Sample Report. Contact us for the latest version: economics.com CONSENSUS FORECAST. Angola May Contributors ANGOLA 2 NOTES 9

Transcription

1 CONSENSUS FORECAST ANGOLA 2 NOTES 9 PUBLICATION DATE 28 April 15 FORECASTS COLLECTED 21 April - 27 April 15 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 27 April 15 NEXT EDITION 26 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior RICARD TORNÉ Senior OLGA COSCODAN CARL KELLY TERESA KERSTING DIRINA MANÇELLARI ANGELA BOUZANIS CECILIA SIMKIEVICH ROBERT HILL ERIC DENIS MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 Outlook deteriorates LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): GDP per capita (USD): 5,492 6,424 7,47 GDP growth (%): Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP): Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): The drastic drop in oil prices has prompted the n government to seek ways to diversify from oil, which accounts for over 9% of the country s exports and about three quarters of government revenues. The government is planning to raise up to USD 1 billion from external funding to invest in infrastructure projects. In order to obtain the necessary funds, the government is launching a Eurobond later this year, which would raise up to USD 1.5 billion. The remaining funds will be covered by a loan from the Word Bank the first of its kind for and the extension of bilateral credit lines with other countries including China and Brazil. Last month, the government slashed its spending for 15 by USD 15 billion and widened its deficit forecast for this year after halving the assumption for oil prices. The slump in oil prices represents a challenge for as oil accounts for half of the country s GDP. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to increase 3.1% in 15, which is down.4 percentage points from last month s estimate. For 16, the panel projects GDP to grow 4.6%. Inflation rose from 7.7% in February to 7.9% in March, thus reaching the highest level in over a year. At its meeting on 27 April, the Central Bank decided to keep its BNA Basic Reference Rate unchanged at to 9.25%. FocusEconomic Consensus Forecast panelists expect average inflation of 9.2% in 15 and 8.1% in 16. Dirina Mançellari Economic Climate Indicator Dec-1 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Note: Value of s.a. quarterly economic climate indicator. The 16-point represents the historical average. Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE). REAL SECTOR Economic sentiment deteriorates in Q4 The economic climate indicator (ICE, Indicador de Clima Económico), which is published by the National Statistical Institute and covers the mining, manufacturing, construction, trade, transport and tourism sectors, fell from 19 in the third quarter of last year to 16 in the fourth quarter, thus reaching the lowest level since Q2 13. As a result of the decrease, the index is now at its 16-points historical average. Q4 s slowdown was broad-based. The construction and trade sectors deteriorated over the previous quarter and reached their lowest level in one and four years, respectively. In addition, mining also slowed over the third quarter and recorded its lowest reading since Q1 11. The government expects the economy to grow 6.6% this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 3.1% in 15, which is down.4 percentage points from last month s estimate. For 16, the panel projects that the economy will expand 4.6%. MONETARY SECTOR Inflation rises in March to over one-year high In March, consumer prices rose.63% over the previous month, which followed the.76% increase observed in February and marked the slowest FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 2

3 Inflation Consumer Price Index 1. Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale).8 % % 8. increase in four months. According to the statistical office, the figure mainly reflected higher prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks. Annual inflation rose from 7.7% in February to 7.9% in March, which was the highest level in over a year. However, annual average inflation was stable at the previous month s 7.3%, thus remaining at a five-month high Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of consumer price index in %. Source: Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 7. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation to average at 9.2% in 15, which is up.1 percentage points over last month s projection. For 16, the panel sees inflation falling to 8.1%. MONETARY SECTOR Bank of keeps its policy rate unchanged At its meeting on 27 April, the Central Bank of decided to keep the BNA Basic Reference Rate unchanged at 9.25%. The decision followed the hike of the Basic policy rate last month, which was taken in order to fight the high level of inflation. Monetary Policy Rate in % % Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Note: BNA Basic Reference Rate in %. Source: Central Bank of (BNA, Banco Nacional de ). The Bank commented that, in March, inflation increased due to higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages and health. Regarding the stock of credit in the economy, the Monetary Policy Committee said that it reached a volume of KZ 3.41 million, representing a 13.% cumulative increase in the last 12 months. The Bank went on and added that the average exchange reference rate depreciated 1.62% from the previous month, standing at Kwanzas per USD. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the BNA Basic Reference Rate to end 15 at 9.5% and 16 at 9.44%. EXTERNAL SECTOR Oil price picks up in April In March, the average price of s Cabinda oil fell 2.4% over the previous month, reaching USD 52.8 per barrel. The reading notably contrasted the 22.6% increase recorded in the previous month. In annual terms, the average oil price recorded a 5.9% drop, which followed the 48.9% decline tallied in February and marked the 1th consecutive fall in annual prices. That said, the print represented a 37.7% gain over the USD 42.4 per barrel tallied on 13 January, when Cabinda oil recorded the lowest price since 9. Oil Prices USD per barrel Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Note: Price of the n Cabinda oil in USD per barrel. Source: Thomson Reuters. While oil prices have been on a free fall since July of last year, a slight pickup was recorded in recent weeks. On April, the price of s Cabinda oil reached USD per barrel, which was 11.65% higher than in the same day of the previous month, but 47.3% weaker than in the same day of the previous year. Nevertheless, a stronger U.S. dollar and anticipations that Iran will ship more oil in the already flooded market once a full deal is reached with the West continues to weigh on oil prices. The n government heavily relies on oil revenues because oil accounts for 97% of the country s exports. Plunging oil prices, which have left the government limited space for fiscal consolidation, have also pushed the local currency to all-time lows. s oil production reached 1.76 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March, which was an improvement over the 1.75 mbpd recorded in the previous month. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect oil production to reach 1.82 million barrels per day this year. In 16, the panel sees crude output to inch up to 1.95 barrels per day. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3

