LATINFOCUS CONSENSUSFORECAST

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1 LATINFOCUS CONSENSUSFORECAST April 21 PERU 2 CALENDAR 17 NOTES 19 PUBLICATION DATE 21 April 21 FORECASTS COLLECTED 14 April - 2 April 21 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 2 April 21 NEXT EDITION 19 May 21 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist RICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist CARL KELLY Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist DIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Economist CECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 April 21 LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD):,193,321,973 GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): Outlook deteriorates GDP increased at the slowest rate in five years in 214. Economic activity was primarily weighed down by falling exports. Weak global demand and low prices for s commodity exports continue to exert pressure on the external sector. In February, exports contracted at the fastest rate in nearly six years and the trade balance hit a record deficit. Meanwhile, business confidence fell into pessimistic territory in March, which suggests that investment growth will continue to be weak in the near term. The government is attempting to boost growth with countercyclical fiscal spending and reforms to promote investment, although it remains to be seen if this will fuel momentum. President Ollanta Humala s popularity has declined in tandem with the economy, while political wrangling and corruption scandals are limiting the government s ability to turn things around. Although the current situation seems bleak relative to the commodity-fueled bonanza of just a few years ago, is in better shape than many of its regional peers. The economy is expected to accelerate in 21 compared to 214, although this depends largely on how much global demand recovers. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 3.% this year, which is down. percentage points from last month s projection. In 21, panelists see the economy growing 4.%. Inflation increased from 2.8% in February to 3.% in March. The Central Bank kept the reference rate at 3.2% at its 9 April meeting. Panelists project year-end inflation of 2.7% for 21 and of 2.% for 21. Carl Kelly Economist Economic Activity variation in % 9. Year-on-year Annual average REAL SECTOR Economic activity slows in February, overall trend continues downward slide In February, economic activity expanded.9% over the same month of last year, which was down from the 1.7% increase tallied in January. According to the statistical institute, the modest expansion was mainly driven by growth in the commerce, telecommunications and financial services sectors. In contrast, the construction and manufacturing industries registered contractions.. % 3. Following on the deceleration in economic activity, the growth trend moderated further. Annual average growth in economic activity decreased from 2.2% in January to 1.8% in February, which marked the lowest point in almost five years.. Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-1 Note: Year-on-year changes of economic activity and annual average growth rate in %. Source: National Statistical Institute (INEI) and FocusEconomics calculations. The Central Bank sees the economy expanding 4.8% in 21 and.% in 21. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 3.% in 21, which is down. percentage points from last month s projection. For 21, the panel expects the economy to grow 4.%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 2

3 April 21 Business Confidence Index 7 OUTLOOK Business confidence falls into pessimistic territory in March Business confidence came in at 49.4 points in March, according to the Central Bank s business confidence indicator. The result was a deterioration compared to the.2 points registered in February and marked the lowest reading since August of last year. Business confidence is now below the -point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic territory. 4 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-1 Note: Business Confidence Index (Indice de Confianza Empresarial).Values above indicate an optimistic assesment in business climate while values below indicate a pessimistic assesment. Source: Central Bank (BCRP). Businesses had lower expectations not only for the economy as a whole in the next three months but also regarding their sectors. There was only a negligible improvement in the short-term outlook for their businesses in particular. Expectations for product demand were also down in March, whereas plans for new hiring in the coming three months were unchanged. Businesses expectations for the economy in the coming 12 months deteriorated significantly. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to grow 2.% in 21, which is down.9 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, panel participants see investment growing 4.1%. Consumer Confidence Index OUTLOOK Consumer confidence unchanged in March In March, the consumer confidence indicator published by APOYO Consultoria remained at February s 3 points. The index is still just above the -point threshold that separates optimistic from pessimistic territory. The survey report emphasized that March s result equalled the average for the index in Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-1 Note: Consumer Confidence Index (INDICCA). Values above indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while values below indicate a pessimistic assesment. Source: APOYO Consultoria. Household s views regarding their current and expected economic situations were unchanged. Perceptions regarding conditions for finding employment and price stability did not register important changes either. Optimism regarding the overall economy increased only slight among households in the higher-income brackets, likely driven by a recent reduction in income taxes and an improvement in the skilled labor market. Meanwhile, optimism levels among the low-income group were unchanged. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect total consumption to expand 4.% in 21, which is down.4 percentage points from last month s estimate. For 21, panelists expect total consumption to grow 4.3%. MONETARY SECTOR Inflation increases in March Inflation Consumer Price Index % Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale) % Consumer prices for Metropolitan Lima in March increased.7% over the previous month, which followed the.3% rise registered in February. The result overshot market expectations of a.% increase. The result was broad-based, as all eight components of the index gained ground in March. The largest increase was recorded in the education category, followed by transport and communication Annual headline inflation picked up from 2.8% in February to 3.% in March. Consequently, inflation held within the upper limit of the Central Bank s target of 2.%, plus/minus 1. percentage point Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-1 Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of consumer price index in %. Source: National Statistical Institute (INEI). In its January quarterly inflation report, the Central Bank indicated that it expects inflation between 1.% and 2.% in both 21 and 21. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 21 at 2.7%, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s projection. For 21, the panel expects inflation of 2.%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 3

