Survey of Cupertino Union School District Likely Special Election Voters

Transcription

1 Survey of Cupertino Union School District Likely Special Election Voters Presentation of telephone survey findings Prepared for Cupertino Union School District Board of Education EMC Research, Inc th Street, Suite 820 Oakland, CA (510) EMC # January, 2011

2 Methodology 2 Telephone Survey of Likely Special Election Voters in Cupertino Union School District 900 completed interviews Overall Margin of error percentage points Split Sample Methodology (n=300 per sample) Margin of error per sample percentage points Conducted January 4-9, 2011 Where applicable, results compared with previous surveys: September, 2010, n=400 MoE % January, 2009, n=403; MoE % April, 2008, n=600; MOE: % As with any opinion research, the release of selected figures from this report without the analysis that explains their meaning would be damaging to EMC. Therefore, EMC reserves the right to correct any misleading release of this data in any medium through the release of correct data or analysis. Please note that due to rounding, percentages may not add up to exactly 100%

3 Split Sample Methodology: Measuring Price Sensitivity 3 In order to test potential differences in support for a parcel tax at different taxation levels, respondents were randomly assigned to one of three groups called Sample A, B or C. Respondents in each sample were asked about only one tax amount throughout the poll. The three samples were demographically similar and (as the poll revealed) share similar attitudes about taxes and support for public schools. Therefore, we can infer that any difference in support among the three samples is due to the different tax amounts.

4 Key Findings 4 The overall environment is very similar to what was seen in the polling prior to the successful passage of Measure B in 2009 Voters have concerns about the economy and many are hesitant about raising taxes, but there is large and committed base of support for local schools CUSD parents are more supportive of a tax measure today than they were prior to Measure B Performance ratings of the District remain positive A conservative tax amount and a cohesive, well-targeted private campaign effort is recommended

5 Issue Environment

6 Overall optimism today is identical to attitudes prior to the May 09 Measure B Election 6 Do you feel that things in your area are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? (Q5) Right direction (Don't know) Wrong track Jan '11 60% 17% 23% Sept '10 65% 15% 20% Jan '09 60% 16% 24% April '08 55% 13% 32%

7 About half expect the economy to improve soon, but half do not 7 How do you expect economic conditions to be six months from now? (Q6) Substantially better Moderately better The same Moderately worse Substantially worse Don't know 3% 45% 36% 8% 3% 4%

8 Ratings of the District continue to be very positive 8 Please rate the following areas relating to the Cupertino Union School District : Excellent Good (Don't Know) Only Fair Poor Jan '11 11% 36% 24% 20% 10% The management of district monies Sept '10 Jan '09 9% 5% 30% 38% 28% 25% 25% 21% 8% 12% April '08 7% 28% 34% 21% 10% Student academic achievement & test scores Jan '11 Sept '10 50% 54% 36% 35% 8% 5% 1% 7% 4%

9 The quality of education rating also continues to be very positive 9 Please rate the following areas relating to the Cupertino Union School District : Excellent Good (Don't Know) Only Fair/Poor (Jan '11) The quality of education 42% 42% 5% 11% Quality of Elementary Education May '10 Jan '09 April '08 37% 32% 46% 43% 46% 38% 9% 7% 12% 10% 13% 10% Quality of Middle School Education May '10 Jan '09 April '08 26% 26% 37% 47% 42% 42% 11% 9% 11% 16% 18% 14%

10 Significantly fewer respondents remember voting Yes on Measure B in 09; there may be confusion since the recent election (IF Voted in Special 09, n=616) As you may recall, there was a special election in May, 2009, in which voters were asked to vote on Measure B, a parcel tax for the Cupertino Union School District. Do you recall if you voted Yes to approve Measure B, No to reject Measure B, or do you not remember how you voted? (Q23) 10 30% 15% 16% 20% 21% Voted No 70% 70% 59% Don't remember/ Refused Voted Yes May '09 Election Result Sept '10 (70% of those interviewed) Jan '11 (68% of those interviewed)

11 Support for Parcel Tax Measure

12 Support for the measure is significantly lower at higher tax amounts Quality Local Schools and Local Academic Excellence Measure: To provide stable funding that the State cannot take away, protect outstanding core academic programs in reading, writing, math and science, retain highly qualified teachers, provide updated technology and keep libraries open, shall Cupertino Union School District authorize an annual school parcel tax of $ per parcel for six years with citizen oversight, no funds for administrators salaries, an exemption available for seniors and all funds staying in our local schools? 27% 30% 36% 2% 7% 6% 2% 9% 6% 3% 7% 8% 58% 54% 47% Samp A: $125 Samp B: $165 Samp C: $200 No, reject Lean No (Undecided) Lean Yes Yes, approve 12

13 Support at the $125 level is almost identical to pre- Measure B polling 13 Yes, approve Lean Yes (Undecided) Lean No No, reject 22% 19% 29% 30% 27% 2% 3% 5% 10% 2% 6% 2% 5% 7% 5% 6% 6% 60% 58% 70% 68% 58% April '08 Poll($125; n=200) Jan '09 Poll May '09 Election Result Sept '10 Poll ($125; n=400) Jan '11 Poll ($125; n=300)

