Tennessee 50+ Voters. January

Transcription

1 Tennessee 50+ Voters January

2 Methodology AARP took a bipartisan approach to this research, using two firms, BSG and GSSG to conduct and advise on all phases of research design and execution. 800 telephone interviews were conducted from November 30-December 5, 2017 with registered voters ages 50+ in Tennessee. At the 95% confidence level, the margin of error for the entire sample is ± 3.5% Due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to 100%. Memphis/West: 23% Nashville/Central: 32% Cumberland/SE: 17% East/NE: 28% For more information, contact S. Kathi Brown of AARP Research at skbrown@aarp.org. Inquiries from the Media should be directed to AARP s Media Relations Department at media@aarp.org. 2

3 Demographic Profile Of Tennessee 50+ Voters Age Gender Race Male 47 between between 70 or and and 69 older Female White African-American Native American Hispanic 5% 1% 13% 80% Education Household Income CSR 29% some college or technical school 40% high school or less <$50k $50-100k 28% 48% City Suburb 23% 30% 31% college grad or higher $100k+ 12% Rural 46% AARP Party ID Veteran (self or family) 34% are AARP members 26% Democrat 38% Independent 36% Republican 53% Yes 47% No 3

4 Political Landscape

5 Senator Alexander Is Net Favorable With 50+ Voters; Little Partisan Divide 47% of Democrats have favorable opinion Favorable Unsure/Don t know Unfavorable Overall White Dem Non-white Ind <College Rep College Men Memphis/ West Women Nashville/Central Cumberland/ SE East/NE QTN1: Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable view of Senator Lamar Alexander? 5

6 A Plurality Of Voters 50+ See Alexander As An Independent Senator Which comes closest to your opinion? Senator Lamar Alexander has compromised too often with liberal Democrats in the Senate on things that will harm Tennessee families Senator Lamar Alexander has been an independent senator, working on both sides of the aisle to fight for the best interest of Tennessee families Senator Lamar Alexander has sided too often with conservative Republicans in the Senate on things that will harm Tennessee families Don t know Overall fav/unfav to Alexander 83-7 fav/unfav fav/unfav fav/unfav Dem Ind Rep Q12: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion? 6

7 Though Sen. Alexander Leads On Understanding Challenges Facing Older Americans, Ratings Begin To Dip On Views On Social Security And Medicare How well does this describe Sen. Alexander? (% total well) Overall Democrat Independent Republican Among those who say this describes Alexander Understands the challenges facing older Americans Well fav/unfav Not well fav/unfav Cares about people like you fav/unfav fav/unfav Represents your views on Social Security and Medicare fav/unfav fav/unfav Q5,6,8: How well does this describe Senator Alexander? 7

8 Mindset Of Tennessee 50+ Voters

9 The Majority See Economy On The Rise, With The Country s Economy Just Outpacing Tennessee s Is US/Tennessee economy getting stronger or weaker? Getting stronger Staying same/don't know Getting weaker US economy Tennessee's economy Q15,Q16: In general would you say [the U.S./Tennessee] economy is getting much stronger, getting somewhat stronger, staying the same, getting somewhat weaker or getting much weaker? 9

10 But These Gains Aren t Felt On A Personal Level; Nearly Half Feel Stagnant, With Many More Struggling Than Getting Ahead Which describes your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead Staying the same Struggling to keep up Falling backward Overall Dem Ind Rep <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Memphis/ West Nashville/ Central Cumberland/ SE East/NE Q17: Which of the following comes closest to describing your personal financial situation today? Getting ahead, staying where you are, struggling to keep up, or falling backward? 10

11 On An Open-Ended Basis, Health Care Cost Worries Are Most Top-Of-Mind For 50+ Voters What is the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today? Open end (showing answers >5%) Health care costs 16 Social Security/Medicare not being available 14 Terrorism/war/North Korea threats 11 Economy/jobs not available 8 Financial hardship 7 Donald Trump being president Taxes/tax bill 6 6 Q14: Please briefly describe the biggest fear you have facing you and your family today. Open end question; multiple responses accepted 11

12 Political Divide Ranks As #1 Worry For Tennesseans, But Rising Prices And Terrorism Aren t Far Behind On List Of Concerns How often do you worry about? Very often Somewhat often Total often How divided America and Americans have become #1 for Dem/Ind/Rep Pricies rising faster than your income #2 for Dem and Ind Threat of terrorism in our country today #2 for Rep Not being able to afford the health care you need Having to take care of an aging parent or family member Not being able to retire when you want to, for financial reasons Q22-Q27: Do you worry about this very often, somewhat often, from time to time or almost never? 12

