107 $116 $109 $115 $132 $135 $121 $127 $142 $146 $133 $134 24

25 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Origination Trends Auto Loans Auto origination volume distribution by lender type 100% 90% 14% 15% 17% 18% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 21% 34% 33% 22% 25% 33% 29% 20% 10% 0% 32% 31% 28% 28% 2015 Captive Auto Banks Credit Unions Finance 25

26 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Origination Trends Auto Loans VantageScore distribution of origination volume by financial institution (latest quarter) Super Prime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime Banks 21% 49% 20% 10% 0.4% Captive Auto 23% 42% 22% 12% 0.5% Credit Unions 17% 51% 23% 9% 0.3% Finance 11% 26% 21% 37% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 26

27 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports 2015 Delinquency Trends Auto Loans Auto loan delinquency rates as % of balances 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.85% 1.83% 1.77% 1.0% 0.5% 0.46% 0.22% 0.0%

28 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report 2015 Summary Economy slowed in the quarter, but steady Unemployment continues to decline GDP relatively flat; consumer confidence stable Real estate showing signs of life 1 st Mortgage: 25% increase YoY HELOC originations: still generating over $30BN/quarter Strong loan performance for both portfolios Bankcard increases, but slower than prior quarters 8% YoY and 6% YoY for originations and balances, respectively Delinquency remains near all-time lows Auto growing through continuing channel diversification 6% YoY growth; Credit Unions and Finance categories now represent over 40% of originations Delinquency back in check after slight upticks in previous quarters 28

29 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report IntelliView IntelliView v1.2 now available! *NEW* Segment by Experian-exclusive scores *NEW* Overlay key macroeconomic indicators A unique combination of industry leading assets from Experian and Oliver Wyman Benchmark your portfolio performance against peers and industry to gain a competitive advantage Quickly and easily respond to what-if scenarios and run multiple iterations as needed 29

30 Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report VantageScore Overview VantageScore Credit Tiers Super prime Prime Near prime Subprime VantageScore, which is used by lenders and now available to consumers, is the first credit score developed cooperatively by Experian and the other national credit reporting companies. The VantageScore 3.0 model ranges from with a high score = low risk. Deep subprime Note: Each lender determines credit quality tiers according to their own lending strategies. The credit tier breakdown is offered only as an approximation. VantageScore is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC. 30

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