CONSENSUS FORECAST. Philippines April Contributors PHILIPPINES 2 CALENDAR 11 NOTES 13

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1 CONSENSUS FORECAST April 21 PHILIPPINES 2 CALENDAR 11 NOTES 1 PUBLICATION DATE 2 March 21 FORECASTS COLLECTED 18 March - 2 March 21 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 2 March 21 NEXT EDITION 28 April 21 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist RICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist CARL KELLY Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist DIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Economist CECILIA SIMKIEVICH Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 April 21 LONG-TERM TRENDS -year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): 2,8,27,812 GDP growth (%):.9..1 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%):... Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): Outlook improves The recorded a strong expansion in the final quarter of last year, pushing full-year GDP growth to.1%. The result suggests that the economy is solidly back on track following Q s slowdown. The Q acceleration resulted from a rebound in public spending, strong exports and robust private consumption. The government s focus remains on improving the country s underdeveloped transport, power and energy infrastructures, which is also crucial to attracting increased foreign direct investment (FDI). Even though implementation of several approved infrastructure projects is behind schedule, companies interest in the government s public-private-partnership is promising. In addition, several policy changes to boost FDI are currently under discussion. FocusEconomics Forecast panelists now assess the economic prospects more positively on expectations that GDP growth will benefit from low oil prices and be sustained by solid private and public spending. Panelists expect the economy to expand.% in 21, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s estimate. For 21, the panel sees GDP growing.%. Inflation inched up from January s seventeen-month low of 2.% to 2.% in February. Inflationary pressures remained subdued in recent months, owing mainly to weak fuel prices and lower food price inflation. Panelists expect inflation to average 2.9% in 21, which is down.2 percentage points from last month s projection. In 21, they forecast average inflation of.%. Teresa Kersting Economist OFW Remittances USD billion and variation in % Monthly OFW remittances in USD bn (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale) EXTERNAL SECTOR Remittances growth slows to six-year low in January In January, cash remittances from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) increased.% over the same month of the previous year, reaching USD 1.8 billion. The print came in below December s.% expansion and marked the slowest pace of growth since January 29. The overall trend stabilized as remittances totaled USD 2. billion in the 12 months up to January, which was virtually in line with December s print that had marked a record high. The increase represented a.% expansion over the same period of the previous year but fell short of December s.9% rise Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Note: Monthly OFW remittances in USD billion and annual variation in %. Source: Central Bank of the (BSP). %. Remittances, which accounted for approximately 8.% of GDP in 21, are an important source of income for many Filipino families and thus a key driver of private consumption. According to the Central Bank, land-based workers accounted for the largest share of remittances, while a smaller proportion of remittances came from sea-based workers. Remittances mainly came from the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. FocusEconomics Forecast 2

3 April 21 FocusEconomics Forecast panelists expect private consumption to grow.8% in 21, which is down.1 percentage points from last month s projection. For 21, the panel expects private consumption to expand.7%. The government expects growth between 7.% and 8.% in 21 and 21. FocusEconomics Forecast panelists expect economic growth to reach.% in 21, which is up.1 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, panelists expect growth of.%. Inflation Consumer Price Index 1. Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale). %... %. MONETARY SECTOR Inflation inches up in February In February, consumer prices rose.1% over the previous month, coming in below January s.% rise. February s increase reflects that higher prices for housing, electricity, gas and other fuels as well as transport slightly offset lower prices for food items. Annual inflation inched up from January s 2.%, which had marked the lowest level in 17 months, to 2.% in February. Meanwhile, annual average inflation, which is the reference rate used by the Central Bank as a guide for monetary policy, in February stood at.9%, which was a bit down from January s.% and marked a seven-month low. Thus, average inflation in February rested just slightly below the upper bound of the Central Bank s target range Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-1 Aug-1 Feb-1 Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. Source: National Statistics Office (NSO). The monthly core inflation index, which excludes volatile items such as food and oil, in February rose.% over the previous month, coming in below January s.% rise. Finally, annual core inflation rose from January s 2.2% to 2.% in February. The Central Bank s target inflation rate is.% plus/minus 1. percentage points for 21. FocusEconomics Forecast panelists expect annual inflation to average 2.9% in 21, which is down.2 percentage points from last month s forecast. For 21, the panel expects inflation to average.%. EXTERNAL SECTOR Exports contract again in January In January, exports shrunk.% over the same month last year, coming in above December s.2% contraction that had represented the first contraction since April 21. Merchandise Exports in % 2 1 % -1 Year-on-year Annual average -2 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-1 Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation in %. Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations. January s drop resulted from falling exports of manufactures, which fell 1.% in annual terms, coming in above December s.2% decrease that had marked the largest drop in 17 months. Exports of electronic products classified as a sub-category of manufactures grew from December s 9.9% increase to a 1.% annual expansion in January. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority, electronic products account for the largest share of the total exports revenue. Exports of agro-based products rebounded from December s sizable 2.9% contraction to a 12.9% expansion in January. In December (the latest month for which data are available), imports fell 1.% in annual terms, coming in marginally up from November s 1.8% decrease. Meanwhile, the trade balance improved and tallied a USD 8 million deficit in December (December 21: USD 8 million deficit). FocusEconomics Forecast panelists see exports rising 1.8% in 21 and then accelerating to a 8.% expansion in 21. FocusEconomics Forecast panelists expect the trade deficit to reach USD. billion in 21 and USD. billion in 21. FocusEconomics Forecast

