LATINFOCUS CONSENSUSFORECAST

Transcription

1 LATINFOCUS CONSENSUSFORECAST CHILE 2 CALENDAR 17 NOTES 19 PUBLICATION DATE 21 FORECASTS COLLECTED 1 April - 2 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 2 NEXT EDITION 19 May 215 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist RICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist CARL KELLY Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist DIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Economist CECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): 15,22 1,91 1,71 GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): Outlook improves s economy picked up speed in the last three months of 21 and grew 1.8% annually, thus improving over Q3 s 1.% expansion. Despite the acceleration in Q, GDP growth hit a five-year low last year on the back of cooling consumption and waning investment, especially in the mining sector. Data from the first months of the year show that the economy is steadily gaining momentum. Economic activity posted healthy growth in February and copper prices recorded the first month-on-month increase in March following seven consecutive decreases. Nevertheless, in the short term, economic activity data are expected to be disrupted by the impact of the heavy floods that engulfed the northern party of the country last month. The disaster caused power outages and blocked roads, thus forcing some mines to halt operations. Growth expectations for remain positive on the back of robust economic activity data. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 2.9% in 215, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s estimate. In 21, panelists see economic growth picking up to 3.%. Inflation ticked down from.% in February to.2% in March, marking a one-year low. On 1 April, the Central Bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 3.%. Panelists foresee year-end inflation of 3.2% in 215, which is up.2 percentage points from last month s estimate. For 21, the panel expects year-end inflation to be 3.%. Dirina Mançellari Economist Gross Domestic Product variation in % %. 2.. Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 21 Q1 215 Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. Source: Central Bank (BCC) and LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. REAL SECTOR Economy accelerates in Q 21, posts weakest growth in five years in 21 In the fourth quarter, the economy grew 1.8% over the same period of the previous year, which was an improvement over the revised 1.% increase observed in the third quarter (previously reported: +.8% year-on-year). In addition, the figure slightly undershot the 1.9% increase the market had expected. The quarterly reading reflected an improvement in domestic demand while the external sector performed worse compared to the previous quarter. In the full year 21, the economy grew 1.9%, which was well below 213 s.2% increase and marked the slowest expansion in five years. Growth in government spending accelerated from 2.3% in Q3 to 5.5% in Q. In addition, fixed investment rebounded from a 12.1% drop in Q3 to a.5% increase in Q. However, private consumption rose 1.% in Q, which was below the 1.9% expansion recorded in Q3, and marked the slowest increase since Q3 29. On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services rebounded from a 2.% contraction in the third quarter to a 1.7% expansion in the fourth quarter. In addition, imports contracted 3.9% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was an improvement over the 9.8% decrease seen in the previous quarter. As a result, the external sector s net contribution to overall LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 2

3 Economic Activity variation in %. Year-on-year Annual average. % 2. economic growth fell from 3. percentage points in the third quarter to 2.2 percentage points in the fourth quarter. On a quarterly basis, the economy accelerated form a.% increase in the third quarter to a.9% expansion in the fourth quarter. The Central Bank expects GDP to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% this year. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.9% in 215, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, the panel expects the economy to pick up the pace and expand 3.%.. Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-15 Note: Year-on-year and annual average growth rate in %. Source: Central Bank (BCC) and FocusEconomics calculations. REAL SECTOR Economic activity slows in February In February, economic activity rose 2.% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMACEC). The figure marked a deceleration from the 3.% increase tallied in January and met market expectations. According to the Central Bank, the result mainly reflected an increase in retail trade and services, which was partly offset by a drop in mining activity. Consumer Confidence Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-15 Note: Consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de percepcion de la economia). Values above 5 indicate an optimistic assesment in consumer sentiment while values below 5 indicate a pessimistic assesment. Source: Adimark GfK. On a monthly basis, economic activity fell a seasonally-adjusted.% in February, which contrasted the.8% increase posted in the previous month. Annual average growth in economic activity inched down from 2.% in January to 1.9% in February. OUTLOOK Consumers sentiment deteriorates in March In March, the Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Indice de Percepcion de la Economia) fell from February s.7 points to 39.7, thus dropping to the lowest level since May 29. As a result of the decrease, the index is further below the 5-point threshold separating optimism from pessimism. March s deterioration came on the back of consumers less optimistic views regarding the country s economic situation in the medium and long term. Consumers were less willing to make major purchases this month compared to the previous month. In addition, their sentiment regarding their personal economic situation as well as the country s current economic situation deteriorated compared to the previous month. Business Confidence Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-15 Note: Business Confidence Index (IEE, Indice de Expectativas Empresariales). Values above 5 indicate optimistic perception, below 5 indicate negative perception. Source: Camara de Comercio de Santiago (CCS). LatinFocus Consensus Forecast participants expect total consumption to grow 2.7% in 215, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, the panel sees total consumption growing 3.%. OUTLOOK Business confidence improves in Q1 In Q1, the business confidence index (IEE, Indice de Expectativas Empresariales) produced by the Santiago Chamber of Commerce (Camara de Comercio de Santiago) rose from Q s 51.8 points to 55. points. As a result of the increase, the index now stands at its highest level in a year and is further above the 5-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism. The increase in Q1 came on the back of an improvement in firms outlook on the commerce and industry sectors. On the other hand, firms in the services sector were slightly less optimistic compared to the previous quarter. According to the Chamber of Commerce, businesses expectations regarding future investment were at the highest level since Q2 21. In addition, expectations regarding future sales and employment improved LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 3

