01 Political Landscape

Transcription

1 September, 2015

2 Methodology Completed surveys with 1626 residents of Ontario between September 3 rd & 8 th, surveys completed by online panel & 799 surveys completed by live agent phone calls Respondents had to be over 18 years of age Quotas were based by region, age & gender, based on Ontario profile from 2011 Census Data weighted by age, gender & riding turnout based on 2011 Census & 2011 Federal Election turnout Accuracy of overall sample is +/- 2.43% 2

3 01 Political Landscape

4 A Province divided The government has done a bad job, but is better than the alternatives 11% No opinion 14% The government has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected 18% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal 7.7% 14.1% 4.2% 18.1% 10.5% 15.4% 45.8% 67.7% Ontario NDP 7.5% 22.5% 52.0% 9.5% The government has done a bad job, and should not be re-elected 40% The government has done a good job, but it s time to give someone else a chance 17% Ontario Green Another Party 9.1% 12.2% 10.1% 12.8% 13.5% 24.9% 47.0% 60.8% Thinking over the last year with the Liberal government in Ontario, which position is closer to your own? Undecided 5.3% 13.3% 29.0% 12.2% 4

5 Prioritization of issues top of mind ECONOMY 34.9% AUTO INSURANCE 15.2% JOBS 34.8% PUBLIC TRANSIT 14.7% HEALTHCARE 34.2% BUDGET 14.7% ENERGY PRICES 32.2% INFRASTRUCTURE 14.0% TAXES 27.4% CRIME/SAFETY 13.9% EDUCATION/SCHOOL SYSTEM 23.5% DISABILITIES 11.9% ENVIRONMENT 22.9% CHILDCARE 10.6% DEBT 19.7% TRAFFIC CONGESTION 9.3% HOUSING 18.9% SEX EDUCATION CURRICULUM 7.3% SPENDING 18.1% BUSINESS 5.7% HYDRO ONE OUTSOURCING 18.1% IMMIGRATION 1.7% ACCOUNTABILITY/TRANSPARENCY 17.9% Other: 8.8% HOMELESSNESS/POVERTY 16.4% Nothing 6.3% SENIORS 15.6% Refused/Don t know/unsure 4.0% 5

6 Prioritization of issues by voting intention ECONOMY ENERGY PRICES TAXES DEBT HEALTHCARE JOBS HYDRO ONE OUTSOURCING SPENDING ACCOUNTABILITY/TRANSPARE EDUCATION/SCHOOL SYSTEM BUDGET AUTO INSURANCE SENIORS ENVIRONMENT CRIME/SAFETY SEX EDUCATION CURRICULUM INFRASTRUCTURE IMMIGRATION HOUSING HOMELESSNESS/POVERTY DISABILITIES PUBLIC TRANSIT TRAFFIC CONGESTION BUSINESS CHILDCARE Other: Nothing Refused/Don t know/unsure PC 37.6% 37.6% 32.4% 25.7% 25.4% 24.4% 23.5% 23.5% 22.3% 18.9% 18.5% 14.6% 14.3% 14.1% 13.2% 12.8% 12.6% 12.0% 11.6% 11.0% 9.7% 9.4% 8.8% 7.4% 5.9% 1.4% 8.3% 3.2% 6 Liberal 27.7% 24.7% 18.0% 12.3% 14.0% 14.0% 28.5% 12.5% 15.8% 13.9% 25.5% 16.0% 4.4% 15.8% 5.8% 19.6% 16.9% 10.6% 19.5% 9.9% 7.1% 13.6% 1.0% 7.3% 3.7% 39.3% 37.0% 39.5% 5.1% 8.8% NDP 7.5% 5.7% 12.4% 2.4% 4.5% 2.2% 31.6% 31.0% 25.5% 17.2% 46.7% 21.9% 20.2% 17.7% 26.6% 16.4% 15.1% 18.7% 29.1% 12.4% 17.4% 16.3% 16.6% 24.2% 25.2% 42.4%

7 Importance of various government priorities Improve healthcare 46.7% 38.4% 11.5% Slow electricity prices from going up 41.1% 36.0% 17.2% Creating jobs 36.7% 46.7% 12.3% Reliable supply of electricity 29.7% 45.8% 18.6% Improve education 30.9% 44.5% 18.3% 4.4% Fix roads, bridges and public transit 26.4% 46.2% 24.1% Skills and job training 27.9% 43.9% 22.6% 3.9% Reducing annual deficit 24.6% 36.9% 29.7% 5.6% Move to environmentally friendly electricity 24.6% 35.7% 24.8% 11.7% Balancing budget 24.0% 35.2% 30.6% 7.6% Fight climate change 20.5% 33.3% 30.6% 12.9% Improve pension plan 20.2% 30.1% 31.3% 14.7% Extremely important Very important Somewhat important Not important The following is a list of priorities of the Government of Ontario. How important are each of the following priorities to you?

