State of the Automotive Finance Market
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1 State of the Automotive Finance Market A look at loans and leases in Q Presented by: Melinda Zabritski Sr. Director, Financial Solutions Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public.
2 Session overview Market Overview Outstanding balances Total risk distributions Delinquency Originations New and Used financing Lender and transaction types Loan & lease characteristics 2 Experian
3 Overall Automotive Finance Market A review of all open automotive loans & leases 3 Experian
4 Billions Billions Loan balances reach another record high-yet experience slowing growth; Credit Unions see highest growth $1,120 $1,100 $1,080 $1,060 $1,040 $1,020 $1,000 $980 $960 $940 Total open automotive loan balance $1,108 $1, % 7.82% $1, % 2016 Q1 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Total open automotive loan balance $180 $162 $170 $249 $287 $319 $244 $253 $259 $343 $364 $ Q1 All Banks Captive Auto Credit Union Finance 4 Experian Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
5 Percentage of subprime shrinks falls below 19% of loan balances as both deep subprime and subprime fall Loan balance risk distribution 19.66% 19.74% 20.29% Year-over-year balance change 4.20% 5.20% 42.09% 41.70% 42.46% 0.70% 19.10% 18.86% 18.55% -2.23% 15.70% 15.94% 15.23% 3.45% 3.76% 3.47% 2016 Q1 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime -5.73% Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime 5 Experian
6 30 day delinquency rates are beginning to improve 6.0% 2017 Q Q1 % of loans & leases 30 dpd 4.0% 3.77% 3.83% 2.0% 1.71% 1.73% 1.67% 1.61% 1.21% 1.17% 1.96% 1.90% 0.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total 2017 Q Q1 % of loan balances 30 dpd 4.14% 4.26% 1.55% 1.60% 1.90% 1.79% 1.93% 1.86% 1.07% 1.02% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total 6 Experian Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
7 Percentage of loan balances 30 dpd AK = 1.60% HI = 1.16% 7 Experian
8 60 day delinquency rate increases begin to taper off 2.0% 1.5% 2017 Q Q1 % of loans & leases 60 dpd 1.55% 1.60% 1.0% 0.5% 0.58% 0.62% 0.50% 0.53% 0.30% 0.29% 0.67% 0.67% 0.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Banks Captive Credit Union Finance Total 2017 Q Q1 % of loan balances 60 dpd 1.72% 1.80% 0.52% 0.57% 0.58% 0.60% 0.66% 0.66% 0.25% 0.24% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total 8 Experian Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
9 Percentage of loan balances 60 dpd AK = 0.46% HI = 0.48% 9 Experian
10 Originations in Q Trends in automotive loan and lease originations 10 Experian
11 Automotive financing: snapshot of how and what consumers are financing Percentage of vehicles with financing New Used 85.5% 85.3% % of all new vehicles that are leased 31.06% 29.83% 53.3% 54.0% Finance Market: new v used units New Used Used % of lease market 55.23% 55.48% 44.77% 44.52% 3.71% 4.01% 11 Experian
12 6.9% 6.9% 11.3% 11.1% 35.6% 34.6% 12.7% 12.7% 8.3% 8.3% 20.0% 26.4% 21.3% 28.0% 16.8% 16.5% 32.5% 31.6% 29.3% 29.0% 28.7% 28.1% 0.1% 0.1% 53.9% 53.5% 12.4% 13.5% 4.8% 4.8% Credit Unions driving increases in market share (loan and lease units combined) Market Share of Total Financing (new/used units & loan/lease) Market Share of New Financing Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co Market Share of Used Financing Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co 12 Experian
13 Score range refresh Note: ranges above are those used by Experian Automotive for automotive finance market analysis and trending purposes. Other industries and lenders may use other ranges based on unique scores, portfolio and industry trends. 13 Experian
14 Credit scores show year-over-year improvement Average new credit scores Average used credit scores New lease All new New loan Franchise used All used Independent used Q Q Q Q Q Q Experian
15 Total finance (loan & lease) market continues to hit record highs as well as record lows in both new and used financing Total (new & used units) risk distribution 19.72% 19.88% 39.67% 40.28% 19.14% 19.19% 17.93% 17.54% 3.54% 3.11% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime New risk distribution 29.15% 29.55% 44.88% 45.42% 16.53% 8.79% 16.25% 8.20% Used risk distribution 12.02% 12.04% 35.41% 36.11% 21.27% 21.57% 25.39% 5.91% 25.11% 5.17% 15 Experian
16 Leasing remains very prime while more consumers shift into the loan space New lease risk distribution % of new borrowers choosing to lease 29.21% 29.46% Prime % 37.4% 48.18% 48.57% Nonprime 32.6% 34.1% 15.76% 15.36% 6.44% 6.21% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Deep & Sub 26.0% 25.9% Q Q Experian