4 April 21 Monetary Policy Rate in %. 4. % Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Note: Central Bank Reference Rate in %. Source: Central Bank (BCRP). MONETARY SECTOR Central Bank keeps reference interest rate at 3.2% in April, as expected The Central Bank decided to maintain the reference rate at 3.2% at its 9 April monetary policy meeting, as the majority of market analysts had expected. The Bank cut the rate from 3.% in January in an attempt to counter an ongoing loss of momentum in the economy as the mining export sector struggles with low global demand and prices. Despite sluggish growth, concerns over inflation and a weak currency likely deterred the Bank from cutting its reference rate this month. As in previous meetings, the Central Bank stated that the vian economy is still performing below potential. Newly-released data and forward-looking indicators show continued weakness in the economy. In terms of price developments, annual inflation increased from 2.8% in February to 3.% in March, thus pushing to the upper limit of the bank s target range of 1.% 3.%. Monetary authorities see inflation converging toward 2.% in 21. The Bank did reduce the average reserve requirement ratio for local currency deposits from 8.% to 7.%. The Bank has been slowly lowering the requirement during the past months. The reductions have been implemented to support the expansion of credit in local currency with the aim of reducing the degree of dollarization in domestic financial markets and to boost economic activity amid declining mineral exports. Despite the decision to hold the reference rate, the Bank signaled that it is prepared to take measures if inflation veers from the expected course. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 14 May. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect an average monetary policy rate of 3.14% at the end of this year. For 21, the panel projects an average rate of 3.74% at the end of the year. Exchange Rate PEN per USD MONETARY SECTOR vian sol continues to slide despite ongoing Central Bank operations The vian sol (PEN) continues to lose value against the dollar. On 1 April, the sol traded at 3.12 PEN per USD, which was a sharp 12.3% weaker than on the same day last year. The sol has slipped 4.4% against the dollar so far this year and now stands at its weakest level relative to the greenback in almost six years. The depreciation of the sol in the past several months coincides with ongoing weakness in the vian economy. Moreover, the slide also reflects falling commodity prices and markets expectation of a full normalization of monetary policy in the United States later this year. These external factors are decreasing demand for emerging market assets and currencies, such as the vian sol. 2. Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-1 Note: Daily spot exchange rate of vian sol (PEN) against U.S. dollar (USD). Source: Thomson Reuters. The vian Central Bank has responded to the depreciation through repeated interventions in the foreign exchange market. The Bank continues to sell U.S. dollars in the local market several times per week in an attempt to prop up the sliding sol. In its latest moves, the Bank sold USD 11 million and USD 177 million on 1 and 13 April respectively. Although these sums are smaller than previous interventions, the Bank has sold more than USD 2.8 billion so far this year. The Bank has been active through other channels, including credit swaps and repurchase agreements. The Bank has also reduced local currency bank reserve requirements to counteract the high local demand for dollars and increased liquidity in domestic currency. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 4

5 April 21 LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the sol to end 21 at 3.18 PEN per USD. For 21, the panel sees the sol trading at 3.2 PEN per USD. EXTERNAL SECTOR Exports fall at staggering rate and trade balance registers another deficit in February Merchandise Trade 1 Trade Balance (USD bn, left scale) Exports (yoy, right scale) Imports (yoy, right scale) 3 1 % In February, the trade balance registered a USD 24 million deficit, which contrasted the USD 31 million surplus observed in the same month of last year. February s deficit was smaller than the USD 337 million shortfall registered in January. Exports suffered another significant drop in February, contracting 22.9% over the same month of last year (January: -11.3% year-on-year). This marked the biggest contraction in nearly six years. Exports have posted an annual expansion in only two months during the past two years. Meanwhile, imports fell.3% in February, which was up from the 13.% contraction in January Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-1 Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %. Source: Central Bank (BCRP). In the 12 months up to February, the trade balance posted a deficit of USD 2. billion. The trade balance peaked at a record-high surplus of USD 9.8 billion in February 212. It has narrowed almost uninterruptedly since then and shifted to deficit in December 213. This trend has been driven by falling global demand and decreasing prices for traditional vian exports, such as copper, silver and natural gas. The increase in import volumes has also affected the trade balance negatively. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see exports contracting 2.8% in 21. For 21, the panel sees overseas sales expanding 7.7%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