4 Inflation Consumer Price Index markedly over the fourth quarter of last year and reached their highest level in a year Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale)..5 LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to expand 1.1% in 215, which is up.5 percentage points from last month s estimate. In 21, the panel expects investment to increase 3.7%..5 % Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-1 Sep-1 Mar-15 Note: Year-on-year and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Source: National Statistical Institute (INE). Monetary Policy Rate in %. 3. % 1.5 MONETARY SECTOR Inflation eases further in March In March, consumer prices rose.% over the previous month. The print followed the.% increase observed in February and marked a five-month high. According to the Statistical Institute, the monthly reading mainly reflected that higher prices for alcoholic drinks and tobacco offset lower prices for transport and communication. Annual headline inflation fell from.% in February to.2% in March, which was the lowest figure since March 21. As a result, inflation remains above the upper bound of the Central Bank s target range of 3.% plus/minus 1. percentage point. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile categories such as oil, fresh fruit and vegetables, rose.5% in March over the previous month, which was below February s.% increase. Annual core inflation fell from February s 5.7% to 5.5% in March, which marked the lowest value in three months.. % 2.. Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-15 Note: Monetary Policy Rate (TMP, Tasa de Politica Monetaria) in %. Source: Central Bank (BCC). The Central Bank sees year-end inflation at 3.% in 215 and at 3.2% in 21. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to close 215 at 3.2%, which is up.2 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, the panel sees inflation at 3.%. MONETARY SECTOR Central Bank leaves policy rate unchanged at 3.% The Central Bank of decided to keep the policy rate at 3.% at its meeting on 1 April. The decision was in line with market expectations. This is the sixth consecutive meeting in which the Bank has kept the policy rate unchanged. On the international front, the Bank commented that the economic recovery in developed countries is underway, especially in the United States. On the other hand, economic prospects for most countries in have deteriorated since the previous meeting. The Bank added that the prices have increased for copper as well as for oil and its derivatives. Exchange Rate CLP per USD Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-15 Note: Daily spot exchange rate of an peso (CLP) against U.S dollar (USD). Source: Thomson Reuters. On the domestic front, output and demand indicators show that the economy is growing in line with the Bank s projections. The unemployment rate has dropped slightly, while nominal wages remain dynamic. In regard to price developments, the Bank said that, inflation came in at a lower-than-expected level in March, and acknowledged that, medium-term inflation expectations remain at 3%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see the policy rate at 3.% at the end of 215. Panelists expect the policy rate to end 21 at 3.79%. MONETARY SECTOR an peso gains strength in April In April, the an peso gained some strength against the U.S dollar after reaching a multi-year low in March. On 17 March, the currency traded at 1.3 CLP per USD, which was 3.3% weaker than that of the same day in the previous month and 12.3% weaker on an annual basis. The depreciation LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

