State of the Automotive Finance Market
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1 State of the Automotive Finance Market Presented by: Melinda Zabritski Q Experian
2 Session overview Market Overview Outstanding balances Total risk distributions Delinquency Originations New and Used financing Lender and transaction types Loan & lease characteristics 2 Experian
3 Overall Automotive Finance Market A review of all open automotive loans & leases 3 Experian
4 Billions Billions Loan balances reach another record high; Credit Unions maintain double-digit growth while banks decrease Total open automotive loan balance Total open automotive loan balance $1,200 $1,180 $1,160 $1,140 $1,120 $1,100 $1, % $1, % $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $200 $190 $178 $269 $305 $342 $1,080 $1,060 $1,040 $1,020 $1, % $600 $400 $200 $250 $256 $263 $358 $370 $369 $1,000 $ Q3 $ Q3 Banks Captive Credit Union Finance 4 Experian Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
5 Percentage of subprime remains below 20% of loan balances while all but deep subprime grow Loan balance risk distribution 19.26% 19.63% 20.03% Year-over-year balance change 5.80% 6.84% 41.84% 41.71% 42.17% 2.31% 3.45% 19.11% 18.72% 18.50% 16.04% 16.06% 15.70% 3.75% 3.87% 3.60% 2016 Q3 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime -2.87% Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime 5 Experian
6 30 day delinquency rates improve for all lenders 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2017 Q Q3 % of loans & leases 30 dpd 1.99% 1.94% 2.36% 2.25% 1.33% 1.21% 4.39% 3.95% 2.39% 2.23% 0.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total 2017 Q Q3 % of loan balances 30 dpd 5.03% 4.57% 2.85% 2.74% 2.43% 1.84% 1.80% 2.26% 1.19% 1.04% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total 6 Experian Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
7 Percentage of loan balances 30 dpd AK = 1.67% HI = 1.96% 7 Experian
8 60 day delinquency shows widespread improvements 2.0% 1.5% 2017 Q Q3 % of loans & leases 60 dpd 1.71% 1.54% 1.0% 0.5% 0.66% 0.69% 0.59% 0.56% 0.33% 0.30% 0.76% 0.72% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Banks Captive Credit Union Finance Total 2017 Q Q3 % of loan balances 60 dpd 1.95% 1.76% 0.61% 0.65% 0.69% 0.67% 0.76% 0.72% 0.27% 0.24% Bank Captive Credit Union Finance Total 8 Experian Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports
9 Percentage of loan balances 60 dpd AK = 0.60% HI = 0.66% 9 Experian
10 Originations in Q Trends in automotive loan and lease originations 10 Experian
11 Automotive financing*: snapshot of how and what consumers are financing Percentage of vehicles with financing New Used 85.5% 85.2% % of all new vehicles that are leased 34.07% 33.93% 53.1% 52.8% Finance Market: new v used units New Used 52.81% 53.86% 47.19% 46.14% Used % of lease market 3.68% 3.88% *Financing = either a loan or lease is present on the title 11 Experian
12 6.1% 5.8% 10.2% 10.5% 36.1% 34.8% 11.6% 10.9% 8.4% 8.9% 15.5% 15.5% 21.0% 22.6% 28.4% 29.9% 32.9% 31.0% 29.8% 30.1% 29.5% 26.7% 0.1% 0.1% 52.6% 53.7% 13.1% 14.5% 4.7% 5.0% Market share shifting away from banks (loan and lease units combined) Market Share of Total Financing (new/used units & loan/lease) Market Share of New Financing Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co Market Share of Used Financing Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co Bank BHPH Captive Credit Union Finance Co 12 Experian
13 Score range refresh Note: ranges above are those used by Experian Automotive for automotive finance market analysis and trending purposes. Other industries and lenders may use other ranges based on unique scores, portfolio and industry trends. 13 Experian
14 Credit scores show year-over-year improvement Average new credit scores Average used credit scores New lease All new New loan Franchise used All used Independent used Q Q Q Q Q Q Experian
15 Total and used finance reaches 6-year low for subprime Total (loan & lease/new & used units) risk distribution 20.16% 20.72% 40.90% 41.02% 19.56% 19.30% 16.60% 16.33% 2.79% 2.64% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime New (loan/lease) risk distribution 28.70% 29.47% 44.98% 44.63% 16.83% 8.84% 16.31% 8.91% Used (loan/lease) risk distribution 12.58% 13.05% 37.28% 37.85% 21.99% 21.92% 23.47% 22.84% 4.68% 4.35% 15 Experian
16 Leasing shifts into more prime segments as consumers choose leasing at greater rates than 2017 New lease risk distribution % of new borrowers choosing to lease 29.16% 29.52% Prime % 33.1% 48.35% 48.47% Nonprime 31.2% 29.4% 15.73% 15.43% 6.34% 6.15% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Deep & Sub 22.6% 22.4% Q Q Experian