6 Economic Indicators April 21 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD),29,7,318,7,48,184,311,93,9 7,32 GDP (USD bn) GDP (PEN bn) Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Domestic Demand (annual var. in %) Total Consumption (annual var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) Manufacturing (annual var. in %) Commerce (annual var. in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, eop) Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %, eop) Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) Stock Market (variation of IGBVL in %) Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q4 1 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, qoq variation in %) Total Consumption (annual var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) Manufacturing (annual var. in %) Commerce (annual var. in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) Monetary Policy Rate (%, eop) Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, aop) Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-1 Feb-1 Mar-1 Economic Activity (IMAE, annual var. in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (% of active population) Consumer Confid. Index (-point threshold) NA 3 3 Business Confid. Index (-point threshold) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (PEN per USD, eop) Exports (annual variation in %) LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

7 Real Sector Gross Domestic Product April 21 1 Real GDP var. in % 2 Real GDP Q1 12-Q4 1 var. in %. Real GDP growth in % 3 GDP 21 evolution of forecasts World % 4% 3% 2% 1% Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 GDP 21 Panelist Distribution 9 3 World -3 Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 1 Q1 1 4 GDP 21 evolution of forecasts 8 4 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría 4.. Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú 3. - Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental 4.8. BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual 3.. Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital 3. - Credit Suisse 4.1. Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics 3.. Rimac Seguros 3.4. Santander 4.4. Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum 4.8. Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago 4..1 Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Jan. 21) 4.8. IMF (Apr. 21) 3.8. World Bank (Jan. 21) 4.8. % < >. Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. GDP, panelist distribution of 21 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 7

8 Real Sector Additional forecasts April 21 Consumption and Investment Consumption Investment variation in % variation in % Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Consumption variation in % Consumption evolution of fcst Investment variation in % Investment evol. of forecasts 9 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. Total consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Total consumption, change in 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. 9 Gross fixed investment, change in 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 8

9 Real Sector Additional Forecasts April 21 1 Industry variation in % Industry evol. of forecasts Unemployment % of active pop. 1 9 Manufacturing, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance Manufacturing Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Fiscal Balance % of GDP Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú) and the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: INEI. 11 Manufacturing, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INEI. 13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: BCRP. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 9

10 Monetary Sector Inflation April Inflation in % Inflation 21 evolution of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 18 Inflation 21 Panelist Distribution % 4% 2% 1 Inflation Q1 12-Q4 1 in % 17 Inflation 21 evolution of fcst Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 1 Q1 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 Inflation annual variation of consumer price index in % Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú 2. - Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital 2. - Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Jan. 21) IMF (Apr. 21) % < > 4.4 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INEI, Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 14 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1 Inflation, evolution of 21 inflation forecasts during the last 18 months. 17 Inflation, evolution of 21 inflation forecasts during the last 18 months. 18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 21 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

11 Monetary Sector Interest Rate April Interest Rate in % Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst 4 3 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 23 Interest Rate 21 Panelist Distribution % 4% 3% Interest Rate Q1 12-Q4 1 in % 1 22 Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 1 Q1 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 Interest Rate Policy Rate Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría - - Banco Bradesco - - Banco de Crédito del Perú 3. - Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital 3. - Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU - - Frontier Strategy Group - - Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE - - Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics - - Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago % 1% % < > 4. Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 19 Interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop). 2 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Reference Rate in % (eop). 21 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 22 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 21 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 11

12 Monetary Sector Exchange Rate April Exchange Rate PEN per USD PEN per USD 21 evol. of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum PEN per USD 21 Panelist Distribution 8% % 2 Exchange Rate PEN per USD Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 1 Q PEN per USD 21 evol. of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum 2. Exchange Rate PEN per USD Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco - - Banco de Crédito del Perú Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group - - Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago % 2% % < > 3. Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 24 Exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop). 2 Quarterly exchange rate, PEN per USD (eop). 2 Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. 37 Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. 28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 21 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 12

13 External Sector Current Account and Trade Balance April 21 Current Account and Trade Balance Current Account Trade Balance % of GDP USD bn Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Current Account % of GDP Current Account evol. of fcst Trade Balance USD bn 4 2 Trade Balance Imports -2 Exports Trade Balance evol. of forecasts 2 1 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 29 Current account balance as % of GDP. 3 Current account balance, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 13

14 External Sector Exports and Imports April 21 Exports and Imports Exports Imports USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Exports variation in % Exports evolution of fcst Imports variation in % Imports evol. of forecasts Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 33 Exports, annual variation in %. 34 Exports, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 3 Imports, annual variation in %. 3 Imports, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 4 LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 14

15 External Sector Additional forecasts April 21 International Reserves and External Debt Int. Reserves External Debt USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts ADEX APOYO Consultoría Banco Bradesco Banco de Crédito del Perú Barclays Capital BBVA Banco Continental BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC IEDEP - CCL IPE Itaú BBA JPMorgan Macroconsult Oxford Economics Rimac Seguros Santander Scotiabank Thorne & Associates UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Int. Reserves months of imports Int. Reserves evolution of fcst External Debt % of GDP External Debt evol. of forecasts 7 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank (BCRP, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 4 External debt as % of GDP. 41 External debt, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

