JARVIS-GANN INITIATIVE POTENTIAL VOTERS BECOMING MORE AWARE OF PROP. 13. FAVORABILITY MARGIN DROPS.

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1 THE Ir'JDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISl~N STATEWIDE SURVEY Of PUBliC OPINION FSU\BLlSHED IN 1947 BY MERVIN D. FiElD. 234 Fr(;,rt Stree'C San Francisco ~)~} 1t (415) COPYRIGHT 1978 BY THE FIEID INSTI'lUTE. FOR PUBLICATICN BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #964 For Release: WEDNESDAY, April 12, 1978 JARVIS-GANN INITIATIVE POTENTIAL VOTERS BECOMING MORE AWARE OF PROP. 13. FAVORABILITY MARGIN DROPS. By Mervin D. Field IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents of report are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to rele.ase time. In recent weeks Californians have become more aware of Proposition 13 but there has been a drop in the margin of favorability for the highly controversial Jarvis-Gann tax relief initiative which will be on the June 6 ballot. Today, about four out of five persons among potential statewide voters (79%) say they are aware of Proposition 13, where in February only 56% were aware. About half of the State's electorate (52%) now acknowledges an opinion on the issue, and this is split almost evenly -- 27% say they are in favor while 25% say they are opposed. Six weeks ago, just 30% of the public had made up their minds, but the ratio of support then was two to one (20% in favor and 10% opposed). Following are the comparative figures from the last two crosssection California Poll surveys on Proposition 13. March 27 April 3 Feb At tare of pr'oposition13 79% 56% Currently favor Currently oppose Undecided, need to know more Not aware of Propo'sition The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non partisan media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is owned by Field Research Corporation and since 1976 has been operated by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan research group engaged in conducting studies of public opinion on issues of social significance. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

2 _. e- #964 The California Poll page 3 This survey finds that about half (50%) of the public thinks that the Behr bill provides enough tax relief, while 34% feels that it does not, with 16% having no opinion. For the Behr bill to become operative, voters must approve Proposition 8 on the June ballot. Proposition 8 would change the state constitution so that owner occupied dwellings could be taxed at a lower rate than commercial business property. At present, just about one in three adults (31%) are aware of 'Proposition 8. In a test of the public's reaction to the intent of Proposition 8, more than half (55%) think it is a "good idea" and 27% say it is a "bad idea" to tax owner occupied dwellings at a rate lower than other property. While presently overall public disposition to vote for Proposition 13 is not as strong as it was initially, the California Poll finds that there is still much potency in the arguments being used by Jarvis-Gann supporters. This shows up in reaction to the underlying themes in the growing public debate over Proposition 13. The California Poll made a test of four pro and four con arguments now being widely publicized. Results indicate that overall proponent arguments generate more intense positive feeling than do the arguments advanced by opporents of Proposition 13. For example, 78% of the public agrees with the proponent argument that "property taxes are so high many homeowners can't afford to live in their own home". An almost equal proportion (73%) agree with the pro Proposition 13 argument that "local governments can get by on a lot less money". Seven out of ten (70%) feel that "Proposition 13 is the only way to send a strong message to government that people are fed up with high taxes and too much government spending". In each of these cases agreement with the arguments is of a relative high intensity - most people agreeing "strongly". However, a majority (58%) reject the pro Prop. 13 argument that a "big cut in property taxes will stimulate the economy and create jobs". On the other side, just one of the claims advanced by Proposition 13 opponents gets majority endorsement. Six in ten (62%) agree with the argument that "property taxes cut by Proposition 13 would have to be replaced by other taxes".