8 Provincial voting intentions Provincial Party Support Provincial Party Support (Decided & Leaning) Another party or candidate 1.4% The Green Party of Ontario 4.5% Unknown 26.4% The New Democratic Party of Ontario 18.6% The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario 23.7% The Liberal Party of Ontario 25.5% Another Party 1.9% The Green Party of Ontario 6.5% The New Democratic Party of Ontario 25.2% The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario 31.4% The Liberal Party of Ontario 35.0% n=1626 n=1326 Thinking of how you feel right now if a provincial election were held tomorrow, in the Province of Ontario, which political party would you be most likely vote for?

9 02 Hydro One, LDC consolidation and privatization

10 53% agree, 40% disagree with Premier s plan to invest heavily in transit and transportation. Clear Urban/Rural split Transit and Transportation Priorities Strongly disagree 23% Not sure/no opinion 7% Strongly agree 19% LondonSWWindsor HamiltonNiagara Peel YorkSimcoeDurham 39.2% 54.0% 46.5% 47.0% 56.0% 33.6% 55.6% 37.7% Somewhat disagree 17% Somewhat agree 34% Toronto Ottawa 20.4% 32.4% 61.6% 70.8% Premier Wynne has announced the government has made transit, transportation & infrastructure its highest priority & will spend over $30 billion in new money for transit, transportation & infrastructure over the next 10 yrs. Do you agree with this plan? 10 East North 35.2% 31.6% 60.7% 62.1%

11 PCs opposite of Liberals. Others very split. Transit & Transportation Priorities Not sure/no opinion 7% Strongly agree 19% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal 20.5% 36.6% 57.2% 75.4% Strongly disagree 23% Ontario NDP 50.2% 45.6% Somewhat disagree 17% Somewhat agree 34% Ontario Green 41.8% 53.9% Another Party 43.1% 42.4% Premier Wynne announced the government made transit, transportation & infrastructure it s highest priority & will spend over $30 billion in new money for transit, transportation & infrastructure over the next 10 years. Do you agree with this plan? 11 Undecided 42.6% 40.8%

12 Majority of political party supporters, even Liberals, disagree with the sale of 60% of Hydro One Hydro One Sale Strongly agree 6% Ontario PC 18.6% 72.0% Not sure/no opinion 13% Somewhat agree 13% Ontario Liberal 30.1% 55.5% Strongly disagree 51% Somewhat disagree 17% Ontario NDP Ontario Green 11.3% 15.5% 80.6% 78.3% Another Party 16.9% 78.0% The provincial government is selling 60% of Hydro One, the provincially owned electricity utility. Do you agree with this plan? Undecided 12.0% 64.6% 12

13 Majority of respondents, including Liberals, disagree with selling 60% of Hydro One, regardless of transit & transportation funding Funding Transit from Hydro One Sale Not sure/no opinion 9% Strongly agree 6% Somewhat agree 16% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal Ontario NDP 14.6% 17.3% 38.1% 51.4% 79.9% 80.6% Strongly disagree 48% Somewhat disagree 21% Ontario Green 18.5% 76.2% Another Party 29.3% 65.7% Premier Wynne has said that the sale of 60% of Hydro One will raise enough money so that $4 billion could be used for transit and transportation spending. Do you agree with this plan? Undecided 13.6% 67.7% 13

