Voters Ages 50+ and the 2016 Election: Thoughts on Social Security and Presidential Leadership

Transcription

1 Voters Ages 50+ and the 2016 Election: Thoughts on Social Security and Presidential Leadership Findings from a national survey of voters age 50 and older conducted in March 2016 for AARP By Hart Research Associates and GS Strategy Group

2 About AARP AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, with a membership of nearly 38 million, that helps people turn their goals and dreams into real possibilities, strengthens communities and fights for the issues that matter most to families such as healthcare, employment and income security, retirement planning, affordable utilities and protection from financial abuse. We advocate for individuals in the marketplace by selecting products and services of high quality and value to carry the AARP name as well as help our members obtain discounts on a wide range of products, travel, and services. A trusted source for lifestyle tips, news and educational information, AARP produces AARP The Magazine, the world's largest circulation magazine; AARP Bulletin; AARP TV & Radio; AARP Books; and AARP en Español, a Spanish-language website addressing the interests and needs of Hispanics. AARP does not endorse candidates for public office or make contributions to political campaigns or candidates. The AARP Foundation is an affiliated charity that provides security, protection, and empowerment to older persons in need with support from thousands of volunteers, donors, and sponsors. AARP has staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Learn more at The views expressed herein are for information, debate, and discussion, and do not necessarily represent official policies of AARP. Acknowledgments Hart Research Associates and GS Strategy Group administered the survey and prepared the report for AARP. For additional information about this report, contact S. Kathi Brown of AARP s Research Center at skbrown@aarp.org. Media inquiries should be directed to AARP s Media Relations Office at media@aarp.org. 2

3 Methodology Overview A total of 1,659 likely 2016 general election voters age 50 and older were interviewed. This total includes oversample interviews among 300 African-American/black and 357 Hispanic/Latino likely voters age 50 and older. The total among each group is 420 African Americans/blacks and 427 Hispanics/Latinos. Interviewing was conducted February 27 through March 6, 2016, via landlines and cell phones. The margins of error are ±3.0 percentage points for the full sample, ±4.8 among African Americans/blacks, ±4.8 among Hispanics/Latinos. Tolerances are higher for subgroups of these populations. 3

4 Selecting a President

5 Many older voters have yet to decide on their presidential vote. Although we don't yet know who the candidates will be, if the general election for PRESIDENT were held today, how would you vote? 37% 43% 20% Democratic candidate Republican candidate Undecided 5

6 Presidential Preference, by Key Subgroups Democratic candidate Republican candidate Undecided All voters age 50/older 37% 43% 20% Men Women 33% 40% 46% 41% 21% 19% Whites African Americans Hispanics 88% 57% 48% 3% 24% 21% 9% 19% Age 50 to 59 Age 60 to 69 Age 70/older 39% 39% 34% 41% 44% 44% 20% 17% 22% Independents Battleground states 17% 36% 27% 43% 56% 21% 6

7 Leadership is a paramount candidate quality. When considering your vote for president, how important do you consider the following qualities in a candidate? important quality Leadership 86% Shares my values 66% Experience 57% 7

8 Importance of shared values and experience varies across partisan spectrum. Proportions who say each is a very important quality in a candidate when they are considering their vote for president Democratic voters By Party Identification Independents Republican voters Leadership 87% 78% 89% Shares my values 63% 60% 71% Experience 70% 52% 46% 8

9 Older voters most want to hear candidates position on healthcare, living independently, Social Security, and the deficit. How helpful would it be in your vote decisions to learn about a presidential candidate s plan for this? helpful Fairly helpful Improving healthcare Helping seniors live safely/independently Social Security Budget deficit Taxes People s financial security in retirement Medicare 73% 68% 70% 69% 67% 68% 63% 88% 87% 86% 86% 85% 84% 84% Age discrimination 44% 67% 9

10 Social Security is equally important across partisan lines; some variations emerge on other issues. Proportions saying it would be very helpful in their vote decisions to learn about a presidential candidate s plan for each By Party Identification Improving healthcare Helping seniors live independently Social Security Reducing the deficit Taxes Retirement security Medicare Age discrimination Democratic voters 80% 75% 73% 56% 61% 74% 65% 51% Independents 68% 65% 68% 71% 65% 62% 59% 40% Republican voters 69% 62% 69% 81% 75% 65% 62% 38% 10