4 Economic Indicators April 21 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) 2,17 2,81 2,1 2,79 2,82,,219,,812,12 GDP (USD bn) GDP (PHP bn) 9, 9,78 1,7 11,8 12, 1,97 1,21 1,77 18, 2,11 Economic Growth (Nom. GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Manufacturing (annual variation in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Inflation (Core, annual variation in %, aop) Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %, aop) Reverse Repurchase Rate (%, eop) Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) Year Bond Yield (%, eop) Stock Market (variation of PSEi in %) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Remittances (USD bn) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Q 1 Q 1 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q 1 Q 1 Q1 1 Q2 1 Q 1 Q 1 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, s.a. qoq var. in %) Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Consumer Confidence (-point threshold) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Reverse Repurchase Rate (%, eop) Day Treasury Bill (%, eop) Year Bond Yield (%, eop) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Monthly Data May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug-1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-1 Feb-1 Real Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Remittances (annual var. in %) FocusEconomics Forecast

5 Real Sector Gross Domestic Product April 21 1 Real GDP variation in % 1 1 World GDP 21 evolution of forecasts 8 7 Consumption variation in % Real GDP Q1 12-Q 1 var. in % Real GDP growth in % 9 World Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1 GDP 21 evolution of forecasts 8 7 Investment variation in % 2 1 Individual Forecasts ANZ.1. Banco de Oro..8 BofA Merrill Lynch.1.1 BPI AMTG. - Capital Economics.. Citigroup Global Mkts.7. Credit Agricole.2 7. Credit Suisse.. Daiwa..9 DBS Bank.. Deutsche Bank.. EIU.7. Frontier Strategy Group.. Goldman Sachs.8.1 HSBC..1 ING.7 7. JPMorgan..9 Maybank Investment Bank 7. - Metrobank.. Morgan Stanley.. Nomura.. Oxford Economics.. Philippine Equity Partners.1. Standard Chartered..7 UBS..8 Summary Median.... History days ago..2 days ago days ago.2.2 Additional Forecasts Government (Jan. 21) IMF (Oct. 21).. ADB (Dec. 21) Consumption evolution of fcst Investment evolution of forecasts Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB), the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB. 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. Source: NSCB. GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. GDP, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB. Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB. 7 Private consumption, change in 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 8 Gross fixed investment, change in 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 9 Manufacturing, annual variation in %. Source: NSO. 1 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO. 11 Balance of national government as % of GDP. Source: BSP. 12 Manufacturing, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 Unemployment, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 1 Balance of national government as % of GDP, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. FocusEconomics Forecast

6 Real Sector Additional forecasts April 21 Consumption variation in % Investment variation in % Unemployment % of active pop. Fiscal Balance % of GDP Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BofA Merrill Lynch BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Agricole Credit Suisse Daiwa DBS Bank Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Maybank Investment Bank Metrobank Morgan Stanley Nomura Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered UBS Summary Median History days ago days ago days ago Manufacturing variation in % 1 Unemployment % of active pop. 11 Fiscal Balance % of GDP Manufacturing evolution of fcst Unemployment evolution of fcst Fiscal Balance evolution of fcst FocusEconomics Forecast

