Global Consumer Confidence

Transcription

1 Global Consumer Confidence The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen 4TH QUARTER 2017 RESULTS CONTENTS Global Highlights Asia-Pacific Africa and the Middle East Latin America North America Europe

2 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Global Highlights Key Insights The TCB Global CCI score of 105 in Q4 of 2017 is nearly the highest on record and 4 points higher than the end of Globally, 51 markets finished 2017 with higher confidence than the end of In 46 of those markets, the gain was larger than 2 points, and it was larger than 5 points in 35 markets. Among the world s ten largest economies: Four experienced gains in confidence larger than five points in 2017: China, Japan, France, and Italy. Only three saw declines in confidence larger than five points in 2017: India, the UK, and the US. However, India and the US remain among the most confident markets in the world. Global consumer confidence finished 2017 just below a record high, with robust gains across the world The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey (the TCB Global CCS ) shows that, despite high levels of political and economic change around the world, consumer confidence has continued to increase steadily. The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Index (the TCB Global CCI ) reached an all-time high in Q3 of 2017 and maintained the same level in Q4. Moreover, gains in confidence throughout 2017 were wide-spread around the world, confined neither to select regions or economies. In fact, some of the largest gains in confidence came from regions like Europe and Latin America, which recently had been among the least-confident. On the other hand, North America, which typically has the highest levels of confidence was the only region that did not gain confidence in For consumer-facing businesses, then, opportunities look very strong by historical standards. In many regions of the world, however, that strength should not be taken for granted, as several sources of uncertainty could change these trends heading into In Europe, the conclusion of Brexit negotiations is likely to have a large impact on confidence across the region, while much of the recent gains in the Middle East coincide with a run-up in oil prices, which might not last. And, in the US, recent tax legislation is likely to begin impacting consumer sentiment in conditions, and more, will determine whether the gains in confidence throughout 2017 continue into 2018 or start to reverse. More recently, new tariffs on imports threaten to start a trade war. The chart below shows the level of the index in Q4 2017, and the table on page 3 reports the results on a country-by-country basis compared to Q GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX, Q4 2017: 105 Norway 86 Canada 101 US 118 Mexico Venezuela 57 Argentina 88 Brazil 85 Spain 93 Sweden 97 UK 96 Germany 103 France 79 Italy 68 Ukraine 61 South Africa 80 Kazakhstan 81 Russia 69 China 114 South Korea Saudi Arabia India ThailandPhilippines Indonesia 125 Australia 91 New Zealand THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

3 Global Consumer Confidence Index by Region and Country Q Q Change Q Q Change Global Consumer Confidence Index Asia-Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Malaysia New Zealand Philippines Singapore South Korea 58 2 Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Africa & The Middle East Egypt Morocco Pakistan Saudi Arabia South Africa UAE Latin America Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica Mexico Peru Venezuela North America Canada US Europe Austria Belarus 63-3 Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece 0 Hungary Ireland Israel Italy Kazakhstan Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey UK Ukraine THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

4 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Global Ranking Country Rank Q Country Rank Q Philippines India Indonesia US UAE Denmark Vietnam China Pakistan Turkey Thailand Hong Kong New Zealand Czech Republic Peru Poland Ireland Israel Germany Austria Canada Netherlands Colombia Saudi Arabia Switzerland Chile Sweden UK Singapore Malaysia Spain Australia Romania Bulgaria Argentina Mexico Norway Costa Rica Slovakia Belgium Brazil Japan Portugal Egypt Slovenia Taiwan Estonia Kazakhstan Morocco South Africa Finland France Lithuania Hungary Croatia Latvia Serbia Russia Italy Ukraine Belarus 61 South Korea 62 Greece 63 Venezuela THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

