CONSENSUS FORECAST. Kazakhstan July Contributors KAZAKHSTAN 2 CALENDAR 16 NOTES 18

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1 CONSENSUS FORECAST July 15 KAZAKHSTAN CALENDAR 1 NOTES 1 PUBLICATION DATE 7 July 15 FORECASTS COLLECTED 3 June - July 15 INFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including July 15 NEXT EDITION August 15 Contributors ARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist ARMANDO CICCARELLI Head of Research RICARDO ACEVES Senior Economist RICARD TORNÉ Senior Economist OLGA COSCODAN Economist CARL KELLY Economist TERESA KERSTING Economist DIRINA MANÇELLARI Economist ANGELA BOUZANIS Economist ROBERT HILL Economist ERIC DENIS Economist MIRIAM DOWD Editor

2 July 15 LONG-TERM TRENDS 3-year averages Population (million): GDP (USD bn): 5 1 GDP per capita (USD): 1,1 11,5 13,7 GDP growth (%):..9.5 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): Public Debt (% of GDP) Inflation (%): Current Account (% of GDP): External Debt (% of GDP): Outlook deteriorates Lackluster GDP growth in Q1 resulted from a slowdown in the agricultural and services sectors. Conversely, the industrial sector, buttressed by an increase in both the manufacturing and construction sectors, showed a notable improvement in Q1. Although the recession in Russia deepened in Q, more recent data suggest that the Kazakh economy was more resilient at the outset of Q. The short-term economic outlook, however, remains weak. The worsening of the crisis in Russia, together with elevated perception of political risk and uncertainty over monetary and exchange rate policies, are likely to dampen bank lending and investment in the second half of the year. The government s plan aimed at improving the country s business and investment climate is expected to ramp up economic growth in the long run. However, the current recession in Russia and oil prices that are lower than a year ago will weigh on the country s investment and export revenues this year. FocusEconomics panelists expect the economy to expand 1.% in 15, which is down. percentage points from last month s forecast. For 1, our panel of experts sees economic growth picking up to.9%. Inflationary pressures are fading. Inflation fell from.3% in May to 3.9% in June, which marked the lowest level in over a decade. The FocusEconomics panel expects inflation to end 15 at 5.9%, which is down. percentage points from last month s forecasts. For 1, the panel expects inflation of.3%. Ricardo Aceves Senior Economist GDP variation in % 9.. % 3.. Q 11 Q 1 Q 13 Q 1 Q 15 Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %. Source: Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. REAL SECTOR Economic growth slows down in Q1 s economy weakened at the beginning of the year. GDP expanded.3% annually in the first quarter of 15, which marked a slowdown over the 3.% increase registered in the same quarter last year. reports growth at an accumulated basis and in the full year 1 overall economic growth was.3% (13: +. year-on-year). The print reflected that the agricultural sector grew.9% annually in Q1 15, which was below the 3.5% increase observed in Q1 1. In addition, services lost strength and expanded 3.7% year-on-year in Q1 15 (Q1 1: +5.% yoy). Conversely, the industrial sector improved and increased 1.1% in Q1 15, which contrasted the 1.1% contraction registered in the same quarter last year. Growth in the industrial sector bounced back in the first three months of this year, stemming from a notable increase in the manufacturing sector and growth in construction. President Nursultan Nazarbayev was inaugurated for another new five-year term on 3 April, following his landslide victory in the April presidential elections. President Nazarbayev pledged to use this new term to carry out economic reforms in order to modernize the economy, propel economic growth and improve transparency and accountability in the public sector. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