13 Just Three-Fifths Of Voters Are Confident In Their Retirement Future, With Very Few Expressing Strong Confidence How confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably through your retirement? Very Confident Somewhat Confident Total Confident Overall Dem Ind Rep White Non-white <$40k $40-75k $75k+ Q18: Overall how confident are you that you will have enough money to live comfortably throughout your retirement years? 13

14 Tennessee Issues

15 Drug Epidemic, The Economy, And Health Care Seen As Tennessee s Leading Issues Today, Though There s Some Variation Between Parties What is the single most important issue facing Tennessee today? Open end (showing answers >5%) Overall Democrat Independent Republican Drugs/heroin epidemic Economy/jobs Health care/cost of health care Taxes/tax bill Education Q13: In your opinion, what is the single most important issue facing Tennessee today? Open end question; multiple responses accepted 15

16 Proposals Addressing Opioid Epidemic And Expanding Access To Internet/Tech See High Support Across Parties Do you support or oppose this proposal? Providing additional services and addiction treatment for those who suffer from opioid addiction Expanding access to internet and technology in Tennessee Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Overall Overall Dem Dem Ind Ind Rep Rep QTN4-5: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 16

17 And Senator Alexander Gets Net Positive Ratings On His Efforts On Opioids How well does this describe Senator Alexander? Is doing a good job fighting the opioid crisis Well Don't know Not Well Overall fav/unfav to Alexander fav/unfav to Alexander Dem Ind Rep Q7: Is doing a good job fighting the opioid crisis. How well does this describe Senator Alexander? 17

18 50+ Voters Across Parties Respond Positively To Senator Alexander On These Issues If you knew Sen. Alexander was prioritizing this issue would you be more or less favorable to him? Reducing federal regulations on education and giving states greater control of their schools Overall 45 Protecting Tennessee s parks and environment for future generations to enjoy Much more favorable Somewhat more favorable Total more favorable 73 Overall Overall Increasing and developing clean energy sources in Tennessee Dem Dem Dem Ind Ind Ind Rep Rep Rep Very fav Very fav Very fav Sen. Alexander Fav Smwt Fav Unfav Smwt Fav Unfav Smwt Fav Unfav Don't know Don't know Don't know QTN7-9: Now I m going to read you a few issues Senator Lamar Alexander could focus on. For each, please tell me whether it makes you more or less favorable to him. 18

19 Cost Of Living Is The Greatest Driver Of Quality Of Life For Tennesseans 50+ When it comes to maintaining or improving your quality of life, which of the following would you say is most important to you, overall? Ensuring a low cost of living 39 #1 for Ind/Rep Maintaining clean air and water 30 #1 for Dem (37%) #2 for Ind (33%), Rep (22%) Increasing funding for public universities and community colleges 11 Easing traffic congestion 9 Increasing access to internet and technology 4 Expanding access to outdoor recreation opportunities 1 QTN10. Now I'd like to ask you about issues facing Tennessee in particular. When it comes to maintaining or improving your quality of life, which of the following would you say is most important to you, overall? 19

20 Senior Issues

21 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Tennesseans Are Largely Distrusting Of Congress When It Comes To Social Security Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Social Security that will harm seniors Congress won't make changes to Social Security and the program will go bankrupt Overall fav/unfav to Alexander fav/unfav to Alexander AARP Members Dem Ind Rep Q30: Which of the following worries you more? 21

22 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS And The Same Holds True For Medicare To An Even Greater Degree Which concerns you more? Congress will make changes to Medicare that would hurt seniors and near-retirees Congress won't make any changes to Medicare and future retirees and our kids will pay the price Overall fav/unfav to Alexander fav/unfav to Alexander AARP Members Dem Ind Rep Q31: Which of the following worries you more? 22

23 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS On Reforms, Expansion To Dental Sees Strong Support, While Premium Support Is A Non-Starter Do you support or oppose? Premium Support Medicare would no longer pay for health care services directly but instead would provide each senior with a set amount of money to help purchase an insurance plan in the private marketplace. Support Don't know Oppose Strongly Oppose Overall Overall Expanding Medicare to pay for dental care services Strongly Support 59 AARP Members AARP Members Dem Dem Ind Ind Rep Rep Q32: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal, which is sometimes called 'premium support? QTN6: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 23