17 Subprime hits 11-year low in the loan market driven by decreases in used lending Total (new & used units) loan risk distribution New loan risk distribution 28.49% 29.45% 18.60% 19.12% 39.63% 39.67% 20.25% 20.02% 18.35% 18.17% 3.17% 3.02% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime 43.44% 42.75% 17.33% 9.99% 16.74% 10.26% Used loan risk distribution 12.54% 12.99% 37.29% 37.85% 22.05% 21.97% 23.48% 22.86% 4.64% 4.33% 17 Experian
18 41.80% 42.63% 90.96% 79.32% 67.49% 58.35% 89.95% 78.97% 68.87% 59.87% Prime consumers continue trend toward used vehicles Percentage of consumers by risk tier choosing used loans Used Franchise loan risk distribution 15.66% 15.98% 43.90% 43.94% 22.79% 22.57% 16.04% 15.87% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Used Independent loan risk distribution 6.93% 7.28% 26.66% 27.59% 21.34% 21.62% 35.61% 34.72% 9.45% 8.79% Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime 18 Experian
19 $26,057 $15,550 $17,356 $14,690 $28,714 $17,047 $19,113 $15,352 $32,318 $19,520 $32,630 $28,636 $21,359 $17,097 $21,293 $22,599 $19,100 $20,775 $21,648 $19,288 $30,977 $19,861 $21,560 $17,382 Record highs for average used loan amounts Average loan amount by tier Avg New All Used Franchise used Independent used Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in balance $1,026 $713 $762 $631 $721 $595$623 $716 $701 $673 $554 $539 $597 $647 $512 $532 $517 $508 $520 $578 $570 $459 $559$575 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 19 Experian
20 Average new loan term decreases among prime and super prime consumers Average new term by risk tier New loan New lease Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in term Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 20 Experian
21 Used loan terms rise, yet decrease for high risk franchise used loans Average used loan term by tier All Used Franchise used Independent used Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in used loan term Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Experian
22 Longer term loans continue to dominate the market Percentage of new loans by term 40.2% 40.2% 32.0% 30.0% 19.4% 20.8% 1.2% 1.1% Percentage of used loans by term 41.9% 42.2% 22.9% 23.5% 18.8% 18.1% 9.9% 9.9% Average new score by loan term Average used score by loan term Experian
23 New monthly payments hit $530 hitting all time high Average new payment by risk tier New loan New lease $536 $549 $549 $534 $504 $530 $469 $459 $443 $427 $420 $430 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in new payment $34 $34 $28 $27 $27 $29 $28 $22 $24 $17 $14 $17 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 23 Experian
24 Average used payments also reach record highs while franchise used loans creep closer to $400 Average used payment by risk tier All used Franchise used Independent used $403 $411 $405 $413 $398 $392 $382 $401 $365 $390 $386 $396 $373 $373 $381 $368 $349 $351 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change in used payment $20 $15 $18 $16 $16 $18 $15 $16 $15 $15 $15 $17 $13 $14 $12 $13 $14 $13 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 24 Experian
25 Gap between new and franchise used payments widen Gap between new and used payments Gap between new and used Gap between new and Franchise used $132 $151 $168 $161 $125 $135 $148 $144 $131 $118 $149 $134 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total YOY change in payment gap $19 $16 $12 $11 $12 $8 $9 $12 $14 $14 $13 $11 Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total 25 Experian
26 14.41% 11.89% 18.98% 17.72% 19.72% 16.14% 14.80% 17.55% 7.52% 4.56% 3.68% 5.73% 10.34% 5.97% 4.34% 9.63% 5.77% 6.49% 4.28% 4.37% 11.78% 9.03% 8.00% 11.26% Rates rise across the entire automotive loan market Average loan rates by tier Avg New All Used Franchise used Independent used Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Year-over-year change (bps) in loan rate Deep Subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super Prime Total Experian
27 Summary Q3 continues a series of record highs for loan balances with credit unions maintaining double digit growth Delinquency improvements are seen for most lenders Leasing remains over 33% of all new consumer vehicle sales yet decreases YOY Credit scores improve as lending continues to shift into more prime segments Subprime reaches Q3 record lows driven primarily by lows in used financing Loan amounts remain high with payments rising as interest rates increase 27 Experian
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