3 July 15 On May, Nazarbayev presented a 1-step program in which he outlines the reforms that he wants to implement in order to deliver the five-pillared manifesto promises he pledged during his campaign. The Ministry of National Economy foresees economic growth of 1.5% in 15, under a baseline scenario in which the Ministry projects the price-perbarrel of oil to average USD 5. Under a more optimistic scenario, in which the Ministry projects oil prices to average USD per barrel, government authorities expect the economy to increase.%. Analysts see s economy rising 1.% in 15. This month s projection is down. percentage points from last month s estimate. For 1, the panel of analysts expect the economy to pick up pace and expand.9%. Industrial Production annual variation in %.. %. -. Year-on-year Annual average -. May-13 Nov-13 May-1 Nov-1 May-15 Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production index in %. Source: Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK) and FocusEconomics calculations. REAL SECTOR Industrial production rebounds in May s industrial output rebounded in May and increased 1.1% over the same month last year. The reading bounced back from the.% contraction registered in April and marked the fastest pace of expansion in the last three months. The monthly expansion stemmed from a notable increase in mining and quarrying. Conversely, manufacturing output contracted over the previous month, as well as electricity generation and water supply. The overall trend remained stable in May. The annual average growth in industrial production remained unchanged at April s.3% in May. A group of analysts surveyed by FocusEconomics expect that industrial production will contract.3% in 15, which is up.5 percentage points from last month s survey. For 1, the panel sees that industrial production will rebound and expand 1.7%. Inflation Consumer Price Index MONETARY SECTOR Inflation falls to lowest level in over a decade In June, consumer prices fell.1% over the previous month, which contrasted the.3% increase observed in May. June s drop, which was the first one since August, reflected lower prices for food, housing, energy and education. Inflation fell from.3% in May to 3.9% in June, which marked the lowest level in 1 years. 1. %.5. Month-on-month (left scale) Year-on-year (right scale) Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-1 Dec-1 Jun-15 Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year variation in consumer price index in %. Source: Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK).. % 5.. As inflationary pressures are fading, the inflation trend continues the downward trajectory in place since December 1. Annual average inflation fell from.5% in May to.3% in June. The National Bank of expects that, notwithstanding the two scenarios projected by the Ministry of National Economy, inflation will remain within its target range of between.% and.% in 15. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to end 15 at 5.9%, which is down. percentage points over the previous month s forecast. At the end of 1, the Central Banks expects inflation to rise to.3%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 3

4 Economic Indicators 1-19 July 15 Annual Data Real Sector Population (million) GDP per capita (USD) 9, 11,13 11,9 13,31 1,175 1,3 11,39 1,137 13, 1, GDP (USD bn) GDP per capita (EUR),715,579 9,7 9, 1, 1,9 1,7 11,19 11,7 1,379 GDP (EUR bn) GDP (KZT bn) 1,1 7,57 3,37 35,75 3,71 1,3 5,1 9,517 5,91, Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. in %) Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Private Consumption (annual var. in %) Government Consumption (annual var. in %) Fixed Investment (annual var. in %) Industrial Production (annual var. in %) Unemployment (% of active population, aop) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) Public Debt (% of GDP) Monetary and Financial Sector Money (ann. var. of M in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop) Refinancing Rate (%, eop) Stock Market (BET variation in %) Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, aop) Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, aop) External Sector Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Current Account (USD bn) Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) Merchandise Exports (USD bn) Merchandise Imports (USD bn) Merchandise Exports (annual variation in %) Merchandise Imports (annual variation in %) International Reserves (USD bn) International Reserves (months of imports) External Debt (USD bn) External Debt (% of GDP) Quarterly Data Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 15 Q 15 Q3 15 Q 15 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) Refinancing Rate (%, eop) Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) Monthly Data Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Industrial Production (annual variation in %) Retail Sales (annual variation in %) Unemployment (% of active population) Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) Exchange Rate (KZT per USD, eop) Exchange Rate (KZT per EUR, eop) FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

5 Real Sector Gross Domestic Product July 15 1 Real GDP -19 var. in % Real GDP Q1 1-Q 1 var. in % Real GDP growth in % World GDP 15 evolution of forecasts % Maximum Consensus Minimum - 5 GDP 15 Panelist Distribution World - Q1 1 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q1 1 GDP 1 evolution of forecasts Maximum Consensus Minimum Individual Forecasts 15 1 BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse.3. Danske Bank 1. - Deutsche Bank.1. Economic Research Institute EIU. 1.7 Frontier Strategy Group. 1. Halyk Finance.. HSBC. 3.3 ING..3 JPMorgan 1.5. Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research - - Renaissance Capital Sberbank 1.. UBS Visor Capital 1. - VTB Capital WIIW. 3.5 Minimum. 1. Maximum.5.3 Median Consensus days ago days ago days ago.5 3. Additional Forecasts Government (June 15) IMF (Apr. 15). 3. ADB (Mar. 15) % % % < > 5. Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 GDP, real annual variation in %. Quarterly GDP (seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %. 3 GDP, evolution of 15 forecasts during the last 1 months. GDP, evolution of 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 5 GDP, panelist distribution of 15 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 5