5 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Asia-Pacific Confidence in Asia-Pacific was consistently high in 2017 The TCB Global CCI ended 2017 in the Asia-Pacific region second only to North America, but many countries have higher confidence scores than the US and Canada. In fact, in Q4, the three markets with the highest confidence scores in the world Philippines, India, and Indonesia could be found in Asia-Pacific. Though confidence in Asia-Pacific is currently high compared to other regions, it is not unusually high by historical standards. Confidence has tended to always be high for several countries in this region over the past decade, likely due to the rapid and consistent economic growth experienced in many markets. However, throughout 2017, confidence was generally on the rise across the region. Confidence ended 2017 higher than 2016 in 11 of 14 markets. Among the three that declined, only one, India, declined by more than two points. And, among the 11 markets where confidence rose, it rose by more than 2 points in 10. A region that has been considered important for long-term growth of consumer-facing businesses for quite some time now continues to stand out with high levels of confidence. Among the largest economies in the region, there is substantial variation in confidence, however. The emerging markets of India and China are among the most confident economies in the region, while the advanced markets of South Korea, Japan, and Australia are well below the average level of confidence. This underscores a general tradeoff consumer-facing businesses need to consider when prioritizing investment opportunities across advanced and emerging markets. Overall, the TCB Global CCI in Asia-Pacific held steady throughout It ended Q4 at 114, down 1 point from 115 in Q3 but equal to the level at the end of While there has been little movement in the underlying drivers of consumer confidence throughout 2017, perceptions of the economy strengthened in Q4. Compared to Q3, fewer respondents thought their country was in a recession (56%, down from 59%). Work/life balance is now the most common concern in the region, with 16% of respondents indicating it was their biggest concern over the next 6 months in Q4. Concerns over job security declined in Q4; 14% of respondents indicated it was their biggest concern over the next 6 months, down from 16% in Q3. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q4 2017: 114 GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR ASIA-PACIFIC, Q4 2017: 114 China 114 South Korea Japan 84 India 130 Hong KongTaiwan Vietnam Philippines Thailand 111 Malaysia 94 Singapore 94 Indonesia 125 Australia New Zealand THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

6 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Africa and the Middle East BACK TO CONTENTS PAGE Confidence rose significantly in Africa and the Middle East in 2017 The TCB Global CCI rose significantly across Africa and the Middle East throughout 2017, but it remains below the global average. Confidence ended 2017 higher than 2016 in five of six markets, with gains ranging from five to twenty points. It declined in only one market: Morocco, and it currently sits at an all-time high in Pakistan. In many ways, then, opportunity for consumer-facing businesses is relatively strong in the region. In Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, confidence rose in 2017, but it remains well below the peak values achieved in If it continues to recover even to the levels most recently seen in 2015, then the region as a whole will look that much more attractive to consumer-facing businesses. The gains in confidence throughout 2017 correspond with a rise in oil prices over the same time period, which is the result of the strong dependence on oil of most economies in the region. Business leaders tracking consumer confidence in the region should pay close attention to oil prices going into If oil prices start to decelerate or decline, then consumer confidence may follow. Overall, the TCB Global CCI in Africa and the Middle East finished Q4 at 92, up 3 points compared to Q3. Gains were wide spread, with five of six markets increasing in confidence between Q3 and Q4. Gains in confidence were driven by three major drivers: Perception of job prospects improved. The share of respondents who think job prospects will be good or excellent over the next 12 months rose from 38% in Q3 to 41% in Q4. Perception of personal finances also improved. In Q4, 13% of respondents thought their personal finances would be excellent over the next 12 months, up from 9% in Q3. It is a better time to buy goods and services now. The share of respondents who thought it was a bad or not so good time to buy the things they want and need declined from 64% in Q3 to 61% in Q4. Job security remains the most common concern in the region. In Q4, 18% of respondents said it was their biggest concern over the next 6 months, but that is down from 20% in 2017 Q2. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST, Q4 2017: 92 Morocco 81 Egypt 84 Saudi Arabia 99 UAE 118 Pakistan South Africa 80 6 THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