5 of the an peso mainly reflects a slowdown of the activity in the mining sector. In the recent weeks, however, the currency has appreciated against the U.S dollar. On 7 April, the peso traded at 1. CLP per USD, which marked the strongest reading since 1 January. The figure was 2.5% stronger than that of the same day in the previous month and 1.% weaker on an annual basis. The recent appreciation of the currency mainly reflects more positive prospects for the an economy after Q GDP data showed that growth in economic activity accelerated markedly compared to the previous quarter. Increased GDP growth combined with falling inflation and recovering copper prices should bode well for the an peso going forward. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect the peso ending this year at 27 CLP per USD. Next year, the panel sees the currency trading at 29 CLP per USD. Copper Price USD per Lb. 5.. EXTERNAL SECTOR Copper prices record eighth consecutive annual drop In March, copper prices rose 3.7% over the previous month to an average of USD 2.9 per pound (equivalent to USD 5,9 per tonne), which represented the first increase in eight months. March s increase contrasted the 2.1% drop seen in the previous month Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-15 Note: Cash seller and settlement price. Source: London Metal Exchange (LME). In annual terms, average copper prices fell 1.7% in March, which followed the 19.9% drop recorded in February. March s result marked the eighth consecutive decline in annual prices. The Central Bank expects copper prices to average USD 2.8 per pound in both 215 and 21. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect copper prices to average USD 2.83 per pound in both 215 and 21. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 5

6 Economic Indicators Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) 12,95 1,8 15,227 15,777 1,2 1,59 1,791 15,719 1,9 17,89 GDP (USD bn) GDP (CLP bn) 11, , ,28 137,29 17, ,12 17,5 178,97 191,95 2,19 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Total Consumption (annual var. in %) Private Consumption (annual var. in %) Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %) Supermarket Sales (annual var. in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual var. of M2 in %) Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, aop) Inflation (Core, annual var. in %, eop) Inflation (WPI, annual var. in %, eop) Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) Year Bond Yield (%, eop) Stock Market (variation of IGPA in %) Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual var. in %) Imports (annual var. in %) Copper Price (USD per lb, aop) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q 15 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, qoq s.a. var. in %) Total Consumption (annual var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %) Supermarket Sales (annual var. in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) CCS (IEE) Business Confid. Index Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %, eop) Monetary Policy Rate (in %, eop) Year Bond Yield (%, eop) Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Monthly Data Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Economic Activity (IMACEC, annual var. in %) Industrial Manufacturing (annual var. in %) Unemployment (% of active population) Consumer Confid. Index (5-point threshold) Business Confid. Index (5-point threshold) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual var. in %) Exchange Rate (CLP per USD, eop) LatinFocus Consensus Forecast

7 Real Sector Gross Domestic Product 1 Real GDP var. in % 2 Real GDP Q1 12-Q 1 var. in % Real GDP growth in % 1 5 World GDP 215 evolution of forecasts 5 3 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 5 GDP 215 Panelist Distribution % % 2% 2 World Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q1 1 GDP 21 evolution of forecasts 5 3 Maximum Consensus Minimum 2 Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI BICE Inversiones BMI Research 3..8 BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts 2.5. CorpResearch Credicorp Capital 3. - Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura 3.2. Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Mar. 215) IMF (Apr. 215) OECD (Nov. 21) % < > 3.9 Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, real annual variation in %. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 215 forecasts during the last 18 months. GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 5 GDP, panelist distribution of 215 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 7

8 Real Sector Additional forecasts Consumption and Investment Consumption Investment variation in % variation in % Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI BICE Inversiones BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Consumption variation in % 7 Consumption evolution of fcst Investment variation in % Investment evol. of forecasts 8 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. Total consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Total consumption, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 8 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. 9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 8

9 Real Sector Additional Forecasts 1 Industry variation in % Industry evol. of forecasts Unemployment % of active pop Industry, Unemployment and Fiscal Balance Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance variation in % % of active pop. % of GDP Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI BICE Inversiones BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Fiscal Balance % of GDP Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas) and the Ministry of Finance (Ministerio de Hacienda). See below for details. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: INE. 11 Industrial production, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 12 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: INE. 13 Balance of non-financial public sector as % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 9

10 Monetary Sector Inflation 1 Inflation in % Inflation 215 evolution of fcst Inflation 215 Panelist Distribution 8% % % Maximum Consensus Minimum 15 Inflation Q1 12-Q 1 in % Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q Inflation 21 evolution of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum 2.5 Inflation annual variation of consumer price index in % Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones 3. - Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI 3. - BICE Inversiones BMI Research - - BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group - - GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Additional Forecasts Central Bank (Mar. 215) IMF (Apr. 215) % % < > 5. Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 1 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 15 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 1 Inflation, evolution of 215 forecasts during the last 18 months. 17 Inflation, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 18 Inflation, panelist distribution of 215 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

