Results of Sunday Mail State Political Poll June 22, 2011

Transcription

1 Results of Sunday Mail State Political Poll June 22, 2011 Question 1 "If a State election for the House of Assembly or Lower House were held tomorrow, which party or candidate would receive your first preference?" Q1. If a State election for the House of Assembly or Lower House were held tomorrow, which party or candidate would receive your first preference? Labor 27% 23% 25% 26% 25% Liberal 49% 47% 44% 53% 49% Democrats 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% The Greens 9% 9% 11% 7% 9% Family First 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% Indep / Other 7% 14% 12% 6% 9% Note that 7% undecided and 2% informal/none have been excluded. In a hypothetical State election tomorrow, 25% of SA voters would give their first preference to the ALP and 49 % would put the Liberals first. When compared with the primary vote from The Advertiser s State poll on 18 April 2011 we see that: ALP is pretty much unchanged at 25% (was 24% in the April Tiser poll) Liberals are also unchanged at 49% (was 50% in April) The Greens are now 9% (were 11% in April) Family First are still 5% (were 5% in April) Independent/Other support is still at 9% (was 9% in April poll) SA TWO-PARTY PREFERRED SCORES ALP 42% and Liberal 58% which has only slightly changed from ALP 40% and Liberal 60% in The Advertiser 18 April 2011 poll. o In the Adelaide metro area the two-party preferred score is also 42% ALP and 58% Liberal. o In SA country areas the two-party preferred score is now 40% ALP and 60% Liberal.

2 Question 2 "Who do you think would do a better job as Premier of South Australia?" Q2. Who do you think would Mike Rann 35% 36% 32% 38% 35% do a better job as Premier of Isobel Redmond 48% 46% 50% 46% 48% South Australia? Don't know 17% 18% 18% 16% 17% Almost half (48%) of SA voters thought Isobel Redmond would do a better job of Premier than Mike Ran while around one-third (35%) thought Rann would do a better job. Two months ago when we asked this question on April 18, Redmond had 56% of SA voters thinking she would do a better job compared to Rann s 28%. Q2. Who do you think would do a better job as Premier of South Australia? Mike Rann 77% 17% 50% 42% 11% Isobel Redmond 10% 75% 25% 33% 52% Don't know 13% 8% 25% 25% 37% 77% of ALP voters think Rann would do a better job as Premier than Redmond while 75%of Liberal voters thought Redmond would do a better job. Both Greens and Family First voters thought Rann would do the better job as Premier.

3 State Politics 22 Jun 2011 for Mail.docx Question 3 "Who do you think should lead Labor to the next State election in 2014? Q3. Who do you think should Mike Rann 26% 29% 25% 28% 27% lead Labor to the next State Jay Weatherill 38% 46% 41% 40% 40% election in 2014? John Rau 13% 8% 13% 10% 11% Jack Snelling 9% 3% 10% 6% 8% Don't know 14% 14% 11% 16% 14% 40% of SA voters thought that Jay Weatherill should lead the state ALP to the next State election in This was followed by 27% thinking Rann should continue to lead and 11% thinking John Rau should lead the State ALP. Back in our 18 th April poll, Weatherill had 34% of SA voters thinking he should lead Labor to the next State election back while Rann was on 26%. Q3. Who do you think should lead Labor to the next State election in 2014? Mike Rann 43% 14% 48% 38% 17% Jay Weatherill 35% 47% 25% 12% 63% John Rau 10% 15% 4% 17% 8% Jack Snelling 8% 6% 18% 14% 3% Don't know 4% 18% 5% 19% 9% 43% of ALP voters think Rann should continue to lead the State ALP while 35% think Weatherill should take over. Amongst Liberal voters, almost half (47%) want Weatherill to take over compared to only 14% wanting Rann to continue. Rann enjoyed greater support than Weatherill among Green and Family First voters.

4 Question 4 "Do you think Mike Rann should step down as State Premier...?" State Politics 22 Jun 2011 for Mail.docx Q4. Do you think Mike Rann should step down as State Premier...? No, Rann should stay on 30% 33% 28% 33% 31% Step down immediately 38% 39% 43% 33% 38% Step down at end of the year after breaking Bannon and Dunstan's records 15% 6% 11% 14% 13% Step down halfway through his current term in March 13% 17% 15% 14% 14% 2012 Don't know 4% 5% 3% 6% 4% 38% of SA voters think that Rann should step down immediately as State Premier while 31% think he should stay on. Q4. Do you think Mike Rann should step down as State Premier...? No, Rann should stay on 45% 17% 51% 48% 19% Step down immediately 13% 53% 22% 47% 60% Step down at end of the year after breaking Bannon and Dunstan's records 17% 14% 11% 0% 7% Step down halfway through his current term in March 21% 10% 16% 3% 11% 2012 Don't know 4% 6% 0% 2% 3% 45% of ALP voters think Rann should stay on while 21% think he should step down in March 2012 when he is halfway through his current term. 53% of Liberal voters want Rann to step down immediately with only 17% saying he should stay on as Premier.

5 State Politics 22 Jun 2011 for Mail.docx Question 5 As a result of this month s State Budget, do you think South Australia will be financially better off, worse off or about the same as it was before? Q5. As a result of this month s State Budget, do you think South Australia will be financially better off, worse off or about the same as it was before? Better off 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% Worse off 42% 48% 39% 49% 44% About the same 48% 43% 51% 42% 46% Don't know 7% 5% 7% 6% 7% Almost half (46%) of SA voters think that SA will be about the same as before financially as a result of this month s State Budget. 44% think SA will be worse off and only 3% think the State will be better off as a result of the State Budget. Q5. As a result of this month s State Budget, do you think South Australia will be financially better off, worse off or about the same as it was before? Better off 5% 2% 4% 0% 1% Worse off 20% 55% 33% 76% 52% About the same 72% 37% 56% 19% 40% Don't know 3% 6% 7% 5% 7% 72% of ALP voters think SA will be pretty much unchanged financially as a result of the latest State Budget. This contrasts with over half (55%) of Liberal voters thinking that SA would be worse off under the new State Budget.