14 A balance between importing electricity & increasing Ontario s ability to generate its own power seems to be the reasonable compromise to satisfy the public Do both 42% Import electricity 19% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal Ontario NDP 16.3% 17.9% 27.5% 32.4% 40.2% 39.8% 36.5% 43.9% 45.6% Increase ability to generate our own 39% Ontario Green 0.0% 15.6% 40.7% 43.7% Another Party 35.1% If it were possible to import electricity at a lower cost than generating electricity here in Ontario.. Should we: Import electricity? Should we: Increase our ability to generate our own electricity here in Ontario or Should we: Do both? Undecided 12.4% 32.0% 55.6% 64.9% 14

15 The public sector is more trusted than the private sector by 3 to 1 to manage Ontario s electricity system, with over 1/3 rd that don t know 36.3% Ontario PC 23.6% 40.2% 49.7% Ontario Liberal 16.3% 34.0% Don't know 39% The public sector 46% Ontario NDP 12.3% 27.9% 59.8% 58.7% Ontario Green 10.6% 30.7% The private sector 15% Another Party 27.2% 31.5% 41.3% 28.1% Who do you trust more to manage Ontario s electricity system? Undecided 7.6% 64.3% 15

16 Most respondents (64%) prefer a larger or similarly sized publically owned utility vs. a privately owned utility A similarly sized privately owned utility 7% Don t know or don t care 21% A larger publically owned utility 35% There has been a debate in Ontario about public versus private ownership of local electric utilities and encouraging the consolidation of local electric utilities into larger utilities. A similarly sized publically owned utility 29% Thinking about the ownership and size of your local electric utility, which option do you prefer the most? A larger privately owned utility 8% 16

17 03 Affordability & Reliability

18 44% of respondents expect to pay an extra 10%-29% more than they do today, for their household electricity five years from now 24.0% 20.4% 17.7% 13.9% 10.1% 5.9% 8.1% Less than 10% more 10-19% more 20-29% more 30-39% more 40% - 49% more 50% or more Don t know Thinking about your household electricity bill, how much more do you expect to pay five years from now compared to today? 18

19 Majority of respondents (78%) believe their electricity bill will be more than expected if the province sells 60% of Hydro One Less than expected 5% Ontario PC 5.5% 10.5% 84.0% No impact 17% Ontario Liberal 7.0% 22.5% 70.6% 14.1% Ontario NDP 2.7% 83.2% 13.2% Ontario Green 4.4% 82.4% More than expected 78% Another Party 10.0% 17.1% 72.9% 24.8% If the province sells 60% of Hydro One do you think your electricity bill will change from what you expect? Don't know/undecided 2.4% 72.8% 19

20 61% of respondents believe government waste and mismanagement has a lot of impact on their electricity bills Government waste and mismanagement 61.0% 23.3% 7.0% 6.9% Maintaining electricity infrastructure costs 51.7% 31.7% 7.1% 8.0% Salaries of electricity workers 44.7% 30.0% 13.0% 9.5% Green energy and the environment 40.2% 33.1% 13.9% 9.2% Amount of electricity you consume 38.9% 32.5% 19.2% 5.2% Weak Canadian dollar 28.8% 29.0% 19.2% 12.7% 10.3% A lot A little Not much Nothing Don't know How much of an impact do you think each of the following has on how much you pay for electricity in Ontario? 20

21 Majority of respondents expressed that everyone has a role to play in affordability Ontario Government 65.7% 21.6% 5.9% 5.5% Ontario Energy Board 62.8% 24.2% 4.7% 6.8% Local Utility 53.5% 31.3% 7.5% 5.7% Federal Government 47.5% 28.3% 14.0% 6.4% You and Your Family 45.1% 37.8% 9.2% 4.7% Municipal Government 42.0% 33.3% 15.1% 6.7% Private Sector 26.0% 36.5% 19.5% 8.0% 10.1% A lot A little Not much Nothing Don't know How much responsibility do you think each of the following should have in ensuring that your household electricity bill is affordable? 21

22 Respondents do not believe that electricity in Ontario costs the same as it does in other provinces Ontario has a national responsibility to be a green energy leader 68.2% 17.8% 10.2% 3.7% Energy investments create good jobs in Ontario 61.8% 16.8% 11.8% 9.6% The cost of electricity is a real financial hardship for me 60.3% 24.5% 12.2% 3.0% Electricity in Ontario costs about the same as it does in other provinces 16.2% 59.8% 4.4% 19.7% Net Agree Net Disagree Neutral Don't know The following are some statements people might make about electricity in Ontario. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following? 22

