HOUSING STABILITY, SYSTEMIC RISK AND SECURITIZATION
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1 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (JMCB) International Monetary Fund November 14, 2013 HOUSING, STABILITY AND THE MACROECONOMY: INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVES HOUSING STABILITY, SYSTEMIC RISK AND SECURITIZATION Susan M. Wachter Richard B. Worley Professor of Financial Management Professor of Real Estate and Finance KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION
2 Housing Stability, Systemic Risk and Securitization International House Price Boom-Bust of Good or Bad Securitization Implication of the Banking/Financial System Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts Fundamental Problem of Incomplete Markets and Mispriced Risk Banks as Secret Keepers v. Transparency Securitization as a Solution? KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 2
3 House Price Boom and Bust in the US March, 2007 January, 2008 September, 2008 KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION 3
4 International Headlines September 18, 2007 October 10, 2008 March 30, 2009 December 22, 2008 KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 4
5 Global Housing Prices Peak in 2007 Sources: BIS; Bundesbank; FHFA; Japan Real Estate Institute; NVM; Nationwide; OECD; Office for National Statistics; Standard & Poor's; Statistics Denmark; Statistics Netherlands; Statistics Sweden; Thomson Reuters; vdpresearch KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 5
6 Aggregate Interest Rate Aggregate House Prices Prices Rise as Interest Rates Decline from Aggregate House Prices and Interest Rates 14.0% % Aggregate Interest Rates Aggregate House Prices % % % % % Aggregate values include data from: Spain, Ireland, U.K., Netherlands, Belgium, U.S., Japan, France, Canada, Italy, Australia, Sweden, Germany Year KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION
7 Interest Rates Bottom in 2003 KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION 7
8 Mortgage Debt to GDP Ratio Grows at 4.8% per Year from and at 4.6% from for the EU27 Residential Mortgage Debt to GDP Ratio, % Netherlands Denmark UK Ireland Sweden Spain Portugal EU27 Germany Luxembourg Belgium France Estonia Latvia Greece Italy KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 8
9 Securitization Takes Off World Economic and Financial Surveys October 2009 Global Financial Stability Report: Navigating the Financial Challenges Ahead 2009 International Monetary Fund KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION 9
10 Mortgage debt to GDP rise results in systemic risk Market Share of Nontraditional Mortgage Products and Private Label Securitization 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nontradi onal Mortgage Product Origina on PLS Share of MBS Issuance Source: Inside Mortgage Finance 2012 Mortgage Market Statistical Annual. Nontraditional mortgage products are subprime, Alt-A and home equity loans. MBS Issuance: Subprime and alt-a at 0 by 2008 KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION
11 Rates Out of Line with Projected Losses Expected Annualized Loss Loss-adjusted Rate Expected annual loss for subprime and alt-a jumps in 2005 But not the required rate of return, using data available at the time Despite unpriced increased risk, mortgage flows increase in 2006 Prices rise 24% from 2004 to 2006, 8% from 2005 to 2006 Price volatility resulting from excessive mortgage supply/ntms KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION
12 Fundamental Problem: Real Estate Booms Put Financial Intermediaries at Risk With heterogeneous beliefs and lack of short selling, optimists set prices. Lending at collateral s market price set by optimists implicates banking/ financial system. Banks may reduce lending standards in feedback loop. Price expectation formation, misaligned incentives, moral hazard issues KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 12
13 Bank Lending Drives Real Estate Prices Fundamental Factors Demand for Real Estate Price of Real Estate Supply of Credit Banks Value of Real Estate Assets Owned Value of Loans Collateralized by Real Estate Assessment of Risk of Real Estate Lending Herring, Richard J., and Susan Wachter. Real estate booms and banking busts: an international perspective. US-Japan Management Studies Center, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, Supervision & Regulation KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION
14 Calls for Transparency in Securitization Markets Securitization, the major innovation did not prevent market collapses, e.g. Spain. Information infrastructure, enhanced capital requirements Securitization markets for price discovery with full information and risk pricing KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 14
15 Transparency in Securitization Markets: Not a Panacea Securitization with full transparency with herding behavior, contagion effects, and imperfect information is reintroduces instability. Liquidity, risk pooling issues: Opacity maintains the pool. Price Revelation Securitization: Derivative markets with for price discovery with full information and risk pricing can provide signal risk, raise cost of capital, and complete markets. KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan Wachter 15
16 Thank you Susan M. Wachter Richard B. Worley Professor of Financial Management Professor of Real Estate and Finance Co-Director - Institute for Urban Research The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Tel: Cell: wachter@wharton.upenn.edu KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION Susan M. Wachter 16
17 KNOWLEDGE FOR ACTION
Housing Stability, Systemic Risk and Securitization. Susan M. Wachter, University of Pennsylvania
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