7 Monetary Sector Inflation 1 Inflation in % Inflation 21 evolution of fcst Core and Producer Prices var. in % 1 Core PPI 1 1 Inflation Q1 12-Q 1 in % 2 Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q 1 18 Inflation 21 evolution of fcst 2 2 Money variation in % April 21 Inflation annual avg. var. of consumer price index in % Individual Forecasts ANZ.. Banco de Oro.8.8 BofA Merrill Lynch 2.8. BPI AMTG. - Capital Economics.. Citigroup Global Mkts 2..1 Credit Agricole.. Credit Suisse Daiwa..1 DBS Bank.2.8 Deutsche Bank 2.. EIU..7 Frontier Strategy Group..1 Goldman Sachs HSBC 2.. ING JPMorgan 1. - Maybank Investment Bank. - Metrobank Morgan Stanley 2.7. Nomura 2..2 Oxford Economics 2.8. Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered.2.7 UBS 2..2 Summary Median History days ago.1. days ago.. 9 days ago.7.8 Additional Forecasts Central Bank Target.±1. - IMF (Oct. 21).9. ADB (Dec. 21) Notes and sources 21 MSCI Price Index 2 1 JanJul JanJul JanJul JanJul JanJul Jan 22 Stock Market PSEi 8,,, 2, JanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJanJulJan General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Forecast. 1 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: NSO. 1 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: NSO. 17 Inflation, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 18 Inflation, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (aop) Source: NSO. 2 Money, annual variation of M2 in % Source: BSP. 21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD. Jan. 21 until end of previous week. Source: MSCI Barra. 22 Daily index levels, PSEi. Jan. 21 until end of previous week. Source: The Philippine Stock Exchange. FocusEconomics Forecast 7

8 Monetary Sector Interest Rate and Exchange Rate April 21 2 Interest Rate in % Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst 2 27 Exchange Rate PHP per USD 2 Interest Rate Q1 12-Q 1 in %..... Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q 1 2 Int. Rate 21 evolution of fcst 28 Exchange Rate PHP per USD Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Interest Rate Exchange Rate % PHP per USD Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro.... BofA Merrill Lynch..2.. BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts....9 Credit Agricole..7.. Credit Suisse...8. Daiwa DBS Bank Deutsche Bank.... EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC....9 ING.... JPMorgan Maybank Investment Bank Metrobank.... Morgan Stanley Nomura Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners..2.. Standard Chartered UBS Summary Median History days ago days ago days ago PHP per USD 21 evol. of fcst 2 Q1 12 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q1 1 Q 1 PHP per USD 21 evol. of fcst Notes and sources General: Long-term chart period from 2 to 219 unless otherwise stated. All monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of the (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Forecast. 2 Interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source: BSP. 2 Quarterly interest rate, Reverse Repurchase Rate in % (eop). Source: BSP. 2 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 2 Interest rate, evolution of 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. 27 Exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 28 Quarterly exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 29 Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. Exchange rate, evolution of 21 forecast during the last 18 months. 1 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO. 2 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: NSO. International reserves, months of imports. Source: BSP. Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 21 and 21 forecasts during the last 18 months. Exports, annual variation in %. Source: NSO. External debt as % GDP. Source: BSP. FocusEconomics Forecast 8

9 April 21 External Sector Current Account, Trade and International Reserves Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves % of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts ANZ Banco de Oro BofA Merrill Lynch BPI AMTG Capital Economics Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Agricole Credit Suisse Daiwa DBS Bank Deutsche Bank EIU Frontier Strategy Group Goldman Sachs HSBC ING JPMorgan Maybank Investment Bank Metrobank Morgan Stanley Nomura Oxford Economics Philippine Equity Partners Standard Chartered UBS Summary Median History days ago days ago days ago Current Account % of GDP 2 Trade Balance USD billion Int. Reserves months of imports 1 1 Trade Balance Exports Imports Current Account evol. of fcst Exports annual variation in % External Debt % of GDP FocusEconomics Forecast 9

10 FOCUSECONOMICS Fact Sheet April 21 General Data Official name: Republic of the Capital: Manila (11. m) Other cities: Davao (1. m) Cebu City (.8 m) Area (km2):, Population (million, 21 est.): 99. Population density (per km2, 21): 1 Population growth rate (%, 21 est.): 1.8 Life expectancy (years, 21 est.): 72. Illiteracy rate (%, 28 est.):. Language: Filipino and English Measures: Metric system Time: GMT+8 in the Region Population %-share in Asia Vietnam 2.7% Indonesia 7.% India 7.8% Other 7.8%.% China 1.1% Indonesia.% Korea 8.% GDP %-share in Asia India 12.% Other 12.% 1.7% China.% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (21) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants):.2 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 1 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 7. Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 2. Energy (212) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,7 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 9.7 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 1. Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 2 Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 8 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 8. Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Manufacturing Other Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (21) Airports: 27 Railways (km): 99 Roadways (km): 21,11 Waterways (km):,219 Chief Ports: Manila Trade Structure - Primary markets share in % Political Data President: Benigno Aquino III Last elections: 1 May 21 Next elections: 9 May 21 Central Bank Governor: Amando M. Tetangco Jr. Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Baa2 Stable S&P: BBB Stable Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable Hong Kong 9.2% Singapore 9.% China 11.8% Other 1.% Exports Other Asia ex-japan 11.% Japan 19.% EU % U.S.A. 1.2% Other 7.% Primary products share in % Imports LatAm 2.% U.S.A. 2.% EU % Other Asia ex-japan China.2%.2% Strengths Widespread English proficiency Well-educated labor force Solid telecom infrastructure Large domestic market Weaknesses Weak fiscal structure Inadequate infrastructure Low savings and investment pose limits to growth. Ores & Metals.7% Food 1.1% Other 11.2% Exports Manufact. Products 7.% Mineral Fuels 2.9% Food 1.% Other 9.% Imports Manufact. Products 9.7% FocusEconomics Forecast 1