3 ~ The California Poll #964 page 4 The opposition argument that "Proposition 13 would seriously impair police and fire protection and the local school system" finds more people in disagreement (47%) than in agreement (41%). The claim by opponents that "Proposition 13 would benefit business more than it would homeowners" also sharply divides the public with 45% in agreement and 37% disagreeing. The anti-jarvis-gann argument that "Proposition 13 would take decision making away from the local level and weaken home rule," is rejected by the public 53% to 26%. It may seem contradictory for the public to become relatively less supportive of Proposition 13 while continuing to agree with the premises underlying the measure. This is probably explainable as due to the uncertainty of the consequences if Proposition 13 passes, along with the effects of the barrage of conflicting arguments, appeals and dire forecasts which now appear in all types of media throughout the state. The public well knows that taxes are high and have been rising steadily. There is growing belief that it is not getting good value in government spending of its tax dollars. Some action to halt these trends is very high in voter priorities, and emotions are deeply felt. However, the public is also concerned by the adverse consequences of too deep a cut in property tax revenues. The widely publicized "disaster" warnings advanced by Proposition 13 critics aggravate these concerns. Obviously most of the public feels more comfortable with responsible reform, not chaos and conflict. Public awareness of the Behr bill is by no means as widespread as is Proposition 13. It is possible that as the public becomes more aware of the Behr bill and Proposition 8, these instruments may corne to be seen as satisfactory alternatives to Proposition 13. The media campaign for and against the Jarvis-Gann proposal has not yet come into full public view. Both sides are raising large sums of advertising money, and this promises to be another noisy ballot proposition campaign for which California has become famous. Since the issues surrounding Proposition 13 have a direct and immediate personal effect on voters, the public will undoubtedly experience conflicting tugs and pulls at their basic feelings in the weeks to come as the campaign heats up even more. How it will eventually decide on the Jarvis-Gann measure is as yet uncertain.

4 .r ~ - - ~-_._~-_..._ million people signed the original petitions for Proposition 13. In its studies in recent years, The Field Institute has found the public growingly concerned, if not outraged, by the rapid rate in taxes, with the property tax becoming most burdensome. The public is also highly critical of rising government expenditures, questioning their need and the efficiency of governmental operations of all kinds. If Proposition 13 passes, annual property taxes throughout the state would be cut by about $7 billion, over half the present level. A cut of this magnitude would have the greatest effect on county and city governments and school districts which depend heavily on property taxes for their funds. Opposition to Proposition 13 is coming from many establishment interests including state and local government officials, school leaders, and government employees. Many prominent big business executives have taken a stand against Proposition 13, even though their companies' property taxes would be reduced by its passage. Leading media have editorialized against Proposition 13. These alarmed opponents maintain that passage of Proposition 13 would result in the "crippling" of" police and fire departments, possible "bankruptcy" of schools, and "defaulting" on municipal bonds. The Jarvis-Gann challenge galvanized a slow-moving State legislature into passing a rival property tax relief bill, known as the Behr bill. Using the present and anticipated state budget surplus as a financial offset, the Behr bill reduces homeowners' property taxes by 30% (in contrast with Jarvis-Gann's 57% cut). The legislature's action would not cut property taxes at all for businesses and industrial property owners. The Behr bill also specifies some benefits for renters and senior citizens, and places some limits on the amount of taxes that state and local governments can levy. However, it does not go as far as the Jarvis-Gann proposal which would re.quire a two-thirds vote by the state legislature to raise any taxes.

5 The California Poll page 5 *964 Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Pro Arguments Property taxes are so many homeowners can't afford to live in own high home. 57% Local by on governments can get lots less money. 47% Prop. 13 is only way to send strong message to government that people are fed up with high taxes and too much government spending. 48% A big cut in property taxes will stimulate economy and create jobs. 12% Agree Strongly Agree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Arguments Against: Property taxes cut by Prop. 13 would have to be replaced by other taxes. 32% Prop. 13 would benefit business more than it would benefit homeowners. 21% Prop. 13 would seriously impair police and fire protection and local school system. 25% Prop. 13 would take decision making away from local level and weaken home rule. 9%