11 Monetary Sector Interest Rate 19 Interest Rate in % 2 Interest Rate Q1 12-Q 1 in % Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q Int. Rate 215 evolution of fcst 22 Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst Maximum Maximum Consensus Consensus Minimum Minimum Interest Rate 215 Panelist Distribution 1% 8% % Interest Rate Policy Rate Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones 3. - Banco Bradesco - - BBVA Research 3. - BCI 3. - BICE Inversiones BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch 3.. BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago 3.. Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts 3.. CorpResearch Credicorp Capital 3. - Credit Suisse 3.. Deutsche Bank 3.. Econsult EIU - - Frontier Strategy Group - - GBM Securities Goldman Sachs 3.. HSBC Inversiones Security 3. - Itaú BBA JPMorgan 3. - Nomura Oxford Economics - - Santander Scotiabank 3.. UBS 3.. Summary Minimum Maximum Median 3.. Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago % 2% % < > 5. Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de ). Forecasts are based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 19 Interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop). 2 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank monetary policy rate in % (eop). 21 Interest rate, evolution of 215 forecasts during the last 18 months. 22 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 23 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 215 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 11

12 Monetary Sector Exchange Rate 2 Exchange Rate CLP per USD 25 Exchange Rate CLP per USD Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q1 1 2 CLP per USD 215 evol. of fcst 27 CLP per USD 21 evol. of fcst 7 7 Maximum Consensus 5 5 Minimum Maximum 5 Consensus Minimum CLP per USD 215 Panelist Distribution % % Exchange Rate CLP per USD Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones 25 - Banco Bradesco BBVA Research 5 - BCI 2 - BICE Inversiones BMI Research 2 15 BofA Merrill Lynch 5 BTG Pactual 2 28 Cámara Com. Santiago 35 5 Capital Economics 1 1 Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch 2 Credicorp Capital 5 - Credit Suisse 2 Deutsche Bank 25 3 Econsult 8 53 EIU 52 5 Frontier Strategy Group - - GBM Securities Goldman Sachs 3 39 HSBC Inversiones Security - Itaú BBA 5 5 JPMorgan 35 - Nomura Oxford Economics Santander 2 15 Scotiabank UBS 3 2 Summary Minimum Maximum 5 Median 25 2 Consensus History 3 days ago 2 2 days ago days ago % % < > 9 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 2 Exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop). 25 Quarterly exchange rate, CLP per USD (eop). 2 Exchange rate, evolution of 215 forecast during the last 18 months. 27 Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. 28 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 215 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 12

13 External Sector Current Account and Trade Balance Current Account and Trade Balance Current Account Trade Balance % of GDP USD bn Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI BICE Inversiones BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Current Account % of GDP Trade Balance USD bn 12 9 Trade Balance Exports Imports 3 Current Account evol. of fcst Trade Balance evol. of forecasts Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de ). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 29 Current account balance, as % of GDP. 3 Current account balance, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 31 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. 32 Trade balance, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 13

14 External Sector Exports and Imports Exports and Imports Exports Imports USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI BICE Inversiones BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Exports variation in % Exports evolution of fcst Imports variation in % Imports evol. of forecasts Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de ). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 33 Exports, annual variation in %. 3 Exports, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 35 Imports, annual variation in %. 3 Imports, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

15 External Sector Additional forecasts International Reserves and External Debt Int. Reserves External Debt USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts Banchile Inversiones Banco Bradesco BBVA Research BCI BICE Inversiones BMI Research BofA Merrill Lynch BTG Pactual Cámara Com. Santiago Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts CorpResearch Credicorp Capital Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Econsult EIU Frontier Strategy Group GBM Securities Goldman Sachs HSBC Inversiones Security Itaú BBA JPMorgan Nomura Oxford Economics Santander Scotiabank UBS Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Int. Reserves months of imports Int. Reserves evolution of fcst External Debt % of GDP External Debt evol. of forecasts Notes and sources Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from from the Central Bank (BCC, Banco Central de ). Forecasts based on LatinFocus Consensus Forecast. 38 International reserves, months of imports. 39 International reserves, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. External debt as % of GDP. 1 External debt, evolution of 215 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 15