7 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Latin America Confidence rose in almost all Latin American countries in 2017 The TCB Global CCI experienced robust gains across nearly all of Latin America in 2017, making it an increasingly attractive region for consumer-facing businesses. Compared to the end of 2016, confidence rose by more than eight points in four different markets, and it ended 2017 at an all-time high in Peru. It declined in only two markets, and in each, the decline was less than one point. If these trends continue into 2018, the Latin American region will represent an even stronger opportunity for consumer-facing businesses. Despite robust gains experienced of late, Latin America remains one of the least confident regions in the world, nearly even with Europe. And, while much of the recent gains in confidence in Europe was driven by the region s largest economies, the same is not true in Latin America. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of confidence in Latin America is Brazil, the region s largest economy, where confidence remains well below the peak values experienced in early The political uncertainty experienced there over the past few years has taken its toll on consumer confidence. But, there are signs of recovery. After reaching a bottom in early 2016, confidence has gained more than 10 points. Heading into 2018, business leaders will be watching Brazil closely to see if the gains in confidence experienced throughout Latin America will boost the region s largest economy. Overall, the TCB Global CCI in Latin America remained relatively steady throughout 2017, finishing Q4 at 87, down 1 from 88 in Q3 but much higher than the end of Compared to Q3, the change in confidence was driven by: Perception of job prospects, which improved. The share of consumers who think job prospects will be good or excellent over the next 12 months rose from 28% in Q3 to 31% in Q4. Perception of personal finances, which worsened. The share of respondents who think their personal finances will be bad or not so good over the next 12 months rose from 34% in Q3 to 36% in Q4. The economy in general and job security were the two most common concerns in the region, with 18% and 17% of respondents, respectively, indicating those are their biggest concerns over the next 6 months. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR LATIN AMERICA, Q4 2017: 87 Mexico 88 Costa Rica 86 Colombia 100 Venezuela 57 Peru 104 Brazil 85 Argentina Chile 98 7 THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

8 Global Consumer Confidence Index: North America Confidence declined in 2017 but remains near all-time highs in North America Coming into 2017, the big uncertainty in North America was the impact of the American election on consumer confidence. TCB Global CCI in the US ended 2016 at an all-time high, but it remained uncertain whether the spike in confidence at the end of the year would persist throughout As it turns out, it mostly did. The index ended 2017 just below the high mark of 2016 Q4, still much higher than even before the financial crisis. The index also ended the year higher in Canada than it started, though the level remains below the historical peaks from Combined, the region ended 2017 with a Global Consumer Confidence Index score of 117. That is the highest score of any region, a title held by North America each of the past three quarters. Consumer sentiment remains exceptionally strong in the region, both by global and historic standards, despite the seemingly elevated levels of political uncertainty in the US. Compared to Q3, though, confidence did decline somewhat in both countries in Q4. Going into 2018, business leaders will be wondering whether that decline was the start of a new trend, and what impact the new tax legislation will have on confidence in the US. Overall, the TCB Global CCI for North America finished 2017 at 117, a slight decrease from last quarter (119) and from last year (120), though it remained very high by historical standards throughout all of Compared to the previous quarter, the main drivers of the decline in confidence were: In the US: concern over the affordability of goods and services. Only 14% of respondents thought it was an excellent time to buy the things they need (considering the cost of goods and their personal finances), compared to 17% the previous quarter. In Canada: perception of job prospects. 9% of respondents think job prospects will be bad in the next 12 months, up from 5% in Q3. In Canada: personal financial outlook. 36% of respondents think the state of their personal finances over the next 12 months is bad or not so good, up from 32% the previous quarter. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR NORTH AMERICA, Q4 2017: 117 Canada 101 US Note: The quarterly US data shown here are based on The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey and are included to enable country/regional comparisons. These data and methodology differ from the Consumer Confidence Survey and Consumer Confidence Index which are published monthly by The Conference Board. 8 THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