4 Economic Indicators Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) 3,84 4,982 5,464 6,3 6,388 6,337 6,546 6,911 7,444 8,54 GDP (USD bn) GDP (AOA bn) 7,662 1,416 11,975 13,777 15,328 17,212 19,399 21,832 24,538 27,654 Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP Oil, annual var. in %) Private Consumption (annual var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (annual variation of M2 in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) BNA Basic Reference Rate (%, eop) Exchange Rate (AOA per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (AOA per USD, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account Balance (USD bn) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Economic Climate Indicator (3-point moving avg) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) BNA Basic Reference Rate (%, eop) Exchange Rate (AOA per USD, eop) Trade Balance (USD bn) Exports (USD bn) Imports (USD bn) Exports (annual variation in %) Imports (annual variation in %) Monthly Data Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Oil Production (mn barrels per day, aop) Cabinda Oil Price (USD per barrel, aop) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Exchange Rate (AOA per USD, eop) FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 4

5 Real Sector GDP and Fiscal Balance GDP and Fiscal Balance Real GDP variation in % Fiscal Balance % of GDP Individual Forecasts BMI Research BNP Paribas BPI Byblos Bank Group Capital Economics EIU Euler Hermes Frontier Strategy Group JPMorgan Novo Banco Oxford Economics Standard Chartered Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Additional Forecasts Government (Apr. 15) IMF (Apr. 15) World Bank (Jan. 15) Real GDP -19 var. in % Real GDP evolution of fcst World Fiscal Balance % of GDP Fiscal Balance evolution of fcst Notes and sources Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All real and monetary sector data are from the National Statistical Institute of (INE, Instituto Nacional de Estatìstica), the Ministry of Finance (MoF, Ministro das Finanças de ) and Thomson Reuters. Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: INE. 2 GDP, evolution of 15 and 16 forecasts during the last 17 months. 3 General government balance as % of GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MoF. 4 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 15 and 16 forecasts during the last 17 months FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5

6 Monetary Sector Inflation and Exchange Rate 5 Inflation - 19 in % Inflation 15 evolution of fcst Inflation Q1 12-Q4 16 in % 8 Inflation 16 evolution of fcst Inflation and Exchange Rate Exchange Rate AOA per USD 1 Exchange Rate AOA per USD 14 Maximum Consensus Minimum Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q Maximum Consensus Minimum Prices (CPI) variation in % Exchange Rate AOA per USD Individual Forecasts BMI Research BNP Paribas BPI Byblos Bank Group Capital Economics EIU Euler Hermes Frontier Strategy Group JPMorgan Novo Banco Oxford Economics Standard Chartered Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Additional Forecasts IMF (Apr. 15) Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Notes and sources Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Central Bank of (BNA, Banco Nacional de ). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 5 Inflation, annual average variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %. Source: INE. 6 Inflation, annual variation of quarterly average consumer price index (CPI). Source: INE. 7 Inflation, evolution of 15 forecasts during the last 17 months. 8 Inflation, evolution of 16 forecasts during the last 17 months. 9 Exchange Rate, AOA per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 1 Quarterly exchange rate, AOA per USD (eop). Source: Thomson Reuters. 11 Current account balance as % of GDP. 12 Trade Balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. 13 International reserves, months of imports. 14 Current account balance as % of GDP, evolution of 15 and 16 forecasts during the last 17 months. 15 Exports, annual variation in %. 16 International reserves in USD bn, evolution of 15 and 16 forecasts during the last 17 months. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 6

