2005 BC Election Polling Program Wave 2. May 2005

Transcription

1 200 BC Election Polling Program Wave 2 May 200

2 Introduction and Methodology Gregg, Kelly, Sullivan & Woolstencroft: The Strategic Counsel is pleased to present Wave 2 of the 200 BC Election Polling Program. Telephone interviewing for Wave 2 was conducted between May 9th and 11th, 200. The sample was divided into equal parts: NET West (Northern Shore,, Richmond and Delta) East (Remaining lower mainland) Fraser Valley/ (al Districts of Fraser Valley, -Similkameen, Central, Northern and Thomson Nicola) Northern British Columbia/ (Northern British Columbia, Coast, and Charlottes) Sample Size The weighted province-wide sample is based on 1,000 which yields a margin of error of times in 20. The margin of error for regional samples is times in 20, while the margin of error for is.0 19 times in 20. Note: Proportions may not sum to 100 due to rounding S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 2

3 Key Conclusions With five days remaining before the May 17th provincial election, BC Liberals hold a commanding lead (13 percentage points) over the NDP. The Liberals are strongest in the /Fraser Valley where they hold a 23 percentage point advantage. The Liberals are also performing particularly well in the where they are leading the NDP by 17 percentage points. During the course of the election, the Liberal campaign has been successful in hardening its support. However, our poll results show that NDP in a tight race with the Liberals on and Kootneys/Northern BC which are traditional strongholds for the NDP. However, most British Columbians recognize that the Liberals will win this election. Over 7-in-10 say that the Liberals will win the election. There is some risk of compliancy among Liberal supporters. S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 3

4 Key Conclusions (cont d) As shown in the Wave 1 survey, the Liberals are clearly winning this election based on the strength of the BC economy. After a decade of slow economic growth under the previous NDP government, British Columbians do not want to gamble with the provincial election by electing another NDP government. A plurality of British Columbians believes the province is currently on the right track. British Columbians are more concerned about good government and a strong economy than a party keeping its promises. Moreover, the Liberals have won this campaign partly because they are perceived as having a strong team of candidates. Attracting star candidates has helped to put a fresh face on the Liberal government. Despite the significant edge for the Liberals over the NDP in terms of popular support, and the Liberals edge in momentum when the writ was dropped, the NDP is perceived to have picked up momentum during the campaign. Carole James clearly won the leaders debate. But in the end, the public has preferred the Liberal campaign theme that the economy is more important than just following through with previous electoral promises. S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 4

5 Key Conclusions (cont d) Carole James reputation as a party leader has been greatly enhanced in this campaign. Carole James is emerging from this campaign as a stronger leader who has the potential of causing problems for the BC Liberals down the road. The Liberal government will be facing a stronger and more self-confident NDP opposition. Overall, the BC Liberals are winning this election because BCers have greater trust and confidence in their ability to manage the provincial economy even though British Columbians have generally been disappointed by the performance of the provincial government, particularly the Premier. While James has made a positive impression on the electorate, BCers are not prepared take any risks in electing a NDP government at this time. British Columbians are slightly more knowledgeable about the single transfer vote than in the first wave of polling. However, fully 82 continue to report knowing only a little or nothing about this issue. Moreover, it appears that opposition to the single transfer vote has increased as British Columbians have become slightly more knowledgeable about this issue. S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l

6 Is BC on the right or wrong track? Total West East Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= NET on the right track NET on the wrong track Neither/DK/NA/Ref Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Q.1 Right now, do you think the province is on the right track or the wrong track? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 6

7 Which party has momentum into the election? Total West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Liberal Party New Democratic Party (NDP) Green Party None of them Other 1 <1 1 <1 1 <1 1-1 < DK/NA/Ref Q.2 (Wave 1) As you may know, there is to be a provincial election in May. From what you can tell, which party, if any, is going into the campaign with the most momentum? Q.2 (Wave 2) As you may know, there is to be a provincial election on May 17 th. From what you can tell, which party, if any, has been gaining the most momentum and popularity over the course of the campaign? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 7

8 Is this election about trust or about providing good government? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ The election is about trust and keeping election promises The Election is about providing effective government and ensuring that the economy continues to grow DK/NA/Ref Q.3 There has been a lot of discussion about what this election is about. Some people say the election is about trust and keeping election promises. Other people say that the election is about providing effective government and ensuring that the economy continues to grow. Which of these two point of view best reflects your own? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 8

9 Is it time for change in government or the wrong time for change? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ It s time for a change and a new government should be voted in Now would be the wrong time to make a change and we should return the Liberals to power DK/NA/Ref Q.4 Some people have been saying its time for a change and a new government should be voted in. Other people have said that now would be the wrong time to make a change and we should return the Liberals to power. Which one of these two views best represents your own? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 9

10 Is it too risky for BC to switch to an NDP government right now? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ The provincial government really had very little to do with this improvement, so there s no risk in changing to a NDP government Without the right approach the economy will slow down and its too risky to switch to the NDP DK/NA/Ref Q. Most people have been telling us that the B.C economy is in pretty good shape right now. Some say the provincial government really had very little to do with this improvement, so there s no risk in changing to a NDP government. Others say that without the right approach the economy will slow down and its too risky to switch to the NDP. Which one of these two views best represents your own? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 10