17 Q1 record lows also seen in the loan market Total (new & used units) loan risk distribution 17.91% 18.13% 38.06% 38.78% 19.82% 19.92% 20.11% 19.59% 4.10% 3.58% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime New loan risk distribution 29.12% 29.60% 43.04% 43.76% 16.96% 10.10% 16.72% 9.26% Used loan risk distribution 11.98% 11.99% 35.42% 36.12% 21.33% 21.63% 25.41% 25.13% 5.86% 5.13% 17 Experian
18 43.75% 43.06% 93.43% 82.63% 70.40% 60.88% 93.47% 83.52% 70.72% 60.64% Prime consumers shift slightly away from used vehicles yet used subprime financing remains at record lows Percentage of consumers by risk tier choosing used loans Used Franchise loan risk distribution 15.33% 15.51% 42.67% 43.51% 22.65% 22.55% 17.42% 16.69% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Used Independent loan risk distribution 6.22% 23.98% 6.49% 25.21% 19.90% 20.46% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime 37.96% 37.66% 11.94% 10.18% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime 18 Experian
19 $25,762 $14,629 $16,407 $13,894 $28,842 $16,231 $18,203 $14,729 $32,648 $19,180 $20,978 $16,720 $33,010 $21,201 $29,274 $22,477 $18,888 $20,971 $21,829 $19,393 $31,455 $19,536 $21,290 $16,936 Record highs for average new and used loan amounts Average loan amount by tier Avg New All Used Franchise used Independent used Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in balance $988 $842 $742 $808 $857 $921 $423 $510 $515 $410 $244 $256 $205 $258 $267 $267 $352 $402 $386 $187 $179 $283 $324 $165 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 19 Experian
20 New loan term at inches above 69 months with increases being driven by prime and super prime term growth Average new term by risk tier New loan New lease Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in term Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 20 Experian
21 Used loan terms rise, yet decrease for high risk franchise used loans Average used loan term by tier All Used Franchise used Independent used Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in used loan term Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 21 Experian
22 Longer term loans continue to dominate the market Percentage of new loans by term Percentage of used loans by term 38.6% 41.3% 34.9% 33.6% 40.2% 40.7% 17.6% 17.6% 1.3% 1.3% 10.0% 9.9% 23.4% 23.1% 19.5% 19.7% Average new score by loan term Average used score by loan term Experian
23 New monthly payments leap to $523 hitting all time high Average new payment by risk tier New loan New lease $518 $537 $543 $528 $500 $523 $452 $452 $439 $433 $435 $436 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in new payment $32 $26 $22 $23 $18 $16 $18 $18 $15 $12 $15 $26 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 23 Experian
24 Average used payments remain high Average used payment by risk tier All used Franchise used Independent used $389 $392 $392 $396 $385 $382 $389 $382 $383 $386 $372 $366 $371 $372 $356 $360 $342 $348 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in used payment $9 $11 $11 $9 $9 $9 $9 $9 $8 $8 $8 $9 $9 $9 $7 $7 $7 $6 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 24 Experian
25 Gap between new and franchise used payments widen Gap between new and used payments Gap between new and used Gap between new and Franchise used $129 $126 $152 $171 $162 $141 $153 $147 $129 $117 $151 $137 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total YOY change in payment gap $9 $9 $9 $7 $7 $9 $6 $7 $3 $4 $6 $6 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 25 Experian
26 14.07% 11.35% 19.81% 18.63% 20.65% 16.92% 15.53% 18.48% 7.05% 4.16% 5.68% 3.23% 3.95% 5.17% 10.44% 9.64% 5.48% 6.34% 3.93% 4.04% 12.23% 9.18% 7.95% 11.82% Rates rise across the entire automotive loan market Average loan rates by tier Avg New All Used Franchise used Independent used Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change (bps) in loan rate Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 26 Experian
27 Summary Q1 continues a series of record highs for loan balances and lows for high risk originations Delinquency rates beginning to improve Leasing remains strong with over 29% of all new consumer vehicle sales yet decreases YOY Credit scores improve as lending continues to shift into more prime segments Loan amounts reach record highs for new vehicle financing Higher loan amounts and rising rates outpace the ability for longer loan terms to maintain low monthly payments 27 Experian
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