6 Release #964 INFORMATION ABOUT THIS REPORT DATES, TIMES OF INTERVIEWING, POPULATION COVERED, INTERVIEW METHOD: March 27, 1978 through April 3, Late afternoon and evenings, all day Saturday and Sunday. Representative cross-section of California adult public. Telephone interviews. SIZE OF SAMPLE: Total interviews 1252 Self-designated partisanship: Democrats 723 Republicans 427 Others 102 Say they are registered as: Democrats 512 Republicans 320 Others 76 Not registered 344 Area --SOuthern California 737 Los Angeles/Orange Other South. Calif Northern California 515 San Francisco Bay Area 268 Other North. Calif. 247 NOTE: When the regional data are combined for statewide analysis weights are applied to reconcile each region to its proper proportion of the State's total. Weighting is also applied to reflect proper sex, age, and current party registration distribution. Sex ~en 633 Women 619 Age years years years years years and older 216 QUESTIONS ASKED: A. Have you heard, seen, or read anything about the Jarvis-Gann property tax limitation measure which will be proposition 13 on the June election ballot? (IF "YES, HAVE HEARD", ASK) From what you presently have heard about the Jarvis-Gann measure (Proposition 13) do you favor it, do you oppose it, or do you think you will need to know more about it before you make up your mind? B. Next, I'm going to read you some of the pro and con arguments that have been expressed toward this measure and I'd like you to tell me your reaction to each one. Here's the first one...do you agree or disagree with that argument? Do you (agree) (disagree) strongly or somewhat?* (See release for wording of arguments.) * In this question, the overall sample was split into two equal subsamples. Each sub-sample was asked two pro and two con arguments. The order of the arguments was rotated. The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is owned by Field Research Corporation and since 1976 has been operated by The Field Institute, " non-profit, non-partisan research group engaged in conducting studies of public opinion on issues of social significance. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.

7 e-,~ _. ) C. Have you seen or heard anything about another ballot proposition which will be on the June ballot -- Proposition 8 which has to do with the tax rate on owner occupied dwellings? (IF "YES, HAVE HEARD", ASK) From what you presently have heard about Proposition 8 do you favor it, do you oppose it, or do you think you will need to know more about it before you make up your mind? (As you may know) Proposition 8 has to do with taxing owner occupied dwellings at a rate lower than that levied on other property. It also says that taxes levied on other property can't be increased as a result of lowering the tax rate levied on owner occupied dwellings. D. Do you feel the basic idea of Proposition 8 which is giving the State legislature the power to tax owner occupied dwellings at a rate lower than other property, is a good idea or a bad idea? E. Have you seen or heard anything about the property tax relief bill -- also called the Behr bill -- which was recently passed by the legislature and signed by the Governor? F. Well, (as you know) the Behr bill uses a large part of the present and anticipated state budget surplus to provide for a 30% reduction in homeowners' property taxes and doubles the renters income tax credit. It also increases special benefits for senior citizen homeowners and renters, and it places some limits on the amount of taxes that state and local governments can levy. a. Do you think that the Behr bill provides more than enough tax relief, just enough property tax relief, or not enough tax relief? b. In order for the Behr bill to become law, voters must first approve Proposition 8 on the June ballot -- the one which changes state constitution so as to allow the legislature to tax owner occupied dwellings at a lower rate than commercial business property. As things stand now, do you think you will vote YES or NO on Proposition 8 on the June ballot?

8 r ~ J SURVEY METHOD Interviews in this survey were made by telephone with respondents in their homes. Sampled homes are drawn in accordance with a probability sample design that gives all areas of the state and all neighborhoods a properly proportionate chance to be included. Telephone numbers are randomly generated by computer in proportion to local prefix allocation density to remove non-listed telephone biases. Up to four calls are made to each number at different times to reach one adult in each household. Adult respondent is selected for interview using an objective, self-weighted procedure to provide a balance of age and sex. SAMPLING RELIABILITY Since sampling points are assigned across the state with a probability in proportion to population, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, along with political and social opinions are assumed to be represented proportionately. However, to assure representativeness all selection probabilities related to age, sex, geographic area and political registration are reconciled by comp~ter weighting programs to remove normal biases due to sampling variability. These procedures allow reliable projections to be made to the population of California adults reachable through the techniques employed. These projections can be made by applying reliability estimates to the statistics obtained in the sample. The sampling reliability of data from this sample is shown below. These figures represent an estimate of average sampling tolerances at the 95% confidence level; that is, the chances are about 19 our of 20 that if the whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of the complete census would not be found to deviate from the obtained survey findings by more than plus or minus the amount shown below. Sample Size Plus/minus sampling tolerance (inpercerttage points) POLL OPERATION AND SPONSORSHIP The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent non-partisan media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is owned by Field Research Corporation and since 1976 has been operated by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan research group engaged in conducting studies of public opinion on issues of social significance. The Institute receives its financial support from academic, governmental, media and private sources.