New Orleans Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 2009 Q Q4.
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1 Area Local Market Report, Fourth Quarter Today's Market $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth Price Activity Current Median Home Price ( ) $157,900 $173,500 1-year Appreciation ( ) year Appreciation ( ) year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain -$4,200 -$9,600 7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain $35,300 -$47,600 9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain $43,600 -$4,767 Local Trend Prices are above the level from 12 months ago and growing g Real estate remains a long-term investment: those who bought early in the boom still hold some equity Conforming Loan Limit* $417,000 $729,250 Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio 38 not comparable *e: the loan limits for FHA and the GSEs were extended through Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed finacing 1,000s 120 State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth Home Sales and Construction Growth Louisiana State Existing Home Sales ( vs 2008 ) The sales level is much higher than a year ago and growing. g
2 Drivers of Local Supply and Demand Local Economic Outlook 1-year Job Change (Dec) -7,300 1-year Job Change (Nov) -7,700 3-year Job Change (Dec) 16,700 Current Unemployment (Dec) Year-ago Unemployment 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Job losses are a problem and will weigh on demand, but layoffs are declining which could help buyer confidence Unemployment has risen since the same period last year, but 's labor market has been more resilient than the national average Weak, but better than most markets State Economic Activity Index 12-month change ( - Dec) 36-month change ( - Dec) Louisiana Louisiana's economy has contracted more than the rest of the nation and continues to soften Local Fundamentals 12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Dec Long-term average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits 2,163 5,300 not comparable not comparable The current level of construction is 59.2 below the long-term average Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand to catch up with current supply and foreclosures more quickly Single-Family Housing Permits (Dec ) 12-month sum vs. a year ago Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
3 Affordability 30 Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for Historically strong and an improvement Ratio for over the third quarter of this year Historical Average More affordable than most markets Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line) 2008 Q Q Q1 Q3
4 Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 3.6 Ratio for Historical Average Local affordability has improved and is below the historical average Affordable compared to most markets Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, Average in Green) The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage and Treasury Bond Yield () Spread (left axis) 30-Year FRM (Right axis) 10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis) The spread between the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and the 10-year Treasury is now at comfortable, pre-crisis levels. However, the Federal Reserve and Treasury will stop buying mortgage backed securities (MBS) on March 31st. The agencies had been buying MBS to keep mortgage rates low. Consequently, the end of the program has some market observers concerned about a possible increase in rates. However, the Fed has slashed its purchases of MBS in recent weeks and the private sector has scooped up any remaining MBS. With yields on other investments low, the returns on the MBS, even at 5, are desirable. The Fed has promised that it stands ready to intervene in the market, presumably by resuming purchases, in case there is a sudden increase in mortgage rates. Low mortgage rates have been critical to the improved home sales that are at the core of the housing market and economic recovery.
5 Looking Deeper State Total Foreclosure vs. U.S Average ( Average in Blue Dashed Line) Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association Monthly Market Data - November Market Share: Prime (blue) vs. Subprime + Alt-A PRIME: Suprime mortgages make up a larger than average share ofn the market, but rising prime foreclosures are also becoming a problem There was a substantial increase versus October of this year Compared to the national average, today's local rate is low SUBPRIME: There has been a large local increase versus a year ago Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low relative to the national average ALT-A: A large local increase occurred compared to October of this year The November rate for is low compared to the national average The "foreclosure + REO rate" is the number of mortgages, by metro area, that are either in the foreclosure process or have completed the foreclosure process and are owned by banks divided by the total number of mortgages for that area. Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
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