23 The majority of respondents thought methods presented would be effective at controlling costs with the exception of importing electricity where respondents were split Giving a tax break to people who renovate their homes to make them more energy efficient 71.5% 21.1% 7.4% Encouraging the merger of small electricity utilities to cut operating costs 61.1% 21.3% 15.6% Introducing a cap and trade program and using the revenue to keep household electricity prices steady 59.5% 22.7% 17.8% Expanding the use of smart meters and time-of-use pricing to reward those who use electricity at off-peak times 59.4% 33.2% 7.5% Importing electricity from neighbouring provinces or states 44.2% 40.6% 15.1% Effective Ineffective Don't know There are many options in attempting to control the rising cost of electricity. How effective would you find each of the following? 23

24 Although all forms of electricity generation were generally accepted, acceptance was highest for solar, wind and hydroelectric Solar 66.8% 20.5% 4.9% 4.7% Wind 56.6% 26.3% 7.7% 4.8% 4.6% Hydro-electric 51.5% 33.3% 5.6% 7.1% Biomass 34.0% 39.2% 10.0% 6.2% 10.7% Natural Gas 33.0% 41.4% 13.6% 4.4% 7.6% Nuclear 22.0% 31.5% 18.1% 18.6% 9.8% Very acceptable Somewhat acceptable Somewhat unacceptable Very unacceptable Don't know There are many ways of generating electricity. How acceptable do you think it is that electricity is generated in Ontario using each of the following methods? 24

25 Other than a Nuclear Plant (& Oil pipeline), a majority would accept new energy infrastructure to be built near where they live Solar Farms 52.6% 27.5% 8.4% 5.5% 6.1% Wind Farms 42.9% 30.6% 10.5% 9.6% 6.4% at convert Plant that organic converts waste organic to electricity waste to electricity 39.6% 38.0% 9.5% 4.9% 8.1% Hydroelectric Dam 29.9% 37.3% 13.8% 7.3% 11.6% Natural gas electricity plant 21.1% 38.7% 17.3% 12.3% 10.5% Oil pipeline 17.4% 32.6% 21.3% 18.6% 10.1% Transimission Lines 16.9% 36.5% 20.8% 10.0% 15.9% Nuclear Plant 13.6% 20.5% 21.3% 34.5% 10.2% Very acceptable Somewhat acceptable Somewhat unacceptable Very unacceptable Don't know How acceptable would it be to build the following energy infrastructure near where you live, assuming the infrastructure was necessary?

26 04 Climate Change and Cap and Trade

27 A large majority (64%) believe climate change has been occurring and is projected to continue into the future. PCs are the most skeptical There is not enough evidence to convince me that climate change is occurring. 11% Climate change is not occurring. 2% Climate change might be occurring but it is not a serious threat to the planet. 17% Don t know 6% Climate change has been occurring, is projected to continue into the future and is a serious threat to our planet. 64% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal Ontario NDP Ontario Green Party Another Candidate 12.3% 7.3% 10.8% 6.8% 12.2% 5.4% 29.3% 20.1% 23.8% 12.2% 41.6% 61.0% 75.7% 77.5% 78.4% There has been much debate over the last decade relating to climate change. Which of the following statements best describes what you believe: Undecided 13.1% 9.3% 60.5% 27

28 54% of respondents believe climate change is caused by a combination of both natural and human causes Climate change is mostly or entirely from natural causes such as solar variation, water vapour, cloud cover etc. 7.4% Climate change is mostly or entirely from greenhouse gases from our burning of fossil fuels. 29.2% Climate change is from a combination of both natural and human causes. 54.0% The climate is not really changing much or at all. 4.8% Don t know 4.6% Please choose the statement which best describes what you think are the causes of climate change?

29 One-half of respondents believe climate changes has already impacted Ontario No or insignificant impact 12% Don't know 4% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal 3.7% 8.3% 6.8% 2.4% 27.2% 24.4% 17.4% 27.2% 24.7% 57.8% Maybe 12% Yes it has already 49% Ontario NDP 8.8% 7.6% 1.5% 24.9% 57.2% Yes at some time in the future 23% Ontario Green Another Party 4.4% 3.0% 0.0% 2.8% 9.2% 0.0% 20.0% 28.8% 59.2% 72.6% Do you think climate change will have a big impact on Ontario? Undecided 20.4% 12.9% 8.6% 9.3% 48.8% 29

30 74% respondents believe federal government should be leading the fight against climate change Municipal 3% None of the above 13% Provincial 10% No significant differences between regions or political parties Federal 74% Which of the following levels of government do you think should be leading the fight against climate change?