6 Real Sector Additional forecasts July 15 Consumption and Investment Consumption Investment variation in % variation in % Individual Forecasts BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute EIU Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC ING JPMorgan Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital Sberbank UBS Visor Capital VTB Capital WIIW Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago...1. days ago days ago Consumption variation in % Consumption evolution of fcst Investment variation in % Investment evol. of forecasts 1 Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. Private consumption, annual variation in %. 7 Private consumption, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. 9 Gross fixed investment, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

7 Real Sector Additional forecasts July 15 Industry and Unemployment 1 Industry variation in % Industry Unemployment variation in % % of active pop. Individual Forecasts BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute EIU Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC ING JPMorgan Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital Sberbank UBS Visor Capital VTB Capital WIIW Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago days ago days ago Industry evol. of forecasts Unemployment % of active pop Unemployment evol. of forecasts Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 Industrial production, annual variation in %. 11 Industrial production, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 1 Unemployment, % of active population. 13 Unemployment, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 7

8 July 15 Real Sector Additional forecasts Fiscal Balance and Public Debt Fiscal Balance Public Debt % of GDP % of GDP Individual Forecasts BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute EIU Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC ING JPMorgan Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital Sberbank UBS Visor Capital VTB Capital WIIW Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago days ago days ago Fiscal Balance % of GDP Fiscal Balance evol. of forecasts Public Debt % of GDP Public Debt evol. of forecasts Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All real sector data are from the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of (MFRK) and the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 General government balance as % of GDP. Source: MFRK. 15 General government balance as % of GDP, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 1 Public debt as % of GDP. Source: SARK. 17 Public debt as % of GDP, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 1 1 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

9 Monetary Sector Inflation July 15 1 Inflation - 19 in % Inflation 15 evolution of fcst 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 Inflation 15 Panelist Distribution 5% 19 Inflation Q1 1-Q 1 in % 1 Q1 1 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q1 1 1 Inflation 1 evolution of fcst 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum Inflation annual variation of consumer price index in % Individual Forecasts 15 1 BMI Research - - Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse.5 5. Danske Bank - - Deutsche Bank. 7. Economic Research Institute. 7. EIU.7 5. Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC - - ING JPMorgan. 7.7 Oxford Economics 5.. Raiffeisen Research - - Renaissance Capital. 7.5 Sberbank UBS Visor Capital 5. - VTB Capital WIIW 5.. Minimum Maximum. 7.9 Median 5.9. Consensus days ago.5. days ago..5 9 days ago.5.9 Additional Forecasts Central Bank (June 15) IMF (Apr. 15) ADB (Mar. 15).. % 3% % 1% % < > 1. Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 Inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). 19 Quarterly inflation, annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop). Inflation, evolution of 15 forecasts during the last 1 months. 1 Inflation, evolution of 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. Inflation, panelist distribution of 15 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 9

10 Monetary Sector Interest Rate July 15 3 Interest Rate - 19 in % Int. Rate 15 evolution of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum Interest Rate Q1 1-Q 1 in % 1 1 Int. Rate 1 evolution of fcst 1 Q1 1 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q1 1 Maximum Consensus Minimum Interest Rate Refinancing Rate Individual Forecasts 15 1 BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank - - Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute - - EIU - - Frontier Strategy Group - - Halyk Finance - - HSBC ING JPMorgan - - Oxford Economics - - Raiffeisen Research - - Renaissance Capital 5.5. Sberbank - - UBS Visor Capital - - VTB Capital - - WIIW - - Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago.5. days ago days ago Interest Rate 15 Panelist Distribution % % % % % < > 11. Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from the National Bank of (NBK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 3 Interest rate, Refinancing Rate in % (eop). Quarterly interest rate, Refinancing Rate in % (eop). 5 Interest rate, evolution of 15 forecasts during the last 1 months. Interest rate, evolution of 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 7 Interest rate, panelist distribution of 15 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 1