11 Economic Release Calendar Calendar April 21 Date Country Event 2 March China March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 March Vietnam March Consumer Prices (**) 2 March Korea Q 21 National Accounts 2 March Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 2 March Korea March Consumer Confidence 2 March Central Bank Meeting 28 March Vietnam Q1 21 National Accounts (**) 28 March Vietnam March Industrial Production (**) March Korea April Business Confidence 1 March Hong Kong February Retail Sales 1 March Korea February Industrial Production 1 March New Zealand March Business Confidence 1 March Thailand February Manufacturing Production 1 March Thailand February Merchandise Trade 1 April China March Manufacturing PMI 1 April Indonesia March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Indonesia March Consumer Prices 1 April Korea March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Korea March Consumer Prices 1 April Taiwan March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 1 April Vietnam March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Hong Kong March HSBC PMI 2 April India March HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Malaysia March Consumer Prices 2 April Singapore March SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (**) 2 April Thailand March Consumer Prices April Malaysia Febuary Merchandise Trade April India March HSBC Services PMI 7 April Australia February Retail Sales 7 April Australia Central Bank Meeting 7 April India Central Bank Meeting 7 April March Consumer Prices 7 April Singapore Q1 21 National Accounts (**) 8 April February Exports 8 April Taiwan March Merchandise Trade 8 April Taiwan March Consumer Prices 9 April Australia March Unemployment 9 April China March Merchandise Trade (**) 9 April Korea Central Bank Meeting 1 April Australia April Consumer Confidence (**) 1 April China March Consumer Prices 1 April China March Producer Prices 1 April China March New Yuan loans (**) FocusEconomics Forecast 11

12 Economic Release Calendar Calendar April 21 Date Country Event 1 April China March Money Supply (M2) (**) 1 April India February Industrial Production 1 April India March Consumer Prices 1 April Malaysia Febuary Industrial Production 1 April Singapore Central Bank Meeting (**) 1 April India March Wholesale Prices 1 April Indonesia Central Bank Meeting 1 April Indonesia February Retail Sales (**) 1 April China Q1 21 National Accounts 1 April China March Industrial Production 1 April China March Retail Sales 1 April China March Fixed Asset Investment 1 April Indonesia March Merchandise Trade 1 April February OFW Remittances 17 April India March Merchandise Trade (**) 17 April Singapore March Merchandise Trade 18 April China March Property Prices 2 April Korea March Merchandise Trade 2 April New Zealand April Business Confidence (**) 2 April New Zealand Q1 21 Consumer Prices 21 April Hong Kong March Consumer Prices 22 April Australia Q1 21 Consumer Prices 2 April China April HSBC Manufacturing PMI 2 April Korea Q1 21 National Accounts (*) 2 April Singapore March Consumer Prices 2 April Taiwan March Industrial Production 2 April Korea April Consumer Confidence 2 April Taiwan Central Bank Meeting (**) 2 April Vietnam April Consumer Prices (**) (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Forecast 12

13 April 21 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Asia (1 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asia ex-japan (1 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 1 countries): Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma),, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 21 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Forecast Asia is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 7 E-81 Barcelona Spain tel: fax: info@focus-economics.com web: DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Forecast Asia ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Forecast 1

14 FocusEconomics Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1, unique indicators in 9 countries. Every monthly report includes the Forecast for each indicator covered. The Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate ASIA PACIFIC Brunei, China, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad & Tobago EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine EURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain LATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela MAJOR ECONOMIES G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Eurozone, Germany & Italy); BRIC overview (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen; South Africa NORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden FocusEconomics Gran Via 7, 81, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com