11 Older/retired voters assign greater importance in many areas, but especially healthcare, Social Security and living independently. Proportions saying it would be very helpful in their vote decisions to learn about a presidential candidate s plan for each Age 50 to 64 Age 65/older Employed Retired Improving healthcare 70% 76% 69% 75% Social Security 69% 72% 66% 73% Helping seniors live independently 63% 72% 59% 72% Reducing the deficit 67% 71% 66% 70% Taxes 65% 68% 70% 66% Retirement security 68% 68% 63% 70% Medicare 60% 65% 57% 66% Age discrimination 41% 46% 37% 47% 11

12 The Economy and Personal Finance

13 Views of the economy are mixed. How would you rate the national economy these days? 43% 55% 28% 5% /fairly good /fairly bad 13

14 Economic views are shaped by partisanship. How would you rate the national economy these days? All voters age 50/older /fairly good 43% /fairly bad 55% Presidential vote: Democrat Republican Undecided Party ID: Democratic voters Independents Republican voters 5% 66% 22% 47% 62% 42% 26% 28% 30% 77% 51% 35% 55% 73% 14

15 Most people are satisfied with their personal financial situation. How satisfied do you feel about your own financial situation today? 70% 26% 5% Satisfied 28% 13% Dissatisfied 15

16 ...though there is a significant socioeconomic imbalance. How satisfied do you feel about your own financial situation today? High school grad or less Some college College graduates Postgraduate education Satisfied 67% 67% 75% 81% Dissatisfied 24% 17% Whites African Americans Hispanics 5% 72% 66% 65% 28% 27% 32% 33% 16

17 Nearly 40 percent of people are dissatisfied with their retirement savings. How satisfied do you feel about the amount of money you have saved for retirement? 58% 37% 22% 5% Satisfied 21% 28% Dissatisfied 17

18 Widespread Concerns about Reaching Economic Goals. Looking ahead to the next five years or so, how do you feel about being able to achieve your economic and financial goals? More hopeful/confident More worried/concerned Not sure By satisfaction with personal financial situation 39% 49% 51% 40% 43% 43% Hopeful/ confident Worried/ concerned Satisfied 47% 41% Dissatisfied 18% 70% 12% 5% 9% 28% 14% All voters age 50/older African Americans Hispanics 18

19 Women, voters in their 50s, and less-educated voters are most worried for the future. Looking ahead to the next five years or so, how do you feel about being able to achieve your economic and financial goals? Hopeful/confident Worried/Concerned Net hopeful All voters age 50/older Men Women Age 50 to 59 Age 60 to 69 Age 70/older Whites African Americans Hispanics High school grad/less Some college College graduates Postgraduate education Retired Employed 5% 39% 41% 36% 38% 38% 39% 37% 51% 43% 32% 36% 41% 57% 38% 41% 28% 49% 45% 53% 56% 47% 45% 51% 40% 43% 55% 51% 48% 32% 47% 51%

20 Women without college degrees are feeling more financial pressure than other voters in this age cohort. Non-college graduates Men Women College graduates Men Women Dissatisfied with personal financial situation 27% 35% 18% 24% Dissatisfied with retirement savings Worried about reaching future economic goals 38% 50% 44% 56% 28% 25% 37% 33% 46% 5% 20

21 One in three feels that DC gridlock has seriously affected their financial situation. Do you feel your personal finances have been negatively affected by gridlock in Washington? 71% Affected a great deal A little 9% Some 26% A great deal 36% 24% 28% Party ID: Democratic voters Independents Republican voters Whites African Americans Hispanic Achieving financial goals: Hopeful/confident Worried/concerned 32% 38% 40% 38% 28% 24% 22% 48% 5% Affected Not affected 21