31 PC supporters think the Province of Ontario can make less difference in the fight against climate change compared with the vast majority of other party supporters Not much 12% Not at all 7% Don't know 8% A lot 42% Ontario PC Ontario Liberal Ontario NDP 1.5% 2.5% 8.5% 10.3% 25.5% 29.1% 20.4% 18.2% 29.4% 34.5% 49.3% 52.4% A little 31% Ontario Green Another Party 8.4% 1.7% 7.9% 27.5% 32.0% 36.7% 20.4% 62.3% How much of a difference can the Province of Ontario make in the fight against climate change? Undecided 5.6% 12.4% 35.0% 29.0% 31

32 The familiarity of Cap and Trade program is low with only 40% having little or no knowledge A lot 11% Ontario PC 15.3% 22.9% 31.2% 30.6% Not at all 38% A little 29% Ontario Liberal Ontario NDP 7.4% 11.2% 30.9% 25.6% 36.2% 31.0% 23.4% 34.3% Ontario Green 11.6% 13.5% 37.4% 37.5% Not much 22% Another Party 26.0% 21.0% 22.2% 30.8% How familiar are you with a Cap and Trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? Undecided 5.5% 20.6% 17.9% 56.0% 32

33 Slightly more support than opposition to Cap and Trade program A cap and trade program should be introduced because it will reduce carbon emissions even though consumer prices will rise A cap and trade program should be introduced because it will reduce carbon emissions and consumer prices will not change A cap and trade program should not be introduced because consumer prices will rise even though carbon emissions will be reduced A cap and trade program should not be introduced because it won t reduce carbon emissions. No opinion or don t know 33 The Ontario Government has said it will introduce a Cap and Trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon. Under the cap and trade program, businesses will have their own greenhouse gas quota and will then be able to sell it if they don t need it because of their own efficiency, thereby encouraging companies to reduce their emissions. Which view is closer to your own?

34 34.1% of respondents think government should use the money to reduce electricity/gas bills Climate change adaptation 18.8% Energy efficiency programs 26.0% Clean technology programs Improving public transit 17.8% 26.0% PCs more focused on bill reduction and tax reductions. OLP & ONDP more evenly spread out Reduce electricity/gas bills 34.1% Reduce tax or give tax refunds 29.3% Other government programs 16.6% Other 1.9% A Cap and Trade program in Ontario could bring in over $1 billion per year. What do you think government should do with the money collected by the cap and trade system?

35 44% of respondents believe business will pass on all extra costs to consumers Pass on all extra costs to consumers 43.7% Will be offset by increased efficiency 22.1% Companies that cannot adapt will go out of business 25.1% Relocate their operations outside of the province 25.0% Companies will be discouraged to locate in Ontario 22.2% Companies profits will be reduced Companies profits will be reduced 16.5% Other 4.6% Nothing 12.3% What do you think will be the impact of a Cap and Trade program in Ontario on businesses?

36 2/3rds are willing to pay extra tax while 1/3 rd are willing to pay nothing more for a Cap and Trade program 66.0% 57.6% 42.9% 48.7% 30.8% 34.0% 17.0% $600 more $300 or more $150 or more $75 or more $25 or more More than nothing No Would you be willing to pay extra tax for a Cap and Trade program in Ontario? 36

37 Summary Energy prices are an important issue 2/3 rd s disagree with selling 60% of Hydro One The public sector is much more trusted than the private sector to manage the electricity system The public believes that government waste and mismanagement, maintaining electricity infrastructure have a lot of impact on their electricity bills 64% believe climate change has been occurring and is projected to continue into the future The familiarity of Cap and Trade program is low 44% believe business will pass on any extra costs of a Cap and Trade program to consumers, but 2/3rds of the public are willing to pay extra tax for a Cap and Trade program 37

38 Toronto Office: Toronto Street, Suite 555 Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2B5 Phone: (647) Fax: (647) For more information contact: Nick Kouvalis, Principal