11 Monetary Sector Exchange Rate July 15 Exchange Rate KZT per USD KZT per USD 15 evol. of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 9 Exchange Rate KZT per USD Q1 1 Q1 13 Q1 1 Q1 15 Q KZT per USD 1 evol. of fcst Maximum Consensus Minimum 1 Exchange Rate KZT per USD Individual Forecasts 15 1 BMI Research 5 15 Citigroup Global Mkts 3 Credit Suisse 5 Danske Bank Deutsche Bank - - Economic Research Institute 17 1 EIU Frontier Strategy Group - - Halyk Finance HSBC 5 5 ING 19 JPMorgan 3 3 Oxford Economics 3 Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital 5 Sberbank UBS 5 5 Visor Capital - - VTB Capital WIIW 19 Minimum 17 1 Maximum Median 5 Consensus 15 3 days ago 15 days ago 5 9 days ago KZT per USD 15 Panelist Distribution % 5% % 3% % 1% % < > Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All monetary sector data are from Thomson Reuters. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. Exchange rate, KZT per USD (eop). 9 Quarterly exchange rate, KZT per USD (eop). 3 Exchange rate, evolution of 15 forecast during the last 1 months. 31 Exchange rate, evolution of 1 forecast during the last 1 months. 3 Exchange rate, panelist distribution of 15 forecasts. Concentration of panelists in forecast interval in %. Higher columns with darker colors represent a larger number of panelists. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 11

12 External Sector Current Account and Trade Balance July 15 Current Account and Trade Balance Current Account Trade Balance % of GDP USD bn Individual Forecasts BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute EIU Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC ING JPMorgan Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital Sberbank UBS Visor Capital VTB Capital WIIW Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago days ago days ago Current Account % of GDP Current Account evol. of fcst Trade Balance USD bn 1 75 Trade Balance Imports Exports Trade Balance evol. of forecasts 3 5 Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the National Bank of (NBK) and the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 33 Current account balance, as % of GDP. Source: NBK 3 Current account balance, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 35 Trade balance, exports and imports, in USD. Rosstat and Ministry of Economic Development. Source: SARK. 3 Trade balance, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 1

13 External Sector Exports and Imports July 15 Exports and Imports Exports Imports USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute EIU Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC ING JPMorgan Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital Sberbank UBS Visor Capital VTB Capital WIIW Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago days ago days ago Exports variation in % Exports evolution of fcst Imports variation in % Imports evol. of forecasts Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of (SARK). Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 37 Exports, annual variation in %. 3 Exports, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 39 Imports, annual variation in %. Imports, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 35 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 13

14 External Sector Additional forecasts July 15 International Reserves and External Debt Int. Reserves External Debt USD bn USD bn Individual Forecasts BMI Research Citigroup Global Mkts Credit Suisse Danske Bank Deutsche Bank Economic Research Institute EIU Frontier Strategy Group Halyk Finance HSBC ING JPMorgan Oxford Economics Raiffeisen Research Renaissance Capital Sberbank UBS Visor Capital VTB Capital WIIW Minimum Maximum Median Consensus days ago days ago days ago Int. Reserves months of imports Int. Reserves evolution of fcst External Debt % of GDP External Debt evol. of forecasts Long-term chart period from to 19 unless otherwise stated. All external sector data are from the National Bank of (NBK). Forecasts are based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. 1 International reserves, months of imports. International reserves, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months. 3 External debt as % of GDP. External debt, evolution of 15 and 1 forecasts during the last 1 months FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 1