22 Financial shortfalls worry retirees and nonretirees alike. What would you say is your biggest challenge or struggle right now in retirement? Retirees Net cost of living concerns 34% Financial problems, not having enough money, financial stability Paying my bills, keeping up with mortgage, other bills Not being able to support myself, my family My health, being healthy Healthcare costs, having enough money to pay for medical expenses Cost of medication, not being able to afford medicines (aggregated volunteered comments) 5% 19% 4% 4% 11% 9% 4% What is your greatest worry or concern as you prepare for retirement? Non-retirees Not having enough money, no savings, don t have plans for retirement Having enough money to retire Whether or not Social Security will be there Healthcare costs, affordability, no other comments Concerns about the economy, economic issues 28% Hope to be in good health, maintain my health 25% 13% 12% 7% 4% 3% 22

23 In their Own Words. What would you say is your biggest challenge or struggle right now in retirement? What is your greatest worry or concern as you prepare for retirement? I get $608 a month and can t live on that. I worked two jobs all my life, and I'm falling thru the cracks. Retiree The money won't be there for me when it's time. All the money paid into Social Security will be gone or won't last. And this is money that I have paid in. Retiree Financial stability, having enough money to pay bills, go to the doctor, etc., without having to rely on anyone else to support me Non-retiree 28% Having enough money for healthcare, retirement, college, and assisting aging 5% parents at the same time: I haven t had a raise in years. Non-retiree 23

24 Social Security

25 Strengthening Social Security is uniformly viewed as very important. How important is it to you that the government take action to make Social Security financially sound for future generations? 97% important 83% Important 5% 2% 28% Not important Men Women Age 50 to 59 Age 60 to 69 Age 70/older important Whites African Americans Hispanics Party ID: Democratic voters Independents Republican voters High school grad/less Some college College graduates Postgraduate education 82% 83% 78% 86% 86% 82% 90% 86% 85% 83% 81% 88% 85% 77% 77% 25

26 Having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership. How important is it that presidential candidates lay out their plans to update Social Security for future generations? Having a plan for Social Security is a basic threshold for presidential leadership. 95% important Party ID: Democratic voters Independents Republican voters 78% 77% 76% 82% Strongly agree Party ID: Democratic voters Independents Republican voters 54% 49% 42% important 77% Age 50 to 59 Age 60 to 69 Age 70/older Whites important African 83% Americans Hispanics 4% 5% 72% 82% 78% 76% 87% 83% 28% Strongly agree 48% Age 50 to 59 Age 60 to 69 Age 70/older Whites African Americans Hispanics 14% 43% 53% 48% 46% 63% 54% Important Not important Agree Disagree 26

27 About Voters Age 50+

28 Political Profile Party Identification Political Ideology Democratic voters Independents/ other/not sure Republican voters Liberals Moderates Conservatives 40% important 83% 41% 33% 40% 19% 28% 20% 5% 28

29 SURVEY METHODOLOGY A total of 1,659 likely 2016 general election voters age 50 and older were interviewed for this survey, via landlines and cell phones, from February 27 through March 6, This includes oversample interviews among 300 African-American/black and 357 Hispanic/Latino likely voters age 50 and older. The total number of interviews among each of these populations is 420 African Americans/blacks and 427 Hispanics/Latinos (Spanish-language interviewing was available for Hispanic respondents who chose it). Thirty-two percent (32%) of interviews were conducted on cell phones. The survey samples were drawn from voter lists of 100,000 records nationwide for the main sample; 36,000 records for the African-American oversample, and 42,000 records for the Hispanic oversample. Records were included for voters who have voted in either the 2012 or 2014 general elections or who registered to vote after the 2012 election. Records were obtained through a national list compiled from state voter files. Universes of 140,252,399 voters for the main sample, 11,808,728 voters for the African-American oversample, and 11,431,517 for the Hispanic oversample were created using these vote history criteria. An Nth select was then used in order to create the sample, ensuring that the final sample represented the voting universes in a geographically proportionate distribution. Potential survey respondents were screened to confirm they are, in fact, registered to vote, that they are likely to vote in the November 2016 general election, and that they are age 50 or older. Small demographic weights were applied to the completed interviews to ensure the survey sample is representative of the likely 50+ electorate. The margins of error are ±3.0 percentage points for the full sample, ±4.8 among African Americans/blacks, ±4.8 among Hispanics/Latinos. Tolerances are higher for subgroups of each population. 29