11 Summary Of Election Views: Which Of Party... Will win the election Had the best advertising Most impressive leader in Debate Has fielded the best team of candidates Ran the best campaign Liberal Party New Democratic Party (NDP) Green Party None of them DK/NA/Ref Q.6-10 Base: Total sample S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 11

12 Which party will win the election? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Liberal Party New Democratic Party Green Party Don t know/too close to call Q.6 Which party do you think will win the election, will it be the? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 12

13 Which party had the best advertising? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Liberal Party New Democratic Party Green Party None Don t know/too close to call Q.7 Which party had the best advertising? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 13

14 Which party s leader was most impressive in the debate? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Gordon Campbell leader of the Liberal Party Carole James of the New Democratic Party Adrianne Carr of the Green Party None Don t know/too close to call Q.8 Who impressed you most in the leader s debate (ROTATE LIST): Gordon Campbell, leader of the Liberal Party, Carole James of the NDP, or Adrianne Carr of the Green Party? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 14

15 Which party has the most impressive candidates? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Liberal Party New Democratic Party Green Party None Don t know/too close to call Q.9 Which party has fielded the best team of candidates? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 1

16 Which party ran the best campaign overall? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Liberal Party New Democratic Party Green Party None Don t know/too close to call Q.10 Overall, which party do you think ran the best campaign? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 16

17 How often have you voted in previous elections? Total (n=1000) (n=400) West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ All of them Most Few None DK/NA/Ref <1 - Q.11 Thinking back to all municipal, provincial and federal elections where you were eligible to vote would you say you voted in most of them, a few of them or none of them? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 17

18 Is BC knowledgeable of the Single Transfer Vote? Total West East Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= A lot A little Nothing at all DK/NA/Ref < Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Q.12 When the provincial election is held on May 17th, in addition to voting for MLA's, there will also be a referendum on changing BC s electoral system from the current system to a Single Transferable Vote or STV system. Would you say you know a lot, a little or nothing at all about the new electoral system that is being proposed? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 18

19 Is there support for the Single Transfer Vote? Total West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= For proposed changes Against proposed changes Undecided Will not vote DK/NA/Ref Q.13 And do you intend to vote for or against the proposed change to BC s electoral system? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 19

20 How will BC vote if an election was held today? Total West East Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Liberal candidate NDP candidate Green Party candidate Other Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Q.1a Q.1b Base: If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you d be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area? In that case, which party s candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time?. Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or Green Party candidate in your area? Those who gave a first vote. Excludes undecided/don t know/refused/won t vote S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 20

21 How does today s BC Vote compare to the 2001 Election Total West East Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Liberal candidate NDP candidate Green Party candidate Other Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Q.1a If the election was being held tomorrow, do you think you d be supporting the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or the Green Party candidate in your area? Q.1b In that case, which party s candidate in your local area would you be leaning towards at this time?. Would it be the (ROTATE LIST) Liberal candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or Green Party candidate in your area? 2001: Source: Elections B.C. Base: Those who gave a first vote. Excludes undecided/don t know/refused/won t vote S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 21

22 What is the Liberal Pool of Voters and Non-Voters? Current Vote Total Liberal Vote NDP Vote Green Vote Other Vote/DK Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Hard Liberal Soft Liberal Potential Liberal Non-Liberal Base: Total sample S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 22

23 What is the NDP Pool of Voters and Non-Voters? Current Vote Total Liberal Vote NDP Vote Green Vote Other Vote/DK Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Hard Liberal Soft Liberal Potential Liberal Non-Liberal Base: Total sample S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 23

24 What is the Green Pool of Voters and Non-Voters? Current Vote Total Liberal Vote NDP Vote Green Vote Other Vote/DK Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Hard Liberal Soft Liberal Potential Liberal Non-Liberal Base: Total sample S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 24

25 Possible Switchers Current Vote Total Liberal Vote NDP Vote Green Vote Other Vote/DK Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Liberal to NDP Liberal to Green NDP to Liberal NDP to Green Green to Liberal Green to NDP All others Q.16 Which party s candidate would be your second choice? Would it be (ROTATE LIST) the Liberal candidate in your area, the NDP candidate in your area, or Green Party candidate in your area? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 2

26 How solid is the Party Vote? Current Vote Total Liberal NDP Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= NET Likely Very likely Somewhat likely Not too likely Not at all likely NET Not Likely DK/NA/Ref Green Q.17 How likely is it that you might switch your vote to your second choice between now and the election on May 17, is it very likely somewhat likely not too likely or not at all likely? Base: Those who gave a first and second vote S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 26

27 Are you likely to vote for the NDP because you want them to win or because you think there needs to be a strong opposition? Total (n=331) (n=123) West (n=61) East (n=62) (n=79) Fraser Valley/ (n=4) Northern BC/ (n=7) Vote for the NDP because want them to win and form the next government Vote for the NDP because we need a strong opposition DK/NA/Ref Q.18 Are you likely to vote for the NDP because you want them to win and form the next government or because you think we need a strong opposition? Base: Those who indicated they would vote or are leaning towards the NDP S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 27

28 Who is the best Premier for British Columbia? Total West East Fraser Valley/ Northern BC/ Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 1 Wave 2 n= Gordon Campbell of the Liberals Carole James of the NDP Adriane Carr of the Green Party None of them Other <1 <1 <1 - < <1 1 <1 Undecided/DK/NA/Ref Q.19 From your point of view, who would be the best Premier for British Columbia, would it be? S t r I c t l y P r I v I l e g e d a n d C o n f I d e n t I a l 28