24 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Majority Of Supporters Favorable Toward Medicaid Even Republicans, But Support Lacks Intensity Among Non-Dems Favorability toward Medicaid program Very favorable Somewhat favorable Total favorable Overall Dem Ind Rep Q33: Thinking about the Medicaid program generally, would you say you have a very favorable view of Medicaid, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of Medicaid? 24

25 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS This Leaves Many In Opposition To A Block Grant System For The Program Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? The current approach where states determine who qualifies for Medicaid and what services are covered within federal guidelines, and the states and federal government split the costs Change Medicaid so the federal government gives each state a set amount of money, known as a block grant, and the state decides how much state funding to give the program, who gets coverage and what services are covered Overall Dem Ind Rep Q34: Which approach to Medicaid would you prefer? 25

26 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Compromise Is Not A Dirty Word: Voters Support Senator Alexander s Bipartisan Agreement To Lower Health Care Premiums At More Than 3:1 Ratio Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? Support Don't know Oppose fav/unfav to Alexander fav/unfav to Alexander Overall Dem Ind Rep Q29: Based on what you know today, do you support or oppose the bipartisan health care agreement made by Senators Alexander and Murray that provides government funding to lower premiums for middle class Americans? 26

27 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Insurance and Drug Companies Seen As Top Reason For Rising Health Care Costs; Many Republicans Blame ACA What is most responsible for rising health care costs? Drug companies charging too much for medications and treatment 50 #1 for all parties Health care insurance companies being too focused on profits and not people's health 44 #2 for Dems, Inds Doctors, hospitals, and other providers ordering unnecessary treatments and over-testing The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare #2 for Reps (43%) Medical malpractice lawsuits 12 An aging U.S. population 10 Q28: What do you think is most responsible for rising health care costs in this country? You may select up to two things. 27

28 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Older Tennesseans Are Largely Dissatisfied With Prescription Drug Monopoly; Pharmaceutical Companies And Their Pricing Tactics Are Largely To Blame Which comes closest to your own opinion? Prices for prescription drugs are the result of a pharmaceutical corporation monopoly that controls the prices Prices for prescription drugs are determined on a free, open market that is subject to the laws of supply and demand Overall Dem Ind Rep Q41: Which of the following comes closest to your own opinion? 28

29 SOCIAL SECURITY MEDICARE MEDICAID HEALTH CARE PRESCRIPTION DRUGS To Address This, Older Voters Strongly Support An Array Of Reforms; More Than 7-In-10 Republicans Even Support Capping Drug Company Profits Do you support or oppose this proposal? (% strongly support) Allow Medicare to negotiate with drug companies for lower prices Strongly support Somewhat support Total support Total support among... Dem Ind Rep Allow lower cost generic drugs to come to the prescription drug market faster Ensure transparency in drug pricing Limit the profits that drug companies can make on medications Close loopholes that allow drug companies to prevent consumers from accessing lower priced generic drugs Close loopholes that allow pharmaceutical companies to keep prices high Q35-40: Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose this proposal? 29

30 Constituent Outreach

31 Most Communication With Constituents Is Received Via Mail And Social Media; And While Mail Is Largely Preferred, A Significant Number Would Also Like More Town Halls Which ways have you received info from Sen. Alexander? Which would you most prefer? Currently receive Would prefer Mail sent to your home Updates posted on Facebook or other social media Updates posted to the senator's website 8 14 Events or town halls the senator holds in your community 3 20 None of the above Q10: In which of the following ways have you received news or information from Senator Lamar Alexander? Multiple responses accepted Q11: And in which of the following ways would you most like to receive news or information from Senator Lamar Alexander? Multiple responses accepted 31

32 Local And Cable TV News Dominate Sources Of Information; Family, Friends And Organizations More Important For Voters 50+ Than Social Media Which do you rely for news/info on political issues and government? Which do you do at least a few times a week? Local television news 72 Watch political news on cable television channels 71 Cable television news Newspapers and magazines Your family and friends Radio Watch political news on local television channels Read political news in print Read political news online Facebook 24 Listen to political news on the radio 37 The organizations you belong to 20 Log on to Facebook 34 Twitter 6 Read Twitter 8 Q42: Which of the following sources do you rely on to obtain news and information about political issues and government? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. Q43: Which of the following do you do at least a few times a week? Please tell me all that apply. Multiple responses accepted. 32