Fourth annual state of small business and U.S. business credit

Transcription

1 #vision2016 Fourth annual state of small business and U.S. business credit Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.

2 Introducing: Cris deritis Moody s Analytics #vision2016 Pete Bolin Experian

3 Macro economic trends #vision2016 Moody s Analytics 3

4 Full employment is in view U6 underemployed per open job position Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics 4

5 Wage growth set to accelerate 12-month MA, percentage 4.0 Job opening rate, 12-month lag (L) ECI wage growth (R) Correlation coefficient= Sources: BLS, Moody s Analytics 5

6 Housing swings from overbuilt to undersupplied Vacant homes for sale, for rent, and held off market, ths 10,500 9,500 8,500 7,500 6,500 Trend vacancy 5, Sources: Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics 6

7 Household balance sheets are solid % disposable income Debt service (L) Financial obligations (R) Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody s Analytics 7

8 But, there are regional risks Status as of January 2016 data Recession At risk Recovery Expansion Source: Moody s Analytics 8

9 Experian / Moody s Analytics Main Street Report Quarterly report, combining Experian business credit data and Moody s Analytics economic analysis Brings deeper insights to the overall financial well-being of the small business landscape Provides macro-economic outlook on trends and what they mean for credit grantors and the small business community as a whole Includes a combination of business credit data (credit balances, delinquency rates, utilization rates, etc.) and macroeconomic information (employment rates, income, retail sales, investments, etc.) #vision2016 9

10 Credit for small businesses expands Q/Q % change for small businesses (less than 100 employees) Q/Q% Change Utilization Rate Q/Q % Change in Credit Limits Q/Q% Change Balance m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 10

11 Business delinquencies generally improve % of credit trades delinquent for small businesses dpd dpd dpd 91+ dpd m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 11

12 as did bankruptcy filings % of small businesses filing for bankruptcy m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 12

13 Performance mixed across the country % of businesses filing for bankruptcy by state, March 2016 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics

14 Mining industry bankruptcies are rising % of businesses Bankruptcy 90+ DPD m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 14

15 Services industry performance improves % of businesses Bankruptcy (L) 90+ DPD (R) m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 0 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 15

16 as does construction % of businesses Bankruptcy (L) 90+ DPD (R) m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 0 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 16

17 Retail industry stabilizing % of businesses Bankruptcy (L) 90+ DPD (R) m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 0 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 17

18 despite slower retail sales growth Driven by lower prices % change YoY, $ billions, SAAR All Retail Sales Retail Sales Ex-Gas Stations Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 Source: US Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics 18

19 Agriculture industry bankruptcies are low % of businesses Bankruptcy (L) 90+ DPD (R) m m3 2015m6 2015m9 2015m m3 0.0 Source: Experian, Moody s Analytics 19

20 but, worth watching as farm incomes weaken Farm proprietor income, $ millions, SAAR Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 Source: BEA, Moody s Analytics 20

21 U.S. small business credit trends #vision2016 Experian Decision Sciences 21

22 Business scores How business owners compare by region business score Intelliscore Plus SM V2 57 Recession West South Midwest Northeast National Average 22

23 How business owners compare by region Commercial credit card delinquency trend 3.3% Recession 2.8% 2.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.8% West South Midwest Northeast National Average 23

24 How business owners compare by region Consumer credit card delinquency trend 17% Recession 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% West South Midwest Northeast National Average 24

25 How business owners compare by region Bankruptcy rate trend 3.5% Recession 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% West South Midwest Northeast National Average 25

26 How business owners compare by region Bankruptcy rate trend West divisions 4.5% Recession 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Pacific Mountain West National Average 26

27 How business owners compare by region Bankruptcy rate trend Pacific states 5.0% Recession 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% AK CA HI OR WA Pacific 27

28 How business owners compare by region Bankruptcy rate trend Oregon 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Recession Measures 66 & % CARPENTRY WORK LUMBER AND OTHER BUILDING MATERIALS MISCELLANEOUS APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES SIGNS AND ADVERTISING SPECIALTIES AUTO AND HOME SUPPLY STORES 28

29 Oregon apparel industry Athletic and outdoor company managers large and small voiced their dismay with the rhetoric employed by the advocates of Measures 66 and 67 (increasing the personal and corporate tax rates in Oregon). The anti-business and soak the rich attitudes expressed in the campaign made them question the public support for businesses. Joseph Cortright, Impresa #vision

30 Oregon apparel industry Some established firms have contracted or failed (often being sold to another larger firm). Even these closures can prompt dislocated workers to start their own firms, ultimately triggering further growth. Joseph Cortright, Impresa #vision

31 Hot topic! Millennial business owners #vision2016 Experian Decision Sciences 31

32 Business scores Personal scores How Millennial business owners compare Business scores and personal scores Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers Greatest/Silent 640 Mean Intelliscore Plus SM V2 Financial Stability Risk Score SM Mean VantageScore V3 32

33 How Millennial business owners compare Student loan payments and balances $60,000 $400 $50,000 $350 $300 $40,000 $250 $30,000 $200 $20,000 $150 $100 $10,000 $50 $0 Millenial Gen X Baby Boomers Greatest/Silent $0 Avg. Student Loan Balance Avg. Student Loan Payment 33

34 % of sample How Millennial business owners compare Industry concentration 6% 5% Millenial Gen X Baby Boomers Greatest/Silent 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 34

35 Years in Business How Millennial business owners compare Average number of years in business Millenial Gen X Baby Boomers Greatest/Silent #vision

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