9 Global Consumer Confidence Index: Europe Confidence increased steadily in Europe throughout 2017 The TCB Global CCI has steadily risen across Europe throughout In 29 out of 34 markets, confidence ended 2017 higher than it ended Looking further back in time, four markets Austria, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Israel ended 2017 at an all-time high. Between the financial crisis that started a decade ago and the geopolitical uncertainty of the past several years, Europe, a region so vital to the global economy, has experienced plenty of uncertainty. But, there is evidence that stability is returning to the region s consumers, and consumer-facing businesses should monitor this progress for future investment opportunities in the region. Though the level of confidence can vary widely across Europe s diverse markets, a common trend among the largest economies in the region is ending 2017 at near historically high levels. In Germany, confidence is only 1 point below the high level established just two quarters ago, while confidence in France and Italy has not been higher since 2007 and 2010, respectively. The lone large economy in the region to lose confidence in 2017 was the UK. There, confidence peaked in 2016 Q3, immediately after the Brexit vote, but it has declined steadily since, back to levels not seen since the end of Of course, the ultimate resolution to the Brexit negotiations is likely to have a large impact on confidence and economic growth throughout the region. Overall, the TCB Global CCI in Europe remained at 87 in Q4 of 2017, up from 81 to end Though the overall score for the region is low by global standards, some of the largest economies Germany (103) and the UK (96) have relatively high levels of confidence. Moreover, the score of 87 for the region is high by historical standards, and confidence is broadly rising across the region. Stability is also increasing. Throughout 2017, there was very little movement in the drivers of confidence for the region. The largest movement came from a decline in concern over terrorism. In Q4, 10% of respondents indicated terrorism would be their largest concern over the next 6 months, down from 16% in Q2. Compared to other regions of the world, labor markets may be holding down confidence in Europe. A full 56% of respondents think job prospects will be either bad or not so good over the next 12 months, and concerns over job security are the most common in the region, surpassing terrorism in Q4. GLOBAL CONSUMER GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR INDEX EUROPE, FOR EUROPE, Q4 2017: Q : Ireland 103 Portugal 84 Spain 93 UK 96 Netherlands 101 Belgium 85 France 79 Norway 86 Denmark 116 Germany 103 Switzerland 99 Sweden 97 Poland 104 Czech Republic 104 Slovakia Austria Hungary Slovenia Croatia 73 Italy 68 Serbia 69 Greece Finland 80 Estonia 82 Latvia 73 Lithuania 79 Belarus Romania 90 Bulgaria 89 Ukraine 61 Turkey 112 Russia 69 Kazakhstan 81 9 THE CONFERENCE BOARD GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT Q RESULTS

10 About The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted in collaboration with Nielsen. It was conducted November 8 through November 23, 2017 and polled more than 32,000 online consumers in 64 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa and North America. The sample includes internet users who agreed to participate in this survey and has quotas based on age and sex for each country. It is weighted to be representative of internet consumers by country. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated. However, a probability sample of equivalent size would have a margin of error of ±0.6% at the global level. This survey is based only on the behavior of respondents with online access. Internet penetration rates vary by country. The Conference Board uses a minimum reporting standard of % internet penetration or an online population of 10 million for survey inclusion. The Nielsen China Consumer Confidence Index is sourced from a separate survey conducted by Nielsen China, which is based on a mixed methodology survey of more than 3,000 respondents in China. The Global Consumer Confidence Survey was established in About The Conference Board The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: to provide the world s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity, holding 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the USA. About Nielsen Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a global performance management company that provides a comprehensive understanding of what consumers Watch and Buy. Nielsen s Watch segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience measurement services across all devices where content video, audio and text is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry s only global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources, Nielsen provides its clients with both world-class measurement as well as analytics that help improve performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in over 100 countries that cover more than 90% of the world s population. For more information, visit THE CONFERENCE BOARD, INC. ( ) AMERICAS customer.service@conferenceboard.org ASIA service.ap@conferenceboard.org EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA brussels@conferenceboard.org THE COMMITTEE FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONFERENCE BOARD THE CONFERENCE BOARD OF CANADA Copyright 2018 The Conference Board, Inc. All rights reserved.