7 External Sector Current Account, Trade and International Reserves Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves % of GDP USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts BMI Research BNP Paribas BPI Byblos Bank Group Capital Economics EIU Euler Hermes Frontier Strategy Group JPMorgan Novo Banco Oxford Economics Standard Chartered Summary Minimum Maximum Median Consensus History 3 days ago days ago days ago Current Account % of GDP 12 Trade Balance USD billion 13 Int. Reserves months of imports 3 75 Trade Balance Imports Exports Current Account evol. of fcst 15 Exports variation in % 16 Int. Reserves (USD bn) evol. of fcst FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 7

8 Fact Sheet General Data Official name: Republic of Capital: Luanda (5.1m) Other cities: Huambo (1.1m) Lobito (.8m) Area (km2): 1,246,7 Population (million, 14 est.): 24.4 Population density (per km2, 14): 19.6 Population growth rate (%, 14 est.): 2.8 Life expectancy (years, 14 est.): 55.3 Illiteracy rate (%, 11): 29.6 Language: Portuguese, Bantu Measures: Metric system Time: GMT+1 in the Region Population %-share in Sub-Saharan Africa Other 34.4% South Africa 8.4% DR Congo 12.3% 3.8% Nigeria 27.% Ethiopia 14.1% GDP %-share in Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia 3.6% Kenya 4.3% South Africa 25.4% Other 16.7% 11.1% Nigeria 38.9% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (13) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants): 1. Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 61.9 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 19.1 Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): Energy (12) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,939 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 37 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h): 5.5 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h): 4.8 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,832 Economic Structure GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % 4 Other Industry 4 Services Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 118 CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 31.6 Transportation (13) Airports: 31 Railways (km): 2,764 Roadways (km): 51,429 Waterways (km): 1,3 Chief Ports: Cabinda, Lobito, Luanda, Namibe Trade Structure Agriculture Manufacturing Primary markets share in % Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Political Data President: José Eduardo dos Santos Last elections: 31 August 12 Next elections: 17 Central Bank Governor: José Pedro de Morais Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Ba2 Negative S&P: B+ Stable Fitch Ratings: BB- Negative India 8.9% Other 14.9% Exports China 46.% Other 2.5% U.S.A. 12.6% Other EU % Portugal 5.% U.S.A. Other 9.2% 7.1% South Africa 5.1% Brazil 6.3% Korea 6.1% China 19.6% Primary products share in % Imports Other Asia ex-japan 8.5% Other EU % Portugal 19.9% Strengths Rich in natural resources Major oil producer Weaknesses Vulnerable to oil price volatility Fragile banking sector Exports Ores & Metals 6.6% Food 23.9% Imports Other 16.9% Mineral Fuels 97.5% Manufact. Products 52.7% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 8

9 Notes and Statements Notes PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: G7 (Group of Seven, 7 countries): Canada, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; France, Germany and Italy are also Euro area countries. Euro area (19 countries): Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Nordic Economies (5 countries): Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Iceland. Finland is also a Euro area member. Eastern Europe (14 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members. MENA (Middle East and North Africa, 16 countries): Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. Asia-Pacific (17 countries): Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Latin America (23 countries): Argentina, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and Venezuela. Sub-Saharan Africa (13 countries):, Botswana, Cote d Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. Additional Countries: Switzerland. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 15 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Sub-Saharan Africa is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 657, E-81 Barcelona, Spain info@focus-economics.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Sub-Saharan Africa ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 9

10 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1,6 unique indicators in 17 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator covered. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. WHY CHOOSE REDUCE RISK SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. INDICATORS INCLUDED EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate Asia/Pacific Central America & Caribbean Eastern Europe Euro Area Latin America Major Economies Middle East & North Africa Nordic Economies Sub-Saharan Africa REGIONS & COUNTRIES COVERED Standard Regional Publications Includes forecasts for Brunei, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia & New Zealand Includes forecasts for Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and Tobago Includes forecasts for Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey & Ukraine Includes forecasts for Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain Includes forecasts for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela Includes forecasts for G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany & Italy) and overview of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland Includes forecasts for Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates Includes forecasts for Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden and Iceland Includes forecasts for, Botswana, Cote d Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. FocusEconomics Gran Via 657, 81, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com