15 FOCUSECONOMICS July 15 Fact Sheet General Data Official name: Republic of Capital: Astana (.7m) Other cities: Alma-Ata (1.m) Chimkent (.9m) Area (km):,7,9 Population (million, 1 est.): 17. Population density (per km, 1):. Population growth rate (%, 1 est.): 1. Life expectancy (years, 1 est.): 7. Illiteracy rate (%, 11):.3 Language: Kazakh, Russian Measures: Metric System Time: GMT+7 in the Region Population %-share in Other 3.% Poland 7.9% Ukraine.9% 3.% Turkey 15.9% Russia 9.7% GDP %-share in Czech Republic.1% Other.7% Poland 1.9% Turkey 15.9%.% Russia.% Economic Infrastructure Telecommunication (13) Telephones - main lines (per 1 inhabitants):.7 Telephones - mobile cellular (per 1 inhabit.): 11 Internet Users (per 1 inhabitants): 5. Broadband Subscriptions (per 1 inhabitants): 11. Energy (1) Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu):,1 Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu):,79 Electricity Generation (billion kw-h):.1 Electricity Consumption (billion kw-h):.3 Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1, Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 51 CO Emmissions (million metric tons): Economic Structure 1 GDP by Sector share in % GDP by Expenditure share in % Agriculture Manufacturing Other Industry Services Net Exports Investment Government Consumption Private Consumption Transportation (13) Airports: 9 Railways (km): 15,333 Roadways (km): 97,1 Waterways (km):, Chief Ports: Aqtau (Shevchenko), Atyrau (Gur'yev) Trade Structure Primary markets share in % Political Data President Nursultan Nazarbayev Last elections: April 15 Next elections: April Central Bank Governor: Kairat Kelimbetov Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings Agency Rating Outlook Moody s: Baa Stable S&P: BBB Negative Fitch Ratings: BBB+ Stable Russia.5% Other.% China 3.3% Exports Other EU-7.1% Italy 7.1% Other 3.1% France 9.9% Germany.% Other.9% Russia 35.7% Primary products share in % Imports Other EU % Other.3% Germany 5.1% China 5.% Strengths Weaknesses Abundant in natural resources, particularly oil Healthy public finances Regional instability Expected increase in oil production capacity over the next decade Interventionist and protectionist economic policy Highly dependent on global commodities prices Banking sector crisis not yet resolved Mineral Fuels 7.1% Exports Manufact. Products 1.% Ores & Metals 1.% Mineral Fuels 11.3% Food 9.7% Imports Manufact. Products 7.7% FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 15

16 Calendar July 15 Economic Release Calendar Date Country Event 7 July Czech Republic May Industrial Production 7 July Estonia June Consumer Prices 7 July Poland Central Bank Meeting 7 July Romania May Industrial Production 7 July Ukraine June Consumer Prices 7 July Macedonia June Consumer Prices July Bulgaria April Industrial Production July Hungary June Consumer Prices July Latvia June Consumer Prices July Turkey May Industrial Production 9 July Czech Republic June Consumer Prices 9 July Lithuania June Consumer Prices 9 July Serbia Central Bank Meeting 1 July Romania June Consumer Prices 1 July Russia Q 15 Consumer Confidence (**) 1 July Slovakia May Industrial Production 1 July Slovenia May Industrial Production 1 July Turkey May Balance of Payments 1 July Belarus June Consumer Prices 13 July Poland June Consumer Prices (**) 13 July Serbia June Consumer Prices 13 July Kosovo June Consumer Prices 15 July Croatia June Consumer Prices 15 July Russia June Industrial Production (**) 15 July June Industrial Production 1 July Slovakia June Consumer Prices (**) 17 July Belarus June Industrial Production July Poland July Business Confidence (**) July Poland June Industrial Production (**) 1 July Hungary Central Bank Meeting 1 July Lithuania June Industrial Production July Russia June Merchandise Trade (**) July Ukraine June Industrial Production 3 July Turkey Central Bank Meeting 3 July Turkey July Consumer Confidence July Poland June Retail Sales (**) 5 July Hungary July GKI-Erste Economic Sentiment Index (**) 7 July Turkey July Business Confidence 9 July Croatia June Industrial Production 9 July Macedonia July Industrial Production 3 July Bulgaria June Consumer Prices 3 July Latvia Q 15 National Accounts (*) 3 July Lithuania Q 15 National Accounts (*) (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 1