16 FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet General Data Official name: Republic of Capital: Santiago (5.8 m) Other cities: Valparaíso (.9 m) Concepción (.9 m) Area (km2): 75,95 Population (million, 21 est.): Population density (per km2, 21): 23. Population growth rate (%, 21 est.):.8 Life expectancy (years, 21 est.): 78. Illiteracy rate (%, 29): 1. Language: Spanish Measures: Metric system Time: GMT- in the Region Population %-share in Other 28.8% Argentina 7.% Colombia 7.9% Mexico 19.8% 3.1% Brazil 33.% GDP %-share in Argentina 8.% Venezuela 9.2% Other 19.7% Mexico 2.%.2% Brazil 37.7% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (213) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 18.2 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 13 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants):.5 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 12.3 Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 329 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,19 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h):.9 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 3. Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 17.3 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 32 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 81.5 Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Manufacturing Other Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (213) Airports: 81 Railways (km): 7,82 Roadways (km): 77,7 Chief Ports: Valparaíso, San Antonio Trade Structure Primary markets share in % Political Data President: Michelle Bachelet Last elections: 17 November 213 Next elections: 19 November 217 Central Bank President: Rodrigo Vergara Montes Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Aa3 Stable S&P: AA- Stable Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable Other LatAm 11.9% Korea 5.8% Brazil 5.5% China 23.3% Other 8.% Exports U.S.A. 12.3% Other Asia ex-japan.9% Japan 1.7% EU % Other 1.7% Brazil.5% Argentina.% Other LatAm 1.7% Primary products share in % Imports China 18.2% U.S.A. 22.9% Other Asia ex-japan.9% EU % Strengths Weaknesses Market oriented policy firmly High dependence on copper anchored exports Structurally sound and prudent Relatively small domestic fiscal policy market Free trade agreements with Privatization of state-owned major economic areas copper giant CODELCO not Low import tariffs have created on agenda competitive industry. Agric. Raw Mat. 5.% Food 19.2% Other 1.% Manufact. Products 13.9% Exports Ores & Metals.% Mineral Fuels 22.2% Food 7.5% Other 2.% Imports Manufact. Products 7.7% LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 1

17 Economic Release Calendar Calendar Date Country Event 21 April Argentina March Merchandise Trade 22 April Brazil March Balance of Payments 23 April Argentina April Consumer Confidence 23 April Mexico February Economic Activity (IGAE) 2 April Argentina February Economic Activity 2 April Argentina March Industrial Production 2 April Colombia Central Bank Meeting 27 April Brazil April Consumer Confidence (**) 27 April Mexico March Merchandise Trade 29 April Brazil Central Bank Meeting 3 April Brazil April Business Confidence (**) 3 April Mexico Central Bank Meeting 1 May Brazil April HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 May April Copper Prices (**) 1 May Peru April Consumer Prices May Mexico April IMEF Manufacturing PMI May Mexico April HSBC Manufacturing PMI May Mexico March Remittances 5 May March Economic Activity (IMACEC) 5 May Colombia March Exports 5 May Colombia April Consumer Prices (**) 5 May Paraguay April Consumer Prices 5 May Uruguay April Consumer Prices May Brazil March Industrial Production May April Business Confidence (**) 7 May Ecuador April Consumer Prices 7 May Mexico April Consumer Prices 7 May Venezuela April Car Sales (**) 8 May Brazil April Consumer Prices 8 May April Consumer Prices 8 May Mexico April Consumer Confidence 8 May Paraguay March Economic Activity 9 May Peru March Merchandise Trade (**) 1 May April Consumer Confidence (**) 1 May Venezuela April Consumer Prices (**) 11 May Peru April Business Confidence (**) 12 May Ecuador March Economic Activity (**) 12 May Mexico March Industrial Production 12 May Uruguay March Industrial Production 12 May Venezuela May OPEC Oil Market Report 1 May Argentina April Consumer Prices 1 May Brazil March Retail Sales 1 May Central Bank Meeting 1 May Colombia March Industrial Production 1 May Peru Central Bank Meeting (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 17

18 Economic Release Calendar Date Country Event 15 May Brazil March Economic Activity (**) 15 May Colombia April Consumer Confidence 15 May Peru March Economic Activity 18 May Q1 215 National Accounts (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 18

19 Notes and Statements Notes PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil,, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela. Andean Community ( countries): Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Central America and Caribbean (12 countries): Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago. Mercosur (5 countries): Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 215 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 57 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: fax: info@focus-economics.com web: Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The LatinFocus Consensus Forecast ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast 19

20 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1, unique indicators in 95 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil,, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 57, 81, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com