16 Fact Sheet April 21 General Data Official name: Republic of Capital: Lima (8.7m) Other cities: Arequipa (.8m) Trujillo (.7m) Area (km2): 1,28,21 Population (million, 214 est.): Population density (per km2, 214): 24. Population growth rate (%, 214 est.): 1. Life expectancy (years, 214 est.): 73.2 Illiteracy rate (%, 27): 7.1 Language: Spanish, Quechua and Aymara Measures: Metric system Time: GMT- in the Region Population %-share in Other 2.% Argentina 7.% Colombia 7.9%.2% Mexico 19.8% Brazil 33.% GDP %-share in Argentina 8.9% Other 21.2% Venezuela 9.4% 3.4% Mexico 21.2% Brazil 3.% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 11.3 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 98 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 39.2 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants):.2 Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 111 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 193 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 39.1 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 3.7 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 172 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 3. Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Manufacturing Other Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 191 Railways (km): 1,97 Roadways (km): 14,72 Waterways (km): 8,88 Chief Ports: Callao, Paita, Matarani Trade Structure Primary markets share in % Political Data President: Ollanta Moises Humala Tasso Last elections: 1 April 211 Next elections: April 21 Central Bank President: Julio Velarde Flores Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: A3 Stable S&P: BBB+ Stable Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable China 17.1% LatAm 18.7% Other Asia ex-japan.8% Other 2.9% Exports EU % Other 1.2% U.S.A. 14.% Switzerland 11.1% Japan.7% Canada 7.% Ecuador.1% Brazil.2% Other LatAm 2.8% Primary products share in % Other 1.8% Imports China 13.8% Other 2.8% U.S.A. 24.2% Other Asia ex-japan 8.% EU-27 1.% Strengths Pragmatic approach to economic policy Succesfully contained inflation Strong international reserves position.. Weaknesses Large informal economy Pronounced socioeconomic inequalities High dependence on commodity prices Mineral Fuels 13.7% Food 2.4% Exports Manufact. Products 14.1% Ores & Metals.% Mineral Fuels 14.8% Food 1.2% Imports Manufact. Products 72.2% LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

17 Economic Release Calendar Calendar April 21 Date Country Event 21 April Argentina March Merchandise Trade 22 April Brazil March Balance of Payments 23 April Argentina April Consumer Confidence 23 April Mexico February Economic Activity (IGAE) 24 April Argentina February Economic Activity 24 April Argentina March Industrial Production 24 April Colombia Central Bank Meeting 27 April Brazil April Consumer Confidence (**) 27 April Mexico March Merchandise Trade 29 April Brazil Central Bank Meeting 3 April Brazil April Business Confidence (**) 3 April Mexico Central Bank Meeting 1 May Brazil April HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 May Chile April Copper Prices (**) 1 May April Consumer Prices 4 May Mexico April IMEF Manufacturing PMI 4 May Mexico April HSBC Manufacturing PMI 4 May Mexico March Remittances May Chile March Economic Activity (IMACEC) May Colombia March Exports May Colombia April Consumer Prices (**) May Paraguay April Consumer Prices May Uruguay April Consumer Prices May Brazil March Industrial Production May Chile April Business Confidence (**) 7 May Ecuador April Consumer Prices 7 May Mexico April Consumer Prices 7 May Venezuela April Car Sales (**) 8 May Brazil April Consumer Prices 8 May Chile April Consumer Prices 8 May Mexico April Consumer Confidence 8 May Paraguay March Economic Activity 9 May March Merchandise Trade (**) 1 May Chile April Consumer Confidence (**) 1 May Venezuela April Consumer Prices (**) 11 May April Business Confidence (**) 12 May Ecuador March Economic Activity (**) 12 May Mexico March Industrial Production 12 May Uruguay March Industrial Production 12 May Venezuela May OPEC Oil Market Report 14 May Argentina April Consumer Prices 14 May Brazil March Retail Sales 14 May Chile Central Bank Meeting 14 May Colombia March Industrial Production 14 May Central Bank Meeting (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 8

18 April 21 Economic Release Calendar Date Country Event 1 May Brazil March Economic Activity (**) 1 May Colombia April Consumer Confidence 1 May March Economic Activity 18 May Chile Q1 21 National Accounts (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 9

19 Notes and Statements Notes April 21 PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Paraguay,, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela. Andean Community (4 countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and. Central America and Caribbean (12 countries): Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago. Mercosur ( countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 21 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 7 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: fax: info@focus-economics.com web: Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

20 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1, unique indicators in 9 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay,, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 7, 81, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com