17 July 15 Economic Release Calendar Date Country Event 3 July Ukraine Central Bank Meeting 31 July Estonia June Industrial Production 31 July Russia Central Bank Meeting 31 July Slovenia July Consumer Prices 31 July Serbia June Industrial Production 31 July June Merchandise Trade 31 July Kosovo June Merchandise Trade 1 August Czech Republic July Markit Manufacturing PMI 1 August July Consumer Prices August Poland July Markit Manufacturing PMI 3 August Latvia June Industrial Production 3 August Russia July Markit Manufacturing PMI 3 August Turkey July Markit PMI 3 August Turkey July Consumer Prices (*) Preliminary estimate. (**) Approximate date. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 17

18 Notes July 15 Notes and Statements PUBLICATION NOTE Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual figures due to different forecast panels. The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries: Central and (11 countries): Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania; Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia are also Euro area members. South- (1 countries): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey; Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania are also Central and members; Cyprus and Greece are also Euro area members. Balkans (7 countries): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. CIS countries (1 countries): Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan and Ukraine are not members of CIS, but are included for reasons of geography and similarity in economic structure. Central Asia (5 countries):, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Caucasus (3 countries): Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, inflation and exchange rates. COPYRIGHT NOTE Copyright 15 FocusEconomics S.L. Duplication, reproduction, transmission, publication or redistribution in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without prior written consent of FocusEconomics S.L. is strictly prohibited. Please cite source when quoting. All rights reserved under International Copyright Conventions. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast is a monthly publication of FocusEconomics. Communications to the Editor or FocusEconomics in general should be addressed as follows: FocusEconomics S.L. Gran Via 57, E-1 Barcelona, Spain info@focus-economics.com DISCLOSURE STATEMENT The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast ( Forecast ) is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable. FocusEconomics and the participating panelists ( Information Providers ) do not guarantee that the information supplied in the Forecast is accurate, complete or timely. The Information Providers do not make any warranties with regard to the results obtained from the Forecast. The Information Providers are not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for any injuries or damages resulting from the use of this information, including incidental and consequential damages. Recipients should not regard the Forecast as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgement. The recommendations made in the Forecast may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. The Forecast has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation of any transaction or an offer to enter into any transaction. Any opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice and the Information Providers are under no obligation to update the information contained herein. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast 1

19 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast reports cover economic forecasts for over 1, unique indicators in 17 countries. Every monthly report includes the Consensus Forecast for each indicator. The Consensus Forecast, based on an average of the forecasts provided by the most reputable economic research authorities in the world, is the one number you can rely on to make important business decisions. REDUCE RISK WHY CHOOSE FOCUSECONOMICS Instantly diversify your intelligence portfolio with dozens of forecasts. SAVE TIME OPTIMIZE RESEARCH ANALYZE TRENDS ANTICIPATE DEVELOPMENTS Get just the information you need, all in one place. Streamline research efforts by utilizing our comprehensive survey of leading economists. Prepare for what may occur next by studying how forecasts have evolved over time. Gain key insight into political and economic developments in a country or region to assess the potential impact on business prospects. REAL SECTOR GDP per capita Economic Growth Consumption Investment Industrial Production Unemployment Rate Fiscal Balance Public Debt ASEAN Countries East & South Asia Central America & Caribbean Latin America Central & CIS Countries South- Major Economies Euro Area Nordic Economies Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa KEY INDICATORS INCLUDE EXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports International Reserves External Debt 17 COUNTRIES IN 1 REGIONS MONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money Inflation Rate Policy Interest Rate Exchange Rate Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand & Vietnam; Australia, New Zealand Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka & Taiwan; Australia, New Zealand Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico & Trinidad and Tobago Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia & Slovenia Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus,, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan; Georgia, Turkmenistan, Ukraine Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia & Turkey G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom & United States), plus an overview of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India & China); Switzerland Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Spain Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden & Iceland Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates & Yemen Angola, Botswana, Cote d Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda & Zambia FocusEconomics Gran Via 57, 1, Barcelona, Spain subscribers@focus-economics.com