14 Only at the $125 level does support reach the 2/3 threshold among those who voted in the May 09 Special Yes, approve (Undecided) No, reject 14 25% 8% 37% 6% 28% 8% 40% 38% 42% 11% 6% 10% 67% 58% 65% 48% 57% 49% Voted 5/5/09 (63%) Didn't Vote (37%) Voted 5/5/09 (70%) Didn't Vote (30%) Voted in 5/5/09(71%) Didn't Vote (29%) Sample A $125 Sample B $165 Sample C $200

15 Support for a $125 measure is much stronger among CUSD parents than it was in Jan 09 Yes, approve (Undecided) No, reject 15 35% 3% 29% 6% 19% 7% 33% 7% 61% 65% 73% 60% CUSD parents (21%) Not parents (79%) CUSD parents (27%) Not parents (73%) (Sample A: $125)

16 However, many parents indicate opposition to the tax at higher levels 16 Yes, approve (Undecided) No, reject 19% 7% 33% 7% 23% 8% 34% 10% 28% 4% 43% 8% 73% 60% 69% 57% 68% 48% CUSD parents (27%) Not parents (73%) CUSD parents (27%) Not parents (73%) Sample A: $125 Sample B: $165 CUSD parents (31%) Not parents (69%) Sample C: $200

17 Voter Attitudes

18 Anti-tax sentiment is similar to the attitudes seen prior to Measure B please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with: 18 Strongly agree Somewhat agree (No opinion/don't know) Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Taxes are already high enough; I ll vote against any tax increase (Q11) Jan '11 Sept '10 Jan '09 31% 24% 30% 23% 20% 18% 4% 2% 4% 24% 24% 23% 21% 25% 27% April '08 27% 19% 4% 25% 25% Maintaining the quality of our schools should be a top priority, even if it means raising taxes (Q12) Jan '11 Sept '10 Jan '09 43% 43% 56% 31% 30% 24% 1% 4% 10% 12% 1% 8% 11% 13% 13%

19 Most agree that we cannot rely on the state, but over half also agree that it s the state s responsibility to fund our schools please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly disagree with: 19 Strongly agree Somewhat agree (No opinion/don't know) Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree We can t rely on the state to provide the funds necessary to keep our schools strong; local funding is needed to maintain the quality of local schools (Q13) 36% 40% 4% 12% 9% It is the state s responsibility to fund our local schools. We should not increase local taxes to fund education (Q14) 25% 29% 5% 25% 16%

20 Additional Information

21 Fiscal responsibility remains the most important message about the measure 21 After you hear each statement, please tell me if it makes you more likely to support the measure, or if it makes no difference. Much more likely support Somewhat more likely support No Difference/Don't know/less likely support All revenue will be spent in local schools, cannot be taken away by St.; will be citizen's oversight to ensure monies spent as promised (Q15) 39% 26% 35% Measure will allow District retain highly qualified, experienced teachers, maintain outstanding core academic programs (Q17) 30% 30% 40% Award winning schools doing great job; have high test scores, excellent teachers, strong parent support; with this measure, schools can maintain/improve quality of ed (Q16) 27% 27% 46%

22 Support increases slightly with a little additional information 22 Total Yes (Undecided) Total No 29% 27% 31% 31% 7% 7% 9% 9% 39% 39% 7% 4% 64% 66% 60% 60% 54% 58% Ask 1 Ask 2 (after (unaided) supportive messages) Ask 1 Ask 2 (after (unaided) supportive messages) Ask 1 Ask 2 (after (unaided) supportive messages) Sample A $125 Sample B $165 Sample C $200

23 Positive information has been shown to make a difference 23 Total Yes (Undecided) Total No 31% 26% 21% 18% 3% 5% 4% 5% 64% 71% 74% 79% Unaided vote Vote after 9 supportive messages plus projects Unaided vote Vote after 11 supportive messages plus projects January, 2009 September, 2010

24 Information against the measure leads some to feel less supportive After you hear each statement, please tell me if it makes you more likely to oppose the measure, or if it makes no difference. 24 Much more likely oppose Somewhat more likely oppose No Difference/Don't know/more likely support Money from this measure will just go to protect union and gov. employee benefits & pensions that are excessive, way beyond what they would get in the private sector 30% 16% 54% The new Governor is likely to call a special election & ask voters to pass a statewide tax for education this yr. If that happens, parcel tax for CUSD will be excessive, unnecessary 22% 21% 57% Property owners already pay a $125 parcel tax for the CUSD. With this measure, the tax would increase to [$xx] annually Sample A: increase to $250 Sample B: increase to $290 22% 25% 22% 17% 56% 58% Sample C: increase to $325 32% 18% 50%

25 Opposition messaging lowers support, but there is a strong base of support at the $125 tax level 25 Total Yes (Undecided) Total No 29% 27% 7% 7% 34% 31% 31% 8% 9% 9% 39% 39% 39% 43% 8% 7% 4% 8% 64% 66% 58% 60% 60% 54% 54% 58% 49% Unaided vote Vote after Vote after positives negatives Unaided vote Vote after Vote after positives negatives Unaided vote Vote after Vote after positives negatives Sample A $125 Sample B $165 Sample C $200

26 Moving forward A strong base of support exists for another parcel tax measure in the District. Polling indicates that a conservative tax amount is advisable voters are price sensitive. A mail-in Special Election is recommended not a regularly scheduled poll election Continue to communicate about the quality education programs in the District, the sound financial management and the unreliability of the State as a partner. 26